Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Can Us Economic Variables Predict Chinese Stock Market?, Jeremy Goh, Fuwei Jiang, Jun Tu, Yuchen Wang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In the last few decades, we observed a significant increase in global economic activities and these activities may have an impact on both China's economy and stock market. Given the potential impact, we empirically examine whether US economic variables are leading indicators of the Chinese stock market. Prior to China joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) in the end of 2001, we find no statistical relationship between US economic variables and the Chinese stock market returns. However, we find US economic variables have statistically significant predictive power for periods after China's admission into the WTO. In addition, we show that …

Reserve Currency And A Lender Of Next-To-Last Resort: A Literature Review, Alida S. Skold

Alida S. Skold

The role of the US dollar as the global dominant reserve currency is eroding. Debate is ongoing regarding next steps. Moving the international monetary system to a single global currency is part of the debate. Literature reviews the eroding role of the US dollar and implications the erosion carries for the US. The Special Drawing Rights developed by the IMF could fill the role of Keynes’ recommended global currency known as the “bancor.” Regardless of the nature of the global reserve currency, access to liquidity is required to have an effective international monetary system. Literature defines a missing layer of …

Return Predictability In International Financial Markets And The Role Of Investor Sentiment, Anjeza Kadilli

Anjeza Kadilli

We investigate the predictability of stock returns in the financial market for a large panel of developed countries using investor sentiment, business-cycle variables and financial indicators within two panel regime-switching models, with threshold and smooth transition between regimes. We find strong evidence of predictability of long-term returns following the business cycles, but much weaker results for the short-run returns. During crisis times, investor sentiment and inflation become key factors in predicting stock returns. Different tests and goodness of fit measures point out that the use of regime-switching models is more appropriate than linear models. To our knowledge, this study is …

Beyond Stochastic Volatility And Jumps In Returns And Volatility, Garland Durham, Yang-Ho Park

Finance

While a great deal of attention has been focused on stochastic volatility in stock returns, there is strong evidence suggesting that return distributions have time-varying skewness and kurtosis as well. Under the risk-neutral measure, for example, this can be seen from variation across time in the shape of Black-Scholes implied volatility smiles. This paper investigates model characteristics that are consistent with variation in the shape of return distributions using a stochastic volatility model with a regime-switching feature to allow for random changes in the parameters governing volatility of volatility, leverage effect and jump intensity. The analysis consists of two steps. …

Money Supply Endogeneity And Bank Stock Returns, Z. Badarudin, M. Ariff, A. Khalid

Ahmed Khalid

This article presents results of tests on two related hypotheses on moneysupply. The first relates to an unresolved issue of money endogeneity whilethe second centres on the yet-explored relationship between money supplyand bank stock returns if money is found to be endogenous. Our results,using long-horizon data of Group of Seven (G-7) economies, supports causality in money supply as running from bank lending to bank deposits,a result that is predicted by the post-Keynesian money supply endogeneity(bank-credit-driven) theory. Thus, the result is not consistent withexogeneity proposition. A new evidence of positive relationship betweenendogenous money supply and aggregate bank stock return is statisticallysignificant …

Sustainable Water Management On Brownfields Sites, Ryan Fenwick, New England Environmental Finance Center

Sustainable Communities Capacity Building

This practice guide was developed by the Environmental Finance Center Network (EFCN) through the Capacity Building for Sustainable Communities program funded by the US Department of Housing and Urban Development and the US Environmental Protection Agency. Through a cooperative agreement with HUD, EFCN is providing capacity building and technical assistance to recipients of grants from the federal Partnership for Sustainable Communities, an interagency collaboration that aims to help towns, cities, and regions develop in more economically, environmentally, and socially sustainable ways.

Estimating The Economic Impact Of Garvan Woodland Gardens, Katherin A. Deck, Viktoria Riiman

Publications and Presentations

The study is organized as follows. First, the facilities and programs at Garvan Woodland Gardens are described in detail. Next, information on visitor and member counts, employment and volunteers, and financial information from the Gardens are provided. Finally, the results of the economic impact analysis from the IMPLAN input‐output model are presented for employment, value‐added, and output impacts on the Hot Springs area and the state of Arkansas. The detailed employment and output impacts by industry are available in the Appendix. Estimated employment impacts are compared to the county and state employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to …

University Of Arkansas Athletics Economic Impact, Katherine A. Deck, Mervin Jebaraj

Publications and Presentations

The Center for Business and Economic Research in the Sam M. Walton College of Business at the University of Arkansas was approached by the Athletic Department to conduct an economic impact study of its operations and the visitor impacts associated with the athletic events held on the University of Arkansas campus. This study examines the economic impact of the athletic department from three broad categories of activities that produce economic impacts. The first category presented in this study is the direct economic impacts of the operations of the University of Arkansas Athletic Department, using annual expenditures of the department and …

Strategic Planning For Expanding Medicare And Medicaid Populations, Dave Zoeller

Accounting and Finance Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Mexico Consensus Economic Forecast, Volume 15, Number 4, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr, Adam G. Walke

Departmental Papers (E & F)

No abstract provided.

