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Articles 61 - 90 of 101
Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
The Unintended Consequences Of International Student Shortage: Evidence From A Policy Reform In South Korea, Syngjoo Choi, Chung-Yoon Choi, Kim, Jongkwan Lee
The Unintended Consequences Of International Student Shortage: Evidence From A Policy Reform In South Korea, Syngjoo Choi, Chung-Yoon Choi, Kim, Jongkwan Lee
Research Collection School Of Economics
We study the role of international students in the higher education sector and the local economy by exploiting a policy reform in South Korea that significantly restricted the admission of foreign students to local universities. By comparing the pre- and post-reform differences between universities with different pre-reform shares of international student enrollment, we find limiting the inflow of international students significantly worsened the financial outcomes of local universities. We also document that a reduction in the number of international students in local areas resulted in decreases in native employment, mainly in sectors such as agriculture and business support services, suggesting …
Local Dominance, Emiliano Catonini, Jingyi Xue
Local Dominance, Emiliano Catonini, Jingyi Xue
Research Collection School Of Economics
We define notions of dominance between two actions in a dynamic game. Local dominance considers players who have a blurred view of the future and compare the two actions by first focusing on the outcomes that may realize at the current stage. When considering the possibility that the game may continue, they can only check that the local comparison is not overturned under the assumption of "continuing in the same way" after the two actions (in a newly defined sense). Despite the lack of forward planning, local dominance solves dynamic mechanisms that were found easy to play and implements social …
Migration And Spatial Misallocation In China, Xiaolu Li, Lin Ma, Yang Tang
Migration And Spatial Misallocation In China, Xiaolu Li, Lin Ma, Yang Tang
Research Collection School Of Economics
We structurally estimate the firm-level frictions across prefectures in China and quantify their aggregate and distributional implications. Based on a general equi-librium model with input and output distortions and migration, we show that the firm-level frictions are less dispersed and less correlated with productivity in richer prefectures. Counterfactual exercises show that reducing the within-prefecture mis-allocation increases the aggregate welfare, discourages migration towards large cities, and narrows the spatial inequality. Moreover, internal migration alleviates the impacts of micro-frictions on aggregate welfare and worsens their impacts on spatial inequality.
Asymptotic Properties Of Least Squares Estimator In Local To Unity Processes With Fractional Gaussian Noises, Xiaohu Wang, Weilin Xiao, Jun Yu
Asymptotic Properties Of Least Squares Estimator In Local To Unity Processes With Fractional Gaussian Noises, Xiaohu Wang, Weilin Xiao, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper derives asymptotic properties of the least squares estimator of the autoregressive parameter in local to unity processes with errors being fractional Gaussian noises with the Hurst parameter H 2 (0; 1). It is shown that the estimator is consistent for all values of H 2 (0; 1). Moreover, the rate of convergence is n 1 when H 2 [0:5; 1). The rate of convergence is n 2H when H 2 (0; 0:5). Furthermore, the limiting distribution of the centered least squares estimator depends on H. When H = 0:5, the limiting distribution is the same as that obtained …
Adjustment With Many Regressors Under Covariate-Adaptive Randomizations, Liang Jiang, Liyao Li, Ke Miao, Yichong Zhang
Adjustment With Many Regressors Under Covariate-Adaptive Randomizations, Liang Jiang, Liyao Li, Ke Miao, Yichong Zhang
Research Collection School Of Economics
Our paper identifies a trade-off when using regression adjustments (RAs) in causal inference under covariate-adaptive randomizations (CARs). On one hand, RAs can improve the efficiency of causal estimators by incorporating information from covariates that are not used in the randomization. On the other hand, RAs can degrade estimation efficiency due to their estimation errors, which are not asymptotically negligible when the number of regressors is of the same order as the sample size. Failure to account for the cost of RAs can result in over-rejection of causal inference under the null hypothesis. To address this issue, we develop a unified …
