Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

The Short-Term And Long-Term Relationship Between Public Sentiment And Insurgency Violence In 3 Southern Provinces Of Thailand, Domrongphol Sangmanee

CGU Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation is aimed to developing and improving the theory on the intrastate conflict and public sentiment as well as the conventional wisdom on the conflict study as well as developing new analytical framework for studying intrastate conflict and for informing policymakers to deliver or adjust for a better policy to cope with this problem. The empirical case study is an insurgency conflict in three Southern provinces of Thailand. The study employs multivariate time-series analysis, namely Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and empirical system dynamics analysis, namely Convergent CrossMapping (CCM). The results show that the …