Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Out-Of-Sample Predictability Of Bond Returns, Luiz Paulo Fichtner, Pedro Santa-Clara

Luiz Paulo Fichtner

We test the out-of-sample predictive power for one-year bond excess returns for a vari- ety of models that have been proposed in the literature. We find that these models perform well in sample, but have worse out-of-sample performance than the historical sample mean. We write the one-year excess return on a n-maturity bond at time t + 1 as the difference between n times the n-maturity bond yield at time t, and the sum of n − 1 times the (n − 1)-maturity bond yield at time t + 1 and the one-year bond yield at time t. Instead of …

¿Qué Es Transparencia?, Rafael Ramírez Villaescusa

Rafael Ramírez Villaescusa

El reciente proceso de consolidación democrática experimentado por México en la última década ha estado acompañado de una serie de políticas públicas encaminadas a fortalecer la participación ciudadana dentro de la toma de decisiones, así como la rendición de cuentas gubernamental. Una de esas acciones consistió en la promulgación, durante el sexenio del Presidente Fox, de la Ley Federal de Transparencia y Acceso a la Información Pública Gubernamental. Lo anterior, además, se inscribió en el contexto de un movimiento global a favor del derecho a saber, impulsado por diversas organizaciones internacionales. Parece ser que la transparencia llegó para quedarse, lo …

U.S. Monetary Policy: Qe3, Warren Coats

Warren Coats

The Federal Reserve’s latest round of quantitative easing (QE3) is not likely to help the U.S. economy’s recovery, which is already underway, but increases the risks of new asset bubbles and inflation.

Tensions In The Practice Of Action Research, Zuwati Hasim

zuwati hasim

No abstract provided.

Libro De Resúmenes Del Vii Congreso Internacional De Salud Mental, Norma A. Ruvalcaba R., José J. Gutiérrez R., Luis E. Baltazar A., Francisco J. Gutiérrez R., Guadalupe Covarrubias

Norma A. Ruvalcaba Romero

No abstract provided.

The Comparison Of Sex Role And Self-Differentiation In Women Married Students, Fatemeh Ashtarayeh, Pegah Goodarzy, Mohamad Ali Naji Nia

university of science & culture

This study compared the differentiation of women in different patterns of gender differentiation including androgen, men and women were conducted, and the importance of Sex role in achieving to high levels of Self-differentiation has been analyzed. In this study for the analysis of data has been used MANOVA multivariate analysis of variance tests and Scheffe post hoc test. Statistical Society included of all married woman students at public universities in Tehran. The study sample included 200 people who were selected through multi-stage cluster sampling among public universities in Tehran to respond to research questionnaires. Research tools include questionnaire, the sex …

Undiagnosed Disease, Especially Diabetes, Casts Doubt On Some Of Reported Health 'Advantage' Of Recent Mexican Immigrants, Silvia Barcellos, James Smith, Dana Goldman

Silvia Helena Barcellos

No abstract provided.

Waste Dynamics, Country Heterogeneity And The European Environmental Policy Effectiveness, Massimiliano Mazzanti

Massimiliano Mazzanti

No abstract provided.

An Optimal Strategy For Maximizing The Expected Real- Estate Selling Price: Accept Or Reject An Offer?, Martin Egozcue, Luis Fuentes García, Ricardas Zitikis

Martin Egozcue

Motivated by a real-life situation, we put forward a model and then derive an optimal strategy that maximizes the expected real-estate selling price when one of the only two remaining buyers has already made an offer but the other one is yet to make. Since the seller is not sure whether the other buyer would make a lower or higher offer, and given no recall, the seller needs a strategy to decide whether to accept or reject the first-come offer. The herein derived optimal seller's strategy, which maximizes the expected selling price, is illustrated under several scenarios, such as independent …

How Long Will It Take To Lift One Billion People Out Of Poverty?, Martin Ravallion

Martin Ravallion

Alternative scenarios are considered for reducing by one billion the number of people living below $1.25 a day. The low-case, “pessimistic,” path to that goal would see the developing world outside China returning to its slower pace of growth and poverty reduction of the 1980s and 1990s, though with China maintaining its progress. This path would take another 50 years or more to lift one billion people out of poverty. The more optimistic path would maintain the (impressive) progress against poverty since 2000, which would instead reach the target by around 2025-30. This scenario is consistent with both linear projections …

Persuasive Talk, Delegation, And Announcements, Paan Jindapon, Carlos Oyarzun

Paan Jindapon

We study persuasion in a modified Crawford-Sobel sender-receiver game in which the receiver makes a binary decision to accept or reject a good recommended by the sender. The good's quality and the sender's type (neutral or biased) are not observable to the receiver. These alterations yield a simple model and a unique truth-telling equilibrium in which neutral senders who observe different qualities fully separate. In such an equilibrium, neutral senders can only communicate low quality levels with precision and biased senders adopt a mixed strategy that can successfully persuade the receiver to accept the good most of the time. Several …