Economic Forecasting In Singapore: The Covid-19 Experience, Hwee Kwan Chow-Tan, Keen Meng Choy
Economic Forecasting In Singapore: The Covid-19 Experience, Hwee Kwan Chow-Tan, Keen Meng Choy
Research Collection School Of Economics
This Special Feature considers how accurately professional forecasters have predicted GDP growth and inflation in Singapore, especially during rare events such as the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and COVID-19. It also illustrates the value of forecast probability distributions in inferring forecasters’ uncertainty when making predictions, and the degree of consensus between projections from different forecasters. The authors find that one-year ahead forecast errors for GDP growth and inflation increased during the GFC and the COVID-19 pandemic. While professional forecasters did not appear to have followed the Government’s forecasts when predicting growth during the GFC, they may have exhibited ”leader-following” behaviour …
Liquidity Constraints, Consumption, And Debt Repayment: Evidence From Macroprudential Policy In Turkey, Sumit Agarwal, Muris Hadzic, Changcheng Song, Yildirim Yildiray
Liquidity Constraints, Consumption, And Debt Repayment: Evidence From Macroprudential Policy In Turkey, Sumit Agarwal, Muris Hadzic, Changcheng Song, Yildirim Yildiray
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Using account-level credit card data from a large Turkish bank, we study the impact of a unique credit card policy that increases minimum payment on consumption and debt repayment. We show that the policy reduces credit card spending and debt, boosts existing debt repayment, and reduces credit card delinquency. The credit card debt of affected consumers falls on average by 50% two years into the policy’s implementation. An increase in minimum payment has a stronger effect than does a decrease of a similar magnitude. We build a benchmark life cycle model with soft liquidity constraint to explain the reduction in …
Hedging Cryptos With Bitcoin Futures, Francis Liu, Natalie Packham, Meng-Jou Lu, Wolfgang Karl Haerdle
Hedging Cryptos With Bitcoin Futures, Francis Liu, Natalie Packham, Meng-Jou Lu, Wolfgang Karl Haerdle
Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics
The introduction of derivatives on Bitcoin enables investors to hedge risk exposures in cryptocurrencies. Because of volatility swings and jumps in cryptocurrency prices, the traditional variance-based approach to obtain hedge ratios may not be suitable for hedgers. In this work, we consider two extensions of the traditional approach: first, different dependence structures are modelled by different copulae, such as the Gaussian, Student-t, Normal Inverse Gaussian and Archimedean copulae; second, different risk measures, such as value-at-risk, expected shortfall and spectral risk measures are employed to find the optimal hedge ratio. Extensive out-of-sample tests using the data from the time …
Real Estate Assets: To Build Or Not To Build?, Chaik Ming Koh
Real Estate Assets: To Build Or Not To Build?, Chaik Ming Koh
Asian Management Insights
It’s about when, not whether.
High-Dimensional Vars With Common Factors, Ke Miao, Peter C. B. Phillips, Liangjun Su
High-Dimensional Vars With Common Factors, Ke Miao, Peter C. B. Phillips, Liangjun Su
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper studies high-dimensional vector autoregressions (VARs) augmented with common factors that allow for strong cross-sectional dependence. Models of this type provide a convenient mechanism for accommodating the interconnectedness and temporal co-variability that are often present in large dimensional systems. We propose an ℓ1-nuclear-norm regularized estimator and derive the non-asymptotic upper bounds for the estimation errors as well as large sample asymptotics for the estimates. A singular value thresholding procedure is used to determine the correct number of factors with probability approaching one. Both the LASSO estimator and the conservative LASSO estimator are employed to improve estimation precision. The conservative …
Robowealth: Boosting Financial Inclusion In Thailand, Chiraphol N. Chiyachantana, David K. Ding, Pattarawan Mai Prasarnphanich, Chi Wei Chan
Robowealth: Boosting Financial Inclusion In Thailand, Chiraphol N. Chiyachantana, David K. Ding, Pattarawan Mai Prasarnphanich, Chi Wei Chan
Asian Management Insights
Advanced fintech lowers barriers to investing.
