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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences

Analyzing Competitive Balance In Professional Sport, Kevin Alwell May 2020

Analyzing Competitive Balance In Professional Sport, Kevin Alwell

Honors Scholar Theses

In this paper we review several measures to statistically analyze competitive balance and report which leagues have a wider variance of performance amongst its competitors. Each league seeks to maintain high levels of parity, making matches and overall season more unpredictable and appealing to the general audience. Here we quantify competitive advantage across major sports leagues in numbers using several statistical methods in order for leagues to optimize their revenue.


Boom Or Bust: Examining The Relationship Between High School Recruiting Rankings And The Nfl Draft, Nicholas E. Tice Apr 2020

Boom Or Bust: Examining The Relationship Between High School Recruiting Rankings And The Nfl Draft, Nicholas E. Tice

Senior Theses

The goal of this thesis is to model the probability of a high school football player’s chance of being drafted based on information taken from their recruiting profile. The response variable is binary and defined as drafted (1) or undrafted (0). The independent variables were collected by scraping data from the recruiting websites including height, weight, position, hometown, recruiting grade and other socioeconomic factors based on the player’s high school. 247Sports and ESPN were the two recruiting services used and compared in this study. Because of the binary nature of the dependent variable, logistic regression and decision trees ...


The Importance Of Type I Error Rates When Studying Bias In Monte Carlo Studies In Statistics, Michael Harwell Feb 2020

The Importance Of Type I Error Rates When Studying Bias In Monte Carlo Studies In Statistics, Michael Harwell

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Two common outcomes of Monte Carlo studies in statistics are bias and Type I error rate. Several versions of bias statistics exist but all employ arbitrary cutoffs for deciding when bias is ignorable or non-ignorable. This article argues Type I error rates should be used when assessing bias.


Power And Statistical Significance In Securities Fraud Litigation, Jill E. Fisch, Jonah B. Gelbach Feb 2020

Power And Statistical Significance In Securities Fraud Litigation, Jill E. Fisch, Jonah B. Gelbach

Faculty Scholarship at Penn Law

Event studies, a half-century-old approach to measuring the effect of events on stock prices, are now ubiquitous in securities fraud litigation. In determining whether the event study demonstrates a price effect, expert witnesses typically base their conclusion on whether the results are statistically significant at the 95% confidence level, a threshold that is drawn from the academic literature. As a positive matter, this represents a disconnect with legal standards of proof. As a normative matter, it may reduce enforcement of fraud claims because litigation event studies typically involve quite low statistical power even for large-scale frauds.

This paper, written for ...


The Author’S Reflections On No B.S. (Bad Stats): Black People Need People Who Believe In Black People Enough Not To Believe Every Bad Thing They Hear About Black People, Ivory A. Toldson Jan 2020

The Author’S Reflections On No B.S. (Bad Stats): Black People Need People Who Believe In Black People Enough Not To Believe Every Bad Thing They Hear About Black People, Ivory A. Toldson

Numeracy

Toldson, Ivory. A. 2019. No BS (Bad Stats): Black People Need People Who Believe in Black People Enough Not to Believe Every Bad Thing They Hear About Black People (Boston, MA: Brill-Sense) 194 pp. ISBN 978-9004397026.

This essay provides an introduction to No BS (Bad Stats): Black People Need People Who Believe in Black People Enough Not to Believe Every Bad Thing They Hear About Black People. In the essay, the author discusses how cynical views about the educational potential of Black children motivated him to write a book that challenges negative statistics. The essay also outlines the harmful consequences ...


9th Annual Postdoctoral Science Symposium, University Of Texas Md Anderson Cancer Center Postdoctoral Association Sep 2019

9th Annual Postdoctoral Science Symposium, University Of Texas Md Anderson Cancer Center Postdoctoral Association

MD Anderson Cancer Center Postdoctoral Association Annual Postdoctoral Science Symposium Abstracts

The mission of the Annual Postdoctoral Science Symposium (APSS) is to provide a platform for talented postdoctoral fellows throughout the Texas Medical Center to present their work to a wider audience. The MD Anderson Postdoctoral Association convened its inaugural Annual Postdoctoral Science Symposium (APSS) on August 4, 2011.

