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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences

Bubbly Booms And Welfare, Feng Dong, Yang Jiao, Haoning Sun Jul 2024

Bubbly Booms And Welfare, Feng Dong, Yang Jiao, Haoning Sun

Research Collection School Of Economics

We show the competing effects of a housing bubble on the real economy by developing a multi-sector dynamic model with housing production. On the one hand, firms can sell or collateralize their housing, so a housing bubble helps firms obtain credit to finance their investment and expand production. On the other hand, a boom in the housing sector crowds out labor in the non-housing sector. We show that housing booms can reduce social welfare both in the steady state and in the transitional dynamics only when the production externalities in the non-housing sector are sufficiently large. We quantitatively evaluate our …


Cross-Exchange Crypto Risk: A High-Frequency Dynamic Network Perspective, Yifu Wang, Wanbo Lu, Min-Bin Liu, Rui Ren, Wolfgang Karl Hardle Jul 2024

Cross-Exchange Crypto Risk: A High-Frequency Dynamic Network Perspective, Yifu Wang, Wanbo Lu, Min-Bin Liu, Rui Ren, Wolfgang Karl Hardle

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

Cross-exchange crypto trading presents inherent risks, particularly for centralized exchanges. Investors observe exacerbating crypto volatility and counterparty risk and would like to quantify these elements of crypto trades. The multiple exchanges require a multivariate view on the structures of risk spillover across exchanges. Here, a Multivariate Heterogeneous AutoRegression (MHAR) model is designed and analyzed, accommodating the stylized facts of crypto markets, including 24/7 trading and the long-memory effect on return variations. The proposed MHAR approach clearly reveals the intensity of interconnectedness among exchanges during extreme events, e.g., the Bitcoin market. Additionally, one observes extremely volatile eigenvector centralities of Futures Exchange …


Allocating Vehicle Registration Permits, Massimiliano Landi, Domenico Menicucci May 2024

Allocating Vehicle Registration Permits, Massimiliano Landi, Domenico Menicucci

Research Collection School Of Economics

We compare social welfare, consumer surplus and profits in two different institutional settings in which an item whose quantity is fixed and controlled (vehicle registration permit) is allocated to the buyers of a complementary good (car). In the first setting, which resembles the way in which vehicle registration permits are allocated in Singapore, the central planner runs a uniform price auction for permits in which the consumers who bid the highest receive the permits and pay the highest losing bid. Then each winning consumer purchases a car from a seller. In the alternative setting, the central planner first allocates the …


Green Transition And Financial Stability: The Role Of Green Monetary And Macroprudential Policies And Vouchers, Ying Tung Chan, Maria Teresa Punzi, Hong Zhao Apr 2024

Green Transition And Financial Stability: The Role Of Green Monetary And Macroprudential Policies And Vouchers, Ying Tung Chan, Maria Teresa Punzi, Hong Zhao

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

This paper analyzes a mix of alternative policies in supporting the green transition and the phase-out of fossil fuels, without compromising financial stability. An environmental dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (E-DSGE) model with two sectors (green and brown) and endogenous default is developed to assess potential climate-induced financial stability threats that can be mainly generated through physical and transition risks mechanism. Those risks are evaluated through a compound capital depreciation shock and a carbon tax shock. The paper offers several findings. First of all, a too stringent carbon tax would increase the medium-term default rate in both sectors, harming financial stability …


Wild Bootstrap Inference For Instrumental Variables Regressions With Weak And Few Clusters, Wenjie Wang, Yichong Zhang Apr 2024

Wild Bootstrap Inference For Instrumental Variables Regressions With Weak And Few Clusters, Wenjie Wang, Yichong Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We study the wild bootstrap inference for instrumental variable regressions under an alternative asymptotic framework that the number of independent clusters is fixed, the size of each cluster diverges to infinity, and the within cluster dependence is sufficiently weak. We first show that the wild bootstrap Wald test controls size asymptotically up to a small error as long as the parameters of endogenous variables are strongly identified in at least one of the clusters. Second, we establish the conditions for the bootstrap tests to have power against local alternatives. We further develop a wild bootstrap Anderson–Rubin test for the full-vector …


