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Articles 1 - 30 of 123
Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Economic Impact Of Targeted Government Responses To Covid-19: Evidence From The Large-Scale Cluster In Seoul, Kim, Kanghyock Koh, Jinwook Shin
Economic Impact Of Targeted Government Responses To Covid-19: Evidence From The Large-Scale Cluster In Seoul, Kim, Kanghyock Koh, Jinwook Shin
Research Collection School Of Economics
We estimate the economic impact of South Korea's targeted responses to the first large-scale COVID-19 cluster in Seoul. We find that foot traffic and retail sales decreased only within a 300 meter radius of the cluster and recovered to its pre-outbreak level after four weeks. The reductions appear to be driven by temporary business closures rather than the risk avoidance behavior of the citizens. Our results imply that less intense, but more targeted COVID-19 interventions, such as pin-pointed, temporary closures of businesses, can be a low-cost alternative after lifting strict social distancing measures.
A Practical Guide To Harnessing The Har Volatility Model, Adam Clements, Daniel P. A. Preve
A Practical Guide To Harnessing The Har Volatility Model, Adam Clements, Daniel P. A. Preve
Research Collection School Of Economics
The standard heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model is perhaps the most popular benchmark model for forecasting return volatility. It is often estimated using raw realized variance (RV) and ordinary least squares (OLS). However, given the stylized facts of RV and well-known properties of OLS, this combination should be far from ideal. The aim of this paper is to investigate how the predictive accuracy of the HAR model depends on the choice of estimator, transformation, or combination scheme made by the market practitioner. In an out-of-sample study, covering the S&P 500 index and 26 frequently traded NYSE stocks, it is found that …
Vat Treatment Of The Financial Services: Implications For The Real Economy, Ismail Baydur, Fatih Yilmaz
Vat Treatment Of The Financial Services: Implications For The Real Economy, Ismail Baydur, Fatih Yilmaz
Research Collection School Of Economics
Financial institutions are exempt from the value-added tax (VAT) in most countries. We develop a general equilibrium model with endogenous firm entry and a banking sector to accommodate three key distortions related to exempt treatment: (i) self-supply bias in the banking sector, (ii) under-taxation of payment services, and (iii) input distortions in the business sector and tax cascading. We calibrate our model to the average of Germany, France, and the UK data. Our results show that repealing exempt treatment always increases tax revenues. However, welfare gains occur only at low VAT rates due to the hump-shaped VAT Laffer curve.
What, Why And How Financial Development Matters: Evidence Of Asean-5, Asia-5 And Oecd-7 Economies, Swee Liang Tan
What, Why And How Financial Development Matters: Evidence Of Asean-5, Asia-5 And Oecd-7 Economies, Swee Liang Tan
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper analysed the association between bank and capital markets financial development with income per capita in three regions; ASEAN-5 economies (Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia), Asia-5 (Japan, China, Hong Kong SAR, South Korea and India) and OECD-7 (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, UK and US) covering the period from 2000 to 2017 using panel data analysis. Fixed effect regression models with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors to account for the problem of heteroskedastic and autocorrelated error structure are used. What ASEAN-5 can learn from Asia-5 and OECD-7 experience is that bank size does matter for Asia-5 and OECD-7 despite digital disruptions …
Economic Forecasting In An Epidemic: A Break From The Past?, Hwee Kwan Chow, Keen Meng Choy
Economic Forecasting In An Epidemic: A Break From The Past?, Hwee Kwan Chow, Keen Meng Choy
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper aims to investigate whether the predictive ability and behaviour of professional forecasters are different during the Covid-19 epidemic as compared with the global financial crisis of 2008 and normal times. To this end, we utilise a survey of professional forecasters in Singapore collated by the central bank to analyse the forecasting record for GDP growth and CPI inflation. We first examine the point forecasts to document the extent of forecast failure in the pandemic crisis and test for behavioural explanations of the possible sources of forecast errors such as leader following and herding behaviour. Using percentile-based summary measures …
Tapping On Growth Opportunities Through Trade And Investment, Andy Feng, Gerald Foong, Geraldine Lim
Tapping On Growth Opportunities Through Trade And Investment, Andy Feng, Gerald Foong, Geraldine Lim
Research Collection School Of Economics
As a small and open economy, external developments play a crucial role in shaping Singapore’s growth prospects. In particular, external demand is pivotal in supporting the growth of Singapore’s gross domestic product (GDP) beyond the limits afforded by a small domestic market. Furthermore, due to the resource constraints faced by Singapore, its production of goods and services to meet both external and domestic demand requires a substantial use of imported inputs. Apart from trade, Singapore’s openness and outward-orientation also extend to its embrace of inward and outward investments to grow its economy and create jobs for Singaporeans. In view of …
Harnessing Digitalization For Sustainable Economic Development: Insights For Asia, John Beirne, David Fernandez
