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Articles 1 - 30 of 49
Full-Text Articles in Economics
(Wp 2015-01) Can Ten Do It Better? Impact Of Red Card In The English Premier League, Abdur Chowdhury
(Wp 2015-01) Can Ten Do It Better? Impact Of Red Card In The English Premier League, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
After penalties and goals, red cards are the next most significant event that can impact the outcome of a soccer (football) game. Using data from the English Premier League, this paper statistically analyzes the impact of whether a sending-off of a player actually turns out to be a punishment for the penalized team, or if - as a popular soccer myth states – penalized teams perform better than they would have performed, had they not received a red card. The results show that the sending-offs negatively affect the performance of the penalized team, no matter when the sending-off occurs. Getting …
What Determines Public Education Expenditures In A Transition Economy?, Inna Verbina, Abdur Chowdhury
What Determines Public Education Expenditures In A Transition Economy?, Inna Verbina, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
Recent studies suggest that the allocation of expenditures in education matters for growth. Public education spending in many transition economies, however, is often inefficient and inequitable with education outlays misallocated across sectors. This highlights the need for an assessment of the nature of education expenditures in these countries. This paper attempts to fill the gap in the literature by estimating the determinants of education expenditures in the Russian Federation. Results from panel data analysis show that revenue and the student-population ratio have a positive impact on education expenditures while the effect of population density is negative. Three regional variables also …
Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy, And Aggregate Economic Activity In Korea, Abdur Chowdhury
Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy, And Aggregate Economic Activity In Korea, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
No abstract provided.
Changes In R&D Expenditure And Productivity Growth: A Causal Analysis, Mawdudur Rahman, Abdur Chowdhury
Changes In R&D Expenditure And Productivity Growth: A Causal Analysis, Mawdudur Rahman, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
A study was conducted to directly test the presence of causal relationship between changes in research and development (R&D) expenditure and productivity growth. Granger causality tests are performed using annual time series data for the period 1956-1983. Three measures of productivity are used -- National Income, National Income per person employed, and National Income per hour of work in the nonresidential business sector. Results show that changes in R&D expenditure affect the growth rate of the 3 productivity measures with different degrees of intensity. National Income per hour of work shows the highest growth rate, with the peak effect occurring …
Monetary And Fiscal Impacts On Economic Activity In Bangladesh: A Note, Abdur Chowdhury
Monetary And Fiscal Impacts On Economic Activity In Bangladesh: A Note, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
No abstract provided.
Do Asymmetric Terms Of Trade Shocks Affect Private Savings In A Transition Economy?, Abdur Chowdhury
Do Asymmetric Terms Of Trade Shocks Affect Private Savings In A Transition Economy?, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
This paper examines whether terms of trade shocks have an asymmetric effect on private savings in transition economies. A simple three-period framework is developed to show that, in the presence of binding credit constraints in bad states of nature, savings rates can be sensitive to favorable movements in the permanent component of the terms of trade. This result contrasts with the prediction of the conventional consumption-smoothing model. Empirical analysis with a dynamic panel model further confirms that while favorable movements in the permanent component of the terms of trade have an asymmetric effect on private savings, the magnitude of the …
Digital Currency And Financial System: The Case Of Bitcoin, Abdur Chowdhury, Barry K. Mendelson
Digital Currency And Financial System: The Case Of Bitcoin, Abdur Chowdhury, Barry K. Mendelson
Abdur R. Chowdhury
No abstract provided.
The Political Investment Cycle Within China: The Next Transition And Its Investment Implications, Abdur Chowdhury, Barry K. Mendelson
The Political Investment Cycle Within China: The Next Transition And Its Investment Implications, Abdur Chowdhury, Barry K. Mendelson
Abdur R. Chowdhury
No abstract provided.