The APSS provides a professional venue for postdoctoral scientists to develop, clarify, and refine their research as a result of formal reviews and critiques of faculty and other postdoctoral scientists. Additionally, attendees discuss current research on a broad range of subjects while promoting academic interactions and enrichment and developing new collaborations.


Advanced Statistics In Arkansas Sports Reporting, Andrew Lee Epperson May 2019

Advanced Statistics In Arkansas Sports Reporting, Andrew Lee Epperson

Theses and Dissertations

This study seeks to analyze how Arkansas’ sports journalists are adapting to the recent surge in available advanced statistics that are being used by certain national news organizations. Using in-depth qualitative research that includes in-depth interviews with a number of individuals in the print, broadcast, and athletics side of sports coverage, we discover how journalists and coaches use these next-generation analytics, what they fundamentally mean for the evolution of each respective path, and why so few Arkansas reporters and writers use them at the time of this paper’s defense. We see how budgets and deadlines restrict the use of ...


3 Reasons Why People Fall For Politicians’ Lies About Statistics, Mack C. Shelley Feb 2019

3 Reasons Why People Fall For Politicians’ Lies About Statistics, Mack C. Shelley

Political Science Publications

Why do people make such poor decisions about politics? Why are they so often distracted by lies, irrelevant alternatives and specious arguments?

Politicians use and abuse statistics and fabricate when it suits their purposes. Contemporary examples of either deliberate or inadvertent misuse of data are easy to find on all sides of the political divide, from the Trump administration’s claim that U.S. border officials detained “nearly 4,000 known or suspected terrorists” last year at the Mexican border to U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s December tweet asserting that “66 percent of Medicare for All could have been ...


Calculus Of The Impossible: Review Of The Improbability Principle (2014) By David Hand And The Logic Of Miracles (2018) By Lásló Mérő, Samuel L. Tunstall Jul 2018

Calculus Of The Impossible: Review Of The Improbability Principle (2014) By David Hand And The Logic Of Miracles (2018) By Lásló Mérő, Samuel L. Tunstall

Numeracy

David J. Hand. 2014. The Improbability Principle: Why Coincidences, Miracles, and Rare Events Happen Every Day (New York, NY: Scientific American/Farrar, Straus and Giroux) 288 pp. ISBN: 978-0374175344.

Lásló Mérő. 2018. The Logic of Miracles: Making Sense of Rare, Really Rare, and Impossibly Rare Events (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press) 288 pp. ISBN: 978-0300224153.

David Hand and Lásló Mérő both grapple with the occurrence of seemingly impossible events in these two popular science books. In this comparative review, I describe the two books, and explain why I prefer Hand's treatment of the impossible.


A 3d Characteristics Database Of Land Engraved Areas With Known Subclass, Entni Lin Jun 2018

A 3d Characteristics Database Of Land Engraved Areas With Known Subclass, Entni Lin

Student Theses

Subclass characteristics on bullets may mislead firearm examiners when they rely on traditional 2D images. In order to provide indelible examples for training and help avoid identification errors, 3D topography surface maps and statistical methods of pattern recognition are applied to toolmarks on bullets containing known subclass characteristics. This research was conducted by collecting 3D topography surface map data from land engraved areas of bullets fired through known barrels. This data was processed and used to train the statistical algorithms to predict their origin. The results from the algorithm are compared with the “right answers” (i.e. correct IDs) of ...


The Psychology Of Baseball: How The Mental Game Impacts The Physical Game, Kiera Dalmass Apr 2018

The Psychology Of Baseball: How The Mental Game Impacts The Physical Game, Kiera Dalmass

Honors Scholar Theses

The purpose of this study was to find whether or not sports psychology can be effective. Baseball was chosen as the sport for the study because baseball can be analyzed for nearly every single factor of the game, with the exception of the mental readiness or state of the player when he steps onto the field. It therefore provides the optimal atmosphere to provide clinical and statistical support to the field of sports psychology. Despite the various, numerous pieces of literature that praise and show support for sports psychology, there hasn’t been clinical research to support it. Additionally, multiple ...


