Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Navigating Generosity: A Comparative Analysis Of Charitable Donations Around The Great Recession Of 2008, Micah Blomberg

Economics Student Theses and Capstone Projects

This paper studies donations to non-profit organizations in the US and how they reacted to The Great Recession of 2008. I find statistically significant drop-offs in multiple donative subcategories, including religion, education, human services, public society benefits, and arts, culture, and humanities, making up over 50% of total donations. Donation levels after the 2008 crash tend to be slightly downward sticky, meaning the rate of increase is larger after the treatment effect. These increased rates of return allow for market correction post-recession but still reveal a deadweight loss when comparing trends in OLS betas before and after the recession, meaning …

Regional Commercial Bank Lending To Small Businesses In The Wake Of The Great Recession, Boris D. Higgins

Hunt Institute Working Paper Series

The purpose of this paper is to document and explain the state by state variation in commercial bank lending to small businesses during the Great Recession. To accomplish this purpose will require several steps. These steps include showing the evidence of the variation in lending across states, the theoretical causes and the empirical findings of a capital supply gap based on market imperfections and employing OLS estimation method on carefully selected economic variables. The empirical results indicate that economic conditions, borrower characteristics and lender characteristics influence lending variation where these results can help in policy formulation.

The Economic Ferocity Of Policy, Giana Depaul

Helm's School of Government Conference - American Revival: Citizenship & Virtue

Each day, as the Dow Jones rises and falls, Congress similarly passes and fails legislation. These two seemingly continuous cycles intersect to the point that the two structures appear affixed. For centuries, this has posed an age-old question: is it policy that influences the economic system or is it the economic system itself that molds policy decision-making? Renowned economist Adam Smith is famous for his works detailing the autonomous nature of the economic system. Smith views policy as only a small roadblock in the master strategy of the economic flow of life. The Great Depression and the 2008 Recession, however, …

Assessing The Odds Of A Us Recession, Thomas Lam, David Fernandez

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

In this commentary, SMU Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI) Principal Researcher Thomas Lam and SKBI Director SMU Professor of Finance (Practice) Dave Fernandez offer their perspectives on the current multifaceted and highly charged US recession debate. While America is currently not in a downturn, the near-term odds of one have edged up, according to models based on key monthly and weekly indicators.

Student Outcomes And Spending On Teachers In The Aftermath Of Recession, Howard J. Wall

Missouri Policy Journal

This short paper looks for evidence of a link between K-12 education spending and student outcomes in Missouri during the years following the Great Recession. There are two reasons why this period is of interest. First, several studies have argued that an erosion in student outcomes occurred in many states during the period because severe budget crises led to spending cuts for K-12 education. Second, because the spending cuts were larger and more sustained than is typical, any negative effects on student outcomes would be exacerbated and more apparent. Thus, the period might be useful statistically given that causal links …

Unwilling Gamblers And Loaded Dice: Considering Recession And Crisis As A Natural Effect Of Financial Capitalism, Darlene N. Moorman

The Downtown Review

Under financial capitalism, ordinary people are increasingly becoming 'unwilling gamblers' of a risky and unstable system. This paper explores the social and institutional change behind the neoliberal movement and considers how the politics and policies of neoliberalism have contributed to a certain environment of financial instability. Looking at the changing nature of the economy, the rapid expansion of the financial sector, and the persisting issue of moral hazard underlying risky and speculative behaviors among other items, reveals a financial system in which recessions and crises can be considered a natural, although not inevitable, effect.

The Boosted Hp Filter Is More General Than You Might Think, Ziwei Mei, Peter C. B. Phillips, Zhentao Shi

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

The global financial crisis and Covid recession have renewed discussion concerning trend-cycle discovery in macroeconomic data, and boosting has recently upgraded the popular HP filter to a modern machine learning device suited to data-rich and rapid computational environments. This paper sheds light on its versatility in trend-cycle determination, explaining in a simple manner both HP filter smoothing and the consistency delivered by boosting for general trend detection. Applied to a universe of time series in FRED databases, boosting outperforms other methods in timely capturing downturns at crises and recoveries that follow. With its wide applicability the boosted HP filter is …

Gender Differences In Labor Market Outcomes During The Covid-19 Pandemic, Cassidy Bowes

Economics

In the events of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Department of Homeland security released guidelines on who would be an essential worker and required to keep going to work for the benefit of society. Two of the industries deemed essential were healthcare and education, both of which are heavily concentrated by female workers. In this study, I use Current Population Survey data spanning November 2019 to December 2021 to test for gender differences in earnings among those working in the healthcare and education occupations during the pandemic. I estimate a regression model which includes controls for time trends and other factors, …