Does The Stock Market's Equity Risk Premium Respond To Consumer Confidence Or Is It The Other Way Around?, Abdur Chowdhury, Barry K. Mendelson
Does The Stock Market's Equity Risk Premium Respond To Consumer Confidence Or Is It The Other Way Around?, Abdur Chowdhury, Barry K. Mendelson
Abdur R. Chowdhury
The increase in the equity risk premium during the 2007- 2009 Great Recession and the aging of the baby boomers in the United States have led analysts and financial industry experts to believe that risk aversion among stock investors has moved to a more-permanently higher range. If so, stocks would cease being an attractive asset class to be investing in for the future. In the past few years private investors have by and large shunned equities, just when stocks have become attractively priced and offer long-term potential for superior above-historical-average returns. Our empirical findings show that the recent increase in …
The Impact Of Financial Reform On Private Savings In Bangladesh, Abdur Chowdhury
The Impact Of Financial Reform On Private Savings In Bangladesh, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
Over the course of the last decade, Bangladesh has implemented a broad-based program of financial and market reforms, encompassing changes in the structure of the financial system, prudential and supervisory frameworks, and monetary management. This paper estimates a savings function to evaluate the impact of various determinants of private savings in Bangladesh—with special emphasis on the impact of financial reform. The results show that the level of income, real interest rates, and the share of agriculture in GDP have a positive impact on the savings rate. Dependency rate and public savings rate, on the other hand, have a negative impact …
By How Much Does Conflict Reduce Financial Development?, Tony Addison, Abdur Chowdhury, Syed M. Murshed
By How Much Does Conflict Reduce Financial Development?, Tony Addison, Abdur Chowdhury, Syed M. Murshed
Abdur R. Chowdhury
Financial development is vulnerable to social conflict. Conflict reduces the demand for domestic currency as a medium of exchange and a store of value. Conflict also leads to poor quality governance, including weak regulation of the financial system, thereby undermining the sustainability of financial institutions. Conflict therefore reduces the social return to financial liberalization and other financial-sector reforms. This paper presents a theoretical model integrating the effects of conflict and financial liberalization, and then tests the model on data for 79 countries. Using an explanatory variable that measures the intensity of conflict (from low to high) the results show that …
Wto Accession: What's In It For Russia?, Abdur Chowdhury
Wto Accession: What's In It For Russia?, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
Prospects for Russia’s membership in the WTO now look better than any point since accession negotiations began almost a decade ago. Good progress with economic and legal reforms within Russia has left the country’s economy better prepared for membership. Nevertheless, the economy still suffers from various weaknesses including, but not limited to, pervasive subsidies for different sectors, lack of liberalization and foreign participation especially in the service sector, inefficiency in custom administration, lack of enforcement of intellectual property rights, etc. For all their sensitivity, the negotiations on the import tariff levels and access to the service sectors are the least …
External Debt And Growth In Developing Countries: A Sensitivity And Causal Analysis, Abdur Chowdhury
External Debt And Growth In Developing Countries: A Sensitivity And Causal Analysis, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
The paper aims to enhance the existing literature on the debt-growth nexus by analysing the relationship in two separate country groups using the extreme bounds analysis for sensitivity tests and the mixed, fixed, and random coefficient approach that allows for heterogeneity in the causal relationship between debt and growth. Irrespective of the debt measure used, the results are robust across the two country groups—HIPC and non-HIPC—as well as two different testing procedures. The extreme bounds analysis shows that the relationship between a debt measure and economic growth is robust to changes in the conditioning set of information included in the …
(Wp 2014-01) Is Bitcoin The 'Paris Hilton' Of The Currency World? Or Are The Early Investors Onto Something That Will Make Them Rich? [Updated Version], Abdur Chowdhury
(Wp 2014-01) Is Bitcoin The 'Paris Hilton' Of The Currency World? Or Are The Early Investors Onto Something That Will Make Them Rich? [Updated Version], Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
The bitcoin phenomenon, and the technological innovation that made it possible, is interesting - but for investors large and small, the more pertinent question is whether they should buy the digital currency or avoid it. We analyze a bitcoin investment from the standpoint of an investor with a diversified portfolio using both in-sample and out-of-sample settings. Within the in-sample setting, bitcoin does not yield added value to investors with utility function consistent with the mean-variance setting. On the other hand, they do offer diversification benefits to investors with negative exponential and power utility functions. However, these benefits are not preserved …
(Wp 2013-08) Economic (In)Security And Gender Differences In Trade Policy Attitudes, Jeffrey Drope, Abdur Chowdhury
(Wp 2013-08) Economic (In)Security And Gender Differences In Trade Policy Attitudes, Jeffrey Drope, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
Over time and across countries, researchers have noted frequent and mostly unexplained gender differences in the levels of support for policies of free or freer trade: women tend to be less favorable toward policies of liberalizing trade than men. Yet, no well substantiated theoretical or empirical account of the gender component of trade attitudes has emerged. Using an economic security explanation based principally on a mobile factors approach, we find that it is not women generally who are more negative toward trade but particularly economically vulnerable women – i.e. women from the scarce labor factor. We utilize recent survey data …
Review Of Prices, Wages And Business Cycles By Burton H. Klein, Abdur Chowdhury
Review Of Prices, Wages And Business Cycles By Burton H. Klein, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
No abstract provided.
