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Articles 1 - 30 of 80
Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Simulation-Based Estimation Of Contingent-Claims Prices, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu
Simulation-Based Estimation Of Contingent-Claims Prices, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
A new methodology is proposed to estimate theortical prices of financial contingent-claims whose values are dependent on some other underlying financial assets. In the literature the preferred choice of estimator is usually maximum likelihood (ML). ML has strong asymptotic justification but is not necessarily the best method in finite samples. The present paper proposes instead a simulation-based method that improves the finite sample performance of the ML estimator while maintaining its good asymptotic properties. The methods are implemented and evaluated here in the Black-Scholes option pricing model and in the Vasicek bond pricing model, but have wider applicability. Monte Carlo …
Maximum Likelihood And Gaussian Estimation Of Continuous Time Models In Finance, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu
Maximum Likelihood And Gaussian Estimation Of Continuous Time Models In Finance, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper overviews maximum likelihood and Gaussian methods of estimating continuous time models used in finance. Since the exact likelihood can be constructed only in special cases, much attention has been devoted to the development of methods designed to approximate the likelihood. These approaches range from crude Euler-type approximations and higher order stochastic Taylor series expansions to more complex polynomial-based expansions and infill approximations to the likelihood based on a continuous time data record. The methods are discussed, their properties are outlined and their relative finite sample performance compared in a simulation experiment with the nonlinear CIR diffusion model, which …
Indirect Inference For Dynamic Panel Models, Christian Gourieroux, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu
Indirect Inference For Dynamic Panel Models, Christian Gourieroux, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
It is well-known that maximum likelihood (ML) estimation of the autoregressive parameter of a dynamic panel data model with fixed effects is inconsistent under fixed time series sample size (T) and large cross section sample size (N) asymptotics. The estimation bias is particularly relevant in practical applications when T is small and the autoregressive parameter is close to unity. The present paper proposes a general, computationally inexpensive method of bias reduction that is based on indirect inference (Gouriéroux et al., 1993), shows unbiasedness and analyzes efficiency. The method is implemented in a simple linear dynamic panel model, but has wider …
Multivariate Stochastic Volatility, Manabu Asai, Michael Mcaleer, Jun Yu
Multivariate Stochastic Volatility, Manabu Asai, Michael Mcaleer, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
The literature on multivariate stochastic volatility (MSV) models has developed significantly over the last few years. This paper reviews the substantial literature on specification, estimation and evaluation of MSV models. A wide range of MSV models is presented according to various categories, namely (i) asymmetric models; (ii) factor models; (iii) time-varying correlation models; and (iv) alternative MSV specifications, including models based on the matrix exponential transformation, Cholesky decomposition, Wishart autoregressive process, and the empirical range. Alternative methods of estimation, including quasi-maximum likelihood, simulated maximum likelihood, Monte Carlo likelihood, and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, are discussed and compared. Various methods …
Household Heterogeneity And Optimal Inter-Temporal Pricing For A Durable-Good Monopoly, Winston T. H. Koh
Household Heterogeneity And Optimal Inter-Temporal Pricing For A Durable-Good Monopoly, Winston T. H. Koh
Research Collection School Of Economics
In this paper, I extend the analysis in Koh (2006) to examine the optimality of inter-temporal price discrimination for a durable-good monopoly in a model where infinitely-lived households consume both durable goods and a stream of non-durable goods subject to different inter-temporal budget constraints. I also consider the multi-dimensional setting where households differ in both inter-temporal budget constraints and the utilities they derive from the consumption of the durable good.
