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Articles 1 - 30 of 77
Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Empirical Likelihood In Missing Data Problems, Jing Qin, Biao Zhang, Denis H. Y. Leung
Empirical Likelihood In Missing Data Problems, Jing Qin, Biao Zhang, Denis H. Y. Leung
Research Collection School Of Economics
Missing data is a ubiquitous problem in medical and social sciences. It is well known that inferences based only on the complete data may not only lose efficiency, but may also lead to biased results if the data is not missing completely at random (MCAR). The inverse-probability weighting method proposed by Horvitz and Thompson (1952) is a popular alternative when the data is not MCAR. The Horvitz–Thompson method, however, is sensitive to the inverse weights and may suffer from loss of efficiency. In this paper, we propose a unified empirical likelihood approach to missing data problems and explore the use …
Tunneling Through Intercorporate Loans: The China Experience, Guohua Jiang, Charles M. C. Lee, Heng Yue
Tunneling Through Intercorporate Loans: The China Experience, Guohua Jiang, Charles M. C. Lee, Heng Yue
Research Collection School of Accountancy
This study investigates a particularly brazen form of corporate abuse, in which controlling shareholders use intercorporate loans to siphon billions of RMB from hundreds of Chinese listed companies during the 1996 to 2006 period. We document the nature and extent of these transactions, evaluate their economic consequences, examine factors that affect their cross-sectional severity, and report on the mitigating roles of auditors, institutional investors, and regulators. Collectively, our findings shed light on the severity of the minority shareholder expropriation problem in China, as well as the relative efficacy of various legal and extra-legal governance mechanisms in that country.
Dating The Timeline Of Financial Bubbles During The Subprime Crisis, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu
Dating The Timeline Of Financial Bubbles During The Subprime Crisis, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
A new recursive regression methodology is introduced to analyze the bubble characteristics of various financial time series during the subprime crisis. The methods modify a technique proposed in Phillips, Wu, and Yu (2011) and provide a technology for identifying bubble behavior with consistent dating of their origination and collapse. The tests serve as an early warning diagnostic of bubble activity and a new procedure is introduced for testing bubble migration across markets. Three relevant financial series are investigated, including a financial asset price (a house price index), a commodity price (the crude oil price), and one bond price (the spread …
Forecasting Realized Volatility Using A Nonnegative Semiparametric Model, D. Preve, A. Eriksson, Jun Yu
Forecasting Realized Volatility Using A Nonnegative Semiparametric Model, D. Preve, A. Eriksson, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper introduces a parsimonious and yet flexible nonnegative semiparametric model to forecast volatility. The new model extends the linear nonnegative autoregressive model of Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (2001) and Nielsen and Shephard (2003) by way of a Box-Cox transformation. It is semiparametric in the sense that the dependency structure and the distributional form of its error component are left unspecified. The statistical properties of the model are discussed and a novel estimation method is proposed. Its out-of-sample performance is evaluated against a number of standard methods, using data on S&P 500 monthly realized volatilities. The competing models include the exponential …
Why Did Universities Precede Primary Schools? A Political Economy Model Of Educational Change, Fali Huang
Why Did Universities Precede Primary Schools? A Political Economy Model Of Educational Change, Fali Huang
Research Collection School Of Economics
Universities were first established in Europe around the twelfth century, while primary schools did not appear until the nineteenth. This paper accounts for this phenomenon using a political economy model of educational change on who are educated (the elite or the masses) and what is taught (general or specific/vocational education). A key assumption is that general education is more effective than specific education in enhancing one’s skills in a broad range of tasks, including political rent-seeking. Its findings suggest that specific education for the masses is compatible with the elite rule, while mass general education is not, which refines the …
Econometric Analysis Of Continuous Time Models: A Survey Of Peter Philip’S Work And Some New Results, Jun Yu
Econometric Analysis Of Continuous Time Models: A Survey Of Peter Philip’S Work And Some New Results, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
Econometric analysis of continuous time models has drawn the attention of Peter Phillips for nearly 40 years, resulting in many important publications by him. In these publications he has dealt with a wide range of continuous time models and econometric problems, from univariate equations to systems of equations, from asymptotic theory to nite sample issues, from parametric models to nonparametric models, from identication problems to estimation and inference problems, from stationary models to nonstationary and nearly nonstationary models. This paper provides an overview of Peter Phillips' contributions in the continuous time econometrics literature. We review the problems that have been …
