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Articles 1 - 30 of 73
Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
The Role Of Career And Wage Incentives In Labor Productivity: Evidence From A Two-Stage Field Experiment In Malawi, Hyuncheol Kim, Seonghoon Kim, Thomas Kim
The Role Of Career And Wage Incentives In Labor Productivity: Evidence From A Two-Stage Field Experiment In Malawi, Hyuncheol Kim, Seonghoon Kim, Thomas Kim
Research Collection School Of Economics
We study how career and wage incentives affect labor productivity through self-selection and incentive effect channels using a two-stage field experiment in Malawi. First, recent secondary school graduates were hired with either career or wage incentives. After employment, a half of workers with career incentives randomly received wage incentives, and a half of workers with wage incentives randomly received career incentives. Career incentives attract higher-performing workers than wage incentives, but do not increase productivity conditional on selection. Wage incentives increase productivity for those recruited through career incentives. Observable characteristics are limited in explaining selection effects of entry-level workers.
Uniform Inference In Panel Autoregression, John C. Chao, Peter C. B. Phillips
Uniform Inference In Panel Autoregression, John C. Chao, Peter C. B. Phillips
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper considers estimation and inference concerning the autoregressive coefficient (rho) in a panel autoregression for which the degree of persistence in the time dimension is unknown. Our main objective is to construct confidence intervals for rho that are asymptotically valid, having asymptotic coverage probability at least that of the nominal level uniformly over the parameter space. The starting point for our confidence procedure is the estimating equation of the Anderson-Hsiao (AH) IV procedure. It is well known that the AH IV estimation suffers from weak instrumentation when rho is near unity. But it is not so well known that …
Har Testing For Spurious Regression In Trend, Peter C. B. Phillips, Xiaohu Wang, Yonghui Zhang
Har Testing For Spurious Regression In Trend, Peter C. B. Phillips, Xiaohu Wang, Yonghui Zhang
Research Collection School Of Economics
The usual t test, the t test based on heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent (HAC) covariance matrix estimators, and the heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation robust (HAR) test are three statistics that are widely used in applied econometric work. The use of these significance tests in trend regression is of particular interest given the potential for spurious relationships in trend formulations. Following a longstanding tradition in the spurious regression literature, this paper investigates the asymptotic and finite sample properties of these test statistics in several spurious regression contexts, including regression of stochastic trends on time polynomials and regressions among independent random walks. Concordant …
Sieve Estimation Of Time-Varying Panel Data Models With Latent Structures, Liangjun Su, Xia Wang, Sainan Jin
Sieve Estimation Of Time-Varying Panel Data Models With Latent Structures, Liangjun Su, Xia Wang, Sainan Jin
Research Collection School Of Economics
We propose a heterogeneous time-varying panel data model with a latent group structure that allows the coefficients to vary over both individuals and time. We assume that the coefficients change smoothly over time and form different unobserved groups. When treated as smooth functions of time, the individual functional coefficients are heterogeneous across groups but homogeneous within a group. We propose a penalized-sieve-estimation-based classifier-Lasso (C-Lasso) procedure to identify the individuals’ membership and to estimate the group-specific functional coefficients in a single step. The classification exhibits the desirable property of uniform consistency. The C-Lasso estimators and their post-Lasso versions achieve the oracle …
Growth Effects Of Additive And Multiplicative Robots Alongside Conventional Machines, Hian Teck Hoon
Growth Effects Of Additive And Multiplicative Robots Alongside Conventional Machines, Hian Teck Hoon
Research Collection School Of Economics
We study the effects of introducing two different types of robots (additive and multiplicative) in an infinitely lived one-sector aggregative model with malleable capital on wages. The wage effects of these two polar cases are dramatically different. Given malleable capital that can be retrofitted for use either as conventional machines or as robots, we show that when it is profitable for firms to adopt additive robots in the production process, the real wage drops on impact and remains permanently at the lower level even as total malleable capital accumulates. However, when multiplicative robots are adopted, we show that while the …
Detecting Financial Collapse And Ballooning Sovereign Risk, Peter C. B. Phillips, Sp Shi
Detecting Financial Collapse And Ballooning Sovereign Risk, Peter C. B. Phillips, Sp Shi
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper proposes a new model for capturing discontinuities in the underlying financial environment that can lead to abrupt falls, but not necessarily sustained monotonic falls, in asset prices. This notion of price dynamics is consistent with existing understanding of market crashes, which allows for a mix of market responses that are not universally negative. The model may be interpreted as a martingale composed with a randomized drift process that is designed to capture various asymmetric drivers of market sentiment. In particular, the model is capable of generating realistic patterns of price meltdowns and bond yield inflations that constitute major …