Essentials Of Structural Equation Modeling, Mustafa Emre Civelek Mar 2018

Essentials Of Structural Equation Modeling, Mustafa Emre Civelek

Zea E-Books

Structural Equation Modeling is a statistical method increasingly used in scientific studies in the fields of Social Sciences. It is currently a preferred analysis method, especially in doctoral dissertations and academic researches. However, since many universities do not include this method in the curriculum of undergraduate and graduate courses, students and scholars try to solve the problems they encounter by using various books and internet resources.

This book aims to guide the researcher who wants to use this method in a way that is free from math expressions. It teaches the steps of a research program using structured equality modeling ...


Understanding Database Reconstruction Attacks On Public Data, Simson L. Garfinkel, John M. Abowd, Christian Martindale Jan 2018

Understanding Database Reconstruction Attacks On Public Data, Simson L. Garfinkel, John M. Abowd, Christian Martindale

Labor Dynamics Institute

In 2020 the U.S. Census Bureau will conduct the Constitutionally mandated decennial Census of Population and Housing. Because a census involves collecting large amounts of private data under the promise of confidentiality, traditionally statistics are published only at high levels of aggregation. Published statistical tables are vulnerable to DRAs (database reconstruction attacks), in which the underlying microdata is recovered merely by finding a set of microdata that is consistent with the published statistical tabulations. A DRA can be performed by using the tables to create a set of mathematical constraints and then solving the resulting set of simultaneous equations ...


Teaching Statistics To Msw Students: Comparing Credit And Non-Credit Options, Ashley Davis, Rebecca G. Mirick Dec 2017

Teaching Statistics To Msw Students: Comparing Credit And Non-Credit Options, Ashley Davis, Rebecca G. Mirick

Rebecca Mirick

In professional disciplines like social work, students are expected to be able to understand and apply basic statistical concepts. Graduate programs differ in how they expect students to develop this ability; some require a full-credit statistics course as a prerequisite to admission, and others incorporate statistics into social work research courses. The for-credit requirement has a high financial and time cost for students. This exploratory study examined the feasibility of replacing this requirement with a brief, non-credit statistics course. MSW students (n=168) who took both types of courses were surveyed. No association was found between the type of course ...


Constitutionalism And Democracy Dataset, Version 1.0, Todd A. Eisenstadt, Carl Levan, Tofigh Maboudi May 2017

Constitutionalism And Democracy Dataset, Version 1.0, Todd A. Eisenstadt, Carl Levan, Tofigh Maboudi

Political Science: Faculty Publications and Other Works

The main objective of the CDD is to quantify the process of constitution-making since 1974. This is the first public release of any data on the process of constitution-making. This release includes data on 144 national constitutions promulgated in 119 countries from 1974 to 2014. The unit of analysis in the data is national constitutions. The data in this release includes only “new” constitutions and does not include suspended, re-installed, amended, or interim constitutions. In this release, only countries with a population larger than 500,000 are included. The authors intend to update the data by including all countries, expanding ...


Statistics-Bierce Library Study, Tyler J. Hushour Jan 2017

Statistics-Bierce Library Study, Tyler J. Hushour

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

This is a report from two surveys that I created and administered to students and faculty at Bierce library who came to the Circulation Desk or the Tech Desk, as well as some of my other findings when periodically looking around the library to see where students like to study or hang-out. There was a written survey given at the Circulation Desk, and a different survey given at the Tech Check-Out Desk. The project is for Melanie Smith-Farrell, the head of Access Services, and is based on a similar study Ian McCullough did in the science library. While this is ...


The Reliability Of Crowdsourcing: Latent Trait Modeling With Mechanical Turk, Matt Baucum, Steven Rouse Dr., Cindy Miller-Perrin, Elizabeth Mancuso Dr. Apr 2016

The Reliability Of Crowdsourcing: Latent Trait Modeling With Mechanical Turk, Matt Baucum, Steven Rouse Dr., Cindy Miller-Perrin, Elizabeth Mancuso Dr.

