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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences

Challenges To Social Mobility In Singapore, Kong Weng Ho, Marcus Kheng Tat Tan Jul 2020

Challenges To Social Mobility In Singapore, Kong Weng Ho, Marcus Kheng Tat Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

Singapore had achieved impressive economic growth together with a high level of upward mobility since her independence in 1965. However, the growth process might have become more uneven, in addition to diminishing growth for a matured economy like Singapore, which is also a highly open city state subject to competitive forces from other economies. Singapore has fared well recently,
evident from the 2020 social mobility findings reported by the World Economic Forum and the decline in Gini coefficients for the past decade. We discuss the education system in Singapore and the recently formed National Jobs Council, both important institutions for ...


When Crises Happen: Coronavirus And What We Expect For Global Growth, Waqas Adenwala Jun 2020

When Crises Happen: Coronavirus And What We Expect For Global Growth, Waqas Adenwala

Asian Management Insights

An unflinching take on the negative effects on growth from both demand and supply channels.


Consumption, Investment, Integration And Digitalisation Lead Growth In Asia, Piyush Gupta, Havovi Heerjee Joshi Jun 2020

Consumption, Investment, Integration And Digitalisation Lead Growth In Asia, Piyush Gupta, Havovi Heerjee Joshi

Asian Management Insights

An interview with Piyush Gupta, Chief Executive Officer and Director of DBS Group, about the Asia growth story and the future of banking.


Measuring The Tourism Impact Of Covid-19, Singapore Management University Jun 2020

Measuring The Tourism Impact Of Covid-19, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

The initial lockdown in Wuhan in China’s Hubei province, the rise of infection cases and subsequent lockdowns in individual markets all contributed to a reduction in travel and booking activities, according to a new study conducted by The Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK). However, different regions showed different sensitivity to COVID-19.


4 Lessons In Digital Transformation From The Lucrative K-Pop Industry, Singapore Management University Jun 2020

4 Lessons In Digital Transformation From The Lucrative K-Pop Industry, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

K-pop is set to become one of the most lucrative industries in the world thanks to digital transformation, and this provides important insights and lessons for businesses more broadly, says UNSW Business School's Felix Tan


Deviance Information Criterion For Latent Variable Models And Misspecified Models, Yong Li, Jun Yu, Tao Zeng Jun 2020

Deviance Information Criterion For Latent Variable Models And Misspecified Models, Yong Li, Jun Yu, Tao Zeng

Research Collection School Of Economics

Deviance information criterion (DIC) has been widely used for Bayesian model comparison, especially after Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used to estimate candidate models. This paper first studies the problem of using DIC to compare latent variable models when DIC is calculated from the conditional likelihood. In particular, it is shown that the conditional likelihood approach undermines theoretical underpinnings of DIC. A new version of DIC, namely DICL, is proposed to compare latent variable models. The large sample properties of DICL are studied. A frequentist justification of DICL is provided. Like AIC, DICL provides an asymptotically unbiased estimator to ...


Estimating The Benefits And Costs Of Forming Business Partnerships, Jungho Lee Jun 2020

Estimating The Benefits And Costs Of Forming Business Partnerships, Jungho Lee

Research Collection School Of Economics

I estimate a matching model of business‐partnership formation to quantify the relative importance of productivity gains, financing gains, and the coordination failure of effort provision (moral hazard) among partners. Productivity gains account for 61% of the gain from the observed partnerships. For partners in the first quartile of the wealth distribution, however, financing accounts for 93% of the gain. The cost of moral hazard corresponds to 42% of the entire gain from partnerships. A loan policy specifically targeting partnerships is less effective in improving welfare than a conventional loan policy that provides loans to individual entrepreneurs.


Identifying Latent Grouped Patterns In Cointegrated Panels, Wenxin Huang, Sainan Jin, Liangjun Su Jun 2020

Identifying Latent Grouped Patterns In Cointegrated Panels, Wenxin Huang, Sainan Jin, Liangjun Su

Research Collection School Of Economics

We consider a panel cointegration model with latent group structures that allows for heterogeneous long-run relationships across groups. We extend Su, Shi, and Phillips (2016, Econometrica 84(6), 2215-2264) classifier-Lasso (C-Lasso) method to the nonstationary panels and allow for the presence of endogeneity in both the stationary and nonstationary regressors in the model. In addition, we allow the dimension of the stationary regressors to diverge with the sample size. We show that we can identify the individuals' group membership and estimate the group-specific long-run cointegrated relationships simultaneously. We demonstrate the desirable property of uniform classification consistency and the oracle properties ...


