Economics Commons^™

Inflation And Inflation-Uncertainty In India: The Policy Implications Of The Relationship, Abdur Chowdhury

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

Purpose – Inflation and its related uncertainty can impose costs on real economic output in any economy. This paper aims to analyze the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in India.

Design/methodology/approach – The methodology uses a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model and Granger Causality test.

Findings – Initial estimates show the inflation rate to be a stationary process. The maximum likelihood estimates from the GARCH model reveal strong support for the presence of a positive relationship between the level of inflation and its uncertainty. The Granger causality results indicate a feedback between inflation and uncertainty.

Research limitations/implications – …

(Wp 2011-04) Inflation And Inflation-Uncertainty In India: The Policy Implications Of The Relationship, Abdur Chowdhury

Economics Working Papers

Inflation and its related uncertainty can impose costs on real economic output in any economy. This paper analyzes the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in India. Initial estimates show the inflation rate to be a stationary process. The maximum likelihood estimates from the GARCH model reveal strong support for the presence of a positive relationship between the level of inflation and its uncertainty. The Granger causality results indicate a feedback between inflation and uncertainty. With Granger causality running both ways, the Friedman-Ball and Cukierman-Meltzer hypotheses hold simultaneously in India. It provides strong support to the notion of an opportunistic …

Openness, Income-Tax Progressivity, And Inflation, Joseph P. Daniels, David D. Vanhoose

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

This paper considers a model of an open economy in which the degree of income-tax progressivity influences the interaction among openness, central bank independence, and the inflation rate. Our model suggests that an increase in the progressivity of the tax system induces a smaller response in real output to a change in the price level. This implies that increased income-tax progressivity reduces the equilibrium inflation rate and that the effect of increased income-tax progressivity on inflation is smaller when the central bank places a higher weight on inflation or when there is greater openness. Examination of cross-country inflation data provides …

Openness, The Sacrifice Ratio, And Inflation: Is There A Puzzle?, Joseph P. Daniels, David D. Vanhoose

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

The standard time-inconsistency-based explanation for the negative correlation between openness and inflation requires an inverse relationship between the sacrifice ratio and openness, but Daniels et al. (2005, Openness, central bank independence, and the sacrifice ratio. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 37 (2), 371–379.) have provided evidence that controlling for central bank independence reveals a positive relationship. This paper embeds the time-inconsistency approach within a model of a multisector, imperfectly competitive, open economy. In this setting, greater openness raises the sacrifice ratio but reduces the inflation bias. Thus, failure to observe an inverse relationship between openness and the sacrifice ratio …

Openness, Centralized Wage Bargaining, And Inflation, Joseph P. Daniels, Farrokh Nourzad, David D. Vanhoose

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

This paper develops a model of an open economy containing both sectors in which wages are market-determined and sectors with wage-setting arrangements. A portion of the latter group of sectors coordinate their wages, taking into account that their collective actions influence the equilibrium inflation outcome in an environment in which the central bank engages in discretionary monetary policymaking. Key predictions forthcoming from this model are (1) increased centralization of wage setting initially causes inflation to increase at low degrees of wage centralization but then, as wage centralization increases, results in an inflation drop-off; (2) a greater degree of centralized wage …