Harnessing Digitalization For Sustainable Economic Development: Insights For Asia, John Beirne, David Fernandez
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Digitalization has helped to transform economies by enhancing competitiveness and productivity across a wide range of sectors. The use of big data and the rise of online platforms have accelerated this process over the past decade. In addition, the adoption of digital solutions in the face of social distancing and lockdown measures introduced due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been integral to the economic recovery process. The shift to a digitalized economy has also reduced barriers to market entry for firms, lowered inequality, and led to a promotion of social and economic inclusion. Advances in digital technology …
Does Precise Case Disclosure Limit Precautionary Behavior? Evidence From Covid-19 In Singapore, Aljoscha Janssen, Matthew H. Shapiro
Does Precise Case Disclosure Limit Precautionary Behavior? Evidence From Covid-19 In Singapore, Aljoscha Janssen, Matthew H. Shapiro
Research Collection School Of Economics
Limiting the spread of contagious diseases can involve both government-managed and voluntary efforts. Governments have a number of policy options beyond direct intervention that can shape individuals’ responses to a pandemic and its associated costs. During its first wave of COVID-19 cases, Singapore was among a few countries that attempted to adjust behavior through the announcement of detailed case information. Singapore's Ministry of Health maintained and shared precise, daily information detailing local travel behavior and residences of COVID-19 cases. We use this policy along with device-level cellphone data to quantify how local and national COVID-19 case announcements trigger differential behavioral …
Subway, Collaborative Matching, And Innovation, Yumi Koh, Li Jing, Jianhuan Xu
Subway, Collaborative Matching, And Innovation, Yumi Koh, Li Jing, Jianhuan Xu
Research Collection School Of Economics
Expansion of subway networks helps to enhance connectivity and matches of people by facilitating their mobility. Using rapid expansion of the Beijing subway from 2000 to 2018, we analyze its impact on collaborative matches in innovations. We find that an hour reduction in travel time between a pair of locations in Beijing brought a 15% to 38% increase in collaborated patents. Far-apart location pairs were more affected, and the local average treatment effect is approximately 35% to 82%. Such effect is mainly driven by increased matches among highly productive inventors due to complementarity between inventors’ productivity and travel time. At …
Stock Return Prediction Using Financial News: A Unified Sequence Model Based On Hierarchical Attention And Long-Short Term Memory Networks, Haoling Chen, Peng Liu
Stock Return Prediction Using Financial News: A Unified Sequence Model Based On Hierarchical Attention And Long-Short Term Memory Networks, Haoling Chen, Peng Liu
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Stock return prediction has been a hot topic in both research and industry given its potential for large financial gain. The return signal, apart from its inherent volatility and complexity, is often accompanied by a multitude of noises, such as other stocks’ performance, macroeconomic factors and financial news, etc. To better characterize these factors, we propose a new model that consists of two levels of sequence: an NLP-based module to capture the sequential nature of words and sentences in the financial news, and a time-series-based module to exploit the sequential nature of adjacent observations in the stock price. In this …
Socially Responsible Corporate Customers, Rui Dai, Hao Liang, Lilian Ng
Socially Responsible Corporate Customers, Rui Dai, Hao Liang, Lilian Ng
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Corporate customers are an important stakeholder in global supply chains. We employ several unique international databases to test whether socially responsible corporate customers can infuse similar socially responsible business behavior in suppliers. Our findings suggest a unilateral effect on corporate social responsibility (CSR) only from customers to suppliers, an evidence further supported by exogenous variation in customers’ close-call CSR proposals and by product scandals. Customers exert influence on suppliers’ CSR through positive assortative matching and their decision-making process. Enhanced collaborative CSR efforts help improve operational efficiency and firm valuation of both customers and suppliers but increase only the customers’ future …
Urbanization Policy And Economic Development: A Quantitative Analysis Of China's Differential Hukou Reforms, Wen-Tai Hsu, Lin Ma
Urbanization Policy And Economic Development: A Quantitative Analysis Of China's Differential Hukou Reforms, Wen-Tai Hsu, Lin Ma
Research Collection School Of Economics
The household registration system (hukou system) in China has hampered rural-urban migration by posing large migration friction. The system has been gradually relaxed in the past few decades, but the reforms have been differential in city size. We find a striking contrast in migration patterns between years 2005 and 2015; rural people tended to move more to large cities in 2005, but more to small- and medium-sized cities in 2015. We calibrate a spatial quantitative model to the world economy in both years with China divided into rural, mega-city, and other-city regions. We find that alternative urbanization policies that are …
Global Value Chain Development Report 2021: Beyond Production, Yuqing Xing, Elisabetta Gentile, David Dollar, Et Al.
