Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Estimating Combined Effects Of Climate Change And Land Cover Change On Water Regulation Services Of Urban Wetlands In Valdivia, Chile, Jason Sauer, N. B. Grimm, Olga Barbosa, Elizabeth M. Cook, A. Mustafa, K. Kunkel, T. Mcphearson, A. Ballinger

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

The relationship between cities and wetland cover varies across the globe, with some cities converting wetlands to low‐ and high‐density urban cover and others preserving, conserving, or restoring wetlands, or constructing new ones. However, the scientific literature lacks studies relating changes in systemic flood risk in an urban stormwater management systems to changes in wetland cover. Furthermore, whether and how such relationships are affected by changing storm intensity under climate change is unknown. We present a case study on the effects of changes in urban wetland extent and storm intensity on flooding in an urban drainage system in Valdivia, Chile, …

Enhancing The Definitions Of Climate-Change Loss And Damage Based On Land Conversion In Florida, U.S.A., Elena A. Mikhailova, Zhenbang Hao, Hamdi A. Zurqani, Mark A. Schlautman, Gregory C. Post, George B. Shepherd, Sarah J. Kolarik

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

Loss and damage (L&D) from climate change result from past and current greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Current definitions of L&D exclude GHG emissions even though they represent L&D to human beings and the environment. This study’s objective was to identify and quantify the L&D from GHG emissions associated with land developments using the state of Florida (FL) in the United States of America (USA) as a case study. All land developments in FL caused various L&D (20,249.6 km2, midpoint 3.0 1011 of total soil carbon (TSC) losses with midpoint $50.3B (where B = billion = 109, USD) in social costs …

Climate Change Policies And Older Adults: An Analysis Of States’ Climate Adaptation Plans, Bryant Carlson, Jacklyn N. Kohon, Paula Carder, Dani Himes, Eiji Toda, Katsuya Tanaka

Institute on Aging Publications

Background and Objectives

As climate change drives more frequent and intense weather events, older adults face disproportionate impacts, including having the highest mortality rates from storms, wildfires, flooding, and heat waves. State governments are critical in deploying local resources to help address climate change impacts. This policy study analyzes states’ climate adaptation plans to assess the methods through which they address the impact of climate change on older adults.

Research Design and Methods

This study uses content analysis to analyze available climate change adaptation plans for all U.S. states for strategies designed to increase resilience of older adults to impacts …

Climate Change And Coastal Megacities: Adapting Through Mobility, Susan S. Ekoh, Lemir Teron, Idowu Ajibade

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

Climate change poses threats to individuals, communities, and cities globally. Global conversations and scholarly debates have explored ways people adapt to the impacts of climate change including through migration and relocation. This study uses Lagos, Nigeria as a case study to examine the relationship between flooding events, migration intentions as a preferred adaptation, and the destination choices for affected residents. The study draws on a mixed-methods approach which involved a survey of 352 residents and semi-structured interviews with 21 residents. We use a capability approach to analyze mobility decisions following major or repetitive flood events. We found that the majority …

Short Warm Distribution Tails Accelerate The Increase Of Humid-Heat Extremes Under Global Warming, Paul Loikith, Yianna Sotirios Bekris, J. D. Neelin

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

Humid-heat extremes threaten human health and are increasing in frequency with global warming, so elucidating factors affecting their rate of change is critical. We investigate the role of wet-bulb temperature (TW) frequency distribution tail shape on the rate of increase in extreme TW threshold exceedances under 2°C global warming. Results indicate that non-Gaussian TW distribution tails are common worldwide across extensive, spatially coherent regions. More rapid increases in the number of days exceeding the historical 95th percentile are projected in locations with shorter-than-Gaussian warm side tails. Asymmetry in the specific humidity distribution, one component of TW, is more closely correlated …

Understanding Perspectives On Climate Hazards, Water Management, And Adaptive Transformation In An Exurban Community, Alexander Ross, Heejun Chang, Alida Cantor

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

Climate change and exurban development pose challenges for water resources. This paper examines the perceptions and adaptive responses to those stressors among stakeholders engaging in exurban water management. Drawing on 42 interviews with planners, water managers, and local experts, we analyze perspectives on water-related hazards in the Hood River watershed, Oregon, and identify contrasting approaches to adaptation. Interview subjects identified climate-related hazards as most significant, with relatively less – although not insignificant – concern about development. Interviewees understood the role of the Watershed Group in four different ways: resistance to change, sustaining the present system, adapting to improve resilience, or …