Identifying Latent Group Structures In Nonlinear Panels, Wuyi Wang, Liangjun Su May 2020

Identifying Latent Group Structures In Nonlinear Panels, Wuyi Wang, Liangjun Su

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose a procedure to identify latent group structures in nonlinear panel data models where some regression coefficients are heterogeneous across groups but homogeneous within a group and the group number and membership are unknown. To identify the group structures, we consider the order statistics for the preliminary unconstrained consistent estimators of the regression coefficients and translate the problem of classification into the problem of break detection. Then we extend the sequential binary segmentation algorithm of Bai (1997) for break detection from the time series setup to the panel data framework. We demonstrate that our method is able to identify ...


Detecting Latent Communities In Network Formation Models, Shujie Ma, Liangjun Su, Yichong Zhang May 2020

Detecting Latent Communities In Network Formation Models, Shujie Ma, Liangjun Su, Yichong Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper proposes a logistic undirected network formation model which allows for assortative matching on observed individual characteristics and the presence of edge-wise fixed effects. We model the coefficients of observed characteristics to have a latent community structure and the edge-wise fixed effects to be of low rank. We propose a multi-step estimation procedure involving nuclear norm regularization, sample splitting, iterative logistic regression and spectral clustering to detect the latent communities. We show that the latent communities can be exactly recovered when the expected degree of the network is of order log n or higher, where n is the number ...


Efficient Bilateral Trade With Interdependent Values: The Use Of Two-Stage Mechanisms, Takashi Kunimoto, Cuiling Zhang May 2020

Efficient Bilateral Trade With Interdependent Values: The Use Of Two-Stage Mechanisms, Takashi Kunimoto, Cuiling Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

As efficient, voluntary bilateral trades are generally not incentive compatible in an interdependent-value environment (Fieseler, Kittsteiner, Moldovanu (2003) and Gresik (1991)), we seek for more positive results by employing two-stage mechanisms (Mezzetti (2004)). We say that a two-stage mechanism satisfies incentive compatibility if the truth-telling in both stages constitutes an equilibrium strategy.First, we show by means of a stylized example that the generalized two-stage Groves mechanism never guarantees voluntary trade, while it satisfies efficiency and incentive compatibility. In a general environment, we next propose Assumption 1 under which there exists a two-stage incentive compatible mechanism implementing an efficient, voluntary ...


Bootstrap Inference For Quantile Treatment Effects In Randomized Experiments With Matched Pairs, Liang Jiang, Xiaobin Liu, Yichong Zhang May 2020

Bootstrap Inference For Quantile Treatment Effects In Randomized Experiments With Matched Pairs, Liang Jiang, Xiaobin Liu, Yichong Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper examines inference for quantile treatment effects (QTEs) in randomized experiments with matched-pairs designs (MPDs). We derive the limiting distribution of the QTE estimator under MPDs and highlight the difficulty of analytical inference due to parameter tuning. We show that a naive weighted bootstrap fails to approximate the limiting distribution of the QTE estimator under MPDs because it ignores the dependence structure within the matched pairs. We then propose two bootstrap methods that can consistently approximate that limiting distribution: the gradient bootstrap and the weighted bootstrap of the inverse propensity score weighted (IPW) estimator. The gradient bootstrap is free ...


Asymptotic Theory For Near Integrated Processes Driven By Tempered Linear Processes, Farzad Sabzikar, Qiying Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips May 2020

Asymptotic Theory For Near Integrated Processes Driven By Tempered Linear Processes, Farzad Sabzikar, Qiying Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

In an early article on near-unit root autoregression, Ahtola and Tiao (1984) studied the behavior of the score function in a stationary first order autoregression driven by independent Gaussian innovations as the autoregressive coefficient approached unity from below. The present paper develops asymptotic theory for near-integrated random processes and associated regressions including the score function in more general settings where the errors are tempered linear processes. Tempered processes are stationary time series that have a semi-long memory property in the sense that the autocovariogram of the process resembles that of a long memory model for moderate lags but eventually diminishes ...