Global Value Chain Development Report 2021: Beyond Production, Yuqing Xing, Elisabetta Gentile, David Dollar, Et Al.
Research Collection School Of Economics
A radical shift is underway in global value chains as they increasingly move beyond traditional manufacturing processes to services and other intangible assets. Digitization is a leading factor in this transformation, which is being accelerated by the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. The Global Value Chain Development Report 2021, the third of a biennial series, explores this shift Beyond Production. This report shows how the rise of services value chains offers a new path to development and how protectionism and geopolitical tensions, environmental risks, and pandemics are undermining the stability of global value chains and forcing their reorganization geographically.
Managing Covid And Complexities In Myanmar, Serge Pun, Chin Tiong Tan
Managing Covid And Complexities In Myanmar, Serge Pun, Chin Tiong Tan
Asian Management Insights
Serge Pun, Executive Chairman, Yoma Strategic Holdings and First Myanmar Investment, talks with Tan Chin Tiong about the opportunities and challenges of doing business in Myanmar.
Navigating The Pandemic As It Enters Its Second Year, Havovi Joshi
Navigating The Pandemic As It Enters Its Second Year, Havovi Joshi
Asian Management Insights
Many countries, enabled by the rapid vaccine rollout, experienced some moments of relief from the Covid-19 pandemic as they embarked on their long and winding transition toward normalcy. However, despite the Herculean effort expended, achieving herd immunity remains a distant goal for many due to the emergence of the highly transmissible and lethal Delta variant and the persistence of vaccine hesitancy. As such, the coronavirus continues to upend lives, businesses, and society, and the playbook for survival will still be a work-in-progress
Algorithmic Transparency, Jian Sun
Algorithmic Transparency, Jian Sun
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
I study the optimal algorithmic disclosure in a lending market where lenders use a predictive algorithm to mitigate adverse selection. The predictive algorithm is unobservable to borrowers and uses a manipulable borrower feature as input. A regulator maximizes market efficiency by disclosing information about the statistical properties of variables embedded in the predictive algorithm to borrowers. Under the optimal disclosure policy, the posterior belief consists of two disjoint regions in which the borrower feature is more relevant and less relevant in predicting borrower quality, respectively. The optimal disclosure policy differentiates posterior lending market equilibria by the equilibrium data manipulation levels. …
Volatility Timing Under Low-Volatility Strategy, Poh Ling Neo, Chyng Wen Tee
Volatility Timing Under Low-Volatility Strategy, Poh Ling Neo, Chyng Wen Tee
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
The authors show that the slope of the volatility decile portfolio’s return profile contains valuable information that can be used to time volatility under different market conditions in the United States. During good (bad) market conditions, the high- (low-) volatility portfolio produces the highest return. The authors proceed to devise a volatility timing strategy based on statistical tests on the slope of the volatility decile portfolio’s return profile. Volatility timing is achieved by being aggressive during strong growth periods and conservative during market downturns. Superior performance is obtained, with an additional return of 4.1% observed in the volatility timing strategy, …
Health Insurance And Subjective Well-Being: Evidence From Two Healthcare Reforms In The United States, Seonghoon Kim
Health Insurance And Subjective Well-Being: Evidence From Two Healthcare Reforms In The United States, Seonghoon Kim
Research Collection School Of Economics
We study the role of access to health insurance coverage as a determinant of individuals' subjective well-being (SWB) by analyzing large-scale healthcare reforms in the United States. Using data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we find that the 2006 Massachusetts reform and 2014 Affordable Care Act Medicaid expansion improved the overall life satisfaction of Massachusetts residents and low-income adults in Medicaid expansion states, respectively. The results are robust to various sensitivity and falsification tests. Our findings imply that access to health insurance plays an important role in improving SWB. Without considering psychological …
Fixed-K Inference For Volatility, Tim Bollerslev, Jia Li, Zhipeng Liao
Fixed-K Inference For Volatility, Tim Bollerslev, Jia Li, Zhipeng Liao
Research Collection School Of Economics
We present a new theory for the conduct of nonparametric inference about the latent spot volatility of a semimartingale asset price process. In contrast to existing theories based on the asymptotic notion of an increasing number of observations in local estimation blocks, our theory treats the estimation block size k as fixed. While the resulting spot volatility estimator is no longer consistent, the new theory permits the construction of asymptotically valid and easy-to-calculate pointwise confidence intervals for the volatility at any given point in time. Extending the theory to a high-dimensional inference setting with a growing number of estimation blocks …
