Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

From Case Studies To Experiential Learning. Is Simulation An Effective Tool For Student Assessment?, Bassem E Maamari, Darin El-Nakla,

Arab Economic and Business Journal

With the fast changes enforced by the COVID-19, many business schools found themselves streamed into using new technology and platforms to safeguard the academic year 2020-2021. The introduction of business simulation for student assessment before graduating from the undergraduate program has always presented a challenge in terms of approach to use. Today, business simulation is introduced, not only to enhance students’ learning experience but also to satisfy the assessment institutional requirement of closing the gap. This comparative quantitative study uses feedback from students of two cohorts assessed during the same academic year, one using the case method and the second …

Opportunity Cost Of Student Loan Debt Forgiveness: Testing The Impact Of Four Policy Options On United States’ Economy, Emelia Akhlaghi

CGU Theses & Dissertations

Nearly 45 million Americans are trapped in a student loan debt. In total they owe more than $1.75 trillion. Research shows that such a high amount of debt harms the U.S. economy in several ways, preventing anything from small business development to new house purchases, and even weddings and procreation. It is an issue that stakeholders have tried to address by offering different relief measures ranging from re-financing to debt cancellation. Debt cancellation has remained high on the agenda of the Democrat political leadership. This is the reason that student loan debt cancellation was on the agenda of each democrat …

Designing A Tool And Cooperative Learning: A Macos Inspired Activity, Jeffrey Byford, Jennifer Cordero, Alisha Milam, Kate Chambers, Presley Shilling

The Councilor: A National Journal of the Social Studies

This simulation activity presents how elements of Man: A Course of Study (MACOS) can be implemented into the social studies classroom. Inspired by the Tool-Making Activity found in MACOS, this modified simulation activity prompts students to design an instrument to peel an orange as they discuss life and daily tasks related to the Great Plains settlement.

2022-10 Computing Longitudinal Moments For Heterogeneous Agent Models, Sergio Ocampo, Baxter Robinson

Department of Economics Research Reports

Computing population moments for heterogeneous agent models is a necessary step for their estimation and evaluation. Computation based on Monte Carlo methods is usually time- and resource-consuming because it involves simulating a large sample of agents and potentially tracking them over time. We argue in favor of an alternative method for computing both cross-sectional and longitudinal moments that exploits the endogenous Markov transition function that defines the stationary distribution of agents in the model. The method relies on following the distribution of populations of interest by iterating forward the Markov transition function rather than focusing on a simulated sample of …

On The Estimation Of Heston-Nandi Garch Using Returns And/Or Options: A Simulation-Based Approach, Xize Ye

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

In this thesis, the Heston-Nandi GARCH(1,1) (henceforth, HN-GARCH) option pricing model is fitted via 4 maximum likelihood-based estimation and calibration approaches using simulated returns and/or options. The purpose is to examine the benefits of the joint estimation using both returns and options over the fundamental returns-only estimation on GARCH models. From our empirical studies, with the additional option sample, we can improve the efficiency of the estimates for HN-GARCH parameters. Nonetheless, the improvements for the risk premium factor, both from empirical standard errors, and sample RMSEs, are insignificant. In addition, option prices are simulated with a pre-defined noise structure and …

Small Business Risk In The Context Of A Pandemic: A Simulation, Ashlyn Sperry

Honors Undergraduate Theses

In this thesis, I consider the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on small businesses, as they are acutely at risk due to the lack of implicit government insurance that would be available to larger corporations. I will discuss insurance's characteristics using the basic theory of insurance, analyze pandemic insurance's viability in the private market, and critique alternative solutions. While the theory suggests that pandemics are not insurable in the private market, I will perform specific analysis to determine if this is the case or not. Using a simulation of the economic landscape firms face, business owners with varying levels of …

A Covid-19 Teaching Example: Pooled Testing With Microsoft Excel, Humberto Barreto

Economics and Management Faculty publications

This paper uses pooled testing as a teaching example for undergraduate statistics, econometrics, or quantitative methods courses. It offers step-by-step instructions to create an Excel spreadsheet that uses Monte Carlo simulation to find the optimal group size for a given infection rate. A completed version of the spreadsheet, along with readings, questions, and analytical solution is available at tiny.cc/pooledtesting.