Directed Altruism And Enforced Reciprocity In Social Networks, Stephen Leider, Markus M. Mobius, Tanya Rosenblat, Quoc-Anh Do
Directed Altruism And Enforced Reciprocity In Social Networks, Stephen Leider, Markus M. Mobius, Tanya Rosenblat, Quoc-Anh Do
Research Collection School Of Economics
We conducted online field experiments in large real-world social networks in order to decompose prosocial giving into three components: (1) baseline altruism toward randomly selected strangers, (2) directed altruism that favors friends over random strangers, and (3) giving motivated by the prospect of future interaction. Directed altruism increases giving to friends by 52% relative to random strangers, whereas future interaction effects increase giving by an additional 24% when giving is socially efficient. This finding suggests that future interaction affects giving through a repeated game mechanism where agents can be rewarded for granting efficiency-enhancing favors. We also find that subjects with …
Bias In The Estimation Of The Mean Reversion Parameter In Continuous Time Models, Jun Yu
Bias In The Estimation Of The Mean Reversion Parameter In Continuous Time Models, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
It is well known that for continuous time models with a linear drift standard estimation methods yield biased estimators for the mean reversion parameter both in nite discrete samples and in large in-…ll samples. In this paper, we obtain two expressions to approximate the bias of the least squares/maximum likelihood estimator of the mean reversion parameter in the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with a known long run mean when discretely sampled data are available. The first expression mimics the bias formula of Marriott and Pope (1954) for the discrete time model. Simulations show that this expression does not work satisfactorily when the …
Brokerage Industry Self-Regulation: The Case Of Analysts’ Background Disclosures, Lawrence Brown, Artur Hugon, Hai Lu
Brokerage Industry Self-Regulation: The Case Of Analysts’ Background Disclosures, Lawrence Brown, Artur Hugon, Hai Lu
Research Collection School Of Accountancy
We evaluate an industry disclosure initiative designed to inform investors, the practice of providing information regarding investment professionals’ backgrounds. Implicit in the motivation for this initiative is the presumed relevance of background information to investors seeking investment professionals’ guidance. We find that analysts with disclosure incidents forecast less accurately than a matched sample of analysts without such disclosures, and that the market views disclosed analysts’ earnings forecasts as less credible than those of the matched sample. Our evidence is consistent with disclosures signaling a persistent analyst characteristic. We conclude that analyst backgrounds are informative regarding both the accuracy and credibility …
Compassion: Why It Is Better To Eat Fish, Knowledge@Smu
Compassion: Why It Is Better To Eat Fish, Knowledge@Smu
Knowledge@SMU
Compassion was probably the farthest notion from Colonel Sanders’ mind when he became the global poster boy for delicious fried chicken. He had started his business in the early twentieth century – a period marked by the great depression and two world wars. Prejudices festered under the hostile global climate then, where little consideration was given to the suffering of human beings, much less animals. However, with the progress of time, scientific advancements have urged us, increasingly, to be kinder to fellow humans, animals, the environment… and that we really ought to be munching on fried fish instead.
Bayesian Analysis Of Structural Credit Risk Models With Microstructure Noises, Shirley J. Huang, Jun Yu
Bayesian Analysis Of Structural Credit Risk Models With Microstructure Noises, Shirley J. Huang, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
In this paper a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique is developed for the Bayesian analysis of structural credit risk models with microstructure noises. The technique is based on the general Bayesian approach with posterior computations performed by Gibbs sampling. Simulations from the Markov chain, whose stationary distribution converges to the posterior distribution, enable exact ¯nite sample inferences of model parameters. The exact inferences can easily be extended to latent state variables and any nonlinear transformation of state variables and parameters, facilitating practical credit risk applications. In addition, the comparison of alternative models can be based on deviance information criterion …
Economic Transition And Growth, Peter C. B. Phillips, Donggyu Sul
Economic Transition And Growth, Peter C. B. Phillips, Donggyu Sul
Research Collection School Of Economics
Some extensions of neoclassical growth models are discussed that allow for cross-section heterogeneity among economies and evolution in rates of technological progress over time. The models offer a spectrum of transitional behavior among economies that includes convergence to a common steady-state path as well as various forms of transitional divergence and convergence. Mechanisms for modeling such transitions, measuring them econometrically, assessing group behavior and selecting subgroups are developed in the paper. Some econometric issues with the commonly used augmented Solow regressions are pointed out, including problems of endogeneity and omitted variable bias which arise under conditions of transitional heterogeneity. Alternative …
