Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Mapping Cooperation: Insights Into Colombia's Humanitarian Response To Migration From Venezuela, Liss Dayana Romero, Jose J. Padilla, Katherine Palacio, Erika Frydenlund

VMASC Publications

Introduction: Since 2015, Colombia has faced a significant humanitarian challenge, receiving 2.9 million displaced Venezuelans. This study examines organizational cooperation in the humanitarian response to this migration crisis, aiming to understand the coordination dynamics among key organizations and actors.

Methods: Our research combined interviews and web scraping to gather data on key actors and their relationships in the humanitarian response. We employed Social Network Analysis (SNA) to examine these relationships and the collaborative strategies among entities, focusing on how they address the migration challenges.

Results: The results indicate that cooperation occurred through mediated channels, where established NGOs collaborated via coordination …

The Shortfalls Of Vulnerability Indexes For Public Health Decision-Making In The Face Of Emergent Crises: The Case Of Covid-19 Vaccine Uptake In Virginia, Lydia Cleveland Sa, Erika Frydenlund

VMASC Publications

Equitable and effective vaccine uptake is a key issue in addressing COVID-19. To achieve this, we must comprehensively characterize the context-specific socio-behavioral and structural determinants of vaccine uptake. However, to quickly focus public health interventions, state agencies and planners often rely on already existing indexes of "vulnerability." Many such "vulnerability indexes" exist and become benchmarks for targeting interventions in wide ranging scenarios, but they vary considerably in the factors and themes that they cover. Some are even uncritical of the use of the word "vulnerable," which should take on different meanings in different contexts. The objective of this study is …

Computational Decision Support For Socio-Technical Awareness Of Land-Use Planning Under Complexity—A Dam Resilience Planning Case Study, Andreas Tolk, Jennifer A. Richkus, F. Leron Shults, Wesley J. Wildman

VMASC Publications

Land-use planning for modern societies requires technical competence as well as social competence. We therefore propose an integrative solution enabling better land-use planning and management through better-informed decision-making. We adapt a method developed for cross-disciplinary team building to identify the stakeholders and their various objectives and value systems. We use these results to populate artificial societies embedded into a dynamic data analytics framework as a tool to identify, explore, and visualize the challenges resulting from the different objectives and value systems in land-use planning and management. To prove the feasibility of the proposed solution, we present two use cases from …

Understanding And Assessing Demographic (In)Equity Resulting From Extreme Heat Exposure Due To Lack Of Tree Canopies In Norfolk, Va Using Agent-Based Modeling, Virginia Zamponi, Kevin O'Brien, Erik Jensen, Brandon Feldhaus, Russell Moore, Christopher J. Lynch, Ross Gore

VMASC Publications

Prolonged exposure to extreme heat can result in illness and death. In urban areas of dense concentrations of pavement, buildings, and other surfaces that absorb and retain heat, extreme heat conditions can arise regularly and create harmful environmental exposures for residents daily during certain parts of the year. Tree canopies provide shade and help to cool the environment, making mature trees with large canopies a simple and effective way to reduce urban heat. We develop a demographically representative 1 (agent): 1 (person) agent-based model to understand the extent to which different demographics of residents in Norfolk, VA are equitably shaded …

Estimating The Health Effects Of Adding Bicycle And Pedestrian Paths At The Census Tract Level: Multiple Model Comparison, Ross J. Gore, Christopher Lynch, Craig Jordan, Andrew Collins, R. Michael Robinson, Gabrielle Fuller, Pearson Ames, Prateek Keerthi, Yash Kandukuri

VMASC Publications

Background: Adding additional bicycle and pedestrian paths to an area can lead to improved health outcomes for residents over time. However, quantitatively determining which areas benefit more from bicycle and pedestrian paths, how many miles of bicycle and pedestrian paths are needed, and the health outcomes that may be most improved remain open questions.