Concerns Over The Cost Of Living Among Older Adults In Singapore, Rachel Ngu, Micah Tan, Paulin T. Straughan, Seonghoon Kim, William Tov, Grace Cheong, Xiaoyan Zhang
Concerns Over The Cost Of Living Among Older Adults In Singapore, Rachel Ngu, Micah Tan, Paulin T. Straughan, Seonghoon Kim, William Tov, Grace Cheong, Xiaoyan Zhang
ROSA Research Briefs
A post-National Day Rally survey conducted in August 2022 found that the rising cost of living and health-related issues were ranked among the top concerns of Singaporeans (Baharudin, 2022). This comes as no surprise as global crises such as the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, has resulted in global and domestic inflation (Gov.sg, 2022). In May 2022, Singapore reported a 13-year high core inflation of 3.6% (Channel News Asia, 2022), while in September 2022, Singapore’s core inflation had risen to 5.3% (Ang, 2022). Additionally, the government announced that Singapore residents will see a goods and services tax (GST) …
Cities In A Pandemic: Evidence From China, Badi H. Baltagi, Ying Deng, Li Jing, Zhenlin Yang
Cities In A Pandemic: Evidence From China, Badi H. Baltagi, Ying Deng, Li Jing, Zhenlin Yang
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper studies the impact of urban density, city government efficiency, and medical resources on COVID-19 infection and death outcomes in China. We adopt a simultaneous spatial dynamic panel data model to account for (i) the simultaneity of infection and death outcomes, (ii) the spatial pattern of the transmission, (iii) the intertemporal dynamics of the disease, and (iv) the unobserved city-specific and time-specific effects. We find that, while population density increases the level of infections, government efficiency significantly mitigates the negative impact of urban density. We also find that the availability of medical resources improves public health outcomes conditional on …
Hypothesis Testing Via Posterior-Test-Based Bayes Factors, Yong Li, Nianling Wang, Jun Yu, Yonghui Zhang
Hypothesis Testing Via Posterior-Test-Based Bayes Factors, Yong Li, Nianling Wang, Jun Yu, Yonghui Zhang
Research Collection School Of Economics
Hypothesis testing via p-value has been criticized in recent years. Bayes factors (BFs) have been tipped as a possible replacement of p-value for hypothesis testing. However, the standard BFs suffer from some theoretical and practical difficulties. For example, they are not well defined under improper priors and are subject to Jeffreys-Lindley-Bartlett’s paradox under vague priors. Moreover, they are difficult to compute for many models. In this paper, we propose to compare sampling distributions of the posterior-test-based statistics for hypothesis testing. Two posterior-test-based BFs are constructed from the posterior version of the likelihood ratio test and the Wald test, respectively. Under …
Asymptotic Theory For Explosive Fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck Processes, Hui Jiang, Yajuan Pan, Weilin Liao, Qingshan Yang, Jun Yu
Asymptotic Theory For Explosive Fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck Processes, Hui Jiang, Yajuan Pan, Weilin Liao, Qingshan Yang, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper proposes estimators for the parameters of an explosive fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. The asymptotic properties for the diffusion estimators are developed under the in-fill asymptotic scheme, while the asymptotic properties for the drift estimators are developed under the double asymptotic scheme for the full range of the Hurst parameter. Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed estimators, and the asymptotic distributions provide a good approximation in finite samples. Empirical applications are presented to demonstrate the model’s usefulness and the practical value of the asymptotic theory.
On The Welfare Role Of Redundant Assets With Heterogenous Forecasts, Shurojit Chatterji, Atsushi Kajii
On The Welfare Role Of Redundant Assets With Heterogenous Forecasts, Shurojit Chatterji, Atsushi Kajii
Research Collection School Of Economics
We study a multiperiod model with a nominal bond that matures in one period and identify the set of e¢ cient allocations that can be sustained as Walrasian equilibria with heterogeneous forecasts. We next add a long maturity bond, which under perfect foresight would be a redundant asset, and show that it fundamentally expands the set of e¢ cient allocations that can be sustained as Walrasian equilibria. Indeed all wealth transfers compatible with e¢ ciency can arise endogenously. The key feature driving this conclusion are forecasting errors, which lead to ex post arbitrage opportunities that induce these income transfers.
Exchange-Traded Funds And Real Investment, Constantinos Antoniou, Frank Weikai Li, Xuewen Liu, Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, Chengzhu Sun
Exchange-Traded Funds And Real Investment, Constantinos Antoniou, Frank Weikai Li, Xuewen Liu, Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, Chengzhu Sun
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We investigate the link between exchange-traded funds and real investment. Cross-sectionally, higher ETF ownership is associated with an increased sensitivity of real investment to Tobin's q and a heightened ability of stock returns to forecast future earnings. Inclusion of stocks in industry ETFs enhances investment-q sensitivity and implies greater incorporation of earnings information into prices prior to public releases. Greater nonmarket ETF ownership leads to increased (reduced) reliance of real investment on own (peers') stock prices. Overall, the evidence is consistent with ETFs positively affecting real investment efficiency via greater flows of information.
Assessing The Odds Of A Us Recession, Thomas Lam, David Fernandez
Assessing The Odds Of A Us Recession, Thomas Lam, David Fernandez
Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics
In this commentary, SMU Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI) Principal Researcher Thomas Lam and SKBI Director SMU Professor of Finance (Practice) Dave Fernandez offer their perspectives on the current multifaceted and highly charged US recession debate. While America is currently not in a downturn, the near-term odds of one have edged up, according to models based on key monthly and weekly indicators.