Automated Likelihood Based Inference For Stochastic Volatility Models, H. Skaug, Jun Yu
Automated Likelihood Based Inference For Stochastic Volatility Models, H. Skaug, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
The Laplace approximation is used to perform maximum likelihood estimation of univariate and multivariate stochastic volatility (SV) models. It is shown that the implementation of the Laplace approximation is greatly simplified by the use of a numerical technique known as automatic differentiation (AD). Several algorithms are proposed and compared with some existing maximum likelihood methods using both simulated data and actual data. It is found that the new methods match the statistical efficiency of the existing methods while significantly reducing the coding effort. Also proposed are simple methods for obtaining the filtered, smoothed and predictive values for the latent variable. …
Transformation Of The Urban Rail Sector Through Ppp, Sock-Yong Phang
Transformation Of The Urban Rail Sector Through Ppp, Sock-Yong Phang
Research Collection School Of Economics
The recent proliferation of Public Private Partnership (PPP) projects in numerous cities has transformed the urban rail sector. The enthusiasm for PPPs can be explained by improved understanding of efficiency gains and risks of bundling and unbundling tasks as well as availability and lower cost of private sector finance. The four main PPP approaches identified are: (i) development of new systems through DBFOs (Design- Build-Finance-Operate); (ii) concessioning of rail and subway services; (iii) sale of stateowned operators through share issue privatisation; and (iv) PPPs for infrastructure maintenance and upgrading. This paper examines examples of successes and failures to better understand …
Trade, Growth And Increasing Returns To Infrastructure: The Role Of The Sophisticated Monopolist, Ashok S. Guha, Brishti Guha
Trade, Growth And Increasing Returns To Infrastructure: The Role Of The Sophisticated Monopolist, Ashok S. Guha, Brishti Guha
Research Collection School Of Economics
Equilibrium in international trade with increasing returns in infrastructure depends on whether the infrastructure provider is “naïve” or sophisticated. A monopolist produces infrastructure under decreasing cost using fixed equipment. Unlike similar work, we derive a unique closed-economy equilibrium. In a small open economy, with “naïve” infrastructure provider(s), multiple equilibria obtain. The industrial export potential of the economy depends on unexhausted economies of scale, and equilibria are possible where manufactures are exported despite an autarky price higher than the world price. With a sophisticated infrastructure provider, even an open economy has a unique equilibrium, which, at least as long as economies …
Affordable Homeownership Policy: Implications For Housing Markets, Sock Yong Phang
Affordable Homeownership Policy: Implications For Housing Markets, Sock Yong Phang
Research Collection School Of Economics
Affordable homeownership is a policy that is often accorded a great deal of policy attention by governments of many countries. In this paper, we examine the market implications of setting a housing price to income ratio target for a market segment by the government. The policy requires active intervention by the government with regard to the targeted sector. We use a simple model of the housing market with a homeownership affordability target to derive the market implications of such targets. In the presence of uncertainty and resource constraints, the objective of homeownership affordability is achieved for the targeted group at …
Explosive Behavior In The 1990s Nasdaq: When Did Exuberance Escalate Asset Values?, Peter C. B. Phillips, Yangru Wu, Jun Yu
Explosive Behavior In The 1990s Nasdaq: When Did Exuberance Escalate Asset Values?, Peter C. B. Phillips, Yangru Wu, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
A recursive test procedure is suggested that provides a mechanism for testing explosive behavior, date-stamping the origination and collapse of economic exuberance, and providing valid confidence intervals for explosive growth rates. The method involves the recursive implementation of a right-side unit root test and a sup test, both of which are easy to use in practical applications, and some new limit theory for mildly explosive processes. The test procedure is shown to have discriminatory power in detecting periodically collapsing bubbles, thereby overcoming a weakness in earlier applications of unit root tests for economic bubbles. Some asymptotic properties of the Evans …
Stimulated Maximum Likelihood Estimation Of Continuous Time Stochastic Volatility Models, Tore Selland Kleppe, Jun Yu, Hans J. Skaug
Stimulated Maximum Likelihood Estimation Of Continuous Time Stochastic Volatility Models, Tore Selland Kleppe, Jun Yu, Hans J. Skaug
Research Collection School Of Economics
In this paper we develop and implement a method for maximum simulated likelihood estimation of the continuous time stochastic volatility model with the constant elasticity of volatility. The approach do not require observations on option prices nor volatility. To integrate out latent volatility from the joint density of return and volatility, a modified efficient importance sampling technique is used after the continuous time model is approximated using the Euler-Maruyama scheme. The Monte Carlo studies show that the method works well and the empirical applications illustrate usefulness of the method. Empirical results provide strong evidence against the Heston model.