Econometric Methods And Data Science Techniques: A Review Of Two Strands Of Literature And An Introduction To Hybrid Methods, Tian Xie, Jun Yu, Tao Zeng May 2020

Econometric Methods And Data Science Techniques: A Review Of Two Strands Of Literature And An Introduction To Hybrid Methods, Tian Xie, Jun Yu, Tao Zeng

Research Collection School Of Economics

The data market has been growing at an exceptional pace. Consequently, more sophisticated strategies to conduct economic forecasts have been introduced with machine learning techniques. Does machine learning pose a threat to conventional econometric methods in terms of forecasting? Moreover, does machine learning present great opportunities to cross-fertilize the field of econometric forecasting? In this report, we develop a pedagogical framework that identifies complementarity and bridges between the two strands of literature. Existing econometric methods and machine learning techniques for economic forecasting are reviewed and compared. The advantages and disadvantages of these two classes of methods are discussed. A class ...


Forecast Combinations In Machine Learning, Yue Qiu, Tian Xie, Jun Yu May 2020

Forecast Combinations In Machine Learning, Yue Qiu, Tian Xie, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper introduces novel methods to combine forecasts made by machine learning techniques. Machine learning methods have found many successful applications in predicting the response variable. However, they ignore model uncertainty when the relationship between the response variable and the predictors is nonlinear. To further improve the forecasting performance, we propose a general framework to combine multiple forecasts from machine learning techniques. Simulation studies show that the proposed machine-learning-based forecast combinations work well. In empirical applications to forecast key macroeconomic and financial variables, we find that the proposed methods can produce more accurate forecasts than individual machine learning techniques and ...


3 Lessons From The Gfc In How To Lead Through The Coronavirus Crisis, Singapore Management University Apr 2020

3 Lessons From The Gfc In How To Lead Through The Coronavirus Crisis, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

There are three lessons to be learned from the GFC that will help leaders in managing through the coronavirus crisis, according to a UNSW Business School expert


Measuring The Chinese Economic Impact Of Covid-19, Singapore Management University Apr 2020

Measuring The Chinese Economic Impact Of Covid-19, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

The COVID-19 outbreak currently sweeping around the globe with deadly results will create hardships for a good proportion of businesses in China while generating new opportunities for others, says Jing Wu, Assistant Professor at The Chinese University of Hong Kong’s Department of Decision Sciences and Managerial Economics.


Foreign Direct Investment And Industrial Agglomeration: Evidence From China, Wen-Tai Hsu, Yi Lu, Xuan Luo, Lianming Zhu Apr 2020

Foreign Direct Investment And Industrial Agglomeration: Evidence From China, Wen-Tai Hsu, Yi Lu, Xuan Luo, Lianming Zhu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on industrial ag-glomeration. Using the differential effects of FDI deregulation in 2002 in China on different industries, we find that FDI actually affects industrial agglomeration neg-atively. As FDI brings technological spillovers and various agglomeration benefits, other forces must be at work to drive our empirical finding. We propose a simple theory that FDI may discourage industrial agglomeration due to fiercer competition pressure. We find various evidence on this competition mechanism. We also examine an alternative theory based on spatial political competition, but find no evidence sup-porting it. On industrial growth ...


Robust Implementation In Rationalizable Strategies In General Mechanisms, Takashi Kunimoto, Rene Saran Apr 2020

Robust Implementation In Rationalizable Strategies In General Mechanisms, Takashi Kunimoto, Rene Saran

Research Collection School Of Economics

A social choice function (SCF) is robustly implementable in rationalizable strate-gies if every rationalizable strategy profile on every type space results in outcomes consistent with it. First, we establish an equivalence between robust implementation in rationalizable strategies and “weak rationalizable implementation”. Second, using the equivalence result, we identify weak robust monotonicity as a necessary and al-most sufficient condition for robust implementation in rationalizable strategies. This exhibits a contrast with robust implementation in interim equilibria, i.e., every equilib-rium on every type space achieves outcomes consistent with the SCF. Bergemann and Morris (2011) show that strict robust monotonicity is a necessary ...


