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Articles 1 - 30 of 109
Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Shrinkage Estimation Of Regression Models With Multiple Structural Changes, Junhai Qian, Liangjun Su
Shrinkage Estimation Of Regression Models With Multiple Structural Changes, Junhai Qian, Liangjun Su
Research Collection School Of Economics
In this paper, we consider the problem of determining the number of structural changes in multiple linear regression models via group fused Lasso. We show that with probability tending to one, our method can correctly determine the unknown number of breaks, and the estimated break dates are sufficiently close to the true break dates. We obtain estimates of the regression coefficients via post Lasso and establish the asymptotic distributions of the estimates of both break ratios and regression coefficients. We also propose and validate a data-driven method to determine the tuning parameter. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that the proposed method …
Weak Convergence To Stochastic Integrals For Econometric Applications, Hanying Liang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Hanchao Wang, Qiying Wang
Weak Convergence To Stochastic Integrals For Econometric Applications, Hanying Liang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Hanchao Wang, Qiying Wang
Research Collection School Of Economics
Limit theory involving stochastic integrals is now widespread in time series econometrics and relies on a few key results on functional weak convergence. In establishing such convergence, the literature commonly uses martingale and semimartingale structures. While these structures have wide relevance, many applications involve a cointegration framework where endogeneity and nonlinearity play major roles and complicate the limit theory. This paper explores weak convergence limit theory to stochastic integral functionals in such settings. We use a novel decomposition of sample covariances of functions of I (1) and I (0) time series that simplifies the asymptotics and our limit results for …
Endogenous Quality Choice, Signaling, And Welfare, Gea M. Lee, Seung Han Yoo
Endogenous Quality Choice, Signaling, And Welfare, Gea M. Lee, Seung Han Yoo
Research Collection School Of Economics
We consider a model in which each worker endogenously selects his own type through aprivate investment decision and selects a public signal in the labor market. Signaling thencontributes to social welfare through its influence on the quality choice. We offer a rationalefor the argument that there are too many high-type workers from a welfare perspective,identifying circumstances under which separating equilibrium generates too many high-typeworkers while having to use the incentive-compatible signal and treat high-type workersdifferently in the market. The inefficiency can then be reduced in pooling equilibrium.
All In The Family: Economies Of Scale In Retail And Institutional Investment Management, Darwin Choi, Xi Li, Tong Yao, Zhe Zhang
All In The Family: Economies Of Scale In Retail And Institutional Investment Management, Darwin Choi, Xi Li, Tong Yao, Zhe Zhang
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This paper examines the (dis)economies of scale related to the joint management of retail mutual funds and institutional funds (i.e., investment portfolios catering to institutional clients). Similar to well-known observations for mutual funds, the performance of institutional funds is negatively related to fund size but positively related to fund family size, suggesting diseconomies of scale at individual fund level and economies of scale at fund family level. More importantly, there is spillover of the family size effect -- the performance of mutual funds (institutional funds) is positively related to the total institutional assets (mutual fund assets) managed by the same …
Sharing Sequential Values In A Network, Ruben Juarez, Chiu Yu Ko, Jingyi Xue
Sharing Sequential Values In A Network, Ruben Juarez, Chiu Yu Ko, Jingyi Xue
Research Collection School Of Economics
Consider a sequential process where agents have individual values at every possible step. A planner is in charge of selecting steps and distributing the accumulated aggregate values among agents. We model this process by a directed network where each edge is associated with a vector of individual values. This model applies to several new and existing problems, e.g., developing a connected public facility and distributing total values received by surrounding districts; selecting a long-term production plan and sharing final profits among partners of a firm; choosing a machine schedule to serve different tasks and distributing total outputs among task owners. …
The Effect Of Monetary Policy On Bank Wholesale Funding, Hyunsoo Choi, Hyun Soo Choi
The Effect Of Monetary Policy On Bank Wholesale Funding, Hyunsoo Choi, Hyun Soo Choi