A Two-Stage Realized Volatility Approach To Estimation Of Diffusion Processes With Discrete Data, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu
A Two-Stage Realized Volatility Approach To Estimation Of Diffusion Processes With Discrete Data, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper motivates and introduces a two-stage method of estimating diffusion processes based on discretely sampled observations. In the first stage we make use of the feasible central limit theory for realized volatility, as developed in [Jacod, J., 1994] and [Barndorff-Nielsen, O., Shephard, N., 2002], to provide a regression model for estimating the parameters in the diffusion function. In the second stage, the in-fill likelihood function is derived by means of the Girsanov theorem and then used to estimate the parameters in the drift function. Consistency and asymptotic distribution theory for these estimates are established in various contexts. The finite …
Mixing Frequencies: Stock Returns As A Predictor Of Real Output Growth, Anthony S. Tay
Mixing Frequencies: Stock Returns As A Predictor Of Real Output Growth, Anthony S. Tay
Research Collection School Of Economics
We investigate two methods for using daily stock returns to forecast, and update forecasts of, quarterly real output growth. Both methods aggregate daily returns in some manner to form a single stock market variable. We consider (i) augmenting the quarterly AR(1) model for real output growth with daily returns using a nonparametric Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) setting, and (ii) augmenting the quarterly AR(1) model with the most recent r -day returns as an additional predictor. We find that our mixed frequency models perform well in forecasting real output growth.
Choice Of Currency By East Asia Bond Issuers, David Fernandez, Simon Klassen
Choice Of Currency By East Asia Bond Issuers, David Fernandez, Simon Klassen
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
In discussing bond markets in Asia, academics and policymakers typically begin by noting that the Asian crisis of 1997-98 in part resulted from the underdevelopment of the region’s domestic bond markets and the resultant currency and duration mismatches. When assessing the progress made in developing these markets in the post-crisis years, academics and policymakers usually observe that, while several domestic currency government bond markets have moved ahead, corporate bond markets have lagged (Asian Development Bank (2002), Reserve Bank of Australia (2003)). The policy conclusion is therefore often drawn: to prevent another Asian crisis, Asian bond markets must be further developed.
Lottery Rather Than Waiting-Line Auction, Winston T. H. Koh, Zhenlin Yang, Lijing Zhu
Lottery Rather Than Waiting-Line Auction, Winston T. H. Koh, Zhenlin Yang, Lijing Zhu
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper investigates the allocative efficiency of two non-price allocation mechanisms – the lottery (random allocation) and the waiting-line auction (queue system) – for the cases where consumers possess identical time costs (the homogeneous case), and where time costs are correlated with time valuations (the heterogeneous case). We show that the relative efficiency of the two mechanisms depends critically on a scarcity factor (measured by the ratio of the number of objects available for allocation over the number of participants) and on the shape of the distribution of valuations. We show that the lottery dominates the waiting-line auction for a …
What Matter For Child Development?, Fali Huang
What Matter For Child Development?, Fali Huang
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper estimates production functions of child cognitive and social development using a panel data of nine-year old children each with over two hundred home and school inputs as well as family background variables. A tree regression method is used to conduct estimation under various speci…cations. A small subset of inputs is found consistently important in explaining variances of child development results, including the number of books a child has at various ages and how often a mother reads to child by age …ve, while the e¤ects of race and maternal employment are negligible when detailed inputs are controlled.
On Joint Modelling And Testing For Local And Global Spatial Externalities, Zhenlin Yang
On Joint Modelling And Testing For Local And Global Spatial Externalities, Zhenlin Yang
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper concerns the joint modeling, estimation and testing for local and global spatial externalities. Spatial externalities have become in recent years a standard notion of economic research activities in relation to social interactions, spatial spillovers and dependence, etc., and have received an increasing attention by econometricians and applied researchers. While conceptually the principle underlying the spatial dependence is straightforward, the precise way in which this dependence should be included in a regression model is complex. Following the taxonomy of Anselin (2003, International Regional Science Review 26, 153-166), a general model is proposed, which takes into account jointly local and …
Novartis's Alex Gorsky: Ensuring That Patients Get Access To The Medicines They Need, Knowledge@Smu
Novartis's Alex Gorsky: Ensuring That Patients Get Access To The Medicines They Need, Knowledge@Smu
Knowledge@SMU
