Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Leverage Cycle Theory Of Economic Crises And Booms, John Geanakoplos

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Traditionally, booms and busts have been attributed to investors' excessive or insufficient demand, irrational exuberance and panics, or fraud. The leverage cycle begins with the observation that much of demand is facilitated by borrowing, and that crashes often occur simultaneously with the withdrawal of lending.

Lenders are worried about default, and therefore attach credit terms like collateral or minimum credit ratings to their contracts. The credit surface, depicting interest rates as a function of the credit terms, emerges in leverage cycle equilibrium. Investors and lenders (and regulators) choose where on the credit surface they trade. The leverage cycle …

Nonparty Interests In Contract Law, Omri Ben-Shahar, David A. Hoffman, Cathy Hwang

All Faculty Scholarship

Contract law has one overarching goal: to advance the legitimate interests of the contracting parties. For the most part, scholars, judges, and parties embrace this party primacy norm, recognizing only a few exceptions, such as mandatory rules that bar enforcement of agreements that harm others. This Article describes a distinct species of previously unnoticed contract law rules that advance nonparty interests, which it calls “nonparty defaults."

In doing so, this Article makes three contributions to the contract law literature. First, it identifies nonparty defaults as a judicial technique. It shows how courts deviate from the party primary norm with surprising …

Prosecuting Civil Asset Forfeiture On Contingency Fees: Looking For Profit In All The Wrong Places, Louis S. Rulli

All Faculty Scholarship

Civil asset forfeiture has strayed far from its intended purpose. Designed to give law enforcement powerful tools to combat maritime offenses and criminal enterprises, forfeiture laws are now used to prey upon innocent motorists and lawful homeowners who are never charged with crimes. Their only sins are that they are carrying legal tender while driving on busy highways or providing shelter in their homes to adult children and grandchildren who allegedly sold small amounts of low-level drugs. Civil forfeiture abuses are commonplace throughout the country with some police even armed with legal waivers for property owners to sign on the …

Law Library Blog (November 2020): Legal Beagle's Blog Archive, Roger Williams University School Of Law

Law Library Newsletters/Blog

No abstract provided.

Economic Analysis Of Jewish Law, Keith Sharfman

Touro Law Review

No abstract provided.

An Economic Analysis Of Student Loan Default, Arianna Castonguay

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Cumulative student loan debt in the United States has now surpassed $1.5 trillion. Moreover, since the turn of the century, cohort default rates of these loans have steadily risen across all types of institutions. The latest data from the U.S. Department of Education shows 10.8 percent of borrowers who entered repayment in fiscal year 2015 have defaulted within three years. In turn, the first chapter of this paper summarizes student loan policies as well as trends in debt and default. Furthermore, it highlights the consequences of high student debt and default for individual borrowers and the economy. Results show evidence …

Are Cds Auctions The Tail Wagging The Dog? An Empirical Study Of Corporate Bond Return Volatility At The Time Of Default, Jennifer Mace

CMC Senior Theses

Over the past decade, numerous engineered credit events and cases of market participants manipulating bond prices to influence Credit Default Swap (CDS) auction payouts have occurred. These cases have become increasingly common, and the CFTC has stated they may constitute market manipulation and undermine not only the CDS market but also the credit derivative and default markets. Although there is a plethora of news and media coverage on publicized cases, there is no previous empirical research on evidence of these practices. This paper is motivated by the desire to determine if there is indirect evidence of bond price manipulation around …

The Effects Of Real Words On The Pronunciation Of Nonwords, Jill Metzger

Honors Scholar Theses

Certain letter strings in the English language can be pronounced in multiple different ways. This study looked at how college students’ pronunciations of nonwords with ambiguous letter strings were influenced by real word primes. The nonwords were directly derived from real words with identical letter strings. Subjects saw real words that had either the default pronunciation or alternative pronunciation of that letter string. Results showed there were a higher proportion of alternative responses to nonwords primed by words with alternative pronunciations. These findings support previous research that shows the pronunciation of nonwords can be affected by priming or tasks that …

An Investigation Into Hybrid Models Of Mindreading: A Dual Type Theory Account, Alexandra Jewell