Strategically Simple Mechanisms, Tilman Börgers, Jiangtao Li
Strategically Simple Mechanisms, Tilman Börgers, Jiangtao Li
Research Collection School Of Economics
We define and investigate a property of mechanisms that we call "strategic simplicity," and that is meant to capture the idea that, in strategically simple mechanisms, strategic choices require limited strategic sophistication. We define a mechanism to be strategically simple if choices can be based on first-order beliefs about the other agents' preferences and first-order certainty about the other agents' rationality alone, and there is no need for agents to form higher-order beliefs, because such beliefs are irrelevant to the optimal strategies. All dominant strategy mechanisms are strategically simple. But many more mechanisms are strategically simple. In particular, strategically simple …
Innovation, Growth, And Dynamic Gains From Trade, Wen-Tai Hsu, Raymond G. Riezman, Ping Wang
Innovation, Growth, And Dynamic Gains From Trade, Wen-Tai Hsu, Raymond G. Riezman, Ping Wang
Research Collection School Of Economics
How large are the welfare gains from trade? Would such gains be significantly amplified in the long run when productivity is endogenously enhanced? To address these questions, we focus on the dynamic effect of trade, in particular, how trade affects the incentives for technological advancement. We construct an innovation-based endogenous growth model of North-South trade. There are two types of innovation: one by the North to upgrade the general purpose technology (GPT) and another by all countries to advance entrepreneurial knowledge for developing differentiated products. We find sizable welfare gains from trade, about 5.3% when compared to autarky. The gains …
Uncertainty, Depreciation And Industry Growth, Roberto Samaiego, Juliana Yu Sun
Uncertainty, Depreciation And Industry Growth, Roberto Samaiego, Juliana Yu Sun
Research Collection School Of Economics
When investment is irreversible, firms invest only when the mismatch between their productivity and their capital stock is large. This suggests that two factors should be related to the frequency of mismatch: volatility and capital depreciation. A canonical model of industry dynamics with investment irreversibility displays slow growth in times of high uncertainty, and decline is particularly pronounced in industries where capital depreciation is rapid. A differences-in-differences regression using industry growth data from a large sample of countries supports this result.
Quantifying Quality Specialization Across Space: Skills, Sorting, And Agglomeration, Pao-Li Chang, Angdi Lu, Xin Yi
Quantifying Quality Specialization Across Space: Skills, Sorting, And Agglomeration, Pao-Li Chang, Angdi Lu, Xin Yi
Research Collection School Of Economics
We quantify the supply-side determinants of quality specialization across space. Specifically, we complement the quality specialization literature in international trade and study how larger cities specialize in higher-quality goods within a country. In our general equilibrium model, firms in larger cities produce goods with higher quality, because agglomeration benefits accrue more to skilled workers who are also more efficient in upgrading quality. Two channels are at work in our model. The first channel is through the treatment effect of agglomeration, such that firms become more productive if they locate in a larger city. The second channel works through sorting, in …
A Demand And Supply Game Exploring Global Supply Chains, Bei Hong
A Demand And Supply Game Exploring Global Supply Chains, Bei Hong
Research Collection School Of Economics
In this article, the author describes a classroom experiment in which participants make decisions to achieve the lowest-cost production. Student volunteers acting as smartphone companies are provided with confidential information representing their own cost of production and are asked to make trade decisions to form a supply chain at the lowest possible cost. This interactive classroom experiment facilitates an understanding and appreciation of the basic demand and supply model. Students also explore the motivations, facilitators, and impediments of global supply chains. Suggestions are made to expand the game by incorporating more sophisticated models of the global supply chain, and also …
Rationalizable Implementation Of Correspondences, Takashi Kunimoto, Roberto Serrano
Rationalizable Implementation Of Correspondences, Takashi Kunimoto, Roberto Serrano
Research Collection School Of Economics
A new condition, which we call uniform monotonicity, is shown to be necessary and almost sufficient for rationalizable implementation of corre-spondences. Uniform monotonicity is much weaker than Maskin monotonic-ity and reduces to it in the case of functions. Maskin monotonicity, the key condition for Nash implementation, had also been shown to be necessary for rationalizable implementation of social choice functions. Our conclusion is that the conditions for rationalizable implementation are not only starkly different from, but also much weaker than those for Nash implementation, when we consider social choice correspondences. Thus, dropping rational ex-pectations significantly expands the class of rules …
Parametric Rationing With Uncertain Needs, Yan Long, Jingyi Xue
Parametric Rationing With Uncertain Needs, Yan Long, Jingyi Xue
Research Collection School Of Economics
We study resource allocation in the face of uncertain needs. We extend Young (1987)’s parametric rules to the uncertain context. We re-establish the axiomatic char-acterization of parametric rules and show the optimality of the rules.
