Economics Commons^™

Economic Forecasting, Impact Analysis And Regional Planning With A Focus On The Illawarra, Ashkan Masouman

Ashkan Masouman

Purpose – This thesis investigates the Illawarra economy and presents three approaches to conducting policy impact analysis and economic forecasting. The primary focus of the policy analysis and economic forecasting is measuring the changes that occur in regional output, income and employment as a result of different policies and economic activities. This thesis analyses the structural shifts and economic transitions that have taken place in the regional economy over the past two decades to determine the direction of the economy and analyse impacts of different policies and economic activities on the regional economy. Methodology – There are five methodologies extended …

Underdogs Are Man’S Best Friend: A Test Of Football Market Efficiency, Ladd Kochman, Randy Goodwin

Ladd Kochman

Two mechanical betting rules that had exposed biases in previous studies were applied to National Football League games for the five consecutive seasons ending with the 2003 Super Bowl. Although bets on home teams produced only break-even results, wagers on underdogs posed a serious challenge to the efficient market hypothesis. One possible explanation is that favorites are no less “public” in the minds of bettors than IBM, GE, and the like are public in the minds of investors and may therefore be the victims of inflated expectations and point spreads.

Contribution Of Education And Innovation To Productivity Among Mexican Regions: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis, Vicente German-Soto, Luis Gutiérrez Flores

Vicente German-Soto

Disentangling Disadvantage: Can We Distinguish Good Teaching From Classroom Composition?, Gema Zamarro, John Engberg, Juan Saavedra, Jennifer Steele

Gema Zamarro

This article investigates the use of teacher value-added estimates to assess the distribution of effective teaching across students of varying socioeconomic disadvantage in the presence of classroom composition effects. We examine, via simulations, how accurately commonly used teacher value-added estimators recover the rank correlation between true and estimated teacher effects and a parameter representing the distribution of effective teaching. We consider various scenarios of teacher assignment, within-teacher variability in classroom composition, the importance of classroom com- position effects, and the presence of student unobserved heterogeneity. No single model recovers without bias estimates of the distribution parameter in all the scenarios …

Panel Data Models With Grouped Factor Structures Under Unknown Group Membership, Tomohiro Ando, Jushan Bai

Tomohiro Ando

No abstract provided.

Studying The Effects Of Non Oil Exports On Targeted Economic Growth In Iranian 5th Development Plan: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach, Rasoul Bakhsi Dastjerdi Dr., Reza Moosavi Mohseni Dr., Somayye Jafari

Reza Moosavi Mohseni

we investigate the effects of non oil export on Iran’s economic growth using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) and study which tradable sectors has a larger share in reaching to targeted growth rate 8% in 5th socio economic development plan. We calibrate the model by GAMS (with emphasis on foreign trade sector). Numerical solution to the model is based on Iran’s social accounting matrix (SAM). Results show that 2.03% of targeted economic growth rate is achieved by encouraging a 6% growth in export. It also be mentioned that industry and mine sector in Iran, has more influence on growth than …

Some Matlab Routines To Compute Crps And Quantile Weighted Ps, Michael S. Smith

Michael Stanley Smith

Three routines to compute the CRPS of Gneiting and Raftery (JASA 2007) and the quantile weighted probability score (QWPS) extension in Gneiting and Ranjan (JBES, 2011). They are based on numerical integration as discussed in the Appendix of Smith and Vahey (2015), and I have found them to be much more accurate than using Monte Carlo approximation to the difference of two expectations, as advocated in Panagiotelis and Smith (IJF, 2008).

Copula Modelling Of Dependence In Multivariate Time Series, Michael S. Smith

Michael Stanley Smith

Toward More General Hedonic Estimation: Clarifying The Roles Of Alternative Experimental Designs With An Application To A Housing Attribute, Michael D. Eriksen, Thomas Kniesner, Christopher Rohlfs, Ryan Sullivan

Michael D Eriksen

Our research develops a more general hedonic model in which an exogenous shock to a single product attribute can affect other attributes, the markets for the product’s complements and substitutes, and aggregate quantity produced. The factors are shown to be empirically relevant and to cause bias in traditional approaches. Experimental estimators of attribute demand are introduced that address biases, are transparent, and are straightforward to implement. We apply one of the estimators developed to measure the marginal value placed by householders on subsidized carbon monoxide detectors.

Convergencia En Tecnología, Cinthya Caamal, Claudia Sánchez, Vicente German-Soto

Vicente German-Soto

Prices And Social Behavior: Evidence From Adult Smoking In Canadian Aboriginal Communities, Jesse A. Matheson

Jesse A Matheson