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Mindreading, or attributing mental states to others, involves instances of simulation and theory; but there is controversy over which one of these methods is the primary, or default, mechanism. I propose that mindreading is a theory-based process, such that we utilize theory over simulation when both are available and reliable. To argue my position, I suggest that theory has been inaccurately portrayed in past discussion and that we possess two types: a connectionist network (tt1) and a traditional, conceptual folk-psychology (tt2). By dividing theory in this way, we can explain common phenomena of mindreading that other theory-based accounts do not …

A No-Tribunal Sdrm And The Means Of Binding Creditors To The Terms Of A Restructuring Plan, Charles W. Mooney Jr.

All Faculty Scholarship

The paper addresses two discrete but related and essential attributes of a sovereign debt restructuring mechanism (SDRM). It first considers the merits and feasibility of an SDRM that would provide a procedure for proposing and adopting a restructuring plan for a sovereign debtor’s debt which would not involve any tribunal or administrator (a No-Tribunal SDRM). The No-Tribunal SDRM would undertake the restructuring as if the sovereign debtor and its creditors were subject to the Model CAC regime. In addition to embodying a novel and interesting structure for an SDRM—and one that eliminates the difficult hurdle of identifying a satisfactory tribunal—adoption …

A Framework For A Formal Sovereign Debt Restructuring Mechanism: The Kiss Principle (Keep It Simple, Stupid) And Other Guiding Principles, Charles W. Mooney Jr.

All Faculty Scholarship

Given the ongoing work on a multilateral restructuring process for sovereign debt in the UN, consideration of the content and implementation of a sovereign debt restructuring mechanism (SDRM) is timely. The framework and content of the SDRM proposed here differs from earlier proposals in several important respects. For the classification and supermajority voting of claims in the approval a restructuring plan, it would mimic the structure and operation of the model collective action clauses (Model CACs) proposed by the International Capital Markets Association. Restructuring under a qualified sovereign debt restructuring law (QSDRL) would be guided by four principles: (i) observe …

Peer-To-Peer Lending Industry And Risk Control Measures, Ran Wang

Honors Theses

With the rise of the Internet, a new form of financing, peer-to-peer lending (P2PL), has embraced its opportunities in the 21st Century. After Zopa, the world's first financial company that offers P2P loans, was founded in the UK, the U.S. also seized the trend and witnessed the launch of Prosper in 2006, followed by Lending Club. The IPO of Lending Club in 2014 created a faster momentum for the development of similar companies in the industry and cleared some concerns regarding SEC regulations. However, given the business model that P2PL companies adopt and the economic characteristics of P2P loans borrowers, …

Housing And The Macroeconomy, Emily Corinne Marshall

Theses and Dissertations--Economics

This dissertation studies the impact of several different housing market features on the macroeconomy.

Chapter 1 augments the New-Keynesian model with collateral constraints to incorporate long-term debt in order to examine the interaction between multi-period loans, leverage, and indeterminacy. Allowing firms to borrow heavily against commercial housing by increasing the loan-to-value ratio from 0.01 to 0.90 reduces the level of steady state output approximately 3.19% and decreases social welfare. In contrast, increasing the debt limit of households increases steady state output by 2.72%. Social welfare is maximized under a utilitiarian function when households can borrow at a loan-to-value ratio of …

Mandatory Rules And Default Rules In Insurance Contracts, Tom Baker, Kyle D. Logue

All Faculty Scholarship

The economic analysis of contract law can be organized around two general questions: (1) what are the efficient or welfare-maximizing substantive rules of contract law; and (2) once those rules have been identified, when if ever should they be made mandatory and when should they be merely “default rules” that the parties can contract around if they wish? Much of contract theory over the past twenty years has been devoted to developing answers to those two questions. The same two questions can be posed with respect to the rules of insurance law. Although previous scholars have examined particular substantive doctrines …

The Cape Town Convention’S Improbable-But-Possible Progeny Part Two: Bilateral Investment Treaty-Like Enforcement Mechanism, Charles W. Mooney Jr.