Alex Gorsky was named head of Pharma North America and CEO of Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corp., the U.S. affiliate of Swiss drug giant Novartis, in the fall of 2005. Since joining the company in 2004 as chief operating officer and head of general medicines, Gorsky has overseen the continued growth of Novartis's industry-leading cardiovascular franchise, notably the blockbuster drugs Diovan and Lotrel. The company sells a variety of products, including those that treat endocrine and respiratory disease, gastrointestinal illnesses, cancer and blood disorders and bone and joint conditions, among others. Prior to joining Novartis, Gorsky was company group chairman for Johnson …
Performance, Growth And Earnings Management, Chi Wen Jevons Lee, Laura Yue Li, Heng Yue
Performance, Growth And Earnings Management, Chi Wen Jevons Lee, Laura Yue Li, Heng Yue
Research Collection School Of Accountancy
We study the relationship between the amount of managed earnings and firms' earnings performance and expected growth in a reporting model, where managers manipulate earnings to influence the valuation of firms' equity while bearing a cost that is increasing and convex in the amount of managed earnings. In the unique revealing equilibrium to the model, firms with higher performance and growth over-report earnings by a larger amount because price responsiveness increases with earnings performance and growth. And earnings quality, defined as the proportion of true economic earnings in total reported earnings, increases with earnings performance but decreases with earnings growth. …
Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models: Bayesian Estimation And Model Comparison, Jun Yu, Renate Meyer
Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models: Bayesian Estimation And Model Comparison, Jun Yu, Renate Meyer
Research Collection School Of Economics
In this paper we show that fully likelihood-based estimation and comparison of multivariate stochastic volatility (SV) models can be easily performed via a freely available Bayesian software called WinBUGS. Moreover, we introduce to the literature several new specifications that are natural extensions to certain existing models, one of which allows for time-varying correlation coefficients. Ideas are illustrated by fitting, to a bivariate time series data of weekly exchange rates, nine multivariate SV models, including the specifications with Granger causality in volatility, time-varying correlations, heavy-tailed error distributions, additive factor structure, and multiplicative factor structure. Empirical results suggest that the best specifications …
Set Inference For Semiparametric Discrete Games, Kyoo-Il Kim
Set Inference For Semiparametric Discrete Games, Kyoo-Il Kim
Research Collection School Of Economics
We consider estimation and inference of parameters in discrete games allowing for multiple equilibria, without using an equilibrium selection rule. We do a set inference while a game model can contain infinite dimensional parameters. Examples can include signaling games with discrete types where the type distribution is nonparametrically specified and entry-exit games with partially linear payoffs functions. A consistent set estimator and a confidence interval of a function of parameters are provided in this paper. We note that achieving a consistent point estimation often requires an information reduction. Due to this less use of information, we may end up a …
Higher Order Bias Correcting Moment Equation For M-Estimation And Its Higher Order Efficiency, Kyoo-Il Kim
Higher Order Bias Correcting Moment Equation For M-Estimation And Its Higher Order Efficiency, Kyoo-Il Kim
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper studies an alternative bias correction for the M-estimator, which is obtained by correcting the moment equation in the spirit of Firth (1993). In particular, this paper compares the stochastic expansions of the analytically bias-corrected estimator and the alternative estimator and finds that the third-order stochastic expansions of these two estimators are identical. This implies that at least in terms of the third order stochastic expansion, we cannot improve on the simple one-step bias correction by using the bias correction of moment equations. Though the result in this paper is for a fixed number of parameters, our intuition may …
Semiparametric Estimation Of Signaling Games, Kyoo-Il Kim
Semiparametric Estimation Of Signaling Games, Kyoo-Il Kim
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper studies an econometric modeling of a signaling game with two players where one player has one of two types. In particular, we develop an estimation strategy that identifies the payoffs structure and the distribution of types from data of observed actions. We can achieve uniqueness of equilibrium using a refinement, which enables us to identify the parameters of interest. In the game, we consider non-strategic public signals about the types. Because the mixing distribution of these signals is nonparametrically specified, we propose to estimate the model using a sieve conditional MLE. We achieve the consistency and the asymptotic …
Uniform Convergence Rate Of The Snp Density Estimator And Testing For Similarity Of Two Unknown Densities, Kyoo-Il Kim
Uniform Convergence Rate Of The Snp Density Estimator And Testing For Similarity Of Two Unknown Densities, Kyoo-Il Kim
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper studies the uniform convergence rate of the turncated SNP (semi-nonparametric) density estimator. Using the uniform convergence rate result we obtain, we propose a test statistic testing the equivalence of two unknown densities where two densities are estimated using the SNP estimator and supports of densities are possibly unbounded.