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We study how monetary policy affects the funding composition of the banking sector. When monetary tightening reduces the retail deposit supply due to, for example, a decrease in bank reserves or in money demand, banks try to substitute the deposit outflows with more wholesale funding in order to mitigate the policy impact on their lending. Banks have varying degrees of accessibility to wholesale funding sources because of financial frictions, and those banks that are large or that have a greater reliance on wholesale funding increase their wholesale funding more. As a result, monetary tightening increases both the reliance on and …
Short Selling Meets Hedge Fund 13f: An Anatomy Of Informed Demand, Yawen Jiao, Massimo Massa, Hong Zhang
Short Selling Meets Hedge Fund 13f: An Anatomy Of Informed Demand, Yawen Jiao, Massimo Massa, Hong Zhang
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
The existing literature treats the short side (i.e., short selling) and the long side of hedge fund trading (i.e., fund holdings) independently. The two sides, however, complement each other: opposite changes in the two are likely to be driven by information, whereas simultaneous increases (decreases) of the two may be motivated by hedging (unwinding) considerations. We use this intuition to identify informed demand and document that it exhibits highly significant predictive power over returns (approximately 10% per year). We also find that informed demand forecasts future firm fundamentals, suggesting that hedge funds play an important role in information discovery. (C) …
The Effect Of Monetary Policy On Bank Wholesale Funding, Hyunsoo Choi, Hyun Soo Choi
The Effect Of Monetary Policy On Bank Wholesale Funding, Hyunsoo Choi, Hyun Soo Choi
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We study how monetary policy affects the funding composition of the banking sector. When monetary tightening reduces the retail deposit supply due to, for example, a decrease in bank reserves or in money demand, banks try to substitute the deposit outflows with more wholesale funding in order to mitigate the policy impact on their lending. Banks have varying degrees of accessibility to wholesale funding sources because of financial frictions, and those banks that are large or that have a greater reliance on wholesale funding increase their wholesale funding more. As a result, monetary tightening increases both the reliance on and …
Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects And Multiple Structural Breaks, Degui Li, Junhui Qian, Liangjun Su
Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects And Multiple Structural Breaks, Degui Li, Junhui Qian, Liangjun Su
Research Collection School Of Economics
In this article, we consider estimation of common structural breaks in panel data models with unobservable interactive fixed effects. We introduce a penalized principal component (PPC) estimation procedure with an adaptive group fused LASSO to detect the multiple structural breaks in the models. Under some mild conditions, we show that with probability approaching one the proposed method can correctly determine the unknown number of breaks and consistently estimate the common break dates. Furthermore, we estimate the regression coefficients through the post-LASSO method and establish the asymptotic distribution theory for the resulting estimators. The developed methodology and theory are applicable to …
Evaluating The Conditions For China’S 4th Industrial Revolution Plan: A Neo-Schumpeterian Analysis, Hing Lee Henry Chan
Evaluating The Conditions For China’S 4th Industrial Revolution Plan: A Neo-Schumpeterian Analysis, Hing Lee Henry Chan
Dissertations and Theses Collection
After 33 years (1979-2011) of close to double digit average annual economic growth, the Chinese economy decelerated to a mid-high single digit growth of approximately 7% per year since 2012. The country is currently facing the typical economic transition challenge of moving from being a high-middle income to high income economy. In response to this economic transition, the government launched an industrial innovation program that corresponds to the 4th Industrial Revolution in 2015-Made in China 2025, hoping to stabilize and rejuvenate China’s growth momentum through innovation. This thesis examines the pre-conditions for the successful implementation of this plan using the …
Vietnam's Economic Transformation: Embracing Change, Vu Khoan, Philip Charles Zerrillo
Vietnam's Economic Transformation: Embracing Change, Vu Khoan, Philip Charles Zerrillo
Asian Management Insights
The former Deputy Prime Minister of Vietnam from 2002 to 2006, Mr Vu Khoan, talks about the transformation of the country from economic isolationism to its current economic strength, in this interview with Philip Zerrillo.
The New Dragon Dance, Sarita Mathur
The New Dragon Dance, Sarita Mathur
Asian Management Insights
Is China moving to a new normal?