The Prisoner Plateau: How Prisons Affect Rural Economies, Andi Ellis

Belmont University Research Symposium (BURS)

For the last several decades, rural communities in the United States have struggled to keep their economies afloat. In an effort to revitalize such economies, local leaders have bid on being the host communities for prisons– both federal and private. Do these prison facilities actually affect rural economies? Equally, how do these prison hosting communities differ from neighboring counties that do not have prisons? By examining various rural prison counties from across the country, as well as their non-prison county counterparts, I argue that, despite an undeniable uptick in jobs, the quality of life in these communities is often unchanged, …

Three Essays Examining The Effects Of Labor Market Conditions On College Enrollment And Completion, Dezhi Jiang

Graduate Research Theses & Dissertations

This research explores the causal effects of labor market conditions on college enrollment and attainment of high school graduates and answers the following questions: Does leaving high school in unfavorable labor market conditions cause a higher probability of college enrollment? Is this effect different between gender and across racial/ethnic groups? Does this effect vary regarding cognitive ability? Does this effect change over cohorts/generations? And does the positive effect on college enrollment in the short run translate into a positive effect on college degree attainment later?

The analysis that uses the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (NLSY97) data suggests that …

Crime, Crisis And Economic Growth: An Investigation Of Socio-Economic Determinants Of Crimes In The Indian States, Ankita Thapa

Masters Theses

This paper investigates the impact of socio-economic conditions on five major crime heads from 2001-2019 using a panel data set for the Indian states. The paper focus on the great recession of 2008-09, economic growth of the states, and deterrence variables. The paper employed two estimation procedures: panel Fixed-Effect and two-stage least square-fixed effect (2SLS-FE). The 2SLS-FE is preferred over the fixed effect method, where poverty is treated as an endogenous variable with higher education and social sector expenditure as instrumental variables. A dummy variable is used for the period of the great recession. A square of state GDP per …

An Exploration Of The Impact Of Economic Recessions On The S&P 500 And Its Sectors, Weston Sizemore

Finance Undergraduate Honors Theses

The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is a method of predicting future stock prices based on past returns. Specific areas of CAPM analysis utilize regression analysis to accomplish this goal. Historic prices and returns for a specific stock in a company, or even whole sectors of the economy, are compared with the corresponding returns for the market. There have been several historical recessions in United States history, as well as a current, ongoing recession. These recessions, along with their causes and effects, will be discussed extensively in this paper. This paper utilizes an analysis of the Capital Asset Pricing Model …

The Housing Market And The Covid-19 Pandemic: Implications For Las Vegas, Phoenix, Riverside, Los Angeles, Orlando, And New Orleans, Jenny Schuetz, Sarah Crump

Policy Briefs and Reports

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted virtually every part of the U.S. economy in the past year, and wreaked havoc on people’s daily lives. Housing markets are no exception. Millions of renters have fallen behind on their rent, fearing eviction while accumulating debts they cannot pay. At the same time, prices for owner-occupied housing have soared while the inventory of for-sale homes has plummeted. In this brief, we analyze several measures of housing distress from 2007 to 2019 for six metro areas, chosen based on their housing and labor market characteristics. Los Angeles, Riverside, Las Vegas, and Phoenix were among the …

Economic Costs Of Elevated Public Debt Levels During Banking-Crisis Recessions, Gavin T. Shilling

Honors Projects

The Great Recession of 2007 and 2008 exposed the risks of excessive borrowing. We learned the essential economic principle that greater leverage harbors greater risk. Although this global economic contraction was driven primarily by booming private credit expansion, economically inefficient incentives in the public sector, such as short-term reelection concerns, may lead politicians to engage in rash deficit- financed, fiscal spending. The primary purpose of this research is to assess the economic costs of heightened, preexisting government leverage on real economic outcomes during recessionary periods, focusing on both banking and non-banking crisis recessions. In both advanced economies and emerging economies, …

Explaining The Nonlinear Response Of Stock Markets To Oil Price Shocks, Diego Escobari, Shahil Sharma

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications and Presentations

This paper is set to reconcile the existent conflicting empirical evidence on the effect of oil prices on stock prices. We estimate various nonlinear models where the response changes according to a first-order Markov switching process. More importantly, we model the transition probabilities between the high- and low-response regimes to depend on state variables to allow us to explain the forces behind the asymmetry in the response. The results show statistically significant asymmetries that can be explained by economic recessions and to a lower extent depend on the magnitude of the oil price shift and on whether the shift is …

Visualizing Vulnerable Jobs In Nevada, Peter Grema, Vanessa Booth, Caitlin J. Saladino, William E. Brown Jr.