Housing Markets Since Shapley And Scarf, Mustafa Oguz Afacan, Gaoji Hu, Jiangtao Li Apr 2024

Housing Markets Since Shapley And Scarf, Mustafa Oguz Afacan, Gaoji Hu, Jiangtao Li

Research Collection School Of Economics

Shapley and Scarf (1974) appeared in the first issue of the Journal of Mathematical Economics, and is one of the journal’s most impactful publications. As we approach the remarkable milestone of the journal’s 50th anniversary (1974–2024), this article serves as a commemorative exploration of Shapley and Scarf (1974) and the extensive body of literature that follows it.


Optimal Inference For Spot Regressions, Tim Bollerslev, Jia Li, Yuexuan Ren Mar 2024

Optimal Inference For Spot Regressions, Tim Bollerslev, Jia Li, Yuexuan Ren

Research Collection School Of Economics

Betas from return regressions are commonly used to measure systematic financial market risks. "Good" beta measurements are essential for a range of empirical inquiries in finance and macroeconomics. We introduce a novel econometric framework for the nonparametric estimation of time-varying betas with high-frequency data. The "local Gaussian" property of the generic continuous-time benchmark model enables optimal "finite-sample" inference in a well-defined sense. It also affords more reliable inference in empirically realistic settings compared to conventional large-sample approaches. Two applications pertaining to the tracking performance of leveraged ETFs and an intraday event study illustrate the practical usefulness of the new procedures.


The Influence Of Societal Nationalist Sentiment On Trade Flows, Douglas Dow, Ilya Cuypers Mar 2024

The Influence Of Societal Nationalist Sentiment On Trade Flows, Douglas Dow, Ilya Cuypers

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In recent years, the world has witnessed a backlash against globalization and a rise in populist and nationalist movements around the world. However, there appears to be little empirical research concerning how these movements, and especially nationalist sentiment, actually influence trade. Therefore, we explore how and when nationalist sentiment within a country influences trade. Our results indicate that the effect of nationalist sentiment on imports is mediated by lower participation in free trade agreements (FTAs) but not via tariffs. Furthermore, we are unable to confirm support for a direct effect of nationalist sentiment on imports, as predicted by the consumer …


Bootstrap Inference For Quantile Treatment Effects In Randomized Experiments With Matched Pairs, Liang Jiang, Xiaobin Liu, Peter C B Phillips, Yichong Zhang Mar 2024

Bootstrap Inference For Quantile Treatment Effects In Randomized Experiments With Matched Pairs, Liang Jiang, Xiaobin Liu, Peter C B Phillips, Yichong Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper examines methods of inference concerning quantile treatment effects (QTEs) in randomized experiments with matched-pairs designs (MPDs). Standard multiplier bootstrap inference fails to capture the negative dependence of observations within each pair and is therefore conservative. Analytical inference involves estimating multiple functional quantities that require several tuning parameters. Instead, this paper proposes two bootstrap methods that can consistently approximate the limit distribution of the original QTE estimator and lessen the burden of tuning parameter choice. Most especially, the inverse propensity score weighted multiplier bootstrap can be implemented without knowledge of pair identities.


Migration And Resource Misallocation In China, Xiaolu Li, Lin Ma, Yang Tang Mar 2024

Migration And Resource Misallocation In China, Xiaolu Li, Lin Ma, Yang Tang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We structurally estimate the firm-level frictions across prefectures in China and quantify their aggregate and distributional implications. Based on a general equilibrium model with input and output distortions and migration, we show that the firm-level frictions are less dispersed and less correlated with firm productivity in richer prefectures. Counterfactual exercises show that reducing the within-prefecture misallocation increases aggregate welfare, discourages migration toward large prefectures, and reduces spatial inequality. Moreover, internal migration alleviates micro-frictions’ impacts on aggregate welfare and worsens their effects on spatial inequality.