Opportunities And Obstacles In The Transition To A Distributed Network Of Rooftop Solar: A Multi-Method Approach, Steve M. Hall

Boise State University Theses and Dissertations

This paper investigates the feasibility and viability of providing power to Ada County, Idaho, using a distributed network of rooftop solar photovoltaic panels. Using a multi-disciplinary and multi-method modeling approach, a detailed simulation is performed where existing structures are retro-fitted with grid-tied solar photovoltaic systems using currently available technology. Feasibility is determined using simulated supply and demand per building, while viability is determined through standard financial metrics used in the energy sector. A major critique of solar energy comes from the vast amounts of space required to efficiently capture solar power, along with the inefficiencies created by transmission loss and …

Adjusting For Guessing And Applying A Statistical Test To The Disaggregation Of Value-Added Learning Scores, Ben O. Smith, Jamie Wagner

Economics Faculty Publications

In 2016, Walstad and Wagner developed a procedure to split pre-test and post-test responses into four learning types: positive, negative, retained, and zero learning. This disaggregation is not only useful in academic studies; but also provides valuable insight to the practitioner: an instructor would take different mitigating actions in response to zero versus negative learning. However, the original disaggregation is sensitive to student guessing. This article extends the original work by accounting for guessing and provides adjusted estimators using the existing disaggregated values. Further, Monte Carlo simulations of the adjusted learning type estimates are provided. Under certain assumptions, an instructor …

Let’S Put Demography Back Into Economics: Population Pyramids In Excel, Humberto Barreto

Economics and Management Faculty publications

The economics curriculum today does not emphasize the study of population. This needs to change immediately because we are in the midst of another demographic sea change, slamming on the brakes right after a rapid acceleration during the last half of the 20th century. Instead of glibly tossing a dependency ratio onto a slide, this paper offers an easy way to improve demographic literacy using population pyramids. Simulation is used to explain the pyramid and its dynamic properties, and then real‐world data are presented. Microsoft Excel’s ability to act as a browser and download data with a single click of …

(Wp 2017-03) Agent-Based Modeling’S Open Methodology Approach: Simulation, Reflexivity, And Abduction, John B. Davis

Economics Working Papers

This paper argues that agent-based modeling’s innovations in method developed in terms of simulation techniques also involve an innovation in economic methodology. It shows how Epstein’s generative science conception departs from conventional methodological reasoning, and employs what I term an open rather than closed approach to economic methodology associated with the roles that reflexivity, counterfactual reasoning, and abduction play in ABM. Central to this idea is that improvements in how we know something, a matter of method, determine whether we know something, a matter of methodology. The paper links this alternative view of economics and economic methodology to a social …

Interest Rate Dynamics And Real Output Behaviour In Nigeria: A Simulation Analysis, S. Rapu, G. Sanni, D. Penzin, N. Nkang, P. Golit, H. Okafor, E. Ibi

Economic and Financial Review

The declining output growth observed from the second quarter of 2014, which led to calls for a more expansionary monetary policy despite rising inflationary pressure, necessitated a reassessment of the impact of interest rate on real output growth in Nigeria. Using a Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) model and quarterly data from 2000:Q4 to 2015:Q3, the effect of monetary policy transmission (interest rate dynamics) on real output performance was estimated. Although results of the simulation analysis were somewhat mixed, those of the impulse response functions indicated that positive shocks to monetary policy rate (MPR) produced a negative and small impact on …

Comparing Performance Of Methods To Deal With Differential Attrition In Lottery Based Evaluations, Gema Zamarro, Kaitlin P. Anderson, Jennifer L. Steele, Trey Miller

Gema Zamarro

Modeling Economic Impacts Of The Inland Waterway Transportation System, Furkan Oztanriseven

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The inland waterway transportation system of the United States (U.S.) handles 11.7 billion tons of freight annually and connects the heartland of the U.S. with the rest of the world by providing a fuel-efficient and environmentally friendly mode of transportation. This dissertation aims to create decision support tools for maritime stakeholders to measure the economic impacts of the inland waterway transportation systems under real world scenarios including disruptions, demand changes, port expansion decisions, and channel deepening investments. Monte Carlo simulation, system dynamics, discrete-event simulation, agent-based modeling, and multiregional input-output modeling techniques are utilized to analyze the complex relationships between inland …

Indeterminacy In Stochastic Overlapping Generations Models: Real Effects In The Long Run, Zhigang Feng, Matthew Hoelle

Economics Faculty Publications

Indeterminate equilibria are known to exist for overlapping generations models, though recent research has been limited to deterministic settings in which all equilibria converge to a steady state in the long run. This paper analyzes stochastic overlapping generations models with 3-period lived representative consumers and adopts a novel computational algorithm to numerically approximate the entire set of competitive equilibria. In a stochastic setting with incomplete markets, indeterminacy has real effects in the long run. Our numerical simulations reveal that indeterminacy is an order of magnitude more important than endowment shocks in explaining long-run consumption and asset price volatility.