Economic Development & Workforce

This Fact Sheet summarizes data on Nevada and its metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) from the national report “Visualizing Vulnerable Jobs Across America,” by Marcela Escobari, Natalie Geismar, and Dhruv Gandhi of the Brookings Institution. Data from the original report and accompanying database are used to highlight the total number and share of vulnerable jobs in the Silver State during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Frm Financial Risk Meter, Andrija Mihoci, Michael Althof, Cathy Yi-Hsuan Chen, Wolfgang Karl Hardle

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

A systemic risk measure is proposed accounting for links and mutual dependencies between financial institutions utilizing tail event information. Financial Risk Meter (FRM) is based on least absolute shrinkage and selection operator quantile regression designed to capture tail event co-movements. The FRM focus lies on understanding active set data characteristics and the presentation of interdependencies in a network topology. Two FRM indices are presented, namely, FRM@Americas and FRM@Europe. The FRM indices detect systemic risk at selected areas and identify risk factors. In practice, FRM is applied to the return time series of selected financial institutions …

State-Level Fiscal Policy And Economic Growth: Assessing Recovery From The 2007 Recession, Nathan Barron

Master's Theses

This research examines state-level fiscal policy responses to the 2007 recession, with a particular focus on the short- and long-run effectiveness of government spending at achieving economic growth. Using OLS regression models to test the impact of government spending, institutional constraints, and economic policy climates on economic growth, this research shows that government spending has a positive impact on growth that decreases into a negative impact over time. Additionally, institutional constraints are consistently found to hinder growth while the effects of policy climate are mixed.

Cross-Border Technology Investments In Recessions, Juliana Yu Sun, Huanhuan Zheng

Research Collection School Of Economics

Utilizing industry-level foreign direct investment (FDI) from 72 source markets to 122 destination markets between 2003 to 2018, we apply a differences-in-differences approach to evaluate the response of technology FDI to recessions. We find that research and development (R&D) intensive FDI drops when the destination market is in recession and the source market is in a normal state, and recovers to the pre-recession levels when both destination and source markets are in recession. The result is particularly pronounced in deep and long recessions, during the propagation stage of recessions, and in destination markets with stronger intellectual property protection, looser FDI …

From Economic Slowdown To Recession, Iryna Demko, Iryna V. Lendel, Merissa Piazza

All Maxine Goodman Levin School of Urban Affairs Publications

The most recent recession, known as the “Great Recession,” began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009. The recession affected the entire U.S., but its impacts were not uniform. Unfortunately, Ohio was a primary example of the recession’s iniquities as the recession lasted five months longer here compared to the rest of the nation. Now, with the COVID-19 pandemic, we face further uncertainty and another recession with economic activity contracting “sharply and abruptly” across the entire U.S. This research brief examines the state of the economy in the U.S. and Northeast Ohio pre-pandemic (2019) and provides an analysis of …

Coronavirus And The Economy: Repurposing Production, Helping The Needy, Saving Businesses, And Encouraging Job Preservation, Timothy J. Bartik, Brad J. Hershbein

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.

The Long-Term Effects Of Labor Market Entry In A Recession: Evidence From The Asian Financial Crisis, Eleanor Jawon Choi, Jaewoo Choi, Hyelim Son

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper investigates the long-term effects of initial labor market conditions by comparing cohorts who graduated from college before, during, and after the 1997–1998 Asian financial crisis in South Korea. We measure the overall welfare effect by examining their labor market activities, family formation, and household finances. Using data from 20 waves of the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study, we find a substantial and persistent reduction in employment, earnings, marriage, fertility, and asset building among men who graduated during a recession. For women, limited job opportunities at graduation result in an increase in childbearing. Our results suggest that labor …

A Critical Study On Global Recession - 2008 And Its Impact On India, P. Magesh Ph.D., A. Nandagopal Ph.D.

International Review of Business and Economics

In recent years, the Indian Economy experienced a pronounced slow down in economic activity. In many ways, the slow down looked like a typical recession driven by a fall in aggregate supply. Seven notable shocks explain this event. They are ● Increase in excess demand ● Increase Money supply ● Fall in the real GDP ● Fall in the composition of agriculture to GDP ● Increase in unemployment rate ● Lower capital inflow ● Unfavorable BoT The responsiveness of fiscal and monetary policy quickly to this events and their impact in rectifying the problems is analyzed in this paper.