The Distributional Impacts Of Transportation Networks In China, Lin Ma, Yang Tang Mar 2024

The Distributional Impacts Of Transportation Networks In China, Lin Ma, Yang Tang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We document that the quality of roads and railroads vary substantially over time and space in China, and neglecting these variations biases the distributional impacts of transportation networks. To account for quality differences, we construct a new panel dataset and approximate quality using the design speed of roads and railroads that varies by vintage, class, and terrain at the pixel level. We then build a dynamic spatial general equilibrium model for multiple modes, transportation routes, and forward-looking migration decisions. Our findings demonstrate that disregarding quality differences leads to a median bias of approximately 31% in estimating real wage growth rates …


Robust Inference On Correlation Under General Heterogeneity, Liudas Giraitis, Yuefei Li, Peter C. B. Phillips Mar 2024

Robust Inference On Correlation Under General Heterogeneity, Liudas Giraitis, Yuefei Li, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

Considerable evidence in past research shows size distortion in standard tests for zero autocorrelation or zero cross-correlation when time series are not independent identically distributed random variables, pointing to the need for more robust procedures. Recent tests for serial correlation and cross-correlation in Dalla, Giraitis, and Phillips (2022) provide a more robust approach, allowing for heteroskedasticity and dependence in uncorrelated data under restrictions that require a smooth, slowly-evolving deterministic heteroskedasticity process. The present work removes those restrictions and validates the robust testing methodology for a wider class of innovations and regression residuals allowing for heteroscedastic uncorrelated and non-stationary data settings. …


The Interplay Of Interdependence And Correlation In Bilateral Trade, Takashi Kunimoto, Cuiling Zhang Mar 2024

The Interplay Of Interdependence And Correlation In Bilateral Trade, Takashi Kunimoto, Cuiling Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Crémer and McLean (1988) show that the seller can extract full surplus almost always by an incentive compatible, individually rational mechanism in a single-unit auction model with a finite type space in which agents' beliefs are correlated and their valuations can be interdependent. We first show that this paradoxically positive result can be extended to a model of bilateral trades. To make it more realistic, we investigate when ex-post efficiency and ex-post budget balance in bilateral trades can also be achieved by an incentive compatible, individually rational mechanism. We identify a necessary condition for the existence of such mechanisms and …


Robust Implementation In Rationalizable Strategies In General Mechanisms, Takashi Kunimoto, Rene Saran Mar 2024

Robust Implementation In Rationalizable Strategies In General Mechanisms, Takashi Kunimoto, Rene Saran

Research Collection School Of Economics

A social choice function (SCF) is robustly implementable in rationalizable strate-gies if every rationalizable strategy profile on every type space results in outcomes consistent with it. First, we establish an equivalence between robust implementation in rationalizable strategies and “weak rationalizable implementation”. Second, using the equivalence result, we identify weak robust monotonicity as a necessary and al-most sufficient condition for robust implementation in rationalizable strategies. This exhibits a contrast with robust implementation in interim equilibria, i.e., every equilib-rium on every type space achieves outcomes consistent with the SCF. Bergemann and Morris (2011) show that strict robust monotonicity is a necessary and …


Panel Data Models With Time-Varying Latent Group Structures, Yiren Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Liangjun Su Mar 2024

Panel Data Models With Time-Varying Latent Group Structures, Yiren Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Liangjun Su

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper considers a linear panel model with interactive fixed effects and unobserved individual and time heterogeneities that are captured by some latent group structures and an unknown structural break, respectively. To enhance realism, the model may have different numbers of groups and/or different group memberships before and after the break. With preliminary nuclear norm regularized estimation followed by row- and column-wise linear regressions, we estimate the break point based on the idea of binary segmentation and the latent group structures together with the number of groups before and after the break by sequential testing K-means algorithm simultaneously. It is …


Interim Regret Minimization, Wei He, Jiangtao Li, Kexin Wang Mar 2024

Interim Regret Minimization, Wei He, Jiangtao Li, Kexin Wang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We consider a robust version of monopoly pricing when the seller only knows the bound on valuations and the mean of the distribution of the buyer’s value. The seller seeks to minimize interim regret, the forgone expected revenue due to not knowing the distribution of the buyer’s value. The optimal pricing policy randomizes over a range of prices; the support of the pricing policy is bounded away from zero.