A Semi-Parametric Two-Stage Projection Type Estimator Of Multivalued Treatment Effects, Aurobindo Ghosh
A Semi-Parametric Two-Stage Projection Type Estimator Of Multivalued Treatment Effects, Aurobindo Ghosh
Research Collection School Of Economics
One of the most well documented regularities in evaluation literature like returns to schooling(or funding for programs) is that several factors come together to confound the measurement of its effect. First, in observational studies the true return is often individual specific, and so it is almost impossible to use a traditional treatment effect models with randomly assigned treatment and control groups. This endogeneity in the model further exacerbates our inability to conduct such trials. Second, the problem is not a classical treatment effect measurement problem where we have discrete or more often binary treatments. Hence, techniques like measuring the Local …
Foreign Direct Investment And Foreign Portfolio Investment Under Asymmetric Information, Ruanjai Suwantaradon
Foreign Direct Investment And Foreign Portfolio Investment Under Asymmetric Information, Ruanjai Suwantaradon
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper develops a model of international capital flows when there is asymmetric information between foreign investors and domestic managers. Direct investors have a direct influence on the management, thus overcoming agency and information problems. This information advantage, however, comes at the cost of having to acquire management expertise. The tradeoff between management costs and the costs of asymmetric information consequently determines the level and composition of a country’s international capital flows. Analyzing how this tradeoff changes with economic conditions in a country, the model can qualitatively capture the experiences of many crisis countries during the 1990s. Specifically, the model …
Monetary Policy And Asset Prices In A Small Open Economy: A Factor-Augmented Var Analysis For Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow, Keen Meng Choy
Monetary Policy And Asset Prices In A Small Open Economy: A Factor-Augmented Var Analysis For Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow, Keen Meng Choy
Research Collection School Of Economics
The ongoing global financial turmoil has revived the question of whether central bankers ought to tighten monetary policy preemptively in order to head off asset price misalignments before a sudden crash triggers financial instability. This study explores the issue of the appropriate monetary policy response to asset price swings in the small open economy of Singapore. Empirical analysis of monetary policy based on standard VAR models, unfortunately, is often hindered by the use of sparse information sets. To better reflect the extensive information monitored by Singapore’s central bank, including global economic indicators, we augment a monetary VAR model with common …
Analyzing And Forecasting Business Cycles In A Small Open Economy: A Dynamic Factor Model For Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow, Keen Meng Choy
Analyzing And Forecasting Business Cycles In A Small Open Economy: A Dynamic Factor Model For Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow, Keen Meng Choy
Research Collection School Of Economics
A dynamic factor model is applied to a large panel dataset of Singapore’s macroeconomic variables and global economic indicators with the initial objective of analysing business cycles in a small open economy. The empirical results suggest that four common factors – which can broadly be interpreted as world, regional, electronics and domestic economic cycles – capture a large proportion of the co-variation in the quarterly time series. The estimated factor model also explains well the observed fluctuations in real economic activity and price inflation, leading us to use it in forecasting Singapore’s business cycles. We find that the forecasts generated …
A Nonparametric Goodness-Of-Fit-Based Test For Conditional Heteroskedasticity, Liangjun Su, Aman Ullah
A Nonparametric Goodness-Of-Fit-Based Test For Conditional Heteroskedasticity, Liangjun Su, Aman Ullah
Research Collection School Of Economics
In this paper we propose a nonparametric test for conditional heteroskedasticity based on a new measure of nonparametric goodness-of-fit (R2). In analogy with the ANOVA tools for classical linear regression models, the nonparametric R2 is obtained for the local polynomial regression of the residuals from a parametric regression on some covariates. It is close to 0 under the null hypothesis of conditional homoskedasticity and stays away from 0 otherwise. Unlike most popular parametric tests in the literature, the new test does not require the correct specification of parametric conditional heteroskedasticity form and thus is able to detect all kinds of …
Booty Calls: Is It Just About Sex?, Knowledge@Smu
Booty Calls: Is It Just About Sex?, Knowledge@Smu
Knowledge@SMU
It may seem that booty calls serve men more so than women. After all, men desire sex more than women – a notion often rationalised by the lower biological cost of sex to men, compared to women. However, if booty calls favour men more than women, why might women be inclined to entertain calls for casual sex? Psychology professor Norman Li believes that booty calls should be looked upon as more than just sex; that it is, in fact, a strategy employed by both sexes in negotiating between their needs.