Forecasting State Tax Revenues, Recessions And Their Uncertainties Using Mixed-Frequency Data, Model Averaging, Bootstrap, Roc Analysis And Machine Learning, Cheng Yang

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

In recent years models with mixed frequency have been extensively used to forecast low-frequency variables such as GDP and inflation, but we are one of the first to use this framework in state government revenue forecasting. New York State had a record of passing late budgets before. In order to facilitate budget negotiations, which often center on forecasts, we develop a Mixed-Data Sampling (MIDAS) model for revenue forecasting using jagged edge data sets in the first chapter. We forecast yearly tax revenues using monthly data on tax receipts and also two dynamic factors extracted from a set of selected monthly …

Dendrochronological Assessment Of The Easton Glacier's Terminus Position Over The Last 150 Years, Monica A. Villegas

WWU Graduate School Collection

The Easton glacier on Mt. Baker, Washington has been the focus of several studies looking at ecological succession, glacier recession, and glacier mass balance. Several of these studies have noted a gap in the literature regarding the Easton glaciers terminus position in the early twentieth century. This study has refined the glacier's terminus position by using dendrochronological methods and identified the latest Little Ice Age end moraines. A chronology of the Easton glaciers terminus position overtime was created showing its recession and advancement since 1879. The rates of recession and advancement were calculated during this time highlighting the unpredictable behavior …

Recessions Or Partisanship: What Explains Climate Skepticism In The U.S.?, Abhishek S. Sambatur

Undergraduate Economic Review

This paper investigates the variations in public mood pertaining to climate skepticism and attempts to empirically assess whether economic recessions or partisanship help explain aggregate-level trends and movements across a 16-year time horizon. Public survey data from the iPoll and Gallup Organization were used to construct the Climate Change Skeptic Index (CCSI) that served as a proxy to capture public opinion trends in skepticism across the U.S. A two-part vector autoregressive model suggests that while economic recessions might be causally linked to climate skepticism, partisanship plays a more influential role in explaining it over time. The key result is that …

The Economic Impacts Of Casino Gaming In Mississippi: Local, Regional, National And International Considerations, Janelle Townes

Dissertations

Casino development and the proliferation of the casino gaming industry has centered on the prevailing issue of economic impact. The purpose of this study was to determine what impact casinos in Mississippi have on the economy of the host communities. In this quantitative descriptive research study, the primary employment, tourism and revenue data were gathered from records provided by the Mississippi Gaming Commission to test the level of change that occurred in the host communities of Mississippi casinos between 2000 and 2015, a period when Mississippi communities experienced severe economic crises due in part to natural diseasters and economic recession. …

The Effect Of Economic Downturns On Mortality Rates, Bethany Koch

Celebration of Learning

My research attempts to show the effect that economic downturns have on overall mortality rates in the United States. I compare mortality rates for several states from 2000 to 2010, attempting to find a pattern in the individual states of lower mortality rates subsequent to the 2008 recession. I do so by running a regression equation to find any sign of correlations.

Study Abroad Or Study Away? An Honors Project, Audra Delaney

Honors Projects

In college, studying abroad can be a way for students to gain cultural exposure while learning about a part of the world that interests them. Like study abroad programs, there are also study away programs that offer similar experiences but are based in the United States. Today, those who are new to college/university communities and are choosing between these experiences are members of Generation Z. Currently the largest generation, those in Generation Z are future thinkers with drive to be very financially responsible (Harland Clarke, 2017). This study aims to find out what first-year Honors College students at Bowling Green …

The Business Cycle And Health: An Analysis Of How Macroeconomic Conditions Impact Health Outcomes In The U.S., Talitha Kumaresan

Honors Theses

The U.S. spends about twice as much per person on healthcare, yet the disease burden remains higher in the U.S. than in comparable countries (Sawyer and Cox 2018; Sawyer and Gonzales 2017). Although health status is perceived to be an outcome of individual decision making, the business cycle also affects health. While the effect of macroeconomic shocks on health outcomes has been studied extensively, results remain inconclusive. This analysis uses longitudinal data over 30 years and panel data models to examine the effect of macroeconomic conditions on obesity, diabetes, hypertension, depression, congestive heart failure, and heart attack or myocardial infarction. …