Semiparametric Single Index Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects: Theory And Practice, Guohua Feng, Bin Peng, Liangjun Su, Thomas Tao Yang
Semiparametric Single Index Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects: Theory And Practice, Guohua Feng, Bin Peng, Liangjun Su, Thomas Tao Yang
Research Collection School Of Economics
In this paper, we propose a single-index panel data model with unobserved multiple interactive fixed effects. This model has the advantages of being flexible and of being able to allow for common shocks and their heterogeneous impacts on cross sections, thus making it suitable for the investigation of many economic issues. We derive asymptotic theories for both the case where the link function is integrable and the case where the link function is non-integrable. Our Monte Carlo simulations show that our methodology works well for large N and T cases. In our empirical application, we illustrate our model by analyzing …
Invitation Strategy For Cutting Edge Industries Through Mncs And Global Talents: The Case Of Singapore, Kim Song Tan
Invitation Strategy For Cutting Edge Industries Through Mncs And Global Talents: The Case Of Singapore, Kim Song Tan
Research Collection School Of Economics
Singapore presents an interesting case of how a country achieves dynamic economic development and innovation through the "invitation" strategy of a business hub. Despite being a small city-state with limited domestic market size and no meaningful hinterland or natural resources to speak of, Singapore has managed to transform its economy dramatically over the past 50 years by leveraging the strengths of other economies. Specifically, it has been able to attract (or "invite") various types of productive resources, including foreign capital, foreign technology and foreign workers (both skilled and unskilled) to make up for what it lacks. This has helped Singapore …
Bias Correction And Refined Inferences For Fixed Effects Spatial Panel Data Models, Zhenlin Yang, Jihai Yu, Shew Fan Liu
Bias Correction And Refined Inferences For Fixed Effects Spatial Panel Data Models, Zhenlin Yang, Jihai Yu, Shew Fan Liu
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper first presents simple methods for conducting up to third-order bias and variance corrections for the quasi maximum likelihood (QML) estimators of the spatial parameter(s) in the fixed effects spatial panel data (FE-SPD) models. Then, it shows how the bias and variance corrections lead to refined t-ratios for spatial effects and for covariate effects. The implementation of these corrections depends on the proposed bootstrap methods of which validity is established. Monte Carlo results reveal that (i) the QML estimators of the spatial parameters can be quite biased, (ii) a second-order bias correction effectively removes the bias, and (iii) the …
Smarter Banking: Blockchain Technology In The Indian Banking System, Suparna Dhar, Indranil Bose
Smarter Banking: Blockchain Technology In The Indian Banking System, Suparna Dhar, Indranil Bose
Asian Management Insights
Indian banks are currently experiencing poor performance when it comes to debt risk. Burdened with high non-performing loans (NPL), they are putting at risk the funds of investors as well as India’s industrial and economic growth. In addition, the loan management process itself is riddled with inefficiencies. To overcome them, we propose to use blockchain technology.