Continuous Implementation With Small Transfers, Yi-Chun Chen, Takashi Kunimoto, Yifei Sun
Continuous Implementation With Small Transfers, Yi-Chun Chen, Takashi Kunimoto, Yifei Sun
Research Collection School Of Economics
The robust mechanism design literature investigates the global robustness of op-timal mechanisms to large changes in the environment. Acknowledging the global robustness as an overly demanding requirement, we propose continuous implementa-tion as a local robustness of optimal mechanisms to small changes in the environment. We say that a social choice function is continuously implementable “with small trans-fers” if there exists a mechanism which yields the outcome close to the desired one for all types close to the designer’s initial model. We show that when a generic cor-relation condition is imposed on the class of interdependent values environments, any incentive compatible …
Financing Singapore’S Smes And The Crowdfunding Industry In Singapore, Swee Liang Tan, Yoke Wang Tok, Thitipat Chansriniyom
Financing Singapore’S Smes And The Crowdfunding Industry In Singapore, Swee Liang Tan, Yoke Wang Tok, Thitipat Chansriniyom
Research Collection School Of Economics
As new digital technologies emerge that make the provision of financial services more efficient, they hold the potential to address barriers that SMEs face in accessing credit. This paper found empirical evidence that crowdfunding improved SMEs’ timeliness to pay debt. Anecdotal evidence from SMEs suggests that getting crowdfunding loans also induced financing from banks. In just four years, Singapore’s crowdfunding volumes have grown rapidly to make it the top crowdfunding hub in Southeast Asia. The rapid development of Singapore’s crowdfunding industry can be attributed to its higher GDP per capita, higher level of financial sector development and greater availability of …
Non-Separable Models With High-Dimensional Data, Liangjun Su, T Ura, Yc Zhang
Non-Separable Models With High-Dimensional Data, Liangjun Su, T Ura, Yc Zhang
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper studies non-separable models with a continuous treatment when the dimension of the control variables is high and potentially larger than the effective sample size. We propose a three-step estimation procedure to estimate the average, quantile, and marginal treatment effects. In the first stage we estimate the conditional mean, distribution, and density objects by penalized local least squares, penalized local maximum likelihood estimation, and numerical differentiation, respectively, where control variables are selected via a localized method of L-1-penalization at each value of the continuous treatment. In the second stage we estimate the average and marginal distribution of the potential …
An Interview Question That Brought About Some Thoughts, Zhengxiao Wu
An Interview Question That Brought About Some Thoughts, Zhengxiao Wu
Research Collection School Of Economics
We tackle the question posed by journalist Mehdi Hassan – on how many Chinese lives could be lost or would have to be lost to justify a single percentage of economic growth. We considered a utility maximization problem where the utility function is defined to be the sum of the life expectancy at birth for all Chinese nationals.
Estimation And Inference Of Fractional Continuous-Time Model With Discrete-Sampled Data, Xiaohu Wang, Weilin Xiao, Jun Yu
Estimation And Inference Of Fractional Continuous-Time Model With Discrete-Sampled Data, Xiaohu Wang, Weilin Xiao, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper proposes a two-stage method for estimating parameters in a para-metric fractional continuous-time model based on discrete-sampled observations. In the first stage, the Hurst parameter is estimated based on the ratio of two second-order differences of observations from different time scales. In the second stage, the other parameters are estimated by the method of moments. All estimators have closed-form expressions and are easy to obtain. A large sample theory of the pro-posed estimators is derived under either the in-fill asymptotic scheme or the double asymptotic scheme. Extensive simulations show that the proposed theory performs well in finite samples. Two …
Singapore As A Sustainable City: Past, Present And The Future, Tomoki Fujii, Rohan Ray
Singapore As A Sustainable City: Past, Present And The Future, Tomoki Fujii, Rohan Ray
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper outlines Singapore’s major sustainability challenges and its policy response in the areas of land use, transportation, waste management, water, and energy. We review the current and past Concept Plans from the perspective of sustainable land use and provide an overview of transportation policy in Singapore. We also examine Singapore’s policies to manage increasing wastes and review the four tap water management plan. Finally, we look at various initiatives by the government for sustainable use of energy. While Singapore has been successful in many ways in transforming itself into one of the most prosperous and sustainable cities in the …
Forecasting Realized Volatility Using A Nonnegative Semiparametric Model, Anders Eriksson, Daniel P. A. Preve, Jun Yu