Techno-Economic Analysis Of Protein Concentrate Produced By Flash Hydrolysis Of Microalgae, Alexander Nana Yaw Asiedu

Civil & Environmental Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Process simulation and techno-economic analysis of 95wt.% protein concentrate from microalgae has been performed using SuperPro Designer v. 9.0. This work, first of its kind, is focused on the economic analysis of protein concentrate that includes processes such as microalgae cultivation, harvesting, protein extraction and drying steps. A baseline capacity of 160 MT/day protein concentrate production on commercial basis has been analyzed. This throughput requires 336 MT/day dry algae (54 wt.% protein). The amount of carbon dioxide required to grow this quantum of algae is estimated to be 648 MT/day, which is produced from an in situ 21 MW power …

Self-Exciting Jumps, Learning, And Asset Pricing Implications, Andras Fulop, Junye Li, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

The paper proposes a self-exciting asset pricing model that takes into account co-jumps between prices and volatility and self-exciting jump clustering. We employ a Bayesian learning approach to implement real-time sequential analysis. We find evidence of self-exciting jump clustering since the 1987 market crash, and its importance becomes more obvious at the onset of the 2008 global financial crisis. We also find that learning affects the tail behaviors of the return distributions and has important implications for risk management, volatility forecasting, and option pricing.

The Expected Value Of An Advantage Blackjack Player, Kamron Jensen

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

The following paper takes an in-depth look at the gambling game Blackjack, also known as Twenty-One, and asks the question: If the game is beatable, how much can one expect to win playing Blackjack? This paper starts by explaining how the game is played and continues by telling of how Thorpe (1962) discovered that the game can be beaten. It then goes into detail of how the game has changed over the past 50 years and what it takes to beat the game today. To find the expected value of a winning strategy, I create a computer program to run …

Simulating Confidence For The Ellison-Glaeser Index, Andrew J. Cassey, Ben O. Smith

Economics Faculty Publications

The Ellison and Glaeser (1997) index is an unbiased statistic of industrial localization. Though the expected value of the index is known, ad hoc thresholds are used to interpret the extent of localization. We improve the interpretation of the index by simulating confidence intervals that a practitioner may use for a statistical test. In the data, we find cases whose index value is above the ad hoc threshold that are not statistically significant. We find many cases below the ad hoc threshold that are statistically significant. Our simulation program is freely available and is customizable for specific applications.

Modeling The Effects Of Port Disasters, Jomon Aliyas Paul, Michael Maloni

Jomon Aliyas Paul

Weather or terrorism-related disasters at seaports can lead to significant economic losses from vessel and cargo delays. In times of such disasters, port capacities and optimal shipment routings would change rapidly, requiring near real-time analyses for planning response operations. To address this challenge, we offer a decision support system to help port networks analyze disaster response scenarios. As part of the model, an algorithm routes arriving ships to ports to optimize the use of network capacity with respect to ocean and inland transportation, port and inventory capital costs. To reflect changing port congestion conditions, port capacities are dynamically updated in …

Numerical Simulation Of Nonoptimal Dynamic Equilibrium Models, Zhigang Feng, Jianjun Miao, Adrian Peralta-Alva, Manuel S. Santos

Economics Faculty Publications

In this paper we propose a recursive equilibrium algorithm for the numerical simulation of nonoptimal dynamic economies. This algorithm builds upon a convergent operator over an expanded set of state variables. The fixed point of this operator defines the set of all Markovian equilibria. We study approximation properties of the operator. We also apply our recursive equilibrium algorithm to various models with heterogeneous agents, incomplete financial markets, endogenous and exogenous borrowing constraints, taxes, and money.

Simulation Analysis Of The Louisiana Unemployment Insurance Tax System: Final Report, Christopher J. O'Leary

Upjohn Institute Technical Reports

Unemployment insurance (UI) is a federal-state program designed to provide adequate partial income replacement to workers during temporary periods of involuntary joblessness. The UI system acts as an automatic macroeconomic stabilizer, increasing spending during recessions and reducing aggregate spending during recoveries. The program helps prevent recipients from slipping into poverty during unemployment.

This report reviews the recent history of financing regular UI benefits in Louisiana, assesses the adequacy of financing, and suggests areas where the financing system could be improved. The project aims to identify possible system reforms that will 1) assure long-term financial stability, 2) increase tax equity, and …

Whole Farm Modeling Of Precision Agriculture Technologies, Jordan Murphy Shockley

University of Kentucky Doctoral Dissertations

This dissertation investigated farm management concerns faced by grain producers due to the acquisition of various precision agriculture technologies. The technologies evaluated in the three manuscripts included 1) auto-steer navigation, 2) automatic section control, and 3) autonomous machinery. Each manuscript utilized a multifaceted economic model in a whole-farm decision-making framework to determine the impact of precision agriculture technology on machinery management, production management, and risk management. This approach allowed for a thorough investigation into various precision agriculture technologies which helped address the relative dearth of economic studies of precision agriculture and farm management. Moreover, the research conducted on the above …