Who Watched Pre/Post-Lecture Tutorial Videos? Does Flipped Learning Help Beginners In Economics?, Bei Hong Mar 2024

Who Watched Pre/Post-Lecture Tutorial Videos? Does Flipped Learning Help Beginners In Economics?, Bei Hong

Research Collection School Of Economics

The modern-day classroom is characterized by academic diversity, with students from varied backgrounds and with different levels of prior knowledge. To cater to the diverse abilities of students, this paper explored the use of flipped learning as a teaching approach in an introductory economics course. We investigated the effectiveness of 40 pre-lecture videos covering basic concepts and 27 post-lecture tutorial videos focusing on practice in improving students' exam outcomes, especially for beginners in economics who may require more support from instructors than other students. We collected data about video engagement and students' grades in progress assessments. Surveys were conducted to …


(Trade) War And Peace: How To Impose International Trade Sanctions, Gustavo De Souza, Naiyuan Hu, Haishi Li, Yuan Mei Mar 2024

(Trade) War And Peace: How To Impose International Trade Sanctions, Gustavo De Souza, Naiyuan Hu, Haishi Li, Yuan Mei

Research Collection School Of Economics

What is the most cost-efficient way to impose trade sanctions against Russia? We build a quantitative model of international trade with input–output connections. Sanctioning countries choose import tariffs to simultaneously maximize their income and minimize Russia's income, with different weights placed on these objectives. We find, first, that for countries with low willingness to pay for sanctions against Russia, the most cost-efficient sanction is an approximately 20% tariff on all Russian products. Second, if countries are willing to pay at least US$0.70 for each US$1 drop in Russian welfare, an embargo on Russia's mining and energy products is the most …


Compellingness In Nash Implementation, Shurojit Chatterji, Takashi Kunimoto, Paulo Daniel Salles Ramos Feb 2024

Compellingness In Nash Implementation, Shurojit Chatterji, Takashi Kunimoto, Paulo Daniel Salles Ramos

Research Collection School Of Economics

A social choice function (SCF) is said to be Nash implementable if there exists a mechanism in which every Nash equilibrium outcome coincides with that specified by the SCF. The main objective of this paper is to assess the impact of considering mixed strategy equilibria in Nash implementation. To do this, we focus on environments with two agents and restrict attention to finite mechanisms. We call a mixed strategy equilibrium “compelling” if its outcome Pareto dominates any pure strategy equilibrium outcome. We show that if the finite environment and the SCF to be implemented jointly satisfy what we call Condition …


Local Institutional Investors And Corporate Monitoring: Evidence From Cross-Listed Korean Stocks In The Us Market, Changhwan Choi, Chune Young Chung, Jun Myung Song Jan 2024

Local Institutional Investors And Corporate Monitoring: Evidence From Cross-Listed Korean Stocks In The Us Market, Changhwan Choi, Chune Young Chung, Jun Myung Song

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

Using Korean firms that are cross-listed in the US market, this paper investigates whether there are standalone effects of geographic and market proximity of institutional investors on monitoring performance. We find that Korean institutional ownership is negatively associated with earnings management while the US institutional ownership has no impact on earnings management. This suggests that there is the geographic proximity advantage over the market proximity advantage in the emerging markets. Furthermore, we also show that the impact of geographic proximity is stronger for firms with high informational opacity