Forecasting Realized Volatility Using A Nonnegative Semiparametric Model, Anders Eriksson, Daniel P. A. Preve, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper introduces a parsimonious and yet flexible semiparametric model to forecastfinancial volatility. The new model extends a related linear nonnegative autoregressive modelpreviously used in the volatility literature by way of a power transformation. It is semiparametric inthe sense that the distributional and functional form of its error component is partially unspecified.The statistical properties of the model are discussed and a novel estimation method is proposed.Simulation studies validate the new method and suggest that it works reasonably well in finitesamples. The out-of-sample forecasting performance of the proposed model is evaluated against anumber of standard models, using data on S&P 500 …
Strong Consistency Of Spectral Clustering For Stochastic Block Models, Liangjun Su, Wuyi Wang, Yichong Zhang
Strong Consistency Of Spectral Clustering For Stochastic Block Models, Liangjun Su, Wuyi Wang, Yichong Zhang
Research Collection School Of Economics
In this paper we prove the strong consistency of several methods based on the spectral clustering techniques that are widely used to study the community detection problem in stochastic block models (SBMs). We show that under some weak conditions on the minimal degree, the number of communities, and the eigenvalues of the probability block matrix, the K-means algorithm applied to the eigenvectors of the graph Laplacian associated with its first few largest eigenvalues can classify all individuals into the true community uniformly correctly almost surely. Extensions to both regularized spectral clustering and degree-corrected SBMs are also considered. We illustrate the …
Hypothesis Testing, Specification Testing And Model Selection Based On The Mcmc Output Using R, Yong Li, Jun Yu, Tao Zeng
Hypothesis Testing, Specification Testing And Model Selection Based On The Mcmc Output Using R, Yong Li, Jun Yu, Tao Zeng
Research Collection School Of Economics
This chapter overviews several MCMC-based test statistics for hypothesis testing andspecification testing and MCMC-based model selection criteria developed in recentyears. The statistics for hypothesis testing can be viewed as the MCMC version ofthe “trinity” of test statistics based in maximum likelihood (ML), namely, the likelihoodratio (LR) test, the Lagrange multiplier (LM) test, and the Wald test. The model selection criteria correspond to two predictive distributions. One of them can be viewed asthe MCMC version of widely used information criterion, AIC. The asymptotic distributions of the test statistics and model selection criteria are discussed. The test statisticsand model selection criteria are …
Limit Theory For Moderate Deviation From Integrated Garch Processes, Yubo Tao
Limit Theory For Moderate Deviation From Integrated Garch Processes, Yubo Tao
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper develops the limit theory of the GARCH(1,1) process that moderately deviates from IGARCH process towards both stationary and explosive regimes. The asymptotic theory extends Berkes et al. (2005) by allowing the parameters to have a slower rate of convergence. The results can be applied to unit root test for processes with mildly-integrated GARCH innovations (e.g. Boswijk (2001), Cavaliere and Taylor (2007, 2009)) and deriving limit theory of estimators for models involving mildly-integrated GARCH processes (e.g. Jensen and Rahbek (2004), Francq and Zakoïan (2012, 2013).
Panel Threshold Regressions With Latent Group Structures, Ke Miao, Liangjun Su, Wendun Wang
Panel Threshold Regressions With Latent Group Structures, Ke Miao, Liangjun Su, Wendun Wang
Research Collection School Of Economics
In this paper, we consider the least squares estimation of a panel structure threshold re-gression (PSTR) model where both the slope coefficients and threshold parameters may exhibit latent group structures. We study the asymptotic properties of the estimators of the latent group structure and the slope and threshold coefficients. We show that we can estimate the latent group structure correctly with probability approaching 1 and the estimators of the slope and threshold coefficients are asymptotically equivalent to the infeasible estimators that are obtained as if the true group structures were known. We study likelihood-ratio-based inferences on the group-specific threshold parameters …
Equivalence Of Stochastic And Deterministic Mechanisms, Yi-Chun Chen, Jiangtao Li, Jiangtao Li, Yeneng Sun
Equivalence Of Stochastic And Deterministic Mechanisms, Yi-Chun Chen, Jiangtao Li, Jiangtao Li, Yeneng Sun
Research Collection School Of Economics
We consider a general social choice environment that has multiple agents, a finite set of alternatives, independent types, and atomless type distribution. We show that for any Bayesian incentive compatible mechanism, there exists an equivalent deterministic mechanism that (1) is Bayesian incentive compatible; (2) delivers the same interim expected allocation probabilities and the same interim expected utilities for all agents; and (3) delivers the same ex ante expected social surplus. This result holds in settings with a rich class of utility functions, multidimensional types, interdependent valuations, and in settings without monetary transfers. To prove our result, we develop a novel …