Days To Cover And Stock Returns, Harrison G. Hong, Frank Weikai Li, Sophie X. Ni, Jose A. Scheinkman, Philip Yan
Days To Cover And Stock Returns, Harrison G. Hong, Frank Weikai Li, Sophie X. Ni, Jose A. Scheinkman, Philip Yan
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
A crowded trade emerges when speculators' positions are large relative to the asset's liquidity, making exit difficult. We study this problem of recent regulatory concern by focusing on short-selling. We show that days to cover (DTC), the ratio of short interest to trading volume, measures the costliness of exiting crowded trades. Crowding is an important concern as short-sellers avoid illiquid stocks, which we establish using an instrumental-variables strategy involving staggered stock market decimalization reforms. Arbitrageurs require a premium to enter into such trades as a strategy shorting high DTC stocks and buying low DTC stocks generates a 1.2% monthly return. …
Asymptotically Refined Score And Gof Tests For Inverse Gaussian Models, Anthony F. Desmond, Zhenlin Yang
Asymptotically Refined Score And Gof Tests For Inverse Gaussian Models, Anthony F. Desmond, Zhenlin Yang
Research Collection School Of Economics
The score test and the GOF test for the inverse Gaussian distribution, in particular the latter, are known to have large size distortion and hence unreliable power when referring to the asymptotic critical values. We show in this paper that with the appropriately bootstrapped critical values, these tests become second-order accurate, with size distortion being essentially eliminated and power more reliable. Two major generalizations of the score test are made: one is to allow the data to be right-censored, and the other is to allow the existence of covariate effects. A data mapping method is introduced for the bootstrap to …
Shrinkage Estimation Of Covariance Matrix For Portfolio Choice With High Frequency Data, Cheng Liu, Ningning Xia, Jun Yu
Shrinkage Estimation Of Covariance Matrix For Portfolio Choice With High Frequency Data, Cheng Liu, Ningning Xia, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper examines the usefulness of high frequency data in estimating the covariancematrix for portfolio choice when the portfolio size is large. A computationally convenientnonlinear shrinkage estimator for the integrated covariance (ICV) matrix of financial as-sets is developed in two steps. The eigenvectors of the ICV are first constructed from adesigned time variation adjusted realized covariance matrix of noise-free log-returns of rel-atively low frequency data. Then the regularized eigenvalues of the ICV are estimated byquasi-maximum likelihood based on high frequency data. The estimator is always positivedefinite and its inverse is the estimator of the inverse of ICV. It minimizes the …
Identifying Latent Structures In Panel Data, Liangjun Su, Zhentao Shi, Peter C. B. Phillips
Identifying Latent Structures In Panel Data, Liangjun Su, Zhentao Shi, Peter C. B. Phillips
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper provides a novel mechanism for identifying and estimating latent group structures in panel data using penalized techniques. We consider both linear and nonlinear models where the regression coefficients are heterogeneous across groups but homogeneous within a group and the group membership is unknown. Two approaches are consideredpenalized profile likelihood (PPL) estimation for the general nonlinear models without endogenous regressors, and penalized GMM (PGMM) estimation for linear models with endogeneity. In both cases, we develop a new variant of Lasso called classifier-Lasso (C-Lasso) that serves to shrink individual coefficients to the unknown group-specific coefficients. C-Lasso achieves simultaneous classification and …
Homogeneity Pursuit In Panel Data Models: Theory And Applications, Wuyi Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Liangjun Su
Homogeneity Pursuit In Panel Data Models: Theory And Applications, Wuyi Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Liangjun Su
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper studies estimation of a panel data model with latent structures where individuals can be classified into different groups where slope parameters are homogeneous within the same group but heterogeneous across groups. To identify the unknown group structure of vector parameters, we design an algorithm called Panel-CARDS which is a systematic extension of the CARDS procedure proposed by Ke, Fan, and Wu (2015) in a cross section framework. The extension addresses the problem of comparing vector coefficients in a panel model for homogeneity and introduces a new concept of controlled classification of multidimensional quantities called the segmentation net. We …
Asean's Digital Economy, Naveen Menon
Asean's Digital Economy, Naveen Menon
Asian Management Insights
Transforming industries, enriching lives and propelling progress.
Connecting India, Sam Pitroda
Connecting India, Sam Pitroda
Asian Management Insights
Great inventions will not be born in the absence of the will and intent to embrace change and solve wideranging societal problems.