Analysis Of Factors Influencing The Bailout Of Distressed Enterprises By Local Asset Management Companies, Houwen Li
Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)
In recent years, the number of distressed enterprises in China has gradually increased due to radical enterprise strategies, excessive expansion, poor management, and a trend of accelerating growth. Unable to adapt to fierce market competition, a large number of “zombie enterprises” disrupt the market order, reduce the use efficiency of social resources, and aggravate market risks. However, some enterprises are
temporarily caught in financial distress due to a deterioration of their financial situation caused by factors such as debt structure or capital liquidity. If such enterprises can be bailed out in time, they can escape their distress, which not only …
Social Norms And Fertility, Sunha Myong, Junghae Park, Junjian Yi
Social Norms And Fertility, Sunha Myong, Junghae Park, Junjian Yi
Research Collection School Of Economics
We document three stylized facts on marriage and fertility patterns in East Asian societies: (i) their marriage rates are among the highest in the world, but their total fertility is the lowest; (ii) although they have the lowest total fertility, almost all married women have at least one child; and (iii) almost no single women have any children. As these societies have been influenced by Confucianism over millennia, marriage and fertility decisions are potentially shaped by two social norms: the unequal gender division of childcare and the stigma attached to out-of-wedlock births. We present a model incorporating the two social …
The Price Elasticity Of African Elephant Poaching, Quy-Toan Do, Andrei A. Levchenko, Lin Ma, Julian Blanc, Holly Dublin, Tom Milliken
The Price Elasticity Of African Elephant Poaching, Quy-Toan Do, Andrei A. Levchenko, Lin Ma, Julian Blanc, Holly Dublin, Tom Milliken
Research Collection School Of Economics
The objective of this paper is to provide an estimate of the elasticity of elephant poaching with respect to prices. Ivory being a storable commodity subjects its price to Hotelling’s no-arbitrage condition, hence allowing identification of the supply curve. The price of gold, one of many commodities used as stores of value, is thus used as an instrument for ivory prices. The supply of illegal ivory is found to be price inelastic with an elasticity of 0.4, with changes in consumer prices passing-through to prices faced by producers at a rate close to unity. Estimations based on a number of …
Air Pollution, Behavioral Bias, And The Disposition Effect In China, Jennifer (Jie) Li, Massimo Massa, Hong Zhang, Jian Zhang
Air Pollution, Behavioral Bias, And The Disposition Effect In China, Jennifer (Jie) Li, Massimo Massa, Hong Zhang, Jian Zhang
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Inspired by the recent health science findings that air pollution affects mental health and cognition, we examine whether air pollution can intensify the cognitive bias observed in the financial markets. Based on a proprietary data set obtained from a large Chinese mutual fund family consisting of complete trading information for more than 773,198 ac-counts in 247 cities, we find that air pollution significantly increases investors' disposition effects. Analysis based on two plausible exogenous variations in air quality (the vast dissi-pation of air pollution caused by strong winds and the Huai River policy) supports a causal interpretation. Mood regulation provides a …
Spatial Dynamic Models With Short Panels: Evaluating The Impact Of Home Purchase Restrictions On Housing Prices, Naqun Huang, Zhenlin Yang
Spatial Dynamic Models With Short Panels: Evaluating The Impact Of Home Purchase Restrictions On Housing Prices, Naqun Huang, Zhenlin Yang
Research Collection School Of Economics
Since the 2007 housing crisis in the United States, many countries have begun implementing various macroprudential policies to curb the ongoing rise in housing prices. As there is no clear consensus in the literature on the efficacy of these interventions, understanding their short-term impacts is crucial in informing future policy designs. Adapting a new econometric technique, we examine the short-term impact of home purchase restrictions in Singapore, accounting for the short panel nature of the data and the existence of dynamic, spatial, spatiotemporal, and unit-specific effects. Using quarterly housing data over 2012Q4-2014Q2, we find that public housing prices decrease by …
Decree Power In Parliamentary Systems: Theory And Evidence From India, Madhav Shrihari Aney, Shubhankar Dam
Decree Power In Parliamentary Systems: Theory And Evidence From India, Madhav Shrihari Aney, Shubhankar Dam
Research Collection School Of Economics