Random Mechanism Design On Multidimensional Domains, Shurojit Chatterji, Huaxia Zeng
Random Mechanism Design On Multidimensional Domains, Shurojit Chatterji, Huaxia Zeng
Research Collection School Of Economics
We study random mechanism design in an environment where the set of alternatives has a Cartesian product structure. We first show that all generalized random dictatorships are strategy-proof on a minimally rich domain if and only if the domain is a top-separable domain. We next generalize the notion of connectedness (Monjardet, 2009) to establish a particular class of top-separable domains: connected domains, and show that in the class of minimally rich and connected domains, the multidimensional single-peakedness restriction is necessary and sufficient for the design of a flexible random social choice function that is unanimous and strategy-proof. Such a flexible …
Improved Marginal Likelihood Estimation Via Power Posteriors And Importance Sampling, Yong Li, Nianling Wang, Jun Yu
Improved Marginal Likelihood Estimation Via Power Posteriors And Importance Sampling, Yong Li, Nianling Wang, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
The power-posterior method of Friel and Pettitt (2008) has been used to estimate the marginal likelihoods of competing Bayesian models. In this paper it is shown that the Bernstein-von Mises (BvM) theorem holds for the power posteriors under regularity conditions. Due to the BvM theorem, the power posteriors, when adjusted by the square root of the corresponding grid points, converge to the same normal distribution as the original posterior distribution, facilitating the implementation of importance sampling for the purpose of estimating the marginal likelihood. Unlike the power-posterior method that requires repeated posterior sampling from the power posteriors, the new method …
A Quantile-Based Asset Pricing Model, Tomohiro Ando, Jushan Bai, Mitohide Nishimura, Jun Yu
A Quantile-Based Asset Pricing Model, Tomohiro Ando, Jushan Bai, Mitohide Nishimura, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
It is well-known that the standard estimators of the risk premium in asset pricing models are biased when some price factors are omitted. To address this problem, we propose a novel quantile-based asset pricing model and a new estimation method. Our new asset pricing model allows for the risk premium to be quantile-dependent and our estimation method is applicable to models with unobserved factors. It avoids biased estimation results and always ensures a positive risk premium. The method is applied to the U.S., Japan, and U.K. stock markets. The empirical analysis demonstrates the clear benefits of our approach.
The Aging Of A Young Nation: Population Aging In Singapore, Rahul Malhotra, Andre M. Muller, Su Aw, Gerald Choon Huat Koh, Yin-Leng Theng, Stephen James Hoskins, Chek Hooi Wong, Chunyan Miao, Wee-Shiong Lim, Chetna Malhotra, Angelique Chan
The Aging Of A Young Nation: Population Aging In Singapore, Rahul Malhotra, Andre M. Muller, Su Aw, Gerald Choon Huat Koh, Yin-Leng Theng, Stephen James Hoskins, Chek Hooi Wong, Chunyan Miao, Wee-Shiong Lim, Chetna Malhotra, Angelique Chan
Research Collection School Of Economics
The juxtaposition of a young city-state showing relative maturity as a rapidly aging society suffuses the population aging narrative in Singapore and places the “little red dot” on the spotlight of international aging. We first describe population aging in Singapore, including the characteristic events that shaped this demographic transition. We then detail the health care and socioeconomic ramifications of the rapid and significant shift to an aging society, followed by an overview of the main aging research areas in Singapore, including selected population-based data sets and the main thrust of leading aging research centers/institutes. After presenting established aging policies and …
A Smoothed Q-Learning Algorithm For Estimating Optimal Dynamic Treatment Regime, Yanqin Fan, Ming He, Liangjun Su, Xiao-Hua Zhou
A Smoothed Q-Learning Algorithm For Estimating Optimal Dynamic Treatment Regime, Yanqin Fan, Ming He, Liangjun Su, Xiao-Hua Zhou
Research Collection School Of Economics
In this paper we propose a smoothed Q-learning algorithm for estimating optimal dynamic treatment regimes. In contrast to the Q-learning algorithm in which non-regular inference is involved, we show that under assumptions adopted in this paper, the proposed smoothed Q-learning estimator is asymptotically normally distributed even when the Q-learning estimator is not and its asymptotic variance can be consistently estimated. As a result, inference based on the smoothed Q-learning estimator is standard. We derive the optimal smoothing parameter and propose a data-driven method for estimating it. The finite sample properties of the smoothed Q-learning estimator are studied and compared with …