All Faculty Scholarship

This Essay is Part Two of a two-part essay series that outlines and evaluates two possible future international instruments. Each instrument draws substantial inspiration from the Cape Town Convention and its Aircraft Protocol (together, the “Convention”). The Convention governs the secured financing and leasing of large commercial aircraft, aircraft engines, and helicopters. It entered into force in 2006. It has been adopted by sixty-six Contracting States (fifty-eight of which have adopted the Aircraft Protocol), including the U.S., China, the E.U., India, Ireland, Luxembourg, Russia, and South Africa.

This Part of the Essay explores whether an investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) feature …

2014-1 Default And Repayment Among Baccalaureate Degree Earners, Lance J. Lochner, Alexander Monge-Naranjo

Centre for Human Capital and Productivity. CHCP Working Papers

No abstract provided.

2014-5 Student Loans And Repayment: Theory, Evidence And Policy, Lance J. Lochner, Alexander Monge-Naranjo

Centre for Human Capital and Productivity. CHCP Working Papers

No abstract provided.

The Pricing Of Credit Default Swaps Under A Generalized Mixed Fractional Brownian Motion, Xinjiang He, Wenting Chen

Faculty of Engineering and Information Sciences - Papers: Part A

In this paper, we consider the pricing of the CDS (credit default swap) under a GMFBM (generalized mixed fractional Brownian motion) model. As the name suggests, the GMFBM model is indeed a generalization of all the FBM (fractional Brownian motion) models used in the literature, and is proved to be able to effectively capture the long-range dependence of the stock returns. To develop the pricing mechanics of the CDS, we firstly derive a sufficient condition for the market modeled under the GMFBM to be arbitrage free. Then under the risk-neutral assumption, the CDS is fairly priced by investigating the two …

Collateral Equilibrium: A Basic Framework, John Geanakoplos, William R. Zame

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Much of the lending in modern economies is secured by some form of collateral: residential and commercial mortgages and corporate bonds are familiar examples. This paper builds an extension of general equilibrium theory that incorporates durable goods, collateralized securities and the possibility of default to argue that the reliance on collateral to secure loans and the particular collateral requirements chosen by the social planner or by the market have a profound impact on prices, allocations, market structure and the efficiency of market outcomes. These findings provide insights into housing and mortgage markets, including the sub-prime mortgage market.

Micro-Finance Competition: Motivated Micro-Lenders, Double-Dipping And Default, Brishti Guha, Prabal Roy Chowdhury

Research Collection School Of Economics

We develop a tractable model of competition among motivated MFIs. We find that equilibria may or may not involve double-dipping (and consequently default), with there being double-dipping whenever the MFIs are very profit-oriented. Moreover, in an equilibrium with double-dipping, borrowers who double-dip are actually worse off compared to those who do not. Further, for intermediate levels of motivation, there can be multiple equilibria, with a doubledipping equilibrium co-existing with a no default equilibrium. Interestingly, an increase in MFI competition can lower efficiency, as well as increase the extent of double-dipping and default. Further, the interest rates may go either way, …

Interpretation And Construction In Altering Rules, Gregory Klass

Georgetown Law Faculty Publications and Other Works

This essay is a response to Ian Ayres's, "Regulating Opt-Out: An Economic Theory of Altering Rules," 121 Yale L.J. 2032 (2012). Ayres identifies an important question: How does the law decide when parties have opted-out of a contractual default? Unfortunately, his article tells only half of the story about such altering rules. Ayres cares about rules designed to instruct parties on how to get the terms that they want. By focusing on such rules he ignores altering rules designed instead to interpret the nonlegal meaning of the parties' acts or agreement. This limited vision is characteristic of economic approaches to …

Who Defaults On Their Home Mortgage?, Eric Doviak, Sean P. Macdonald

Publications and Research

Since Feb. 13, 2010, detailed information on every home mortgage default and foreclosure in New York State must be filed with the New York State Department of Financial Services (DFS). The data come from pre-foreclosure filing (PFF) notices that mortgage servicers must send to both the borrower and the DFS 90 days prior to initiating the foreclosure process and when a foreclosure has commenced. Pairing the PFF data with data on originations from the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) reveals the race and ethnicity of borrowers who defaulted on their home mortgages. HMDA analyses consistently reveal strong racial and ethnic …