Geographic Links And Predictable Returns, Zuben Jin, Frank Weikai Li Jan 2024

Geographic Links And Predictable Returns, Zuben Jin, Frank Weikai Li

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Using establishment-level data of U.S. public firms, we construct a novel measure of geographic linkage between firms. We show that the returns of geography-linked firms have strong predictive power for focal firm returns and fundamentals. This effect is distinct from other cross-firm return predictability and is not easily attributable to risk-based explanations. It is more pronounced for focal firms that receive lower investor attention, are more costly to arbitrage, and during high sentiment periods. The cross-firm information spillovers and return predictability are also stronger for geographic peers with economic linkages and with positive information. Our results are broadly consistent with …


Equal Predictive Ability Tests Based On Panel Data With Applications To Oecd And Imf Forecasts, Oguzhan Akgun, Alain Pirotte, Giovanni Urga, Zhenlin Yang Jan 2024

Equal Predictive Ability Tests Based On Panel Data With Applications To Oecd And Imf Forecasts, Oguzhan Akgun, Alain Pirotte, Giovanni Urga, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose two types of equal predictive ability (EPA) tests with panels to compare the predictions made by two forecasters. The first type, S-statistics, focuses on the overall EPA hypothesis, which states that the EPA holds, on average, over all panel units and over time. The second type, C-statistics, focuses on the clustered EPA hypothesis where the EPA holds jointly for a fixed number of clusters of panel units. The asymptotic properties of the proposed tests are evaluated under weak and strong cross-sectional dependence. An extensive Monte Carlo simulation shows that the proposed tests have very good finite sample properties, …


Optimal Nonparametric Range-Based Volatility Estimation, Tim Bollerslev, Jia Li, Qiyuan Li Jan 2024

Optimal Nonparametric Range-Based Volatility Estimation, Tim Bollerslev, Jia Li, Qiyuan Li

Research Collection School Of Economics

We present a general framework for optimal nonparametric spot volatility estimation based on intraday range data, comprised of the first, highest, lowest, and last price over a given time-interval. We rely on a decision-theoretic approach together with a coupling-type argument to directly tailor the form of the nonparametric estimator to the specific volatility measure of interest and relevant loss function. The resulting new optimal estimators offer substantial efficiency gains compared to existing commonly used range-based procedures.


Robust Testing For Explosive Behavior With Strongly Dependent Errors, Yui Lim Lui, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu Jan 2024

Robust Testing For Explosive Behavior With Strongly Dependent Errors, Yui Lim Lui, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

A heteroskedasticity-autocorrelation robust (HAR) test statistic is proposed to test for the presence of explosive roots in financial or real asset prices when the equation errors are strongly dependent. Limit theory for the test statistic is developed and extended to heteroskedastic models. The new test has stable size properties unlike conventional test statistics that typically lead to size distortion and inconsistency in the presence of strongly dependent equation errors. The new procedure can be used to consistently time-stamp the origination and termination of an explosive episode under similar conditions of long memory errors. Simulations are conducted to assess the finite …


Childlessness And Sibling Positioning In Upward Intergenerational Support: Insights From Singapore, Dahye Kim, Christine Ho, Bussarawan Teerawichitchainan Jan 2024

Childlessness And Sibling Positioning In Upward Intergenerational Support: Insights From Singapore, Dahye Kim, Christine Ho, Bussarawan Teerawichitchainan

Research Collection School Of Economics

Objective:This brief report aims to explore the role of child-lessness and its interaction with sibling positioning (i.e., birthorder and gender) in upward intergenerational supportwithin the context of Asian familial and patrilineal values.Background:Despite the increasing rates of childlessnessin Asia, little is known about how childless individualsdeviate from or adhere to the patrilineal gendered prac-tices of supporting their older parents. Singapore, a rapidlyaging nation that emphasises Confucian familism valuesand patrilineal practices in guiding its welfare policies, pro-vides an ideal setting for this research investigation.\Method:We analysed a sample of 475 Singaporeans aged50 and above with at least one living parent from a recentnationwide …