Seaver College Research And Scholarly Achievement Symposium

Mechanical Turk, an online crowdsourcing platform, has recently received increased attention in the social sciences as studies continue to suggest its viability as a source for reliable experimental data. Given the ease with which large samples can be quickly and inexpensively gathered, it is worth examining whether Mechanical Turk can provide accurate experimental data for methodologies requiring such large samples. One such methodology is Item Response Theory, a psychometric paradigm that defines test items by a mathematical relationship between a respondent’s ability and the probability of item endorsement. To test whether Mechanical Turk can serve as a reliable source ...


Bayesian Modeling And Computation With Latent Variables, Matthew Wayne Simpson Jan 2015

Bayesian Modeling And Computation With Latent Variables, Matthew Wayne Simpson

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation contributes to Bayesian statistics and economics using latent variable methods. The first chapter explores interweaving methods for constructing Markov chains in dynamic linear models (DLMs). Here, several new data augmentations are defined for the DLM, and a negative result concerning the sort of augmentations that can be found for the model is proved. A simulation study using a specific DLM illuminates when each of several DA and interweaving algorithms performs well. The second chapter is an extention of the first, introducing a method to extend the results of the first chapter to DLMs where the observation level matrix ...


Perception In Statistical Graphics, Susan Ruth Vanderplas Jan 2015

Perception In Statistical Graphics, Susan Ruth Vanderplas

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

There has been quite a bit of research on statistical graphics and visualization, generally focused on new types of graphics, new software to create graphics, interactivity, and usability studies. Our ability to interpret and use statistical graphics hinges on the interface between the graph itself and the brain that perceives and interprets it, and there is substantially less research on the interplay between graph, eye, brain, and mind than is sufficient to understand the nature of these relationships.

The goal of the work presented here is to further explore the interplay between a static graph, the translation of that graph ...


Analyzing Alcohol Behavior In San Luis Obispo, Ariana Montes Dec 2014

Analyzing Alcohol Behavior In San Luis Obispo, Ariana Montes

Statistics

No abstract provided.


Visualizing Probabilistic Proof, Enrique Guerra-Pujol Nov 2014

Visualizing Probabilistic Proof, Enrique Guerra-Pujol

Washington University Jurisprudence Review

The author revisits the Blue Bus Problem, a famous thought-experiment in law involving probabilistic proof, and presents Bayesian solutions to different versions of the blue bus hypothetical. In addition, the author expresses his solutions in standard and visual formats, that is, in terms of probabilities and natural frequencies.


Measuring Gender Difference In Information Sharing Using Network Analysis: The Case Of The Austrian Interlocking Directorship Network In 2009, Carlo Drago, Livia Amidani Aliberti, Davide Carbonai Jul 2014

Measuring Gender Difference In Information Sharing Using Network Analysis: The Case Of The Austrian Interlocking Directorship Network In 2009, Carlo Drago, Livia Amidani Aliberti, Davide Carbonai

Carlo Drago

In recent literature a relevant problem has been the relationship between career/personal contact networks and different career paths. In addition the recent advances in social capital theory have shown the way in which networks impact on personal careers. In particular women’s careers appear to be negatively affected by the informational network structure. The main contribution of this work is to propose empirical evidence of this phenomenon by considering the gendered directorship network with relation to Austria and to show the structural differences by gender in the network. By using community detection techniques we have found various communities in ...


A Simulation Study Of The Impact Of Forecast Recovery For Control Charts Applied To Arma Processes, John N. Dyer, B. Michael Adams, Michael D. Conerly Nov 2013

A Simulation Study Of The Impact Of Forecast Recovery For Control Charts Applied To Arma Processes, John N. Dyer, B. Michael Adams, Michael D. Conerly

John N. Dyer

Forecast-based schemes are often used to monitor autocorrelated processes, but the resulting forecast recovery has a significant effect on the performance of control charts. This article describes forecast recovery for autocorrelated processes, and the resulting simulation study is used to explain the performance of control charts applied to forecast errors.


