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Consumer Confidence Indicators And Economic Fluctuations In Nigeria, Adamu Ibrahim, Sani Bawa, Ismaila S. Abdullahi, Chizoba E. Didigu, Sani S. Mainasara

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

Consumer confidence indicators(CCI) serve as a veritable tool for providing useful information to policy makers, forecasters and the general public. Recent studies indicated the possibility of a slowdown in output, resulting from the pessimism of consumers in their expectations about the general state of the economy, even if their pessimism were not based on economic fundamentals. This study evaluated the predictive ability of the CCI in forecasting economic fluctuations in Nigeria. The study applied the Granger Causality tests, impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition to assess if CCI granger causes output growth as well as ascertain the magnitude …