Regional And Elevational Patterns Of Extreme Heat Stress Change In The Us, Colin Raymond, Duane E. Waliser, Bin Guan, Huikyo Lee, Paul Loikith, Elias C. Massoud, Agniv Sengupta, Deepti Singh, Adrienne Wootten

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

Increasing severity of extreme heat is a hallmark of climate change. Its impacts depend on temperature but also on moisture and solar radiation, each with distinct spatial patterns and vertical profiles. Here, we consider these variables' combined effect on extreme heat stress, as measured by the environmental stress index, using a suite of high-resolution climate simulations for historical (1980–2005) and future (2074–2099, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5)) periods. We find that observed extreme heat stress drops off nearly linearly with elevation above a coastal zone, at a rate that is larger in more humid regions. Future projections indicate dramatic relative …

Introduction: Climate Change And Planned Retreat, Idowu Jola Ajibade, A. R. Siders

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

Chapter 1.

This edited volume advances our understanding of climate relocation (or planned retreat), an emerging topic in the fields of climate adaptation and hazard risk, and provides a platform for alternative voices and views on the subject. As the effects of climate change become more severe and widespread, there is a growing conversation about when, where and how people will move. Climate relocation is a controversial adaptation strategy, yet the process can also offer opportunity and hope. This collection grapples with the environmental and social justice dimensions from multiple perspectives, with cases drawn from Africa, Asia, Australia, Oceania, South …

A Global Assessment Of Policy Tools To Support Climate Adaptation, Nicola Ulibarri, Idowu Ajibade, Eranga K. Galappaththi, Elphin T. Joe, Alexandra Lesnikowski, Katharine J. Mach, Issah J. Musah-Surugu, G. Nagle Alverio, Alcade C. Segnon, Multiple Additional Authors

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

Governments, businesses, and civil society organizations have diverse policy tools to incentivize adaptation. Policy tools can shape the type and extent of adaptation, and therefore, function either as barriers or enablers for reducing risk and vulnerability. Using data from a systematic review of academic literature on global adaptation responses to climate change (n = 1549 peer-reviewed articles), we categorize the types of policy tools used to shape climate adaptation. We apply qualitative and quantitative analyses to assess the contexts where particular tools are used, along with equity implications for groups targeted by the tools, and the tools’ relationships with transformational …

Global Evidence Of Constraints And Limits To Human Adaptation, Adelle Thomas, Emily Theokritoff, Alexandra Lesnikowski, Diana Reckien, Kripa Jagannathan, Roger Cremades, Donovan Campbell, Elphin Tom Joe, Asha Sitati, Idowu Ajibade, Multiple Additional Authors

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

Constraints and limits to adaptation are critical to understanding the extent to which human and natural systems can successfully adapt to climate change. We conduct a systematic review of 1,682 academic studies on human adaptation responses to identify patterns in constraints and limits to adaptation for different regions, sectors, hazards, adaptation response types, and actors. Using definitions of constraints and limits provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we find that most literature identifies constraints to adaptation but that there is limited literature focused on limits to adaptation. Central and South America and Small Islands generally report greater …

Climate Change Adaptation In Conflict‑Affected Countries: A Systematic Assessment Of Evidence, Asha Sitati, E. Joe, C. Grayson, C. Jaime, E. Gilmore, Eranga K. Galappaththi, A. Hudson, G. Nagle Alverio, Idowu Ajibade, Multiple Additional Authors

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

People affected by conflict are particularly vulnerable to climate shocks and climate change, yet little is known about climate change adaptation in fragile contexts. While climate events are one of the many contributing drivers of conflict, feedback from conflict increases vulnerability, thereby creating conditions for a vicious cycle of conflict. In this study, we carry out a systematic review of peer-reviewed literature, taking from the Global Adaptation Mapping Initiative (GAMI) dataset to documenting climate change adaptation occurring in 15 conflict-affected countries and compare the findings with records of climate adaptation finance flows and climate-related disasters in each country. Academic literature …

Relative Impacts Of Climate Change And Land Cover Change On Streamflow Using Swat In The Clackamas River Watershed, Usa, Junjie Chen, Heejun Chang

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

To understand the spatial–temporal pattern of climate and land cover (CLC) change effects on hydrology, we used three land cover change (LCC) coupled scenarios to estimate the changes in streamflow metrics in the Clackamas River Watershed in Oregon for the 2050s (2040–2069) and the 2080s (2070–2099). Coupled scenarios, which were split into individual and combined simulations such as climate change (CC), LCC, CLC change, and daily streamflow were simulated in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. The interannual variability of streamflow was higher in the lower urbanized area than the upper forested region. The watershed runoff was projected to be …

