Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

An Introduction To Calling Bullshit: Learning To Think Outside The Black Box, Jevin D. West, Carl T. Bergstrom

Numeracy

Bergstrom, Carl T. and Jevin D. West. 2020. Calling Bullshit: The Art of Skepticism in a Data-Driven World. (New York: Random House) 336 pp. ISBN 978-0525509202.

While statistical methods receive greater attention, the art of critically evaluating information in everyday life more commonly depends on thinking outside the black box of the algorithm. In this piece we introduce readers to our book and associated online teaching materials—for readers who want to more capably call “bullshit” or to teach their students to do the same.

Fourth Down Decision Making: Challenging The Conservative Nature Of Nfl Coaches, Will Palmquist, Ryan Elmore, Benjamin Williams

DU Undergraduate Research Journal Archive

This thesis analyzes the hypothesis that coaches in the National Football League are often too conservative in their decision making on fourth downs. I used R Studio and NFL play-by-play data to simulate actual football plays and drives according to different fourth down strategies. By measuring expected points per drive over thousands of simulated drives, we are able to evaluate the effectiveness of different fourth down strategies. This research points to a number of conclusions regarding the nature of NFL coaches on fourth downs as well as the complexity of modeling and simulating decision making in a complex sport such …

Applying The Data: Predictive Analytics In Sport, Anthony Teeter, Margo Bergman

Access*: Interdisciplinary Journal of Student Research and Scholarship

The history of wagering predictions and their impact on wide reaching disciplines such as statistics and economics dates to at least the 1700’s, if not before. Predicting the outcomes of sports is a multibillion-dollar business that capitalizes on these tools but is in constant development with the addition of big data analytics methods. Sportsline.com, a popular website for fantasy sports leagues, provides odds predictions in multiple sports, produces proprietary computer models of both winning and losing teams, and provides specific point estimates. To test likely candidates for inclusion in these prediction algorithms, the authors developed a computer model, and test …

The Importance Of Type I Error Rates When Studying Bias In Monte Carlo Studies In Statistics, Michael Harwell

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Two common outcomes of Monte Carlo studies in statistics are bias and Type I error rate. Several versions of bias statistics exist but all employ arbitrary cutoffs for deciding when bias is ignorable or non-ignorable. This article argues Type I error rates should be used when assessing bias.

The Author’S Reflections On No B.S. (Bad Stats): Black People Need People Who Believe In Black People Enough Not To Believe Every Bad Thing They Hear About Black People, Ivory A. Toldson

Numeracy

Toldson, Ivory. A. 2019. No BS (Bad Stats): Black People Need People Who Believe in Black People Enough Not to Believe Every Bad Thing They Hear About Black People (Boston, MA: Brill-Sense) 194 pp. ISBN 978-9004397026.

This essay provides an introduction to No BS (Bad Stats): Black People Need People Who Believe in Black People Enough Not to Believe Every Bad Thing They Hear About Black People. In the essay, the author discusses how cynical views about the educational potential of Black children motivated him to write a book that challenges negative statistics. The essay also outlines the harmful …

Calculus Of The Impossible: Review Of The Improbability Principle (2014) By David Hand And The Logic Of Miracles (2018) By Lásló Mérő, Samuel L. Tunstall

Numeracy

David J. Hand. 2014. The Improbability Principle: Why Coincidences, Miracles, and Rare Events Happen Every Day (New York, NY: Scientific American/Farrar, Straus and Giroux) 288 pp. ISBN: 978-0374175344.

Lásló Mérő. 2018. The Logic of Miracles: Making Sense of Rare, Really Rare, and Impossibly Rare Events (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press) 288 pp. ISBN: 978-0300224153.

David Hand and Lásló Mérő both grapple with the occurrence of seemingly impossible events in these two popular science books. In this comparative review, I describe the two books, and explain why I prefer Hand's treatment of the impossible.

Measurement Error Estimation Methods In Survey Methodology, Alireza Zahedian, Roshanak A. Saba

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

One of the most important topics that are discussed in survey methodology is the accuracy of statistics or survey errors that may occur in the parameters estimation process. In statistical literature, these errors are grouped into two main categories: sampling errors and non-sampling errors. Measurement error is one of the most important non-sampling errors. Since estimating of measurement error is more complex than other types of survey errors, much more research has been done on ways of preventing or dealing with this error. The main problem associated with measurement error is the difficulty to measure or estimate this error in …

P-Values Versus Significance Levels, Phillip I. Good

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

In this article Phillip Good responds to Richard Anderson's article Conceptual Distinction between the Critical p Value and the Type I Error Rate in Permutation Testing.

Conceptual Distinction Between The Critical P Value And The Type I Error Rate In Permutation Testing: Author Response To Peer Comments, Richard B. Anderson

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Richard Anderson responds to comments regarding his target article Conceptual Distinction between the Critical p Value and the Type I Error Rate in Permutation Testing.