Econometric Forecasting And High-Frequency Data Analysis, Yiu Kuen Tse, Yiu Kuen Tse
Econometric Forecasting And High-Frequency Data Analysis, Yiu Kuen Tse, Yiu Kuen Tse
Research Collection School of Economics
This important book consists of surveys of high-frequency financial data analysis and econometric forecasting, written by pioneers in these areas including Nobel laureate Lawrence Klein. Some of the chapters were presented as tutorials to an audience in the Econometric Forecasting and High-Frequency Data Analysis Workshop at the Institute for Mathematical Science, National University of Singapore in May 2006. They will be of interest to researchers working in macroeconometrics as well as financial econometrics. Moreover, readers will find these chapters useful as a guide to the literature as well as suggestions for future research.
Testing Structural Change In Conditional Distributions Via Quantile Regressions, Liangjun Su, Zhijie Xiao
Testing Structural Change In Conditional Distributions Via Quantile Regressions, Liangjun Su, Zhijie Xiao
Research Collection School Of Economics
We propose tests for structural change in conditional distributions via quantile regressions. To avoid misspecification on the conditioning relationship, we construct the tests based on the residuals from local polynomial quantile regressions. In particular, the tests are based upon the cumulative sums of generalized residuals from quantile regressions and have power against local alternatives at rate n−1/2. We derive the limiting distributions for our tests under the null hypothesis of no structural change and a sequence of local alternatives. The proposed tests apply to a wide range of dynamic models, including time series regressions with m.d.s. errors, as well as …
Simulation-Based Estimation Of Contingent-Claims Prices, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu
Simulation-Based Estimation Of Contingent-Claims Prices, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
A new methodology is proposed to estimate theoretical prices of financial contingent claims whose values are dependent on some other underlying financial assets. In the literature, the preferred choice of estimator is usually maximum likelihood (ML). ML has strong asymptotic justification but is not necessarily the best method in finite samples. This paper proposes a simulation-based method. When it is used in connection with ML, it can improve the finite-sample performance of the ML estimator while maintaining its good asymptotic properties. The method is implemented and evaluated here in the Black-Scholes option pricing model and in the Vasicek bond and …
Estimation Of Bidder Valuations In An Fcc Spectrum Auction, Jungwon Yeo
Estimation Of Bidder Valuations In An Fcc Spectrum Auction, Jungwon Yeo
Research Collection School Of Economics
The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) uses auctions to allocate radio spectrum frequencies to wireless service providers. The innovation of the auction design is that it offers many heterogeneous licenses simultaneously in one ascending auction. This paper develops an empirical model and procedure to estimate bidder valuations. Given that the complex nature of the auction does not admit formal modeling in a general setting, I do not explore a particular model of equilibrium bidding. Instead, I propose two revealed preference inequalities which should hold in any reasonable model of these auctions. The .rst inequality requires that a bidder never bids on …
Power Maximization And Size Control In Heteroskedasticity And Autocorrelation Robust Tests With Exponentiated Kernels, Yixiao Sun, Peter C. B. Phillips, Sainan Jin
Power Maximization And Size Control In Heteroskedasticity And Autocorrelation Robust Tests With Exponentiated Kernels, Yixiao Sun, Peter C. B. Phillips, Sainan Jin
Research Collection School Of Economics
Using the power kernels of Phillips, Sun and Jin (2006, 2007), we examine the large sample asymptotic properties of the t-test for different choices of power parameter (rho). We show that the nonstandard fixed-rho limit distributions of the t-statistic provide more accurate approximations to the finite sample distributions than the conventional large-rho limit distribution. We prove that the second-order corrected critical value based on an asymptotic expansion of the nonstandard limit distribution is also second-order correct under the large-rho asymptotics. As a further contribution, we propose a new practical procedure for selecting the test-optimal power parameter that addresses the central …
Male Metal Goat Wanted: Why Our Children’S Futures May Lie In The Stars, Knowledge@Smu
Male Metal Goat Wanted: Why Our Children’S Futures May Lie In The Stars, Knowledge@Smu
Knowledge@SMU
The birth of a child is usually a joyous occasion. In many Asian societies, it also represents an important milestone for families - so important that spiritual mediums have to be consulted and fortunes told, for there are auspicious and inauspicious times to bear a child. While the idea of birth planning by means of star-gazing may sound ludicrous, research has shown that ‘auspicious children’ do indeed fare better. Are there mystical powers at play? A study of child births and children in Vietnam provides an unusual take on the motivating factors behind a child’s future.