Are Markets Interested In Adapting To Climate? Insights From Singapore, Stella Whittaker, Tran Bao Phuong Nguyen
Are Markets Interested In Adapting To Climate? Insights From Singapore, Stella Whittaker, Tran Bao Phuong Nguyen
Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics
We have collected the views of leading practitioners and academics in Singapore involved in funding and financing urban climate change adaptation1 (thereon referred to as urban adaptation). Throughout this paper we discuss several vital perspectives on adaptation financing, namely responsibility for adaptation investment, the extent of government adaptation investment, private sector adaptation investment appetite and prospects for experimentation in adaptation financing. We also attempt to shed light on the existence or not of an adaptation financing gap2 in Singapore.
Modeling And Forecasting Realized Volatility With The Fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process, Xiaohu Wang, Weilin Xiao, Jun Yu
Modeling And Forecasting Realized Volatility With The Fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process, Xiaohu Wang, Weilin Xiao, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper proposes to model and forecast realized volatility (RV) using the fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (fO-U) process with a general Hurst parameter, H. A two-stage method is introduced for estimating parameters in the fO-U process based on discrete-sampled observations. In the first stage, H is estimated based on the ratio of two second-order differences of observations from different frequencies. In the second stage, with the estimated , the other parameters of the model are estimated by the method of moments. All estimators have closed-form expressions and are easy to implement. A large sample theory of the proposed estimators is derived. Extensive …
Getting Dynamic Implementation To Work, Yi-Chun Chen, Richard Holden, Takashi Kunimoto, Yifei Sun, Tom Wilkening
Getting Dynamic Implementation To Work, Yi-Chun Chen, Richard Holden, Takashi Kunimoto, Yifei Sun, Tom Wilkening
Research Collection School Of Economics
We develop a new class of two-stage mechanisms, which fully implement any social choice function under initial rationalizability in complete information environments. We show theoretically that our Simultaneous Report (SR) mechanisms are robust to small amounts of incomplete information about the state of nature. We also highlight the robustness of the mechanisms to a wide variety of reasoning processes and behavioral assumptions. We show experimentally that a SR mechanism performs well in inducing truth-telling in both complete and incomplete information environments and that it can induce efficient investment in a two-sided hold-up problem with ex-ante investment. The SR mechanism also …
Fully Modified Least Squares Cointegrating Parameter Estimation In Multicointegrated Systems, Igor L. Kheifets, Peter C. B. Phillips
Fully Modified Least Squares Cointegrating Parameter Estimation In Multicointegrated Systems, Igor L. Kheifets, Peter C. B. Phillips
Research Collection School Of Economics
Multicointegration is traditionally defined as a particular long run relationship among variables in a parametric vector autoregressive model that introduces additional cointegrating links between these variables and partial sums of the equilibrium errors. This paper departs from the parametric model, using a semiparametric formulation that reveals the explicit role that singularity of the long run conditional covariance matrix plays in determining multicointegration. The semiparametric framework has the advantage that short run dynamics do not need to be modeled and estimation by standard techniques such as fully modified least squares (FM-OLS) on the original system is straightforward. The paper derives FM-OLS …
The Financialization Of Cryptocurrencies, Lei Huang, Tse-Chun Lin, Fangzhou Lu, Jian Sun
The Financialization Of Cryptocurrencies, Lei Huang, Tse-Chun Lin, Fangzhou Lu, Jian Sun
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We show that change in Grayscale Bitcoin Trust premium is the single most significant predictor of Bitcoin daily return. This sentiment measure is similar to the closed-end fund discount measure as in Baker and Wurgler (2006), but more likely to reflect the excess demand from traditional investors than from blockchain specialists. Although there is a substantial variation in Bitcoin price quotes worldwide, this Grayscale premium and discount predict Bitcoin daily return for the most liquid Bitcoin exchanges. Using K-means clustering and LDA analysis, we find that this predictability is especially significant when there is a large variation in bullish and …
Covariate Adjustment In Experiments With Matched Pairs, Yuehao Bai, Liang Jiang, Joseph P. Romano, Azeem M. Shaikh, Yichong Zhang
Covariate Adjustment In Experiments With Matched Pairs, Yuehao Bai, Liang Jiang, Joseph P. Romano, Azeem M. Shaikh, Yichong Zhang
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper studies inference on the average treatment effect in experiments in which treatment status is determined according to “matched pairs” and it is additionally desired to adjust for observed, baseline covariates to gain further precision. By a “matched pairs” design, we mean that units are sampled i.i.d. from the population of interest, paired according to observed, baseline covariates and finally, within each pair, one unit is selected at random for treatment. Importantly, we presume that not all observed, baseline covariates are used in determining treatment assignment. We study a broad class of estimators based on a “doubly robust” moment …
The Gender Wage Gap In An Online Labor Market: The Cost Of Interruptions, Abi Adams-Prassl, Kotaro Hara, Kristy Milland, Chris Callison-Burch
The Gender Wage Gap In An Online Labor Market: The Cost Of Interruptions, Abi Adams-Prassl, Kotaro Hara, Kristy Milland, Chris Callison-Burch
Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems
This paper analyses gender differences in working patterns and wages on Amazon Mechanical Turk, a popular online labour platform. Using information on 2 million tasks, we find no gender differences in task selection nor experience. Nonetheless, women earn 20% less per hour on average. Gender differences in working patterns are a significant driver of this wage gap. Women are more likely to interrupt their working time on the platform with consequences for their task completion speed. A follow-up survey shows that the gender differences in working patterns and hourly wages are concentrated amongst workers with children.