High-Dimensional Iv Cointegration Estimation And Inference, Peter C. B. Phillips, Igor L. Kheifets Jan 2024

High-Dimensional Iv Cointegration Estimation And Inference, Peter C. B. Phillips, Igor L. Kheifets

Research Collection School Of Economics

A semiparametric triangular systems approach shows how multicointegrating linkages occur naturally in an I(1) cointegrated regression model when the long run error variance matrix in the system is singular. Under such singularity, cointegrated I(1) systems embody a multicointegrated structure that makes them useful in many empirical settings. Earlier work shows that such systems may be analyzed and estimated without appealing to the associated I(2) system but with suboptimal convergence rates and potential asymptotic bias. The present paper develops a robust approach to estimation and inference of such systems using high dimensional IV methods that have appealing asymptotic properties like those …


A Conditional Linear Combination Test With Many Weak Instruments, Dennis Lim, Wenjie Wang, Yichong Zhang Jan 2024

A Conditional Linear Combination Test With Many Weak Instruments, Dennis Lim, Wenjie Wang, Yichong Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We consider a linear combination of jackknife Anderson-Rubin (AR) and orthogonalized Lagrangian multiplier (LM) tests for inference in IV regressions with many weak instruments and heteroskedasticity. We choose the weight in the linear combination based on a decision-theoretic rule that is adaptive to the identification strength. Under both weak and strong identifications, the proposed linear combination test controls asymptotic size and is admissible. Under strong identification, we further show that our linear combination test is the uniformly most powerful test against local alternatives among all tests that are constructed based on the jackknife AR and LM tests only and invariant …


Legal Risk And Insider Trading, Marcin Kacperczyk, Emiliano Sebastian Pagnotta Dec 2023

Legal Risk And Insider Trading, Marcin Kacperczyk, Emiliano Sebastian Pagnotta

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Do illegal insiders internalize legal risk? We address this question with hand-collected data from 530 SEC (the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission) investigations. Using two plausibly exogenous shocks to expected penalties, we show that insiders trade less aggressively and earlier and concentrate on tips of greater value when facing a higher risk. The results match the predictions of a model where an insider internalizes the impact of trades on prices and the likelihood of prosecution and anticipates penalties in proportion to trade profits. Our findings lend support to the effectiveness of U.S. regulations' deterrence and the long-standing hypothesis that insider …


China’S Changing Perspective On The Wto: From Aspiration, Assimilation To Alienation, Henry S. Gao Dec 2023

China’S Changing Perspective On The Wto: From Aspiration, Assimilation To Alienation, Henry S. Gao

Research Collection Yong Pung How School Of Law

Since its accession to the WTO twenty years ago, China’s image has shifted from a good student aspiring to assimilate itself into the multilateral trading system to one that is increasingly alienated from key WTO principles. How has China’s perspective on WTO been evolving? What are the reasons behind China’s changing perspective? This chapter addresses these questions from the Chinese perspective with a comprehensive analysis of the key moments in China’s first two decades in the WTO, followed by practical suggestions on how to engage China more constructively in the WTO and beyond.


Gender Divergence In Premarket Skill Acquisition And Wage Inequality, Sunha Myong Dec 2023

Gender Divergence In Premarket Skill Acquisition And Wage Inequality, Sunha Myong

Research Collection School Of Economics

I study the changes in premarket skills and the evolution of the wage distribution across two cohorts using the NLSY79 and NLSY97. To estimate the relative importance of changes in premarket skills and changes in skill prices in explaining the evolution of the wage distribution, I apply the DiNardo, Fortin, and Lemieux decomposition method (DiNardo et al. 1996). I find a substantial gender divergence in premarket skill acquisition and wage gain across the two cohorts. Women's wage gain associated with changes in premarket skills is greater than that of men's at all levels of the wage distribution. Changes in premarket …