Economics Commons^™

A Collection Of Portfolio Management Issues, Mike Mccausland

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

This thesis consists of three chapters of interest to a portfolio manager. The first paper examines how the profitability of trading rules depends on volatility. In particular, a question of interest is whether one rule dominates all others regardless of the level of volatility, or whether it is more profitable to vary the choice of trading rule corresponding to volatility. Certain rules, such as the KST indicator using overbought/oversold levels, appear to excel under highly volatile conditions, while exponential moving average rules perform better with low volatility. In the second paper, a Value-at-Risk (VaR) model capable of producing accurate and …

Forest Biomass Utilization In The Southern United States: Resource Sustainability And Policy Impacts, Zhimei Guo

Doctoral Dissertations

As an alternative renewable source for bioenergy, forest biomass has recently drawn more attention from the U.S. government and the general public. Woody biomass policies have been adopted to encourage the new bioenergy industry. A variety of state policy incentives attempt to create a desirable legal climate and lure new firms, imposing two important questions regarding state government policies and the sustainable use of forest resources. This dissertation sheds some light on these questions.

The first paper constructs a woody biomass policy index through scoring each statute and weighting different categories of policies from the vantage point of renewable energy …

Target Industry Study: An Empirical Analysis Of Intertemporal Trends In Regional Industrial Base Composition, David M. Smith

Undergraduate Theses and Capstone Projects

This paper follows existing literature on local industrial conditions and agglomeration economies in an adapted shift-share framework. The purpose of this study is to develop a cost-efficient empirical model that meets the needs of local government in analyzing changes in industrial composition. The data for this model is obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) with nondisclosed data provided by the Virginia Employment Commission which is sorted by North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) 2-digit industrial sectors. The model developed in this paper identifies certain industrial sectors which exert significant influence on the …

An Analysis Of Remittance Tendencies Of Philippine Migrant Workers, Maryan S. Samson

CMC Senior Theses

In developing countries, remittances play a key role as a source of external finance. Remittances are a form of aid that migrant workers send back to their families, located in their home countries, in order to support the needs of the household. In about 25% of developing countries, remittances are larger than public and private capital flows combined (International Monetary Fund, 2009). In 2008, the Philippines economy was the 47^th largest economy in the world with a GDP of $322 billion dollars (Asian Development Bank, Fact Sheet). Remittances accounted for over 10% of the Philippine economy, making the Philippines …

Take Me Out Of The Ball Game: The Efficacy Of Public Subsidies In The Success Of Professional Sports Stadiums, Jonah Chodosh

CMC Senior Theses

This paper weights the relative advantages of multiple factors that lead to the success of professional sports stadiums in major markets, though a discussion of the arguments for and against public subsidies towards these projects. Using a logit statistical model, the paper determines that the two factors determining the highest likelihood of venue success include multiple tenants and access to mass transit. The analysis demonstrates that public subsidies towards stadiums don’t generate sufficient economic returns, and that successful stadiums can be created without using taxpayer funds.

Strategic Significance: A Model Of G-20 Membership, Patrick Eagan-Van Meter

CMC Senior Theses

The membership of the Group of 20 was selected without any official criteria. This paper investigates whether group membership can be explained through the consideration of several different factors that coincide with the mission of the organization. I found strong evidence that membership in the Group of 20 was based on some combination of land mass and economic output. The results demonstrate that these factors are highly predictive of group membership.

Running Backs In The Nfl Draft And Nfl Combine: Can Performance Be Predicted?, Chris Blees

CMC Senior Theses

Berri and Simmons (2009) investigate the relationship between the NFL Combine and the NFL Draft. They find that a quarterback’s performance in the Combine can have a significant impact on that player’s draft position. However, they find that no known aspect of a quarterback before they are drafted is an indicator of success in the NFL. I examine if these relationships exist for the Running Back position. I find similar results to Berri and Simmons: that performance in the Combine does have an effect on that player’s draft position, but that no aspect of a running back’s pre-draft characteristics can …

The Economic Impact Of Oil Price Shocks On Emerging Markets, Aanchal Kapoor

CMC Senior Theses

Recent spikes in oil prices have thrown light on how economic activity in emerging markets may be impacted by oil price shocks. This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the effect of oil price shocks on emerging markets. It tests for the existence of an asymmetrical relationship between oil prices and economic activity using a model developed by James Hamilton. It also assesses the impact of structural shocks to the real price of oil on output as proposed by Lutz Kilian. While our models find no consistent pattern within emerging markets, they do suggest that oil price shocks have a …

The Great Indian Growth Puzzle: What Caused A Spike In 2003?, Aditya Bindal

CMC Senior Theses

This paper will employ unit root tests for finding structural breaks endogenously among India’s key macroeconomic aggregate series, as well as their components and subcomponents. The same analysis will be repeated, wherever data are available, for states. The results from these unit root tests will then be used in regression models for national and state level data to understand the causes behind structural breaks. We find that breakpoints cluster around 1982 and 2003 for most series at the national and state level. The services component appears to be a promising candidate for explaining the 2003 structural break in some of …

The Impact Of Oil Prices On The U.S. Economy, Jacob H. Bauch

CMC Senior Theses

Nine of the ten recessions since WWII have been preceded by relatively large and sudden increases in the price of oil. In this paper, I use time series analysis to forecast GDP growth using oil prices. I use the methodology from Hamilton (2009), and extend the dataset through 2010. Impulse response functions are used to analyze the historical performance of the model’s one-year-ahead forecasts. In April, 2011, the International Monetary Fund changed its forecast of 2011 GDP growth in the U.S. from 3.0% to 2.8% largely due to persistently high oil prices. My model suggests that the price increase in …

Film Review Aggregators And Their Effect On Sustained Box Office Performance, Nicholas Krishnamurthy

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis will discuss the emerging influence of film review aggregators and their effect on the changing landscape for reviews in the film industry. Specifically, this study will look at the top 150 domestic grossing films of 2010 to empirically study the effects of two specific review aggregators. A time-delayed approach to regression analysis is used to measure the influencing effects of these aggregators in the long run. Subsequently, other factors crucial to predicting film success are also analyzed in the context of sustained earnings.

Using Ordinary Least Squares Regression And Quantile Regression To Test The Capital Asset Pricing Model And The Fama And French Model In The Australian Equity Market, Yixaun Rui

Theses : Honours

Many studies have tested the CAPM and the Fama and French model in the Australian security market using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method. However, this regression method just focuses on the relationship between means in the dataset, and equity market usually has some extreme situations in the tails. In this study, quantile regression will be used as well as OLS to provide a more comprehensive picture. This research will also compare the domestic and overseas indices in testing the CAPM and the Fama and French model. A twenty-year data sample composed of the 50 largest companies' equity returns will …

Testing Heterogeneity In Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects, Qihui Chen

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This paper proposes a test for the slope homogeneity in large dimensional panel data models with interactive fixed effects based on a measure of goodness-of-fit (R²). We first obtain, for each cross-sectional unit, the R² from the time series regression of residuals on the constant and observable regressors and then construct the test statistic R² as an equally weighted average of the cross-sectional R²'s. R̄² is close to 0 under the null hypothesis of homogenous slopes and deviates away from 0 otherwise. We show that after being appropriately centered and scaled, R^{2 …}