The Asian Currency Crisis: Origins, Lessons, And Future Outlook, Abdur Chowdhury
The Asian Currency Crisis: Origins, Lessons, And Future Outlook, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
What started in the summer of 1997 as a regional economic and financial crisis in East and Southeast Asia had developed into a global financial crisis within the span of a year. This crisis followed the crisis in the European Monetary System in 1992-3 and the Mexican peso crisis in 1994-5. However, unlike the previous two crises, the scale and depth of the Asian crisis surprised everyone. Obvious reason for this is East and Southeast Asia's track record of economic success. Since the 1960s, no other group of countries in the world has produced more rapid economic growth or such …
(Wp 2013-03) War And The Fiscal Capacity Of The State, Abdur Chowdhury, Syed M. Murshed
(Wp 2013-03) War And The Fiscal Capacity Of The State, Abdur Chowdhury, Syed M. Murshed
Abdur R. Chowdhury
We examine the role of war in retarding state fiscal capacity in developing countries, measured by tax revenue ratios to GDP. This in contrast to the European experience from the Renaissance to the 20th century, where it is believed that war and state-building were inseparable, enhancing the fiscal capacity of the state; in turn enlarging the scope and magnitude of government expenditure. We build a simple theoretical model of a factionalized state, where patronage substitutes for common interest public goods, along with the possibility of violent contestation over a rent or prize, typically in the form of natural resource revenues. …
Does Exchange Rate Variability Depress Trade Flows ? Evidence From Error Correction Models, Abdur Chowdhury
Does Exchange Rate Variability Depress Trade Flows ? Evidence From Error Correction Models, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
This paper examines the impact of exchange rate volatility on the trade flows of the G-7 countries in the context of a multivariate error-correction model. The error-correction models do not show any sign of parameter instability. The results indicate that the exchange rate volatility has a significant negative impact on the volume of exports in each of the G-7 countries. Assuming market participants are risk averse, these results imply that exchange rate uncertainty causes them to reduce their activities, change prices, or shift sources of demand and supply in order to minimize their exposure to the effects of exchange rate …
A Global Lottery And A Global Premium Bond, Tony Addison, Abdur Chowdhury
A Global Lottery And A Global Premium Bond, Tony Addison, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
Proposals are evaluated, from both an economic and an ethical viewpoint, for development funding through a global lottery, along with a complement to this: a global premium bond (a loan instrument in which the interest takes the form of a lottery prize, the capital being repayable on request, so that it has the characteristics of a savings product, which makes it potentially attractive to ethical investors). The chapter starts by looking at how a global lottery might work, evaluating the issue by discussing lottery operators and their regulation, the market for lotteries, competition between the global lottery and national lotteries, …
Review Of Money, History, And International Finance: Essays In Honor Of Anna J. Schwartz By Michael D. Bordo, Abdur Chowdhury
Review Of Money, History, And International Finance: Essays In Honor Of Anna J. Schwartz By Michael D. Bordo, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
No abstract provided.
(Wp 2011-09) The Development Effects Of Natural Resources: A Geographical Dimension, Fabrizio Carmignani, Abdur Chowdhury
(Wp 2011-09) The Development Effects Of Natural Resources: A Geographical Dimension, Fabrizio Carmignani, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
Despite the recent growth resurgence, Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) remains the poorest region in the world. At the same time, it is a region that heavily relies on natural resources. In this paper we investigate the extent to which the second fact helps explain the first one. The distinctive feature of our study is that we take a geographical perspective and allow the effect of natural resources to differ across regions of the world. Our findings suggest that (i) the effect of natural resource intensity on per-capita income is positive and significant in general, but almost negligible and possibly negative in …
External Debt, Growth And The Hipc Initiative: Is The Country Choice Too Narrow?, Abdur Chowdhury
External Debt, Growth And The Hipc Initiative: Is The Country Choice Too Narrow?, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
No abstract provided.
(Wp 2010-01) The Role Of Primary Commodities In Economic Development: Sub-Saharan Africa Versus Rest Of The World, Fabrizio Carmignani, Abdur Chowdhury
(Wp 2010-01) The Role Of Primary Commodities In Economic Development: Sub-Saharan Africa Versus Rest Of The World, Fabrizio Carmignani, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
We study the nexus between natural resources and growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and find that SSA is indeed special: resources dependence retards growth in SSA, but not elsewhere. The natural resources curse is thus specific to SSA. We then show that this specificity does not depend on the type of primary commodities on which SSA specializes. Instead, the SSA specificity appears to arise from the interaction between institutions and natural resources.
