Economics Commons^™

The Changing Dynamics Of The Employment Gap And Its Macroeconomic Implications, William Brian Gowen

Honors Projects in Economics

There has been much discussion about the sluggish economic recovery out of the recent recession. However, the lag in employment growth is not unique to the most recent recovery. Jobless recoveries have plagued the U.S. economy over the last three business cycles. The reasons for this change have remained largely inconclusive, with several factors highlighted in the current literature. This paper uses Vector Autoregression (VAR) to analyze the employment gap in the United States over the past six decades. Unlike previous studies, it accounts for the most recent recession while also addressing alternative explanations - trade and globalization, government employment, …

Has Government Tax Policy In Greece Led To A Large Shadow Economy?, Nils Thompson

Honors Projects in Economics

This capstone investigates the impact that tax policy has on the shadow economy in Greece. Greece has one of the largest shadow economies in the world and the largest in the European Union, with tax evasion being one of the main drivers. While previous research has provided measures of the shadow economy, none matches the shadow economy estimations with policies, laws, and agencies enacted by the government, specifically over the period in time of 1990-2012. This study contributes to the literature by connecting the policies implemented by the government with the size of the shadow economy in Greece, along with …

The Stock Market Impact Of Bond Rating Changes, Michael Leonard

Honors Projects in Mathematics

This paper examines the impact of a downgrade of a company’s credit rating on its stock price in the days surrounding the downgrade. If we consider this downgrade new information, then a negative impact on the company’s stock price would be expected. However, if we assume that rating agencies use information that investors have already accounted for, then there would be no impact. There could also be an impact, at least temporarily, due to the fact that a ratings downgrade is bad news, even if the reasons for the downgrade have already been priced in. To perform this analysis I …

The Impact Of New Product Announcements On Quick Service Restaurant Companies’ Stock Returns, Tim Drechsler-Martell

Honors Projects in Finance

This study seeks to answer two main questions: 1) Do product announcements impact quick service restaurant stock returns? 2) Do economic conditions impact the degree which product announcements impact quick service restaurant stock returns? 159 total product announcements were collected for 6 quick service companies: McDonald’s Corp., YUM! Brands Inc., The Wendy’s Co., AFC Enterprises Inc., Jack in the Box Inc., and Sonic Corp. 84 of these announcements were from 2005-2007 (Labeled “Pre-Recession”), and 75 were from 2009-2011 (Labeled “Post-Recession”). Using historical stock price data, an analysis of the overall trends of the mean-adjusted excess returns was conducted to determine …

Relationship Between Interest Rate And Bank Common Stock Return: Evidence From The Top 10 United States Banks And Financial Sector Index, Hieu Trung Tran

Honors Projects in Finance

This research paper investigates the effect of changes in long-term interest rates on the returns of the top 10 US banks included in the Financial Sector Index. There are three main parts of this paper.

The first part uses the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test to test the “Random Walk” of banks’ common stock returns. Based on the test’s results, returns of banks’ common stock do not solely follow the “Random Walk”.

In the second part, the Two-Factor Arbitrage Pricing Theory is employed to test the effect of changes in long-term interest rate on the return of banks’ common stocks. The …

Private Student Loan Asset Backed Securities: A Default Curve Analysis, Nicholas Gentile

Honors Projects in Finance

Business and mainstream media devote significant attention to the student lending industry and its possible threat to the economy. While the private loan component of student lending may not be largest part of this one trillion dollar industry, it is likely to be the space where evidence supporting the media’s concerns are found. This paper examines the variation in cumulative default rates for private student loan asset backed securities issued between 2001 and 2007, revealing the dynamics of these opaque financial instruments. The study analyzes internal pool data and external economic data, uncovering the primary factors that shape the respective …

Initial Public Offerings In The Microfinance Industry: Does A Mission Drift Occur?, Sarah Segill

Honors Projects in Finance

This thesis analyzes whether or not there is a mission drift when microfinance organizations become publicly traded entities. One of the most debated criticisms of microfinance institutions (MFIs) today involves becoming for-profit organizations in attempt to raise more capital. Donor funding is limited for non-profit organizations and does not give an MFI much room to grow to serve a maximal number of people. The entry of for-profit microfinance institutions has a great deal of possibility in terms of generating scale, efficiency and innovation. Yet these for-profit institutions can easily lose track of their social mission to serve the poor and …

The Cost Of Culture The Impact Of National Culture On The Pass-Through Of Commodity Shocks, Christine Gerrity

Honors Projects in Finance

This study analyzes the impact of national culture on the pass-through of commodity price shocks to retail goods. In particular, this study explores the commodities of coffee, cotton and steel. Through the use of regression analysis, this study looks to determine the relationship between two key predictive variables: risk tolerance of a country and commodity shocks within a company’s associated commodity market, and their impact on the value of companies within that country. Additional factors are explored at the firm financial level and the firm country level. The purpose of this study is to examine if consumers of one country …

The Causal Effect Of Market Priming On Trust: An Experimental Investigation Using Randomized Control, Omar Al-Ubaydli, Daniel E. Houser, John Nye, Maria Pia Paganelli, Xiaofei Pan

Economics Faculty Journal Articles

We report data from laboratory experiments where participants were primed using phrases related to markets and trade. Participants then participated in trust games with anonymous strangers. The decisions of primed participants are compared to those of a control group. We find evidence that priming for market participation affects positively the beliefs regarding the trustworthiness of anonymous strangers and increases trusting decisions.