Conceptual Distinction Between The Critical P Value And The Type I Error Rate In Permutation Testing, Richard B. Anderson May 2013

Conceptual Distinction Between The Critical P Value And The Type I Error Rate In Permutation Testing, Richard B. Anderson

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

To counter past assertions that permutation testing is not distribution-free, this article clarifies that the critical p value (alpha) in permutation testing is not a Type I error rate and that a test's validity is independent of the concept of Type I error.


A Response To Anderson's (2013) Conceptual Distinction Between The Critical P Value And Type I Error Rate In Permutation Testing, Fortunato Pesarin, Stefano Bonnini May 2013

A Response To Anderson's (2013) Conceptual Distinction Between The Critical P Value And Type I Error Rate In Permutation Testing, Fortunato Pesarin, Stefano Bonnini

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Pesarin and Bonnini respond to Anderson's (2013) Conceptual Distinction between the Critical p value and Type I Error Rate in Permutation Testing


P-Values Versus Significance Levels, Phillip I. Good May 2013

P-Values Versus Significance Levels, Phillip I. Good

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

In this article Phillip Good responds to Richard Anderson's article Conceptual Distinction between the Critical p Value and the Type I Error Rate in Permutation Testing.


Conceptual Distinction Between The Critical P Value And The Type I Error Rate In Permutation Testing: Author Response To Peer Comments, Richard B. Anderson May 2013

Conceptual Distinction Between The Critical P Value And The Type I Error Rate In Permutation Testing: Author Response To Peer Comments, Richard B. Anderson

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Richard Anderson responds to comments regarding his target article Conceptual Distinction between the Critical p Value and the Type I Error Rate in Permutation Testing.


Views On Sexual Assault Among Ifc Fraternities, Steven Legore Mar 2013

Views On Sexual Assault Among Ifc Fraternities, Steven Legore

Statistics

The data collection and analysis for this project was performed for a consulting client Cierra, a fourth year Sociology major that works at the Safer Office on campus. She went to the consulting center on campus for help with the analysis of her project. She wanted to survey the IFC fraternities at Cal Poly on their views on sexual assault and rape. Thirteen IFC fraternities were surveyed with a total of 488 respondents. The responses to the 30 question True/False survey were used to evaluate the respondent’s empathy towards women, hostility towards women, and sexual aggression. Another research ...


A Note On The Indeterminacy And Arbitrariness Of Pena’S Method Of Construction Of Synthetic Indicators, Sudhanshu K. Mishra Mar 2012

A Note On The Indeterminacy And Arbitrariness Of Pena’S Method Of Construction Of Synthetic Indicators, Sudhanshu K. Mishra

Sudhanshu K Mishra

In this paper we demonstrate that Pena’s method of construction of a synthetic indicator is very sensitive to the order in which the constituent variables (whose linear aggregation yields the synthetic indicator) are arranged. Since m number of constituent variables may be arranged in m-factorial ways, even a moderately large m can give rise to a very large number of synthetic indicators from which one cannot choose the one which best represents the constituent variables. Given that an analyst has too little information as to the order in which a sizeable number of constituent variables must be arranged so ...


Beyond Multiple Regression: Using Commonality Analysis To Better Understand R2 Results, Russell Warne Sep 2011

Beyond Multiple Regression: Using Commonality Analysis To Better Understand R2 Results, Russell Warne

Russell T Warne

Multiple regression is one of the most common statistical methods used in quantitative educational research. Despite the versatility and easy interpretability of multiple regression, it has some shortcomings in the detection of suppressor variables and for somewhat arbitrarily assigning values to the structure coefficients of correlated independent variables. Commonality analysis—heretofore rarely used in gifted education research—is a statistical method that partitions the explained variance of a dependent variable into nonoverlapping parts according to the independent variable(s) that are related to each portion. This Methodological Brief includes an example of commonality analysis and equations for researchers who wish ...