Objective: Our work provides and evaluates a methodology that offers actionable insight for city-level planners, public health officials, and decision makers tasked with the question “To what extent will adding specified bicycle and pedestrian path mileage to a census tract improve residents’ health outcomes over time?” …

Combining Green Metrics And Digital Twins For Sustainability Planning And Governance Of Smart Buildings And Cities, Casey R. Corrado, Suzanne M. Delong, Emily G. Holt, Edward Y. Hua, Andreas Tolk

VMASC Publications

Creating a more sustainable world will require a coordinated effort to address the rise of social, economic, and environmental concerns resulting from the continuous growth of cities. Supporting planners with tools to address them is pivotal, and sustainability is one of the main objectives. Modeling and simulation augmenting digital twins can play an important role to implement these tools. Although various green best practices have been utilized over time and there are related attempts at measuring green success, works in the published literature tend to focus on addressing a single problem (e.g., energy efficiency), and a comprehensive approach that takes …

Human Ergonomic Simulation To Support The Design Of An Exoskeleton For Lashing/De-Lashing Operations Of Containers Cargo, Francesco Longo, Antonio Padovano, Vittorio Solina, Virginia D' Augusta, Stefan Venzl, Roberto Calbi, Michele Bartuni, Ornella Anastasi, Rafael Diaz

VMASC Publications

Lashing and de-lashing operations of containers cargo on board containerships are considered as quite strenuous activities in which operators are required to work continuously over a 6 or 8 hours shift with very limited break. This is mostly because containerships need to leave the port as soon as possible and containers loading and unloading operations must be executed with very high productivity (stay moored in a port is a totally unproductive time for a ship and a loss-making business for a shipping company). Operators performing lashing and de-lashing operations are subjected to intense ergonomic stress and uncomfortable working postures. To …

Fuzzy Cognitive Map-Based Knowledge Representation Of Hazardous Industrial Operations, Francesco Longo, Antonio Padovano, Letizia Nicoletti, Caterina Fusto, Mohaiad Elbasheer, Rafael Diaz

VMASC Publications

Hazardous industrial operations are highly stochastic, still human-dependent, and risky. Operators working in such an environment must understand the complex interrelation between several factors contributing to safe and effective operations. Therefore, being able to predict the effects of their actions on provoking or mitigating possible accidents is crucial. This study aims to utilize fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) to model the expert’s reasoning about occupational health and safety (OHS) in confined space. This knowledge is used by operators to build their mental models. The developed FCM displays all the possible incidents of a confined space and links these incidents with all …

Short-Range Forecasting Of Covid-19 During Early Onset At County, Health District, And State Geographic Levels Using Seven Methods: Comparative Forecasting Study, Christopher Lynch, Ross Gore

VMASC Publications

BACKGROUND:

Forecasting methods rely on trends and averages of prior observations to forecast COVID-19 case counts. COVID-19 forecasts have received much media attention, and numerous platforms have been created to inform the public. However, forecasting effectiveness varies by geographic scope and is affected by changing assumptions in behaviors and preventative measures in response to the pandemic. Due to time requirements for developing a COVID-19 vaccine, evidence is needed to inform short-term forecasting method selection at county, health district, and state levels.

OBJECTIVE:

COVID-19 forecasts keep the public informed and contribute to public policy. As such, proper understanding of forecasting purposes …

Human Factors, Ergonomics And Industry 4.0 In The Oil & Gas Industry: A Bibliometric Analysis, Francesco Longo, Antonio Padovano, Lucia Gazzaneo, Jessica Frangella, Rafael Diaz

VMASC Publications

Over the last few years, the Human Factors and Ergonomics (HF/E) discipline has significantly benefited from new human-centric engineered digital solutions of the 4.0 industrial age. Technologies are creating new socio-technical interactions between human and machine that minimize the risk of design-induced human errors and have largely contributed to remarkable improvements in terms of process safety, productivity, quality, and workers’ well-being. However, despite the Oil&Gas (O&G) sector is one of the most hazardous environments where human error can have severe consequences, Industry 4.0 aspects are still scarcely integrated with HF/E. This paper calls for a holistic understanding of the changing …

Agent-Based Modelling Of Values: The Case Of Value Sensitive Design For Refugee Logistics, Christine Boshuijzen-Van Burken, Ross J. Gore, Frank Dignum, Lamber Royakkers, Phillip Wozny, F. Leron Shults