A Response To Anderson's (2013) Conceptual Distinction Between The Critical P Value And Type I Error Rate In Permutation Testing, Fortunato Pesarin, Stefano Bonnini

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Pesarin and Bonnini respond to Anderson's (2013) Conceptual Distinction between the Critical p value and Type I Error Rate in Permutation Testing

Conceptual Distinction Between The Critical P Value And The Type I Error Rate In Permutation Testing, Richard B. Anderson

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

To counter past assertions that permutation testing is not distribution-free, this article clarifies that the critical p value (alpha) in permutation testing is not a Type I error rate and that a test's validity is independent of the concept of Type I error.

Statistics For National Development, Sani I. Doguwa

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

Good statistics that has been collected according to agreed good practices are crucial as a tool for development. Gross domestic product (GDP) and other measures of economic activity such as Gross National Income (GNI) together with their individual components, show how the economy is responding to government policy and other influences. The balance of payments can demonstrate the requirement for policy adjustments and is also one of the indicators scrutinised by potential foreign investors in the country. Agricultural statistics clearly have implications for longer-term planning, particularly if they show a move away from the land into urban areas or a …

A Simulation Study Of The Impact Of Forecast Recovery For Control Charts Applied To Arma Processes, John N. Dyer, B. Michael Adams, Michael D. Conerly

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Forecast-based schemes are often used to monitor autocorrelated processes, but the resulting forecast recovery has a significant effect on the performance of control charts. This article describes forecast recovery for autocorrelated processes, and the resulting simulation study is used to explain the performance of control charts applied to forecast errors.

Likely And Unlikely Events In International Security Affairs: An Example From The People's Republic Of China, Ibpp Editor

International Bulletin of Political Psychology

This article describes a human judgment shortfall in international security decision making based on statistical probabilities.

Measuring Hotel Service Quality: Tools For Gaining The Competitive Edge, Robert C. Ford, Susan A. Bach

Hospitality Review

As the hotel industry grows more competitive, quality guest service becomes an increasingly important part of managers' responsibility measuring the quality of service delivery is facilitated when managers know what types of assessment methods are available to them. The authors present and discuss the following available measurement techniques and describe the situations where they best meet the needs of hotel managers: management observation, employee feedback programs, comment cards, mailed surveys, personal and telephone interviews, focus groups, and mystery shopping.

Statistical Section (June 1984), Central Bank Of Nigeria Cbn

Economic and Financial Review

Statistical tables on central banking, commercial banking, merchant banking, international liquidity, international trade, the flow of funds, money supply, national savings, production, consumer prices, public debt and public finance.

Statistical Section (September 1983), Central Bank Of Nigeria Cbn

Economic and Financial Review

The statistical tables comprised of the following: Central Bank of Nigeria statement of assets & liabilities, Central Bank monthly rediscounts gross, Commercial Banks' statement of assets and liabilities, Analysis of Commercial Banks' loans and advances, Selected predominant interest rates, Ratio of loans and advances to deposits, Net external assets of Commercial Banks, and Liquidity ratios of Commercial and merchants Banks'.

Statistical Section (June 1972), Central Bank Of Nigeria Cbn

Economic and Financial Review

The dataset set contains data from central banking, commercial banking, currency in circulation, external assets, international trade, money and capital, money supply, national savings, production and public debt covering 1966-1971.

Statistics For Decision Making, Central Bank Of Nigeria Cbn

Economic and Financial Review

The paper was reproduced for the Board of Trade Journal No 3783 of September 17, 1969. It was a speech from the Prime Minister on the need to for a change from the traditional system of industrial statistics to a more comprehensive scheme of quarterly reporting of production which will be supported by annual inquiries into such matters as purchases, fixed capital formation among others.

Statistical Section (June 1970), Central Bank Of Nigeria Cbn

Economic and Financial Review

The dataset include data for central bank and commercial banks statement of assets and liabilities, currency in circulation, external assets, international trade, money and capital markets, money supply, national savings, production, public debt and public finance.

Statistical Section (June 1969), Central Bank Of Nigeria Cbn

Economic and Financial Review

The dataset for the June 1969 issue of the Economic and Financial Review contents data for central banking, commercial banking, money supply, money and capital markets, public debt, national savings, external assets, international trade, production, fuel and power and public finance, covering data from 1962 to 1969.

Statistical Section (December 1968), Central Bank Of Nigeria Cbn

Economic and Financial Review

Publication of the statistics include analysis of commercial bank loans and advances, finance agricultural exports, money and capital marker, national savings, international trade, fuel and power and some new headings that are now included like transportation and communications, while some have been merged to other headings.

Statistical Section December 1966, Central Bank Of Nigeria Cbn

Economic and Financial Review

The statistics included in this publication for 1966 are the central bank statement of assets and liabilities, currency in circulation, commercial banking, money and capital markets, public finance, international trade, production, fuel and power among others

Statistical Section (June 1966), Central Bank Of Nigeria Cbn

Economic and Financial Review

This section of the EFR reports the statistics of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) from 1960 to the first half 1966. This includes the Bank’s statement of assets and liabilities as well as its rediscount operations. Other sections include: currency in circulation, money supply, commercial banking activities, money and capital markets, public finance, national savings, external assets and international trade. The remaining sections include: Production (agricultural produce, mineral production), fuel and power, electricity generation and consumption.