Replacing And Amending Constitutions: The Logic Of Constitutional Change In Latin America, Gabriel L. Negretto

Gabriel L. Negretto

Since 1978, all countries in Latin America have either replaced or amended their constitutions. What explains the choice between these two substantively different means of constitutional transformation? This article argues that constitutions are replaced when they fail to work as governance structures or when their design prevents competing political interests from accommodating to changing environments. According to this perspective, constitutions are likely to be replaced when constitutional crises are frequent, when political actors lack the capacity to implement changes by means of amendments or judicial interpretation, or when the constitutional regime has a power-concentrating design. It is further argued that …

Dinâmica Transfronteiriça No Arco Sul Brasileiro No Contexto Do Regime De Tributação Unificada, Prof. Dr. Eloi Martins Senhoras

Elói Martins Senhoras

No abstract provided.

Enfoques Teóricos De Las Reglas Por Defecto En El Derecho De Contratos: Complementariedades, Coincidencias Y Contradicciones, Daniel Monroy

Daniel A Monroy C

El artículo muestra una lectura crítica en lo que respecta a la noción, las funciones y el diseño de las reglas por defecto en el derecho de contratos a partir de tres enfoques teóricos a saber: la perspectiva jurídica tradicional; la visión del Análisis Económico del Derecho (AED) en su versión clásica y; el enfoque del denominado behavioral law and economics (BL&E). El documento destaca con particular atención que en lo correspondiente a la noción y las funciones de las reglas por defecto en el derecho de contratos, existe un alto nivel de coherencia entre la perspectiva jurídica tradicional por …

Los Toros Y Las Fiestas De Quito, Fernando Carrión Mena Arq.

Fernando Carrión Mena

Las corridas de Toros estuvieron vinculadas desde siempre a las fiestas de la fundación española de la ciudad de Quito; es más, son prácticamente las que le dieron la carta de nacimiento.

Esta alianza de las corridas de toros con la fundación española se produce hace aproximadamente sesenta años, cuando los visionarios empresarios españoles vinculados a la tauromaquia deciden exportar las corridas hacia América Latina en las fechas de octubre a diciembre, debido a que en la época invernal española no se las podía realizar, generando pérdidas de grandes oportunidades empresariales. Mientras en España las corridas se cierran en el …

Wie Verändert Das Internet Die Demokratie?, Ralf Lindner

Ralf Lindner

Obwohl seit dem Aufstieg des Internets zum Massenmedium in den 1990er Jahren Ernüchterung über die Demokratisierungswirkung der neuen Medien eingetreten ist, werden regelmäßig weitreichende Erwartungen über der politische Transformationspotenzial des Internets formuliert. So wird häufig postuliert, dass das Internet demokratische Politik über kurz oder lang fundamental verändern werde, indem universeller Informationszugang ermöglicht, etablierte Machtstrukturen unterminiert und politische Partizipation gesteigert werde. Der Beitrag erörtert zunächst die Hintergründe für populäre Fehlschlüsse, die die Debatte um elektronische Demokratie begleiten. Auf der Grundlage einer kritischen Reflexion mit den ideologisch-normativ imprägnierten Erwartungen an das Internet werden theoretisch wie empirisch robustere Überlegungen zum Beitrag der neuen …

After Privacy: The Rise Of Facebook, The Fall Of Wikileaks, And Singapore’S Personal Data Protection Act 2012, Simon Chesterman

Simon Chesterman

This article discusses the changing ways in which information is produced, stored, and shared — exemplified by the rise of social-networking sites like Facebook and controversies over the activities of WikiLeaks — and the implications for privacy and data protection. Legal protections of privacy have always been reactive, but the coherence of any legal regime has also been undermined by the lack of a strong theory of what privacy is. There is more promise in the narrower field of data protection. Singapore, which does not recognise a right to privacy, has positioned itself as an e-commerce hub but had no …

Ciudades Malas, Ciudades Falsas, Ciudades Feas, Jaime F. Erazo Espinosa Arq.

Jaime F. Erazo Espinosa

Afuera de este mundo, en otro mundo, donde el orden ideal es bondad, verdad y beldad, existen ciudades que son todas iguales: o tan reservadas que parecen arbitrarias o tan pensadas que aparecen “sin mezclas”. Adentro de este mundo, nuestro mundo, hay un orden conflictivo e infernal que, en nuestras ciudades, parece malo, aparece falso y preside lo feo. En las ciudades de afuera, sus habitantes, o son entendidos o simples pedantes. La gente de adentro es popular y sólo se afecta cuando le pasa, entre sus carencias, el mercado como una flecha, que vulgariza su voluntad. Aislando cada orden …

Repairing Harm: Using Restorative Justice To Strengthen A Fraternal Community, Larry D. Long, John Disarro

Larry D. Long

No abstract provided.