VMASC Publications

We have used value sensitive design as a method to develop an agent-based model of values in humanitarian logistics for refugees. Schwartz’s theory of universal values is implemented in the model in such a way that agents can make value trade-offs, which are operationalized into a measure of refugee wellbeing and a measure of public opinion about how the refugee logistics is being handled. By trying out different ‘value scenarios’, stakeholders who are responsible for, or involved in refugee logistics can have insights into the effects of various value choices. The model is visualized and made usable as a platform …

Shipbuilding Supply Chain Framework And Digital Transformation: A Project Portfolios Risk Evaluation, Rafael Diaz, Katherine Smith, Rafael Landaeta, Antonio Padovano

VMASC Publications

Program portfolio managers in digital transformation programs have a need for knowledge that can guide decisions related to the alignment of program investments with the sustainability and strategic objectives of the organization. The purpose of this research is to illustrate the utility of a framework capable of clarifying the cost-benefit tradeoffs stemming from assessing digitalization program investment risks in the military shipbuilding sector. Our approach uses Artificial Neural Network to quantify benefits and risks per project while employing scenario analysis to quantify the effects of operational constraints. A Monte Carlo model is used to generate data samples that support the …

Incorporating Diegetic Elements To Increase Engagement In Games For Engineering Education, Katherine Smith, Yuzhong Shen, Anthony W. Dean

VMASC Publications

One of the difficulties in developing educational games is maintaining player engagement. This engagement is critical for games to provide effective learning experiences. One way to increase engagement in games is to limit interruptions during game play. In educational games, this can be accomplished by incorporating learning or problem-solving elements diegetically. Diegetic elements are those that are part of the game scene. With this in mind, a series of games for Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) education has been developed focusing on content in courses that are prerequisites to the engineering curriculum. These games cover topics in pre-calculus, calculus, …

Temporal And Spatiotemporal Investigation Of Tourist Attraction Visit Sentiment On Twitter, Jose J. Padilla, Hamdi Kavak, Christopher J. Lynch, Ross J. Gore, Saikou Y. Diallo

VMASC Publications

In this paper, we propose a sentiment-based approach to investigate the temporal and spatiotemporal effects on tourists' emotions when visiting a city's tourist destinations. Our approach consists of four steps: data collection and preprocessing from social media; visitor origin identification; visit sentiment identification; and temporal and spatiotemporal analysis. The temporal and spatiotemporal dimensions include day of the year, season of the year, day of the week, location sentiment progression, enjoyment measure, and multi-location sentiment progression. We apply this approach to the city of Chicago using over eight million tweets. Results show that seasonal weather, as well as special days and …

Forecasting Changes In Religiosity And Existential Security With An Agent-Based Model, Ross J. Gore, Carlos Lemos, F. Leron Shults, Wesley J. Wildman

VMASC Publications

We employ existing data sets and agent-based modeling to forecast changes in religiosity and existential security among a collective of individuals over time. Existential security reflects the extent of economic, socioeconomic and human development provided by society. Our model includes agents in social networks interacting with one another based on the education level of the agents, the religious practices of the agents, and each agent's existential security within their natural and social environments. The data used to inform the values and relationships among these variables is based on rigorous statistical analysis of the International Social Survey Programme Religion Module (ISSP) …

A Generative Model Of The Mutual Escalation Of Anxiety Between Religious Groups, F. Leron Shults, Ross Gore, Wesley J. Wildman, Christopher J. Lynch, Justin E. Lane, Monica D. Toft

VMASC Publications

We propose a generative agent-based model of the emergence and escalation of xenophobic anxiety in which individuals from two different religious groups encounter various hazards within an artificial society. The architecture of the model is informed by several empirically validated theories about the role of religion in intergroup conflict. Our results identify some of the conditions and mechanisms that engender the intensification of anxiety within and between religious groups. We define mutually escalating xenophobic anxiety as the increase of the average level of anxiety of the agents in both groups overtime. Trace validation techniques show that the most common conditions …

Protecting The Most Vulnerable, Joshua G. Behr

VMASC Publications

No abstract provided.

