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Singapore Management University

2016

Research Collection School Of Economics

Articles 61 - 78 of 78

Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences

Contributions To The Committee On The Future Economy, Singapore Management University Mar 2016

Contributions To The Committee On The Future Economy, Singapore Management University

Research Collection School Of Economics

In response to the call to contribute to the dialogue initiated by the Committee on The Future Economy (CFE), SMU has held a series of engagement sessions with faculty and staff to brainstorm and propose recommendations to add to the government’s deliberations on strategies for the next stage of Singapore’s economic growth. Through the leadership of SMU Provost, Professor Lily Kong, faculty and senior staff produced various recommendations on five key areas namely Corporate Capabilities and Innovation, Future Growth Industries & Markets, Future of Connectivity, Future City and Future Jobs and Skills.

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Implementation With Transfers, Yi-Chun Chen, Takashi Kunimoto, Yifei Sun Mar 2016

Implementation With Transfers, Yi-Chun Chen, Takashi Kunimoto, Yifei Sun

Research Collection School Of Economics

We say that a social choice rule is implementable with (small) transfers if one candesign a mechanism whose set of equilibrium outcomes coincides with that speciÖed bythe rule but the mechanism allows for (small) ex post transfers among the players. Weshow in private-value environments that any incentive compatible rule is implementablewith small transfers. We obtain this permissive implementation result by proposinga natural extension of Abreu and Matsushima (1994) to incomplete information environments.Furthermore, in order to showcase the applicability of our results, we relatethem to the recent developments in implementation theory. Next we revisit the conjectureby Abreu and Matsushima (1994), who …

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A General Framework For Price Regulation Of Airports, Sock Yong Phang Mar 2016

A General Framework For Price Regulation Of Airports, Sock Yong Phang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Price cap regulation (PCR) was first implemented for privatized utilities in the UK in the 1980s. It has since been adopted by numerous countries as a regulatory regime in several sectors. This paper focuses on the development of different forms of price regulation of airports of which PCR is one variant. In countries where airport privatization is still in the early stages, the spectrum of airports and varied nature of regulatory regimes can be confusing and the lack of a general framework can itself become an obstacle to privatization. This paper proposes a general framework comprising decisions to be made …

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Estimation Of Large Dimensional Factor Models With An Unknown Number Of Breaks, Shujie Ma, Liangjun Su Mar 2016

Estimation Of Large Dimensional Factor Models With An Unknown Number Of Breaks, Shujie Ma, Liangjun Su

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper we study the estimation of a large dimensional factor model when the factor loadings exhibit an unknown number of changes over time. We propose a novel three-step procedure to detect the breaks if any and then identify their locations. In the first step, we divide the whole time span into subintervals and fit a conventional factor model on each interval. In the second step, we apply the adaptive fused group Lasso to identify intervals containing a break. In the third step, we devise a grid search method to estimate the location of the break on each identified …

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Quantity Discounts And Capital Misallocation In Vertical Relationships, Ken Onishi Feb 2016

Quantity Discounts And Capital Misallocation In Vertical Relationships, Ken Onishi

Research Collection School Of Economics

I study transactions between aircraft manufacturers and airlines as well as airlines' utilization of their fleet. Aircraft production is characterized by economies of scale via learning-by-doing, which creates a trade-off between current profit and future competitive advantage in the aircraft market. The latter consideration makes large buyers more attractive than small buyers and induces quantity discounts. The resulting nonlinear pricing strategy may distort both production and allocation in favor of large buyers. In the data, there is a negative correlation between the size of aircraft orders and the per-unit price, and a positive correlation between the price paid and the …

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Granger Causality And Structural Causality In Cross-Section And Panel Data, Xun Lu, Liangjun Su, Halbert White Feb 2016

Granger Causality And Structural Causality In Cross-Section And Panel Data, Xun Lu, Liangjun Su, Halbert White

Research Collection School Of Economics

Granger non-causality in distribution is fundamentally a probabilistic conditional independence notion that can be applied not only to time series data but also to cross-section and panel data. In this paper, we provide a natural definition of structural causality in cross-section and panel data and forge a direct link between Granger (G-) causality and structural causality under a key conditional exogeneity assumption. To put it simply, when structural effects are well defined and identifiable, G- non-causality follows from structural non-causality, and with suitable conditions (e.g., separability or monotonicity), structural causality also implies G-causality. This justifies using tests of G- non-causality …