Decree powers are common to presidential systems; they are rarely found in parliamentary ones. We analyze decree powers in one such rare setting: India. We show that bicameral minority governments in India systematically use ordinances to circumvent parliament and prosecute their legislative agendas. They promulgate more ordinances, enact less legislation, and often repromulgate lapsed ordinances. These patterns suggest that, with bicameral minority governments, the locus of lawmaking shifts to the executive branch. While both majority and minority governments invoke ordinances, the latter do so systematically to get around their parliamentary deficit. In the hands of minority governments, then, the mechanism …
Innovating In Traditional Real Estate Business Development Based On Value Co-Creation, Ya Zhang
Innovating In Traditional Real Estate Business Development Based On Value Co-Creation, Ya Zhang
Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)
The real estate industry is an important aspect of China's social development and plays a pivotal role in economic growth. With the development of urbanization in my country, the supply relationship in the real estate industry has changed, consumer demand has become more rational, and the real estate industry’s financial and investment attributes have been superimposed on the influence of the real estate industry. The competition among small and medium real estate companies with relatively weak resource endowments has become increasingly fierce. Some land expansion models can no longer adapt to the development of the new situation. How to survive …
A Study On Constructing The Fourth Financial Statement For The Performance Prediction And Value Assessment Of Internet Enterprises In The Food Industry, Jianxin Zhang
Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)
For a long time, industry, financial institutions, PE investment funds, and capital market investors have determined the business performance and market value of a company, usually based on the data of the three audited financial tables provided by the company, and further comprehensive analysis will be carried out the evaluation. Due to the limitations of accounting standards, the three financial tables cannot truly reflect all the business conditions of the enterprise. At the same time, the economic stage with traditional manufacturing as the main body and the economic stage with the digital economy as the main body are concerned with …
Challenges To Social Mobility In Singapore, Kong Weng Ho, Marcus Kheng Tat Tan
Challenges To Social Mobility In Singapore, Kong Weng Ho, Marcus Kheng Tat Tan
Research Collection School Of Economics
Singapore had achieved impressive economic growth together with a high level of upward mobility since her independence in 1965. However, the growth process might have become more uneven, in addition to diminishing growth for a matured economy like Singapore, which is also a highly open city state subject to competitive forces from other economies. Singapore has fared well recently,
evident from the 2020 social mobility findings reported by the World Economic Forum and the decline in Gini coefficients for the past decade. We discuss the education system in Singapore and the recently formed National Jobs Council, both important institutions for …
When Running For Office Runs In The Family: Horizontal Dynasties, Policy And Development In The Philippines, Dean C. Dulay
When Running For Office Runs In The Family: Horizontal Dynasties, Policy And Development In The Philippines, Dean C. Dulay
Research Collection School of Social Sciences
Political dynasties exist in practically every variant of democracy, but take different forms in different places. Yet the types of dynastic structures have remained unexplored. We argue that horizontal dynasties—multiple members from the same political family holding different political offices concurrently— affect policymaking by replacing potential political rivals, who may oppose an incumbent’s policy choices, with a member of the family. But in developing countries, the policy change that accrues from dynastic status may not lead to higher levels of economic development. We test this argument’s implications in the Philippines. Employing a close elections regression discontinuity design on a sample …
The Importance Of Considering Debt And Young Children In Activation: A Survival Analysis Of Return To Welfare, Irene N. Y. Ng, Jian Qi Tan, Mathews Mathew, Kong Weng Ho, Yi Ting Ting
The Importance Of Considering Debt And Young Children In Activation: A Survival Analysis Of Return To Welfare, Irene N. Y. Ng, Jian Qi Tan, Mathews Mathew, Kong Weng Ho, Yi Ting Ting
Research Collection School Of Economics
While there has been much research on welfare exit and entry into employment, less research has looked at return to government assistance. Applying survival analysis on data from a national government assistance programme in Singapore, we found two important factors of welfare return to which activation programmes need to pay greater attention. First, return was more likely if former beneficiaries accumulated a higher number of types of arrears rather than higher dollar values of arrears. This new finding contributes to the emerging literature on bandwidth tax, and suggests the importance of designing programmes that relieve mental accounting due to debt …