On The Magnet Effect Of Foreign Direct Investment, Pao Li Chang, Chia-Hui Lu
On The Magnet Effect Of Foreign Direct Investment, Pao Li Chang, Chia-Hui Lu
Research Collection School Of Economics
We extend Antras and Helpman (2004) on firm heterogeneity and organizational choice to a dynamic setting with FDI uncertainty, in which the probability of investment failure decreases with the host country's infrastructure level and increases with the technological complexity facing each firm. Moreover, it decreases over time as the accumulated mass of firms succeeding in FDI increases. We show that a minimum level of infrastructure is required to trigger a first wave of industrial migration. We then formalize the often noted "magnet effect" of FDI - the first wave of industrial migration generates positive externality (information spillover) for subsequent investors, …
Characterizing Exchange Rate Policy In East Asia: A Reconsideration, Hwee Kwan Chow
Characterizing Exchange Rate Policy In East Asia: A Reconsideration, Hwee Kwan Chow
Research Collection School Of Economics
Frankel and Wei [Frankel, J. A., & Wei, S.-J. (1994). Yen bloc or dollar bloc: Exchange rate policies of the East Asian economies. In I. Takatoshi & A. Krueger (Eds.), Macroeconomic linkages. Chicago: University of Chicago Press] developed and popularized a method for uncovering the implicit weights assigned to major international currencies constituting a currency basket. We extend the methodology in two dimensions: include regional competitive pressure and employ a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to overcome simultaneity bias. With these modifications, we confirm the prominent role of the US dollar in the exchange rate policy of East Asian economies beyond …
The Coevolution Of Economic And Political Development, Fali Huang
The Coevolution Of Economic And Political Development, Fali Huang
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper establishes a simple model of long run economic and political development, which is driven by the inherent technical features of different production factors, and political conflicts among factor owners on how to divide the outputs. The main capital form in economy evolves from land to physical capital and then to human capital, which enables their respective owners (landlords, capitalists, and workers) to gain political powers in the same sequence, shaping the political development path from monarchy to elite ruling and finally to full suffrage. When it is too costly for any group of factor owners to repress others, …
Spectral Density Estimation And Robust Hypothesis Testing Using Steep Origin Kernels Without Truncation, Peter C.B Philips, Yixiao Sun, Sainan Jin
Spectral Density Estimation And Robust Hypothesis Testing Using Steep Origin Kernels Without Truncation, Peter C.B Philips, Yixiao Sun, Sainan Jin
Research Collection School Of Economics
A new class of kernels for long-run variance and spectral density estimation is developed by exponentiating traditional quadratic kernels. Depending on whether the exponent parameter is allowed to grow with the sample size, we establish different asymptotic approximations to the sampling distribution of the proposed estimators. When the exponent is passed to infinity with the sample size, the new estimator is consistent and shown to be asymptotically normal. When the exponent is fixed, the new estimator is inconsistent and has a nonstandard limiting distribution. It is shown via Monte Carlo experiments that, when the chosen exponent is small in practical …
Protection For Sale Under Monopolistic Competition: An Empirical Investigation, Pao Li Chang, Myoung-Jae Lee
Protection For Sale Under Monopolistic Competition: An Empirical Investigation, Pao Li Chang, Myoung-Jae Lee
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper proposes a general empirical framework to estimate the protection-for-sale model, where the protection regime shifts according to a sector's market structure (perfectly or monopolistically competitive). We base the protection structure on Grossman and Helpman (1994) for the subset of perfectly competitive sectors and on Chang (2005) for the subset of monopolistically competitive sectors. The two protection regimes are simultaneously estimated with joint constraints. The results of the J-test consistently reject the homogeneous (perfect competition) protection-for-sale model often adopted in previous literature and suggest a direction of improvement toward the proposed heterogeneous protection structure model.