A Practical Test For Strict Exogeneity In Linear Panel Data Models With Fixed Effects, Liangjun Su, Yonghui Zhang, Jie Wei
A Practical Test For Strict Exogeneity In Linear Panel Data Models With Fixed Effects, Liangjun Su, Yonghui Zhang, Jie Wei
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper provides a practical test for strict exogeneity in linear panel data models with fixed effects when the number of individuals N goes to infinity while the number of time periods T is fixed. The test is based on the supremum of a sequence of Wald test statistics. Under suitable conditions, we establish the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic and consistency of the test. A bootstrap procedure is proposed to improve the finite sample performance and the validity of the procedure is justified. We investigate the finite sample performance of the test via a small set of Monte …
Housing Policies In Singapore, Phang Sock Yong, Matthias Helble
Housing Policies In Singapore, Phang Sock Yong, Matthias Helble
Research Collection School of Economics
Singapore has developed a unique housing system, with three-quarters of its housing stock built by the Housing & Development Board (HDB) and homeownership financed through Central Provident Fund (CPF) savings. As a result, the country’s homeownership rate of 90% is one of the highest among market economies. At different stages of its economic development, the Government of Singapore was faced with a different set of housing problems. An integrated land–housing supply and financing framework was established in the 1960s to solve the severe housing shortage. By the 1990s, the challenge was that of renewing aging estates and creating a market …
New Skills At Work: Managing Skills Challenges In Asean-5, Kim Song Tan, James T. H. Tang
New Skills At Work: Managing Skills Challenges In Asean-5, Kim Song Tan, James T. H. Tang
Research Collection School Of Economics
The dynamic economies of Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines (ASEAN-5) boasts a growth rate of close to 5% a year despite the sluggish global economy. However, whether ASEAN-5 can grow to be significant players in the global economy will depend critically on their abilities to train workers with relevant job skills required by growth-driving industries. This challenge requires governments and employers to work together and develop coherent policies and targeted incentive structures for workers to acquire general and job-specific skills. The report Managing Skills Challenges in ASEAN-5 provides insights and recommendations on how the ASEAN-5 countries can respond …
Robust Forecast Comparison, Sainan Jin, Valentina Corradi, Norman R. Swanson
Robust Forecast Comparison, Sainan Jin, Valentina Corradi, Norman R. Swanson
Research Collection School Of Economics
Forecast accuracy is typically measured in terms of a given loss function. However, as a consequence of the use of misspecified models in multiple model comparisons, relative forecast rankings are loss function dependent. In order to address this issue, a novel criterion for forecast evaluation that utilizes the entire distribution of forecast errors is introduced. In particular, we introduce the concepts of general-loss (GL) forecast superiority and convex-loss (CL) forecast superiority; and we develop tests for GL (CL) superiority that are based on an out-of-sample generalization of the tests introduced by Linton, Maasoumi, and Whang (2005, Review of Economic Studies …
Need Based Aid From Selective Universities And The Achievement Gap Between Rich And Poor, Sunha Myong
Need Based Aid From Selective Universities And The Achievement Gap Between Rich And Poor, Sunha Myong
Research Collection School Of Economics
I study the role of need-based aid from selective universities in closing the achievement gap between rich and poor high school students. I focus on the incentive aspect of need-based aid that can change high school students’ effort choices. The impact of increasing need-based aid depends on the extent of borrowing constraints and how competition affects the relative performance of low- and high-income students. I develop a structural model of students’ learning, application, and admission processes, and estimate it with the Education Longitudinal Study of 2002, a nationally representative sample. I use a geographic variation in costs of attending selective …
Tackling Technology Disruption In The Financial Sector: Are The Current Singapore Government Incentives And Labour Force Preparations Adequate?, Swee Liang Tan
Tackling Technology Disruption In The Financial Sector: Are The Current Singapore Government Incentives And Labour Force Preparations Adequate?, Swee Liang Tan
Research Collection School Of Economics
No abstract provided.
Estimating The Volatility Occupation Time Via Regularized Laplace Inversion, Jia Li, Viktor Todorov, Tauchen
Estimating The Volatility Occupation Time Via Regularized Laplace Inversion, Jia Li, Viktor Todorov, Tauchen
Research Collection School Of Economics
We propose a consistent functional estimator for the occupation time of the spot variance of an asset price observed at discrete times on a finite interval with the mesh of the observation grid shrinking to zero. The asset price is modeled nonparametrically as a continuous-time Itô semimartingale with nonvanishing diffusion coefficient. The estimation procedure contains two steps. In the first step we estimate the Laplace transform of the volatility occupation time and, in the second step, we conduct a regularized Laplace inversion. Monte Carlo evidence suggests that the proposed estimator has good small-sample performance and in particular it is far …