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Common Threshold In Quantile Regressions With An Application To Pricing For Reputation, Liangjun Su, Pai Xu, Heng Ju Feb 2016

Common Threshold In Quantile Regressions With An Application To Pricing For Reputation, Liangjun Su, Pai Xu, Heng Ju

Research Collection School Of Economics

The paper develops a systematic estimation and inference procedure for quantile regression models where there may exist a common threshold effect across different quantile indices. We first propose a sup-Wald test for the existence of a threshold effect, and then study the asymptotic properties of the estimators in a threshold quantile regression model under the shrinking-threshold-effect framework. We consider several tests for the presence of a common threshold value across different quantile indices and obtain their limiting distributions. We apply our methodology to study the pricing strategy for reputation via the use of a dataset from Taobao.com. In our economic …

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Constrained Inefficiency And Optimal Taxation With Uninsurable Risks, Piero Gottardi, Atsushi Kajii, Tomoyuki Nakajima Feb 2016

Constrained Inefficiency And Optimal Taxation With Uninsurable Risks, Piero Gottardi, Atsushi Kajii, Tomoyuki Nakajima

Research Collection School Of Economics

When individuals' labor and capital income are subject to uninsurable idiosyncratic risks, should capital and labor be taxed, and if so how? In a two-period general equilibrium model with production, we derive a decomposition formula of the welfare effects of these taxes into insurance and distribution effects. This allows us to determine how the sign of the optimal taxes on capital and labor depend on the nature of the shocks and the degree of heterogeneity among consumers' income, as well as on the way in which the tax revenue is used to provide lump-sum transfers to consumers. When shocks affect …

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Testing For Monotonicity In Unobservables Under Unconfoundedness, Stefan Hoderlein, Liangjun Su, Halbert White, Thomas Tao Yang Feb 2016

Testing For Monotonicity In Unobservables Under Unconfoundedness, Stefan Hoderlein, Liangjun Su, Halbert White, Thomas Tao Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Monotonicity in a scalar unobservable is a common assumption when modeling heterogeneity in structural models. Among other things, it allows one to recover the underlying structural function from certain conditional quantiles of observables. Nevertheless, monotonicity is a strong assumption and in some economic applications unlikely to hold, e.g., random coefficient models. Its failure can have substantive adverse consequences, in particular inconsistency of any estimator that is based on it. Having a test for this hypothesis is hence desirable. This paper provides such a test for cross-section data. We show how to exploit an exclusion restriction together with a conditional independence …

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Are House Prices Driven By Capital Flows? Evidence From Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow, Taojun Xie Feb 2016

Are House Prices Driven By Capital Flows? Evidence From Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow, Taojun Xie

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper investigates whether real house price appreciations can be attributed to the surge in real capital inflows into Singapore. We proxy capital flows by using the amount of foreign direct investments (FDI) to real estate capturing the foreign purchases of property in Singapore which we deflate by the private residential property price index. Notwithstanding the absence of a cointegrating relationship, our results support the hypothesis that lagged short term fluctuations in capital inflows are positively associated with the growth rates of house prices over the last decade. We also provide evidence that macroprudential measures implemented by Singapore reduced the …

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Is Urban Food Demand In The Philippines Different From China?, Tomoki Fujii Feb 2016

Is Urban Food Demand In The Philippines Different From China?, Tomoki Fujii

Research Collection School Of Economics

Food is an essential good, and thus understanding its demand is important for the formulation of sound agricultural policies and developing sustainable agricultural business. A timely analysis of food demand is important because it can change over time not only because prices and incomes change but also because people’s taste itself also change. However, even in countries where food accounts for a sizable share of expenditure or where the agricultural sector accounts for a large share of output, careful analysis of food demand is often not readily available. In this study, we analyze the food demand in urban Philippines and …

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Meritocracy Voting: Measuring The Unmeasurable, Peter C. B. Phillips Jan 2016

Meritocracy Voting: Measuring The Unmeasurable, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

Learned societies commonly carry out selection processes to add new fellows to an existing fellowship. Criteria vary across societies but are typically based on subjective judgments concerning the merit of individuals who are nominated for fellowships. These subjective assessments may be made by existing fellows as they vote in elections to determine the new fellows or they may be decided by a selection committee of fellows and officers of the society who determine merit after reviewing nominations and written assessments. Human judgment inevitably plays a central role in these determinations and, notwithstanding its limitations, is usually regarded as being a …

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Robust Information Cascade With Endogenous Ordering, Yi Zhang Jan 2016

Robust Information Cascade With Endogenous Ordering, Yi Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We analyze a sequential decision model with endogenous ordering in which decision makers are allowed to choose the time of acting (exercising a risky investment option) or waiting. We show the existence of a unique symmetric equilibrium and characterize information cascade under endogenous ordering. Further, if there are two or more risky investment options, individuals tend to wait longer with competition. Hence, we could end up with a dilemma: more options might be worse.