The Relationship Between Inequality And Economic Growth: Evidence From Latin America, Amanda Gallagher

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the complex relationship between income inequality and economic growth in the Latin American region. This study conducts an empirical analysis using economic growth as the dependent variable, to determine the impact inequality has on economic growth. This study uses panel data from countries in Latin America over the time period of 1994-2009. The empirical results show a negative relationship between inequality and economic growth in the Latin American region. In addition, the level of government expenditure and taxation in the countries impact economic growth.

Carbon Emissions And Economic Growth: A Granger Causality Analysis Across 18 Countries, Rohan Vakil

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

In this paper, an analysis of the relationship between Economic Growth and Carbon Emissions will be done using data from 9 Developed Countries, and 9 Less Developed Countries, as determined by the World Bank and United Nations. The countries analyzed will be Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Korea (South), Spain, United Kingdom, United States of America (9 Developed Countries); and India, Indonesia, Iran, Malaysia, Mexico, Brazil, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa (9 Less Developed Countries). This research expands on the research done by Barassi and Spagnolo (2012), and Coondoo and Dinda (2003).

The Effect Of Macroeconomic Variables On Domestic Homeownership Rates, Patrick Graydon

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates how various macroeconomic variables affect homeownership rates in the United States. Some of the variables explored in this study include interest rates, unemployment rate, average household income, inflation rate, GDP, population, and residential construction. The paper uses quarterly data from quarter one of 2000 to quarter three of 2012. The results show the economic indicators that are closely correlated with the rate of homeownership.

The Causality Between Budget Deficits And Interest Rates In Asean Countries, Janhavi Nerurkar

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the correlation between budget deficits and interest rates across countries of varying income levels across Southeast Asia using the Granger-causality econometric model. It consists of a time series analysis of budget deficits (local currency unit) and real interest rates in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines and Singapore from 1990 to 2011.This analysis concludes that budget deficits and interest rates do not cause one another in the countries under consideration.

An Empirical Study Of Salary Discrimination In Professional Basketball, Joshua Reynolds

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the racial differences in salaries amongst professional basketball players during the 2011-2012 season. Prior studies from the 1980s and 1990s show that white and black players have earned a comparable mean salary, based on performance variables and other player characteristics. However these studies have shown, that taking race in as a factor when running regressions of the data, preference exists towards white player salaries. This paper looks to see if the recent shift in demographic makeup of the NBA prevalent during the late 1990s and 2000s has led to a more equitable distribution of salaries based on …

Education And Wellbeing Of A Country, Michael Arons

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper examines education, employment sectors and GDP per capita. The study examines which aspects of education math, reading, or science is more important to an economy, and how they affect different employment sectors. The model will attempt to show if educational subject scores have an impact in different sectors of the economy. The main function of this model is to decipher how education affects the wellbeing of a country. The results will attempt to discern whether education impacts employment in various sectors, and conversely GDP per capita.

The Relationship Between The Stock Market And Economic Indicators: Evidence From Singapore And Hong Kong, Kahini Dalal

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper examines the relationship between the stock markets and economic variables of the selected countries: Singapore and Hong Kong. The quarterly data collected for Gross Domestic Product, Foreign Exchange Rates, Inflation and Current Account Balance, as well as Stock Prices ranges from January 2002 to December 2012. The analysis is focused on the results of the Cointegration and Granger Causality tests to estimate the relationship of the various economic indicators and the stock market indices. This estimation enables to assess whether the stock market index of the respective country is a good representation of the economic health of the …

Determinants Of Fdi Inflows Into South America, Dario Castro

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This study provides a panel data analysis of the key determinants of FDI as determined by the market such as market size, economic stability, trade liberalization, population, growth prospects, and exchange rates. Additionally, other variables such as physical infrastructure, quality of institutions and central bank exchange rate regimes. This paper seeks to show the major policy implications of variables that can be influenced through government intervention. The empirical research is conducted with focus on South American FDI inflows over the last three decades, due to the great presence of natural resources and cheap labor in the region which have contributed …

State Government Revenue: The Effects Of Legalized Gambling, Nicholas S. Malz

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

When facing financial constrictions, legalized gambling is an attractive alternative for state governments. Most empirical evidence on this topic only examines a single industry in a particular state. This study involves a general analysis of three different forms of gambling across all 50 states. The data is comprised of the gambling volume and state government revenues for all 50 states from 2000 to 2010. From the research, lotteries and horse racing typically increase state revenues, while casinos tend to decrease state revenues.

Institutional Quality, Income Inequality, And Economic Growth In Latin American Countries, Courtney Pomer

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the possibility of the institutional quality of a country having an effect on income inequality and economic growth in Latin American Countries. The study incorporates the gini variable and growth rates of GDP in each country to examine the influence of corruption on the various countries throughout Latin America. Looking at previous research it has been found that corruption is positively correlated with income inequality and negatively correlated with economic growth. The variable for corruption in this study however measures the control of corruption in each country, so we will be looking at the institutional quality and …