Modeling And Simulation Of Value -At -Risk In The Financial Market Area, Xiangyin Zheng

Doctoral Dissertations

Value-at-Risk (VaR) is a statistical approach to measure market risk. It is widely used by banks, securities firms, commodity and energy merchants, and other trading organizations. The main focus of this research is measuring and analyzing market risk by modeling and simulation of Value-at-Risk for portfolios in the financial market area. The objectives are (1) predicting possible future loss for a financial portfolio from VaR measurement, and (2) identifying how the distributions of the risk factors affect the distribution of the portfolio. Results from (1) and (2) provide valuable information for portfolio optimization and risk management.

The model systems chosen …

External Debt And Growth Dynamics, Si Chen

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Based on an extended growth model, this thesis further explores the joint dynamics between external debt and growth. The model explicitly expresses this growth dynamic mechanism incorporating external debt as an important explanatory variable with risk premium and other related structural factors. The interactions between external debt and growth are interpreted as directly and mainly through the channel of capital accumulation and indirectly through technology change. These constitute the functional form foundation to solve the main concern on the effect of external debt upon growth adjustment path. The numerical simulations of the model indicate that when external debt is assumed …

Senturion: Predictive Political Simulation Model, Mark Abdollahian, Michael Baranick, Brian Efird, Jacek J. Kugler

CGU Faculty Publications and Research

This paper summarizes work utilizing the Senturion predictive analysis software at the National Defense University (NDU). The Center for Technology and National Security Policy (CTNSP) at NDU has been testing the Senturion capability since 2002, and has begun to support the application of this new technology in DOD. In this paper, we begin by describing the methodology underlying the software, and then provide an overview of three case studies that used the software: a predictive analysis of the stabilization and reconstruction phase of Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF), the run-up to the Iraqi elections in January 2005, and the leadership transition …

L S Penrose's Limit Theorem: Tests By Simulation, Pao Li Chang, Vincent Chua, Moshe Machover

Research Collection School Of Economics

L S Penrose's Limit Theorem-which is implicit in Penrose (1952, p. 72) [Penrose, 1952. On the Objective Study of Crowd Behavior. H. K. Lewis and Co, London, p. 72] and for which he gave no rigorous proof-says that, in simple weighted voting games, if the number of voters increases indefinitely and the relative quota is pegged, then-under certain conditions-the ratio between the voting powers of any two voters converges to the ratio between their weights. Lindner and Machover (2004) [Lindner I., Machover M. 2004. L.S. Penrose's limit theorem: proof of some special cases. Mathematical Social Sciences 47, 37-49] prove some …

L S Penrose's Limit Theorem: Tests By Simulation, Pao-Li Chang, Vincent Chua, Moshe Machover

Research Collection School Of Economics

LS Penrose’s limit theorem (PLT) – which is implicit in Penrose [5, p. 72] and for which he gave no rigorous proof – says that, in simple weighted voting games, if the number of voters increases indefinitely while existing voters retain their weights and the relative quota is pegged, then – under certain conditions – the ratio between the voting powers of any two voters converges to the ratio between their weights. Lindner and Machover [3] prove some special cases of PLT; and conjecture that the theorem holds, under rather general conditions, for large classes of weighted voting games, various …

A Model Of The Impact Of Reimbursement Schemes On Health Plan Choice, Emmett Keeler, Grace Carter, Joseph Newhouse

Emmett Keeler

Flat capitation (uniform prospective payments) makes enrolling healthy enrollees profitable to health plans. Plans with relatively generous benefits may attract the sick and fail through a premium spiral. We simulate a model of idealized managed competition to explore the effect on market performance of alternatives to flat capitation such as severity-adjusted capitation and reduced supply-side cost-sharing. In our model flat capitation causes severe market problems. Severity adjustment and to a lesser extent reduced supply-side cost-sharing improve market performance, but outcomes are efficient only in cases in which people bear the marginal costs of their choices.

A Simulation Games Approach To Suppliment The Teaching Of Basic Economics Concepts In Elementary School, David L. Spies

All Graduate Projects

A year-long simulation game was created to facilitate the teaching of basic economics in a sixth and seventh grade middle school. The game could be adapted to implementation at lower grade levels. The students built two, table-top cities. They established a money system and were paid for positive behavior and effort. With their earned income and with loans from a bank, they purchased land, built homes, invested in business franchises, engaged in trade, and worked collectively to finance and build government projects and services. Discussion questions and evaluation tests were devloped, based upon the curriculum guidelines established by the Joint …