Leverage And Default In Binomial Economies: A Complete Characterization, Ana Fostel, John Geanakoplos

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Our paper provides a complete characterization of leverage and default in binomial economies with financial assets serving as collateral. Our Binomial No-Default Theorem states that any equilibrium is equivalent (in real allocations and prices) to another equilibrium in which there is no default. Thus actual default is irrelevant, though the potential for default drives the equilibrium and limits borrowing. This result is valid with arbitrary preferences and endowments, contingent or non-contingent promises, many assets and consumption goods, production, and multiple periods. We also show that no-default equilibria would be selected if there were the slightest cost of using collateral or …

Endogenous Leverage In A Binomial Economy: The Irrelevance Of Actual Default, Ana Fostel, John Geanakoplos

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We show that binomial economies with financial assets are an informative and tractable model to study endogenous leverage and collateral equilibrium: endogenous leverage can be highly volatile, but it is always easy to compute. The possibility of default can have a dramatic effect on equilibrium, if collateral is scarce, yet we prove the No-Default Theorem asserting that, without loss of generality, there is no default in equilibrium. Thus potential default has a dramatic effect on equilibrium, but actual default does not. This result is valid with arbitrary preferences, contingent promises, many assets and consumption goods, production, and multiple periods. On …

Leverage And Default In Binomial Economies: A Complete Characterization, Ana Fostel, John Geanakoplos

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Our paper provides a complete characterization of leverage and default in binomial economies with financial assets serving as collateral. First, our Binomial No-Default Theorem states that any equilibrium is equivalent (in real allocations and prices) to another equilibrium in which there is no default. Thus actual default is irrelevant, though the potential for default drives the equilibrium and limits borrowing. This result is valid with arbitrary preferences and endowments, arbitrary promises, many assets and consumption goods, production, and multiple periods. We also show that the no-default equilibrium would be selected if there were the slightest cost of using collateral or …

Leverage And Default In Binomial Economies: A Complete Characterization, Ana Fostel, John Geanakoplos

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Our paper provides a complete characterization of leverage and default in binomial economies with financial assets serving as collateral. Our Binomial No-Default Theorem states that any equilibrium is equivalent (in real allocations and prices) to another equilibrium in which there is no default. Thus actual default is irrelevant, though the potential for default drives the equilibrium and limits borrowing. This result is valid with arbitrary preferences and endowments, contingent or non-contingent promises, many assets and consumption goods, production, and multiple periods. We also show that no-default equilibria would be selected if there were the slightest cost of using collateral or …

The Upside Of Government Default, Jeffrey Rogers Hummel

Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

The Upside Of Government Default, Jeffrey Rogers Hummel

Jeffrey Rogers Hummel

No abstract provided.

Some Possible Consequences Of A U.S. Government Default, Jeffrey Rogers Hummel

Faculty Publications

The U.S. government faces a looming fiscal crisis. A default on Treasury securities appears inevitable. The short-run consequences for the economy will be painful. But the long-run consequences, both economic and political, could be beneficial. The most important long-run political benefit would be the imposition of fiscal discipline. The long-run economic benefit would be the alleviation of the future tax liabilities required to service the national debt, irrespective of whether those liabilities are correctly anticipated or not. A historical examination of the state government defaults of the 1840s provides one case study where the long-run consequences were indeed salutary.

Some Possible Consequences Of A U.S. Government Default, Jeffrey Rogers Hummel

Jeffrey Rogers Hummel

The U.S. government faces a looming fiscal crisis. A default on Treasury securities appears inevitable. The short-run consequences for the economy will be painful. But the long-run consequences, both economic and political, could be beneficial. The most important long-run political benefit would be the imposition of fiscal discipline. The long-run economic benefit would be the alleviation of the future tax liabilities required to service the national debt, irrespective of whether those liabilities are correctly anticipated or not. A historical examination of the state government defaults of the 1840s provides one case study where the long-run consequences were indeed salutary.