Interest Rate Variability And Manufacturing Industry Cash Flow: An Empirical Analysis, Suzette M. Lebrasseur-Serwin, Abdur Chowdhury
Interest Rate Variability And Manufacturing Industry Cash Flow: An Empirical Analysis, Suzette M. Lebrasseur-Serwin, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
To examine the impact of floating rate loans and interest rate volatility on aggregate cash flow, quarterly data covering the period 1974 to 1990 for 14 two-digit Standard Industrial Classification manufacturing industries were analyzed. The results indicate that changes in the short-term interest rate and-or interest rate volatility have a significantly negative impact on the cash flow of a total of 11 of the 14 firms considered. Although the inverse relationship between corporate cash flow and interest rate is worth mentioning, the heterogeneity of this relationship across industries, however, is more interesting. The magnitude of the decline in cash flow …
The Long-Run Behavior And Short-Run Dynamics Of Private Savings In Morocco, Mina Baliamoune-Lutz, Abdur Chowdhury
The Long-Run Behavior And Short-Run Dynamics Of Private Savings In Morocco, Mina Baliamoune-Lutz, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
The paper examines the trend in private savings in Morocco in the presence of financial sector development by utilizing a cointegration and error-correction modeling framework. Specifically, the hypothesis that there is stable relationship between the level of private savings and its determinants including a measure of financial reform is investigated. The statistical results provide evidence in favor of a long-run relationship between private savings and most of its determinants. More importantly, the financial reform index, as measured by financial depth, is found to have a positive impact on the level of private savings. This indicates that the financial reform program …
(Wp 2010-06) How Do Structural And Policy Factors Affect A Country’S Probability To Achieve The Most (Or The Least) Favorable Growth Path?, Fabrizio Carmignani, Abdur Chowdhury
(Wp 2010-06) How Do Structural And Policy Factors Affect A Country’S Probability To Achieve The Most (Or The Least) Favorable Growth Path?, Fabrizio Carmignani, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
We ask which economic policies can help a country create the most favourable conditions for development. We observe that the dynamics of several development indicators can be grouped into four clusters, each cluster corresponding to a different combination of growth and changes in inequality. Based on this observation, we define four different development scenarios and use limited dependent variable regressions to study how structural and policy factors affect a country’s probability to achieve the most (or the least) favourable of these scenarios. Our results point to a comforting picture: through the choice of appropriate policies countries can effectively increase their …
Substitution Between Money And Near Monies In Switzerland, Subhash C. Sharma, Magda Kandil, Abdur Chowdhury, Tammy Parker
Substitution Between Money And Near Monies In Switzerland, Subhash C. Sharma, Magda Kandil, Abdur Chowdhury, Tammy Parker
Abdur R. Chowdhury
This paper investigates the substitutability between money and near-money assets during the period 1976 to 1996 in Switzerland. Financial developments have made a variety of instruments available to store wealth and conduct economic transactions. These developments have generated a "near money" component in households' and businesses' portfolio balances. It is important to evaluate the effect of "near-money" on money demand and the effectiveness of monetary policy. Towards this goal, five monetary assets: currency and demand deposits at commercial banks, demand deposits with the postal system, deposits on transaction accounts with banks, savings deposits and time deposits are considered. We evaluate …
Review Of The Macroeconomics Of Self-Fulfilling Prophecie By Roger E. A. Farmer, Abdur Chowdhury
Review Of The Macroeconomics Of Self-Fulfilling Prophecie By Roger E. A. Farmer, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
No abstract provided.
(Wp 2011-06) Do Stock Market Risk Premium Respond To Consumer Confidence?, Abdur Chowdhury
(Wp 2011-06) Do Stock Market Risk Premium Respond To Consumer Confidence?, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
During the 2007-9 Great Recession, the risk premium associated with U.S. stocks sharply increased and has since remained significantly higher compared to its range during the last 40 years. The increase in the equity risk premium has led many analysts to believe that risk aversion among stock investors has moved to a permanently higher range in recent years. Our empirical findings show that the recent increase in the equity risk premium primarily reflects a temporary collapse in consumer confidence. As long as the consumer confidence in the sustainability of economic recovery remains low, today's elevated risk premium would persist. Once …