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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Uncertainty, Technical Change, And Policy Models, Erin Baker, Leon Clarke, Jeffrey Keisler, Ekundayo Shittu
Uncertainty, Technical Change, And Policy Models, Erin Baker, Leon Clarke, Jeffrey Keisler, Ekundayo Shittu
Jeffrey Keisler
Both climate change and technical change are uncertain. In this paper we show the importance of including both uncertainties when modeling for policy analysis. We then develop an approach for incorporating uncertainty of technical change into climate change policy analysis. We define and demonstrate a protocol for bottom-up expert assessments about prospects for technologies. We then describe a method for using such assessments to derive a probability distribution over future abatement curves, and to estimate random return functions for technological investment in different areas. Finally, we show how these analytic results could be used in a variety of energy-economic models …
Can The Esa Address The Threats Of Atmospheric Nitrogen Deposition? Insights From The Case Of The Bay Checkerspot Butterfly, Zdravka Tzankova, Dena Vallano, Erika Zavaleta
Can The Esa Address The Threats Of Atmospheric Nitrogen Deposition? Insights From The Case Of The Bay Checkerspot Butterfly, Zdravka Tzankova, Dena Vallano, Erika Zavaleta
Zdravka Tzankova
The Bay Checkerspot Butterfly reached its threatened status largely as a result of habitat loss through development. The species now benefits from the habitat pro- tection powers of the Endangered Species Act, yet the biggest new hazard to the survival of remaining Bay Checkerspot Butterfly populations may come from atmospheric nitrogen deposition. Driven by combustion and agricultural emissions, such deposition is an important cause of change in ecosystem structure and function, including potentially critical changes in the remaining Bay Checkerspot Butterfly habitat. We use the Bay Checkerspot Butterfly case to examine whether the Endan- gered Species Act, as it currently …