Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

A Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Model With Time-Varying Correlations, Yiu Kuen Tse, Albert K.C. Tsui

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this article we propose a new multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) model with time-varying correlations. We adopt the vech representation based on the conditional variances and the conditional correlations. Whereas each conditional-variance term is assumed to follow a univariate GARCH formulation, the conditional-correlation matrix is postulated to follow an autoregressive moving average type of analog. Our new model retains the intuition and interpretation of the univariate GARCH model and yet satisfies the positive-definite condition as found in the constant-correlation and Baba-Engle-Kraft-Kroner models We report some Monte Carlo results on the finite-sample distributions of the maximum likelihood estimate of …

Forecasting Volatility In The New Zealand Stock Market, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This study evaluates the performance of nine alternative models for predicting stock price volatility using daily New Zealand data. The competing models contain both simple models such as the random walk and smoothing models and complex models such as ARCH-type models and a stochastic volatility model. Four different measures are used to evaluate the forecasting accuracy. The main results are the following: (1) the stochastic volatility model provides the best performance among all the candidates; (2) ARCH-type models can perform well or badly depending on the form chosen: the performance of the GARCH(3,2) model, the best model within the ARCH …

A Gaussian Approach For Continuous Time Models Of Short Term Interest Rates, Jun Yu, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper proposes a Gaussian estimator for nonlinear continuous time models of the short-term interest rate. The approach is based on a stopping time argument that produces a normalizing transformation facilitating the use of a Gaussian likelihood. A Monte Carlo study shows that the finite-sample performance of the proposed procedure offers an improvement over the discrete approximation method proposed by Nowman (1997). An empirical application to US and British interest rates is given.

Estimation Of The Stochastic Volatility Model By The Empirical Characteristic Function Method, J. Knight, S. Satchell, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

The stochastic volatility model has no closed form for its likelihood and hence the maximum likelihood estimation method is difficult to implement. However, it can be shown that the model has a known characteristic function. As a consequence, the model is estimable via the empirical characteristic function. In this paper, the characteristic function of the model is derived and the estimation procedure is discussed. An application is considered for daily returns of Australian/New Zealand dollar exchange rate. Model checking suggests that the stochastic volatility model together with the empirical characteristic function estimates fit the data well.

Neyman's Smooth Test And Its Applications In Econometrics, Anil K. Bera, Aurobindo Ghosh

Research Collection School Of Economics

No abstract provided.

Asset Prices, The Real Exchange Rate, And Unemployment In A Small Open Economy: A Medium-Run Structuralist Perspective, Hian Teck Hoon, Edmund S. Phelps

Research Collection School Of Economics

No abstract provided.

A Small-Sample Overlapping Variance-Ratio Test, Yiu Kuen Tse, K. W. Ng, Xibin Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

The null distribution of the overlapping variance-ratio (OVR) test of the random-walk hypothesis is known to be downward biased and skewed to the right in small samples. As shown by Lo and MacKinlay (1989), the test under-rejects the null on the left tail seriously when the sample size is small. This unfortunate property adversely affects the applicability of the OVR test to macroeconomic time series, which usually have rather small samples. In this paper we propose a modified overlapping variance-ratio statistic and derive its exact mean under the normality assumption. We propose to approximate the small-sample distribution of the modified …

By How Much Does Conflict Reduce Financial Development?, Tony Addison, Abdur Chowdhury, Syed M. Murshed

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

Financial development is vulnerable to social conflict. Conflict reduces the demand for domestic currency as a medium of exchange and a store of value. Conflict also leads to poor quality governance, including weak regulation of the financial system, thereby undermining the sustainability of financial institutions. Conflict therefore reduces the social return to financial liberalization and other financial-sector reforms. This paper presents a theoretical model integrating the effects of conflict and financial liberalization, and then tests the model on data for 79 countries. Using an explanatory variable that measures the intensity of conflict (from low to high) the results show that …

The Deaf Catholic, January-February 2002

ICDA The Deaf Catholic

A newsletter published for Deaf Catholics in USA

ICDA The Deaf CatholicFinding Aid

Judging By Heuristic: Cognitive Illusions In Judicial Decision Making, Chris Guthrie, Jeffrey J. Rachlinski, Andrew J. Wistrich

Vanderbilt Law School Faculty Publications

The institutional legitmacy of the judiciary depends on the quality of the judgments that judges make. Even the most talented and dedicated judges surely make occasional mistakes, but the public expects judges to avoid making systematic errors that favor particular parties or writing opinions that embed these mistakes into the substantive law. Psychological research on human judgment, however, suggests that this expectation might be unrealistic.