The Effects On Public Health Of Climate Change Adaptation Responses: A Systematic Review Of Evidence From Low- And Middle-Income Countries., Pauline F D Scheelbeek, Alan D. Dangour, Stephanie Jarmul, Grace Turner, Anne J. Sietsma, Jan C. Minx, Max Callaghan, Idowu Ajibade, Stephanie E. Austin, Robbert Biesbroek, Kathryn J. Bowen, Tara Chen, Katy Davis, Tim Ensor, James D. Ford, Eranga K. Galappaththi, Elphin T. Joe, Issah J. Musah-Surugu, Gabriela Nagle Alverio, Patricia Nayna Schwerdtle, Pratik Pokharel, Eunice A. Salubi, Giulia Scarpa, Alcade C. Segnon, Mariella Siña, Sienna Templeman, Jiren Xu, Carol Zavaleta-Cortijo, Lea Berrang-Ford

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

Climate change adaptation responses are being developed and delivered in many parts of the world in the absence of detailed knowledge of their effects on public health. Here we present the results of a systematic review of peer-reviewed literature reporting the effects on health of climate change adaptation responses in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The review used the 'Global Adaptation Mapping Initiative' database (comprising 1682 publications related to climate change adaptation responses) that was constructed through systematic literature searches in Scopus, Web of Science and Google Scholar (2013-2020). For this study, further screening was performed to identify studies from …

Accurate Simulation Of Both Sensitivity And Variability For Amazonian Photosynthesis: Is It Too Much To Ask?, Sarah M. Gallup, Ian T. Baker, John Luke Gallup, Natalia Restrepo-Coupe, Katherine D. Haynes, Nicholas M. Geyer, A. Scott Denning

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

Estimates of Amazon rainforest gross primary productivity (GPP) differ by a factor of 2 across a suite of three statistical and 18 process models. This wide spread contributes uncertainty to predictions of future climate. We compare the mean and variance of GPP from these models to that of GPP at six eddy covariance (EC) towers. Only one model's mean GPP across all sites falls within a 99% confidence interval for EC GPP, and only one model matches EC variance. The strength of model response to climate drivers is related to model ability to match the seasonal pattern of the EC …

Detecting Change In Precipitation Indices Using Observed (1977-2016) And Modeled Future Climate Data In Portland, Oregon, Usa, Alexis Kirsten Cooley, Heejun Chang

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

This study addresses how regional changes to precipitation may be identified by exploring the effect of temporal resolution on trend detection. Climate indices that summarize precipitation characteristics are used with Mann–Kendall monotonic testing to investigate precipitation trends in Portland, Oregon (OR) from 1977 to 2016. Observational records from rain gages are compared with downscaled global climate models to determine trends for the historic (1977–2005) and future (2006–2100) periods. Standard indices created by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) are deployed. ETCCDI indices that summarize conditions at the annual level are generated alongside a limited number of …

Introduction: Managed Retreat And Environmental Justice In A Changing Climate, A. R. Siders, Idowu Ajibade

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

In response to global climate change, managed retreat has emerged as a controversial adaptation strategy. The purposeful movement of people and communities away from hazardous places raises numerous social and environmental justice concerns that will become even more pressing as retreat occurs more frequently and at larger scales. This special issue contributes to an emerging body of literature on managed retreat by providing a range of perspectives and approaches to considering justice in managed retreat. The assembled papers represent diverse voices(including perspectives from individuals whose communities are currently relocating or considering relocation), disciplines (including oral histories, legal analyses, and cultural …

Does Gender Climate Influence Climate Change? The Multidimensionality Of Gender Equality And Its Countervailing Effects On The Carbon Intensity Of Well-Being, Christina Ergas, Patrick Trent Greiner, Julius Alexander Mcgee, Matthew Thomas Clement

Urban Studies and Planning Faculty Publications and Presentations

The carbon intensity of well-being (CIWB) (a ratio measuring the amount of CO₂ emitted per unit of life expectancy at birth) is an increasingly popular way to measure the ecological efficiency of nations. Although research demonstrates that economic development typically reduces this efficiency, little research has explored the extent to which social equality improves it. This study uses panel data for 70 nations between 1995 and 2013 to assess how various aspects of gender equality affect the ecological efficiency of nations. We estimate a series of Prais-Winsten regression models with panel-corrected standard errors (PCSE) to assess how increases in …