Who Defaults On Their Home Mortgage?, Eric Doviak, Sean P. Macdonald

Publications and Research

Since Feb. 13, 2010, detailed information on every home mortgage default and foreclosure in New York State must be filed with the New York State Department of Financial Services (DFS). The data come from pre-foreclosure filing (PFF) notices that mortgage servicers must send to both the borrower and the DFS 90 days prior to initiating the foreclosure process and when a foreclosure has commenced. Pairing the PFF data with data on originations from the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) reveals the race and ethnicity of borrowers who defaulted on their home mortgages. HMDA analyses consistently reveal strong racial and ethnic …

Foreign Direct Investment: Clearing The Infrastructure Bottlenecks, Kim Song Tan, Sim Yee Lau

Research Collection School Of Economics

No abstract provided.

Integration–Segregation Decisions Under General Value Functions: ‘Create Your Own Bundle—Choose 1, 2 Or All 3!’, Martin Egozcue, Sebastien Massoni, Wing Wong, Ricardas Zitkiks

Martin Egozcue

Whether to keep products segregated (e.g., unbundled) or integrate some or all of them (e.g., bundle) has been a problem of profound interest in areas such as portfolio theory in finance, risk capital allocations in insurance and marketing of consumer products. Such decisions are inherently complex and depend on factors such as the underlying product values and consumer preferences, the latter being frequently described using value functions, also known as utility functions in economics. In this paper, we develop decision rules for multiple products, which we generally call ‘exposure units’ to naturally cover manifold scenarios spanning well beyond ‘products’. Our …

Asset Prices, Credit Growth And Monetary Policy In Nigeria, Kama Ukpai, Dinchi J. Yilkudi, Hannah Ukeje

Economic and Financial Review

This paper contributes to the debate on the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Nigeria. The paper explores the impact of monetary policy on credit growth, and whether these credit developments are capable of influencing asset prices (stock prices) in the Nigerian economy. Using the VAR model spanning annual data from 1986 to 2012, the impulse response functions revealed that the relationship between asset prices, captured by the All-Share Index, and monetary policy, is not direct, but operates mainly through the response of inflation to key monetary aggregate. A positive shock to money supply growth would raise credit and inflation which …

Vertical Trade, Exchange Rate Pass-Through, And Exchange Rate Regime, Yao Tang, Ke Pang

Economics Department Working Paper Series

We compare the welfare of different combinations of monetary and currency policies in an open-economy macroeconomic model that incorporates two important features of many small economies: a high level of vertical international trade and a prevalent use of a large trade partner's currency as the invoicing currency for both imports and exports. In this environment, a small economy prefers a fixed exchange rate regime over a flexible regime, while the larger economy prefers a flexible exchange rate regime. There are two main causes underlying our results. First, in the presence of sticky prices, relative prices adjust through changes in the …

Financial Feasibility Analysis Of Ship Sale-Leaseback Base On Excel Model, Xi Lin

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Research On Risk Management Of Ship Financial Leasing In Cimc Financial Leasing Company, Zhangcheng Shi

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Research On The Fluctuation Ship Price In New-Building Market, Tianhang Xiao

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Full Dissertation: Costly Screening And The Market Structure Of Consumer Credit, Pingkang Yu

Pingkang Yu

There is a significant theoretical literature about the nature of equilibrium in consumer credit markets. The prevailing conclusion of these models is that a pooling equilibrium across borrower risk types is unlikely to be a market equilibrium. Instead, borrowers will be segregated and self-select and the resulting separating equilibrium will have specialized lenders for different risk types. The theoretical exercises in this dissertation differ from previous literature in four major ways: 1) considering both type I and type II errors in underwriting applicants; 2) including fraudulent applicants who have no intention of repaying; 3) considering differences in both underwriting costs …

Gains From Diversification: A Regret Theory Approach, Martin Egozcue

Martin Egozcue

No abstract provided.