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Shrinkage Estimation Of Dynamic Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects, Xun Lu, Liangjun Su Jan 2016

Shrinkage Estimation Of Dynamic Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects, Xun Lu, Liangjun Su

Research Collection School Of Economics

We consider the problem of determining the number of factors and selecting the proper regressors in linear dynamic panel data models with interactive fixed effects. Based on the preliminary estimates of the slope parameters and factors a la Bai (2009) and Moon and Weidner (2015), we propose a method for simultaneous selection of regressors and factors and estimation through the method of adaptive group Lasso (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator). We show that with probability approaching one, our method can correctly select all relevant regressors and factors and shrink the coefficients of irrelevant regressors and redundant factors to zero. …

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New Distribution Theory For The Estimation Of Structural Break Point In Mean, Liang Jiang, Xiaohu Wang, Jun Yu Jan 2016

New Distribution Theory For The Estimation Of Structural Break Point In Mean, Liang Jiang, Xiaohu Wang, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

Based on the Girsanov theorem, this paper first obtains the exact distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator of structural break point in a continuous time model. The exact distribution is asymmetric and tri-modal, indicating that the estimator is seriously biased. These two properties are also found in the finite sample distribution of the least squares estimator of structural break point in the discrete time model. The paper then builds a continuous time approximation to the discrete time model and develops an in-fill asymptotic theory for the least squares estimator. The obtained in-fill asymptotic distribution is asymmetric and tri-modal and delivers …

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Hot Property In New Zealand: Empirical Evidence Of Housing Bubbles In The Metropolitan Centres, Ryan Greenaway-Mcgrevy, Peter C. B. Phillips Jan 2016

Hot Property In New Zealand: Empirical Evidence Of Housing Bubbles In The Metropolitan Centres, Ryan Greenaway-Mcgrevy, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

Using recently developed statistical methods for testing and dating exuberant behaviour in asset prices we document evidence of episodic bubbles in the New Zealand property market over the past two decades. The results show clear evidence of a broad-based New Zealand housing bubble that began in 2003 and collapsed over mid-2007 to early 2008 with the onset of the worldwide recession and the financial crisis. New methods of analysing market contagion are also developed and are used to examine spillovers from the Auckland property market to the other metropolitan centres. Evidence from the latest data reveals that the greater Auckland …

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Semiparametric Estimation Of Partially Linear Dynamic Panel Data Models With Fixed Effects, Liangjun Su, Yonghui Zhang Jan 2016

Semiparametric Estimation Of Partially Linear Dynamic Panel Data Models With Fixed Effects, Liangjun Su, Yonghui Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper, we study a partially linear dynamic panel data model with fixed effects, where either exogenous or endogenous variables or both enter the linear part, and the lagged-dependent variable together with some other exogenous variables enter the nonparametric part. Two types of estimation methods are proposed for the first-differenced model. One is composed of a semiparametric GMM estimator for the finite-dimensional parameter θ and a local polynomial estimator for the infinite-dimensional parameter m based on the empirical solutions to Fredholm integral equations of the second kind, and the other is a sieve IV estimate of the parametric and …

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Inference In Near-Singular Regression, Peter C. B. Phillips Jan 2016

Inference In Near-Singular Regression, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper considers stationary regression models with near-collinear regressors. Limit theory is developed for regression estimates and test statistics in cases where the signal matrix is nearly singular in finite samples and is asymptotically degenerate. Examples include models that involve evaporating trends in the regressors that arise in conditions such as growth convergence. Structural equation models are also considered and limit theory is derived for the corresponding instrumental variable (IV) estimator, Wald test statistic, and overidentification test when the regressors are endogenous. It is shown that near-singular designs of the type considered here are not completely fatal to least squares …

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