The Political Economy Of Poverty Reduction: A Comparative Study Of Two Chinese Provinces, John A. Donaldson
The Political Economy Of Poverty Reduction: A Comparative Study Of Two Chinese Provinces, John A. Donaldson
Research Collection School of Social Sciences
Is growth good for the poor? In theory, yes. As one influential report on China’s “War on Poverty” suggested, ”Obviously robust economic growth helps reduce poverty, as long as the gains are reasonably distributed” (Rozelle et al. 2000). In practice as well, growth is often a crucial ingredient in the poverty reduction recipe. While this relationship is well founded, important exceptions present themselves – some areas grow, but poverty persists; the economies of other areas remain apparently stagnant, yet poverty diminishes. These exceptions, if studied, will not only illuminate further the causal relationship between these two concepts, but also provide …
Can't Afford To See A Doctor? The Difficulties Of Reforming China's Healthcare System, Knowledge@Smu
Can't Afford To See A Doctor? The Difficulties Of Reforming China's Healthcare System, Knowledge@Smu
Knowledge@SMU
An article co-published on May 22 by China Social Science Literature Publishing house and China Medical Industry Magazine, entitled “Healthcare Greenpaper,” reviews a series of problems associated with China’s healthcare reform over the past 10 years. Of the five biggest problems identified by the paper, the worst one is prohibitively expensive treatment. To examine this issue, Knowledge@Wharton interviewed a variety of experts and officials on the state of health care in China and the changing relationships between hospitals and patients.
Weak Monotonicity Characterizes Deterministic Dominant-Strategy Implementation, Sushil Bikhchandani, Shurojit Chatterji, Ron Lavi, Ahuva Mu'alem, Noam Nisan, Arunava Sen
Weak Monotonicity Characterizes Deterministic Dominant-Strategy Implementation, Sushil Bikhchandani, Shurojit Chatterji, Ron Lavi, Ahuva Mu'alem, Noam Nisan, Arunava Sen
Research Collection School Of Economics
We characterize dominant-strategy incentive compatibility with multidimensional types. A deterministic social choice function is dominant-strategy incentive compatible if and only if it is weakly monotone (W-Mon). The W-Mon requirement is the following: If changing one agent's type (while keeping the types of other agents fixed) changes the outcome under the social choice function, then the resulting difference in utilities of the new and original outcomes evaluated at the new type of this agent must be no less than this difference in utilities evaluated at the original type of this agent.
A Modified Family Of Power Transformations, Zhenlin Yang
A Modified Family Of Power Transformations, Zhenlin Yang
Research Collection School Of Economics
A modified family of power transformation, called the dual power transformation, is proposed. The new transformation is shown to possess properties similar to those of the well-known Box-Cox power transformation, but overcomes the long-standing truncation problem of the latter. It generates a rich family of distributions that is seen to be very useful in modeling and analysis of durations and event-times.
Exchange-Rate Systems And Interest-Rate Behaviour: The Experience Of Hong Kong And Singapore, Yiu Kuen Tse, Paul S. L. Yip
Exchange-Rate Systems And Interest-Rate Behaviour: The Experience Of Hong Kong And Singapore, Yiu Kuen Tse, Paul S. L. Yip
Research Collection School Of Economics
The Currency Board System in Hong Kong and the monitoring band system in Singapore are important benchmarks for two different exchange-rate systems. In this paper we consider the implications of the two exchange-rate systems on the interest-rate behaviour of the two economies. We examine the domestic–US interest differentials under the two exchange-rate regimes during the Asian Financial Crisis as well as the pre-and post-crisis periods. Using a bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model, we also investigate whether there is any change in the correlation between the domestic and US interest rates due to the Asian Financial Crisis.
Innovation, Imitation And Entrepreneurship, Kong Weng Ho, Grace Yong
Innovation, Imitation And Entrepreneurship, Kong Weng Ho, Grace Yong
Research Collection School Of Economics
No abstract provided.
Intergeneration Educational Mobility In Singapore: An Empirical Study, Kong Weng Ho, Regina Ng
Intergeneration Educational Mobility In Singapore: An Empirical Study, Kong Weng Ho, Regina Ng
Research Collection School Of Economics
No abstract provided.