Estimating Willingness To Pay For Continued Use Of Plastic Grocery Bags And Willingness To Accept For Switching Completely To Reusable Bags, Jarod Dunn

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

This thesis demonstrates a surveying method to collect data to obtain tax levels for plastic grocery bag usage. This data was collected through asking respondents about a hypothetical situation in which they were required to pay a tax for using plastic bags or whether they would instead switch to using reusable bags that could be purchased at the grocery store. The respondents were also asked if they already were using reusable bags, how much would the store have to pay them for them to use reusable bags for all grocery shopping trips. From our analysis, people who use reusable bags …

Socio-Economic Determinants Of Out-Of-Pocket Payments On Healthcare In Pakistan, Ashar Muhammad Malik, Syed Iqbal Azam Shah

Community Health Sciences

BACKGROUND:

Out-of-pocket (OOP) payment on healthcare is dominant mode of financing in developing countries. In Pakistan it is 67% of total expenditure on healthcare. Analysis of determinants of OOP health expenditure is a key aspect of equity in healthcare financing. It helps to formulate an effective health policy. Evidence on OOP in Pakistan is sparse. This paper attempts to fill this research gap.

METHODS:

We estimated determinants of OOP payments on healthcare in Pakistan. We used data sets of Pakistan Household Integrated Economic Survey (HIES) and Pakistan Standard of Living Measurement (PSLM) Survey for the year 2004-05. We developed a …

The Motives Of Trade Credit Usage And The Importance Of Risk Perception For Decision-Making Behavior, Kun Zhao

Dissertations

The objective of this study is to discuss two motives of trade credit usage for large and small firms. To examine one of the motives–transaction motive—the study models a circulation mechanism in trade credit. The nature of the mechanism is such that firms are motivated to balance their trade credit inflows (accounts payable) with their outflows (accounts receivable). An empirical test is therefore needed to examine this issue. The findings in Chapter 1 support the theory of transaction motive that firms with more bank tolerance are more likely to advance the flow of trade credit to their clients. In particular, …

Analysis Of Bank Failure And Size Of Assets, Guancun Zhong

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

The financial health of the banking industry is an important prerequisite for economic stability and growth. Bank failures in the United States have run in cycles largely associated with the collapse of economic bubbles. The number of bank failures has increased dramatically over the last thirty years (Halling and Hayden, 2007). In this thesis, we try to address the following two questions: 1) What is the relationship, if any, between a bank's asset size and its likelihood of failures? 2) How can we use statistical tools to predict the numbers of bank failures in the future? Various modeling techniques are …

Detecting Bubbles In Hong Kong Residential Property Market, Matthew S. Yiu, Jun Yu, Lu Jin

Research Collection School Of Economics

This study uses a newly developed bubble detection method (Phillips, Shi and Yu, 2011) to identify real estate bubbles in the Hong Kong residential property market. Our empirical results reveal several positive bubbles in the Hong Kong residential property market, including one in 1995, a stronger one in 1997, another one in 2004, and a more recent one in 2008. In addition, the method identifies two negative bubbles in the data, one in 2000 and the other one in 2001. These empirical results continue to be valid for the mass segment and the luxury segment. However, the method finds a …

Essays On Capital Gains, Household Consumption And Corporate Payout Policy, Chris Mitchell

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

My dissertation consists of three chapters related to accrued capital gains. The first essay is concerned with estimating the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) out of accrued capital gains on owner-occupied housing in Canada. Its main methodological contribution lies in using a hedonic price equation to value these gains. The results suggest that for every 1 dollar increase in expected housing capital gains households increase total consumption by approximately 8.2 cents, and increase non-durable consumption by 6.2 cents.

The second essay of this thesis proposes a model of economic behaviour that can explain why corporations pay dividends despite their tax …

The Effect Of Treasury Auction Announcements On Interest Rates: 1990-1999, James J. Forest

James J Forest

In this study we examine the secondary-market response of U.S. Treasury interest rates to both the release of pre-auction auction supply announcements and post-auction details from U.S. Treasury auctions during the period of the 1990s. Rate changes are found to differ significantly on auction days. Pre-auction announcements of auction volumes are shown to affect rates significantly, in contrast with the findings of Wachtel and Young (1987) with respect to deficit announcements. We find that surprises in the release of bid-to-cover ratios affect Treasury rates significantly, while the surprises in the volume of noncompetitive bids appears to have little affect on …

Forced Displacement In Colombia, Fernando Estrada

Fernando Estrada

No abstract provided.

Mexico Consensus Economic Forecast, Volume 15, Number 3, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Adam G. Walke

Departmental Papers (E & F)

No abstract provided.

Rethinking Microfinance, Lan Cao

Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.