Characterizing Consumer Motivation As Individual Difference Factors: Augmenting The Sports Interest Inventory (Sii) To Explain Level Of Spectator Support, Daniel C. Funk, Daniel F. Mahony, Lynn L. Ridinger

Human Movement Studies & Special Education Faculty Publications

The central focus of this study was to examine how individual difference factors could be used to explain various levels of consumer support for a specific sport property. The present study extends the Sport Interest Inventory (SII) in order to enhance current understanding of consumer motives in relation to sport in general and women's competitive sport in particular. Confirmatory factor analysis confirmed the 12-item Sport Interest Inventory, measuring 14 individual difference factors related to spectator interest in soccer. Multiple Linear regression analysis revealed that five motivational characteristic--(a) sport interest, (b) team interest, (c) vicarious achievement, (d) role modeling, and (e) …

Reshaping World Politics: Ngos, The Internet, And Global Civil Society, Ann Florini

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

This largely descriptive book sets out three questions of interest to international relations scholars and policy-makers: What is global civil society? What are its origins? And what are the roles of individuals in creating and maintaining it? After a brief literature review, the book provides a definition: global civil society is 'a socially constructed and transnationally defined network of relationships that provides ideologically variable channels of opportunity for political involvement' (p. 19). This definition reflects the book's grounding in 'people-centered' International Relations theory, drawing on the English school of Wight and Bull and paralleling the American constructivist paradigm to focus …

Local Arbitration And Conflict Deferment In Punjab, Pakistan, Stephen Lyon

Faculty & Staff Publications

In Pakistan different conflicts require different legal venues and different stages of the same conflict may require plural legal venues. Attempts by the Pakistan government to undermine traditional conflict arbitration have not eradicated these processes. This paper argues that none of the current legal venues available to Pakistanis is sufficient without recourse to the others. The three venues are Islamic law (shari‚Äôat), the Pakistani civil code and traditional arbitration systems in the form of jirga or panchayat (or their equivalents). While the first two may arguably be classified as modernist legal systems with compatible objectives, the third is distinctly different. …

Baker, Jane Stark (Helm), B. 1942 (Sc 1355), Manuscripts & Folklife Archives

MSS Finding Aids

Finding aid and scan (Click on "Additional Files" below" for Manuscripts Small Collection 1355. Letter, 19 January 2000, written by Jane S. Baker, Glasgow, Kentucky, in which Baker recalls her aunt Margie Helm, who was an outstanding Western Kentucky University librarian.

Ain’T Nothin’ But A Heartache? Love And Dating On Campus, Susan Murray

Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

How Is Constitutional Law Made?, Tracey E. George, Robert J. Pushaw, Jr.

Vanderbilt Law School Faculty Publications

Professors George and Pushaw review Maxwell L. Stearns’ book, “Constitutional Process: A Social Choice Analysis of Supreme Court Decision-making.” In his book, Stearns demonstrates that the U.S. Supreme Court fashions constitutional law through process-based rules of decision such as outcome voting, stare decisis, and justiciability. Employing “social choice” economic theory, Professor Stearns argues that the Court strives to formulate rules that promote rationality and fairness. Perhaps the greatest strength of Stearns’ book is that he presents a grand unified theory of the Court’s rules of constitutional process and the resulting development of doctrine. This strength can also be a weakness, …

There Is Nothing More Diverse Than "New", Frederick A. Miller, Roger Gans

Communication Faculty Publications

In the organizational competition for talent, successful retention of newly recruited workers is at least as important as the initial hire. Still, many organizations fail to establish a sense of inclusion for new people in much the same way they often fail to create a sense of inclusion for people of color, women, people with foreign accents, or anyone with obvious differences from the “traditional group.” In most organizations, even those that have embarked on “diversity initiatives,” newly hired people often do not feel welcomed. Consequently, turnover rates in the first two years of employment are seven times greater than …

Is There Such A Thing As "Christian" Sex?, John M. Berecz

Faculty Publications

It is challenging for Christian pastors and counselors to discuss human sexuality in ways which do not alienate liberals on the left, conservatives on the right, or biologists in the middle. Feminists frequently see males as dominating or insensitive, and conservative Christians sometimes feed into this by emphasizing patriarchal models of marriage as if this were the biblical paradigm for all time. Evolutionary biologists view sexuality primarily as a means of propagating the species. Into this cacophony of strident voices the Christian seeks to inject a calm but clear message: Christian sexuality is primarily a search for intimacy. In a …

Warren County, Kentucky - Justices Of The Peace (Sc 1342), Manuscripts & Folklife Archives

MSS Finding Aids

Finding aid and scan (Click on "Additional Files" below) for Small Collection 1342. Notice, 25 February 1808, of the removal of John Bailey, Bowling Green, Kentucky, as Warren County Justice of the Peace by Kentucky governor Christopher Greenup.

The Political Personality Of U.S. President George W. Bush, Aubrey Immelman

Psychology Faculty Publications

This paper presents the results of an indirect assessment of the personality of U.S. president George W. Bush, conducted 1998–2000 from the conceptual perspective of personologist Theodore Millon.

Psychodiagnostically relevant data regarding Bush was extracted from biographical sources and media reports and synthesized into a personality profile using the Millon Inventory of Diagnostic Criteria (MIDC), which yields 34 normal and maladaptive personality classifications congruent with Axis II of DSM–IV.

The personality profile yielded by the MIDC was analyzed in accordance with interpretive guidelines provided in the MIDC and Millon Index of Personality Styles manuals. Bush was found to be …