Credit And Debt In Economic Theory: Which Way Forward?, Thorvald Grung Moe

Thorvald Grung Moe

Background paper for INET workshop on Debt and finance in economics in Waterloo, Toronto nov. 2012

Indebted Dragon, Lynette H. Ong Dr

Lynette H Ong, Dr

No abstract provided.

Data Acquisition Plan For The Public Health Multi-Network Practice And Outcome Variation (Mprove) Study, Glen Mays

Glen Mays

This brief details the steps to be followed in obtaining and compiling data on the core (and optional) measures of public health service delivery for the MPROVE study. MPROVE data will need to be obtained from several different sources. Data for some measures already exist in administrative records, surveillance systems, or other sources maintained by the local and state public health agencies that participate in your PBRN. For other measures, it may be necessary to obtain data from other agencies that collaborate with the public health agencies in your PBRN. In still other cases, it may be necessary to undertake …

La Clase Media, Guillermo Arosemena

Guillermo Arosemena

No abstract provided.

¿El “Lagartija” Es El Culpable?, Fernando Carrión Mena Arq.

Fernando Carrión Mena

¿George Michael Murillo León, de 20 años, es una nueva víctima de la violencia del fútbol en el Ecuador? Murillo fue un hincha acérrimo del Barcelona de Guayaquil, tanto que era parte de la agrupación denominada “Sentimiento”, que tiene su base territorial en Durán. Ese día fatídico salió -como lo hacía en cada partido de su equipo- con destino al Estadio Monumental, para mirar el clásico local entre Barcelona y Emelec; desgraciadamente cuando se encontraban caminando por el “Puente de la Unidad Nacional” se produjo una balacera que terminó con su vida. Frente al hecho doloroso de este homicidio han …

Final Set Of Public Health Delivery Measures Selected For The Multi-Network Practice And Outcome Variation Examination (Mprove) Study, Glen Mays

Glen Mays

The Multi-Network Practice and Outcome Variation Examination Study (MPROVE) engages public health practice-based research networks (PBRNs) in the collection and analysis of measures of public health delivery across a large number of local practice settings in order to examine the causes and consequences of practice variation in public health. This document summarizes the final set of measures selected for the MPROVE study, including measures of the reach, volume, intensity, and quality of public health delivery in three domains of activity: chronic disease prevention, communicable disease control, and environmental health protection.

Crimen Organizado Y Delitos Electorales, Raúl Manuel Flores Rodriguez

Raúl Flores Rodriguez

Alguna vez nos hemos preguntado ¿en qué medida afecta la presencia de grupos criminales una elección?, existen muchas teorías que tratan de explicar el comportamiento electoral en estos escenarios tan descompuestos, sin duda hay quienes advierte que en México no pasa eso, pero es cuestión solo de reflexionar como ciudadanos y mirar un poco más al fondo del asunto, hay municipios que se deciden por sólo 10 votos de diferencia, alguna vez se han preguntado por qué hay significativos cambios en votaciones en algunos municipios de México, cooptado por el narcotráfico.

¿Qué Es El Populismo? Enfoques De Estudio Y Una Nueva Propuesta De Definición Como Un Estilo De Liderazgo, Flavia Freidenberg

Flavia Freidenberg

No abstract provided.

An Economic Analysis Of Judicial Careers, Paolo Polidori, Désirée Teobaldelli, Davide Ticchi

Davide Ticchi

The aim of this paper is to analyze from an economic perspective the effects of the judicial careers arrangement on the trials’ outcome. The institutional organization of judicial careers follows two distinct ideal systems. One is characterized by the fact that public prosecutor and judge belong to the same professional body, as magistrates, while the other one is characterized by the separation of the judiciary from prosecutors. We model this feature of the judicial system as a continuum variable and explain why this choice can be appropriate. We obtain that a more unified system of judicial careers leads to fewer …

Nsf- Research Experience, Nicki Fraser Ms.

Nicki Fraser Ms.

No abstract provided.

Voices Of Haitian Women:Letters Of Dislpaced Camp Dwellers In Port-Au-Prince, Nicki Fraser Ms.

Nicki Fraser Ms.

Introduction: On January 12, 2010, an earthquake of unprecedented scale shook the small Caribbean nation of Haiti. The epicenter of the earthquake, which measured 7.0 on the Richter scale, was approximately 25 kilometers west of Port-au-Prince. The earthquake killed an estimated 222,570 people and left 3.7 million people affected one way or the other.1In the summer of 2010, 1.5 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) were in camps distributed across Port-au-Prince.2That summer, the International Organization for Migration (IOM), an intergovernmental organization dedicated to the humane and orderly migration, undertook a project in Haiti which involved placing suggestion boxes in IDP camps …