Impact Of Geographical Diversification And Limited Attention On Private Equity Fund Returns, Victor Ong
Impact Of Geographical Diversification And Limited Attention On Private Equity Fund Returns, Victor Ong
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This article analyzes the effect of geographical diversification on global private equity (PE) fund returns. We find that there is a negative correlation between geographical diversification and PE fund returns. To establish the causality between geographical diversification and PE fund returns, we employ an instrumental variable analysis where the instrument used is the stock market capitalization of the host country where the PE fund is based. Our results apply to Net IRR, TVPI and DPI as dependent variables used to proxy for PE fund returns in the main regression model. A one standard deviation increase in geographical diversification results in …
A Mixture Autoregressive Model Based On Student’S T–Distribution, Mika Meitz, Daniel Preve, Pentti Saikkonen
A Mixture Autoregressive Model Based On Student’S T–Distribution, Mika Meitz, Daniel Preve, Pentti Saikkonen
Research Collection School Of Economics
A new mixture autoregressive model based on Student’s t–distribution is proposed. A key feature of our model is that the conditional t–distributions of the component models are based on autoregressions that have multivariate t–distributions as their (low-dimensional) stationary distributions. That autoregressions with such stationary distributions exist is not immediate. Our formulation implies that the conditional mean of each component model is a linear function of past observations and the conditional variance is also time-varying. Compared to previous mixture autoregressive models our model may therefore be useful in applications where the data exhibits rather strong conditional heteroskedasticity. Our formulation also has …
Volatility Puzzle: Long Memory Or Antipersistency, Shuping Shi, Jun Yu
Volatility Puzzle: Long Memory Or Antipersistency, Shuping Shi, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
The log realized volatility (RV) is often modeled as an autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average model ARFIMA(1, d, 0). Two conflicting empirical results have been found in the literature. One stream shows that log RV has a long memory (i.e., the fractional parameter d > 0). The other stream suggests that the autoregressive coefficient α is near unity with antipersistent errors (i.e., d
Retail Pharmacies And Drug Diversion During The Opioid Epidemic, Aljoscha Janssen, Xuan Zhang
Retail Pharmacies And Drug Diversion During The Opioid Epidemic, Aljoscha Janssen, Xuan Zhang
Research Collection School Of Economics
This study investigates the role of retail pharmacy ownership in the opioid epidemic. Using data of prescription opioid orders, we show that compared with chain pharmacies, independent pharmacies dispense 39.1% more opioids and 60.5% more OxyContin. After an independent pharmacy becomes a chain pharmacy, opioid dispensing decreases. Using the OxyContin reformulation, which reduced non-medical demand but not the legitimate medical demand, we show that at least a third of the difference in the amount of OxyContin dispensed can be attributed to non-medical demand. We show that differences in competitive pressure and whether pharmacists own the pharmacy drive our estimates.
Decentralizability Of Efficient Allocations With Heterogenous Forecasts, Shurojit Chatterji, Atsushi Kajii
Decentralizability Of Efficient Allocations With Heterogenous Forecasts, Shurojit Chatterji, Atsushi Kajii
Research Collection School Of Economics
Do price forecasts of rational economic agents need to coincide in perfectly competitive complete markets? To address this question, we define an efficient temporary equilibrium (ETE) within the framework of a two period economy. Although an ETE allocation is intertemporally efficient and is obtained by perfect competition, it can arise without the agents forecasts being completely coordinated on a perfect foresight price. Nevertheless, it entails price forecasts delicately related with each other: we show that regardless of the number of agents, there is a one dimensional set of such Pareto efficient allocations for generic endowments.