Research, Cooperation, A Vision For Combatting Rising Seas, Joshua Behr

VMASC Publications

No abstract provided.

Social Phenomena: From Data Analysis To Models, By Bruno Gonçalves And Nicola Perra. Springer-Verlag: Berlin, 2015 (Book Review), Erika Frydenlund

VMASC Publications

[First Paragraph] Social Phenomena: From Data Analysis to Models features a diverse collection of researchers united around the pursuit of innovative ways to use increasingly large and accessible datasets to model human movement, behavior, and social networks. The researchers contribute to this conversation using a variety of modeling paradigms. As a computational social science reference book, the strength of this collection is its service as a starting point for understanding the potential of current technologies to enhance the scope of models of social behavior. The methods presented here are easily extensible beyond the case study applications presented.

Integrating A Simple Traffic Incident Model For Rapid Evacuation Analysis, Andrew J. Collins, R. Michael Robinson, Peter Foytik, Craig Jordan, Barry C. Ezell

VMASC Publications

Road transportation networks are a segment of society's critical infrastructure particularly susceptible to service disruptions. Traffic incidents disrupt road networks by producing blockages and increasing travel times, creating significant impacts during emergency events such as evacuations. For this reason, it is extremely important to incorporate traffic incidents in evacuation planning models. Emergency managers and decision makers need tools that enable rapid assessment of multiple, varied scenarios. Many evacuation simulations require high-fidelity data input making them impractical for rapid deployment by practitioners. Since there is such variation in evacuation types and the method of disruption, evacuation models do not require the …

Emergency Department Frequent Utilization For Non-Emergent Presentments: Results From A Regional Urban Trauma Center Study, Joshua G. Behr, Rafael Diaz

VMASC Publications

Objectives
First, to test a model of the drivers of frequent emergency department utilization conceptualized as falling within predisposing, enabling, and need dimensions. Second, to extend the model to include social networks and service quality as predictors of frequent utilization. Third, to illustrate the variation in thresholds that define frequent utilization in terms of the number of emergency department encounters by the predictors within the model.

Data Source
Primary data collection over an eight week period within a level-1 trauma urban hospital's emergency department.

Study Design
Representative randomized sample of 1,443 adult patients triaged ESI levels 4'5. Physicians …

Building Resiliency In Response To Sea Level Rise And Recurrent Flooding: Comprehensive Planning In Hampton Roads, Joshua G. Behr, Rafael Diaz, Molly Mitchell

VMASC Publications

[Introduction]

Over the past few decades, the Hampton Roads region, with its extensive coastline, has been experiencing more frequent flooding from surges and precipitation caused by tropical storms, nor’easters and heavy thunderstorms (Figure 1). Recurrent flooding is “flooding that occurs repeatedly in the same area over time due to precipitation events, high tides or storm surge.”¹ The recurrence of tidal/surge flooding in Hampton Roads has increased from 1.7 days of “nuisance” flooding per year in 1960 to 7.3 days per year in 2014.² Although there is no definitive region-wide data to document the increases in precipitation-induced flooding, there …

Panic That Spreads Sociobehavioral Contagion In Pedestrian Evacuations, Terra Elzie, Erika Frydenlund, Andrew J. Collins, R. Michael Robinson

VMASC Publications

Crowds are a part of everyday public life, from stadiums and arenas to school hallways. Occasionally, pushing within the crowd spontaneously escalates to crushing behavior, resulting in injuries and even death. The rarity and unpredictability of these incidents provides few options to collect data for research on the prediction and prevention of hazardous emergent behaviors in crowds. This study takes a close look at the way states of agitation, such as panic, can spread through crowds. Group composition—mainly family groups composed of members with differing mobility levels—plays an important role in the spread of agitation through the crowd, ultimately affecting …

Estimating Cost Adjustments Required To Accomplish Target Savings In Chronic Disease Management Interventions: A Simulation Study, Rafael Diaz, Joshua G. Behr, Bruce S. Britton