Kernel-Based Inference In Time-Varying Coefficient Cointegrating Regression, Degui Li, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jiti Gao Apr 2020

Kernel-Based Inference In Time-Varying Coefficient Cointegrating Regression, Degui Li, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jiti Gao

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies nonlinear cointegrating models with time-varying coefficients and multiple nonstationary regressors using classic kernel smoothing methods to estimate the coefficient functions. Extending earlier work on nonstationary kernel regression to take account of practical features of the data, we allow the regressors to be cointegrated and to embody a mixture of stochastic and deterministic trends, complications which result in asymptotic degeneracy of the kernel-weighted signal matrix. To address these complications new local and global rotation techniques are introduced to transform the covariate space to accommodate multiple scenarios of induced degeneracy. Under regularity conditions we derive asymptotic results that differ ...


Time-Series Momentum: Is It There?, Dashan Huang, Jiangyuan Li, Liyao Wang, Guofu Zhou Mar 2020

Time-Series Momentum: Is It There?, Dashan Huang, Jiangyuan Li, Liyao Wang, Guofu Zhou

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Time-series momentum (TSM) refers to the predictability of the past 12-month return on the next one-month return, and is the focus of several recent influential studies. This paper shows, however, that asset-by-asset time-series regressions reveal little evidence of TSM, both in- and out-of-sample. While the t-statistic in a pooled regression appears large, it is not statistically reliable as it is less than the critical values of parametric and non-parametric bootstraps. From an investment perspective, the TSM strategy is profitable, but its performance is virtually the same as that of a similar strategy that is based on historical sample mean and ...


A Behavioral Signaling Explanation For Stock Splits: Evidence From China, Chenyu Cui, Frank Weikai Li, Jiaren Pang, Deren Xie Mar 2020

A Behavioral Signaling Explanation For Stock Splits: Evidence From China, Chenyu Cui, Frank Weikai Li, Jiaren Pang, Deren Xie

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We propose a behavioral signaling explanation for the positive announcement effects of stock splits. There are two key behavioral ingredients in our model. First, (retail) investors have misconceptions about stock splits that make them view stock splits as good news. Second, investors are loss-averse and will be particularly disappointed if a splitting firm’s ex-post performance falls short of expectation. In a separating equilibrium, only managers with favorable private information use stock splits to signal. Using a comprehensive sample of stock splits in China over the period of 1998 to 2017, we find supporting evidence: (1) stock splits elicit positive ...


Why Commonality Persists?, Raja Velu, Zhaoque Zhou, Chyng Wen Tee Mar 2020

Why Commonality Persists?, Raja Velu, Zhaoque Zhou, Chyng Wen Tee

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Studies on commonality in returns, order flows and liquidity find that the first principal component is closely aligned with the market factor. With the increasing presence of high-frequency trading, commonality in returns, order flows, and liquidity can potentially arise from the commonality in the interpretation of real-time signals. In this paper, we go beyond the first factor and show that the other dominant principal components consistently reflects investors' herding behavior, demonstrating the multi-dimensional aspect of commonality. Instead of relating the asset returns to order flows, we take both as endogenous, and provide empirical evidence showing that returns commonality is driven ...


Time Series Momentum: Is It There?, Dashan Huang, Jiangyuan Li, Liyao Wang, Guofu Zhou Mar 2020

Time Series Momentum: Is It There?, Dashan Huang, Jiangyuan Li, Liyao Wang, Guofu Zhou

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Time series momentum (TSM) refers to the predictability of the past 12-month return on the next one-month return and is the focus of several recent influential studies. This paper shows that asset-by-asset time series regressions reveal little evidence of TSM, both in- and out-of-sample. While the t-statistic in a pooled regression appears large, it is not statistically reliable as it is less than the critical values of parametric and nonparametric bootstraps. From an investment perspective, the TSM strategy is profitable, but its performance is virtually the same as that of a similar strategy that is based on historical sample mean ...


