Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

A Macroscopic Validation Of The Evacuation Simulation Prediction Tool On Highway Travel Times, Kay Fortinberry Borglum

Master's Theses - Daytona Beach

The purpose of this applied research study was to test the sensitivity of the Evacuation Simulation Prediction (ESP) tool in predicting travel time during high volume traffic periods. The discrete event-based simulation tool was designed to aid local evacuation planning contingencies. Research of the Florida Department of Transportation traffic count data demonstrated parallel trends in rush hour volume versus hurricane evacuation volume. A model validation was designed to test if the model closely predicted high volume travel on a major interstate. For this macroscopic sensitivity test, volume, travel time and speed were collected to examine the baseline predictability under crash …