VMASC Publications

Chronic diseases are persistent ailments that are not preventable or curable with medication or vaccination. Many of the leading chronic conditions in industrialized societies may be related to lifestyle choices. The prevalence of these chronic conditions significantly affects the health, suffering, and longevity of patients. This paper demonstrates the utility of system dynamics as an approach to model and simulate the behavior of key cost factors in the implementation of population health management interventions. The study uses modeling and simulation as an evaluative method to identify potential savings stemming from an intervention within a well-defined population group. The model is …

Analysis Of The Cost Of Emergency Managers' Meeting Load: A Hampton Road Case-Study, Andrew J. Collins, David W. Flanagan, Barry Ezell

VMASC Publications

Preparation for a disaster is not something that can be done by a single organization thus there is a need for coordination between them. Meetings and joint exercises are one means of coordination used by the emergency management community. Meetings and exercises take time, including transportation of personnel and arrangements, and time is money. With limited budgets, emergency managers need to make hard decisions about how their time is allocated. This paper describes a cost model for meeting analysis and discusses a case study that looks at the holistic time spent on meetings and exercises, by personnel, for the Hampton …

Integrating Truck Emissions Cost In Traffic Assignment, Peter Foytik, R. Michael Robinson

VMASC Publications

The adverse impacts of greenhouse gasses (GHG) and the imperative for reducing the existing rate of GHG production are well established. In the United States, the largest source of GHG emissions from human activities is from burning fossil fuels, primarily for the generation of electricity and transportation. The transportation sector accounts for 28% of all U.S. GHG production. Heavy-duty vehicles, such as large freight trucks, account for nearly one-fifth of the U.S. total, and this fraction is expected to grow rapidly. Consequently, many efforts are being used to reduce the total emissions of freight trucks. Most efforts emphasize one of …

You Are What You Tweet: Connecting The Geographic Variation In America's Obesity Rate To Twitter Content, Ross J. Gore, Saikou Diallo, Jose Padilla

VMASC Publications

We conduct a detailed investigation of the relationship among the obesity rate of urban areas and expressions of happiness, diet and physical activity on social media. We do so by analyzing a massive, geo-tagged data set comprising over 200 million words generated over the course of 2012 and 2013 on the social network service Twitter. Among many results, we show that areas with lower obesity rates: (1) have happier tweets and frequently discuss (2) food, particularly fruits and vegetables, and (3) physical activities of any intensity. Additionally, we provide evidence that each of these results offer different and unique insight …

Exploring A Toll Auction Mechanism Enabled By Vehicle-To-Infrastructure Technology, Andrew J. Collins, Erika Frydenlund, R. Michael Robinson, Mecit Cetin

VMASC Publications

High-occupancy toll (HOT) lanes—an increasingly popular solution for congested roadway networks—give drivers the option to access express lanes. The cost of entry often varies with demand, although no standard method of optimizing these price points exists. Using the principles of a Vickrey auction that incentivizes true-value bids, this paper proposes a tolling system that uses vehicle-to-infrastructure technology to optimize toll operator revenue with HOT lane usage. In the scenario, a roadway network consists of a HOT lane and a general-purpose lane, each with identical physical properties. Drivers can access the HOT lane at the start of the facility or at …

Hurricane Preparedness: Community Vulnerability And Medically Fragile Populations, Joshua G. Behr, Rafael Diaz

VMASC Publications

No abstract provided.

Toward A Formalism Of Modeling And Simulation Using Model Theory, Saikou Y. Diallo, Jose Padilla, Ross Gore, Heber Herencia-Zapana, Andreas Tolk

VMASC Publications

This article proposes a Modeling and Simulation (M&S) formalism using Model Theory. The article departs from the premise that M&S is the science that studies the nature of truth using models and simulations. Truth in models and simulations is relative as they seek to answer specific modeling questions. Consequently, truth in M&S is relative because every model is a purposeful abstraction of reality. We use Model Theory to express the proposed formalism because it is built from the premise that truth is relative. The proposed formalism allows us to: (1) deduce formal definitions and explanations of areas of study in …