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Articles 1 - 3 of 3
Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
A Comparison Of Two Probability Encoding Methods: Fixed Probablity Vs. Fixed Variable Values, Ali E. Abbas, David V. Budescu, Hsiu-Ting Yu, Ryan Haggerty
A Comparison Of Two Probability Encoding Methods: Fixed Probablity Vs. Fixed Variable Values, Ali E. Abbas, David V. Budescu, Hsiu-Ting Yu, Ryan Haggerty
Psychology Faculty Publications
We present the results of an experiment comparing two popular methods for encoding probability distributions of continuous variables in decision analysis: eliciting values of a variable, X, through comparisons with a fixed probability wheel and eliciting the percentiles of the cumulative distribution, F(X), through comparisons with fixed values of the variable. We show slight but consistent superiority for the fixed variable method along several dimensions such as monotonicity, accuracy, and precision of the estimated fractiles. The fixed variable elicitation method was also slightly faster and preferred by most participants. We discuss the reasons for its superiority and conclude with several …
The Researcher As A Consumer Of Scientific Publication: How Do Name-Ordering Conventions Affect Inferences About Contribution Credits?, Boris Maciejovsky, David V. Budescu, Dan Ariely
The Researcher As A Consumer Of Scientific Publication: How Do Name-Ordering Conventions Affect Inferences About Contribution Credits?, Boris Maciejovsky, David V. Budescu, Dan Ariely
Psychology Faculty Publications
When researchers from different fields with different norms collaborate, the question arises of how name-ordering conventions are chosen and how they affect contribution credits. In this paper, we answer these questions by studying two disciplines that exemplify the two cornerstones of name-ordering conventions: lexicographical ordering (i.e., alphabetical ordering, endorsed in economics) and nonlexicographical ordering (i.e., ordering according to individual contributions, endorsed in psychology). Inferences about credits are unambiguous in the latter arrangement but imperfect in the former, because alphabetical listing can reflect ordering according to individual contributions by chance. We contrast the fields of economics and psychology with marketing, a …
Predicting World Cup Results: Do Goals Seem More Likely When They Pay Off?, Maya Bar-Hillel, David V. Budescu, Moty Amar
Predicting World Cup Results: Do Goals Seem More Likely When They Pay Off?, Maya Bar-Hillel, David V. Budescu, Moty Amar
Psychology Faculty Publications
Bar-Hillel and Budescu (1995) failed to find a desirability bias in probability estimation. The World Cup soccer tournament provided an opportunity to revisit the phenomenon in a context in which desirability biases are notoriously rampant. Participants estimated the probabilities of various teams’ winning their upcoming games. They were promised money if one team—randomly designated by the experimenter—won its upcoming game. Participants assigned a higher probability to a victory by their target team than did other participants, whose promised monetary reward was contingent on the victory of its opponent. Prima facie, this seems to be a desirability bias. However, in a …