Urbanization Policy And Economic Development: A Quantitative Analysis Of China’S Differential Hukou Reforms, Wen-Tai Hsu, Lin Ma Mar 2020

Urbanization Policy And Economic Development: A Quantitative Analysis Of China’S Differential Hukou Reforms, Wen-Tai Hsu, Lin Ma

Research Collection School Of Economics

The household registration system (hukou system) in China has hampered rural-urban mi-gration by posing large migration friction. The system has been gradually relaxed in the past few decades, but the reforms have been differential in city size and by the coastal-inland di-vide. We find a striking contrast in the migration patterns between years 2005 and 2015; rural people tended to move more to the coastal urban region in 2005, but more to the inland urban region in 2015. We calibrate a spatial quantitative model to the world economy in both years with China being divided into the rural, coastal urban ...


Estimation Of Fixed Effects Spatial Dynamic Panel Data Models With Small T And Unknown Heteroskedasticity, Liyao Li, Zhenlin Yang Mar 2020

Estimation Of Fixed Effects Spatial Dynamic Panel Data Models With Small T And Unknown Heteroskedasticity, Liyao Li, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We consider the estimation and inference of fixed effects (FE) spatial dynamic panel data (SDPD) models under small T and unknown heteroskedasticity by extending the M-estimation strategy for homoskedastic FE-SDPD model of Yang (2018, Journal of Econometrics). Unbiased estimating equations are obtained by adjusting the conditional quasi-score functions given the initial observations, leading to M-estimators that are free from the initial conditions and robust against unknown cross-sectional heteroskedasticity. Consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed M-estimator are established. The standard errors are obtained by representing the estimating equations as sums of martingale differences. Monte Carlo results show that the proposed ...


Specification Tests For Temporal Heterogeneity In Spatial Panel Data Models With Fixed Effects, Yuhong Xu, Zhenlin Yang Mar 2020

Specification Tests For Temporal Heterogeneity In Spatial Panel Data Models With Fixed Effects, Yuhong Xu, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose adjusted quasi score (AQS) tests for testing the existence of temporal heterogeneity in slope and spatial parameters in spatial panel data (SPD) models, allowing for the presence of individual-specific and/or time-specific fixed effects (or in general intercept heterogeneity). The SPD model with spatial lag is treated in detail by first considering the model with individual fixed effects only, and then extending it to the model with both individual and time fixed effects. Two types of AQS tests (naïve and robust) are proposed, and their asymptotic properties are presented. These tests are then fully extended to SPD models ...


Sustainable Cooperation In International Trade: A Quantitative Analysis, Yuan Mei Mar 2020

Sustainable Cooperation In International Trade: A Quantitative Analysis, Yuan Mei

Research Collection School Of Economics

How does the presence of multilateral institutions affect the sustainability of trade-policy cooperation? Do free-trade agreements make multilateral cooperation less sustainable? Will countries be more likely to deviate from negotiated tariffs when more trade liberalization realizes in the future? These questions have been studied in theory literature using models that feature repeated games, but have yet to be quantitatively analyzed. In this paper, I propose a methodology to quantitatively characterize the equilibrium strategies on tariffs of various nations in a widely used repeated-game framework. I then apply this methodology to address these questions from a quantitative perspective. The numerical results ...


Hybrid Stochastic Local Unit Roots, Offer Lieberman, Peter C. B. Phillips Mar 2020

Hybrid Stochastic Local Unit Roots, Offer Lieberman, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

Two approaches have dominated formulations designed to capture small departures from unit root autoregressions. The first involves deterministic departures that include local-to-unity (LUR) and mildly (or moderately) integrated (MI) specifications where departures shrink to zero as the sample size n -> infinity. The second approach allows for stochastic departures from unity, leading to stochastic unit root (STUR) specifications. This paper introduces a hybrid local stochastic unit root (LSTUR) specification that has both LUR and STUR components and allows for endogeneity in the time varying coefficient that introduces structural elements to the autoregression. This hybrid model generates trajectories that, upon normalization, have ...


Commentary: Where Does The Talent Pools Of Smes Come From?, T. Mandy Tham Mar 2020

Commentary: Where Does The Talent Pools Of Smes Come From?, T. Mandy Tham

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In a commentary, SMU Assistant Professor of Finance Mandy Tham explored how ‘family members’ is defined could affect the size of talent pool for SMEs and family businesses, and suggested some criteria for the selection of family members to be nurtured for the SMEs and family businesses.