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Articles 1 - 11 of 11
Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Optimal Inference For Spot Regressions, Tim Bollerslev, Jia Li, Yuexuan Ren
Optimal Inference For Spot Regressions, Tim Bollerslev, Jia Li, Yuexuan Ren
Research Collection School Of Economics
Betas from return regressions are commonly used to measure systematic financial market risks. "Good" beta measurements are essential for a range of empirical inquiries in finance and macroeconomics. We introduce a novel econometric framework for the nonparametric estimation of time-varying betas with high-frequency data. The "local Gaussian" property of the generic continuous-time benchmark model enables optimal "finite-sample" inference in a well-defined sense. It also affords more reliable inference in empirically realistic settings compared to conventional large-sample approaches. Two applications pertaining to the tracking performance of leveraged ETFs and an intraday event study illustrate the practical usefulness of the new procedures.
Systematic And Idiosyncratic Risks Of The U.S. Airline Industry, Rafiqul Bhuyan, André Varella Mollick, Md Ruhul Amin
Systematic And Idiosyncratic Risks Of The U.S. Airline Industry, Rafiqul Bhuyan, André Varella Mollick, Md Ruhul Amin
Economics and Finance Faculty Publications and Presentations
Understanding the risky nature of the airline industry has received attention in the tourism literature from separate angles. Although the systematic risk of the airline industry has been examined before, idiosyncratic risk has largely been ignored. This study fills this gap in the tourism literature by investigating the effect of passengers’ air travel on systematic and idiosyncratic risks of the U.S. airline industry. Using historical air travel data and utilizing both OLS and fixed-effect models, this paper documents negative relationships between the occupancy of airline seats and idiosyncratic risks for 21 U.S. airline companies. This negative effect of occupancy is …
Variation And Efficiency Of High-Frequency Betas, Congshan Zhang, Jia Li, Viktor Todorov, George Tauchen
Variation And Efficiency Of High-Frequency Betas, Congshan Zhang, Jia Li, Viktor Todorov, George Tauchen
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper studies the efficient estimation of betas from high-frequency return data on a fixed time interval. Under an assumption of equal diffusive and jump betas, we derive the semiparametric efficiency bound for estimating the common beta and develop an adaptive estimator that attains the efficiency bound. We further propose a Hausman type test for deciding whether the common beta assumption is true from the high-frequency data. In our empirical analysis we provide examples of stocks and time periods for which a common market beta assumption appears true and ones for which this is not the case. We further quantify …
Systematic Risk-Factors Among U.S. Stock Market Sectors, Maksim V. Papenkov
Systematic Risk-Factors Among U.S. Stock Market Sectors, Maksim V. Papenkov
Economics
The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and its extensions are a family of empirical asset pricing models which partition risk as either "systematic" (market-wide) or "idiosyncratic" (stock-specific). Examples of systematic risk-factors include the market return, company size, and company value. Within the framework of the CAPM-family of models, it is assumed that the effects of these systematic risk-factors are homogenous among sectors. This paper develops an extension to the CAPM relaxing this assumption, by directly comparing these systematic risk-factors at the sector-level. Utilizing CRSP and Compustat data, systematic risk-factor premiums are estimated for each sector, which demonstrates heterogeneity, with respect …
Adaptive Estimation Of Continuous-Time Regression Models Using High-Frequency Data, Jia Li, Viktor Todorov, George Tauchen
Adaptive Estimation Of Continuous-Time Regression Models Using High-Frequency Data, Jia Li, Viktor Todorov, George Tauchen
Research Collection School Of Economics
We derive the asymptotic efficiency bound for regular estimates of the slope coefficient in a linear continuous-time regression model for the continuous martingale parts of two Itô semimartingales observed on a fixed time interval with asymptotically shrinking mesh of the observation grid. We further construct an estimator from high-frequency data that achieves this efficiency bound and, indeed, is adaptive to the presence of infinite-dimensional nuisance components. The estimator is formed by taking optimal weighted average of local nonparametric volatility estimates that are constructed over blocks of high-frequency observations. The asymptotic efficiency bound is derived under a Markov assumption for the …
Beta Stationarity And Estimation Period: Evidence From Pakistan's Equity Market, Sana Tauseef
Beta Stationarity And Estimation Period: Evidence From Pakistan's Equity Market, Sana Tauseef
Business Review
This study examines the stability of individual stock beta coefficients over time and its link with the length of estimation periods. Using data for 325 stocks from Pakistan for the period 1999 to 2012, I show that beta coefficients are not stable on average but become more stable as the estimation period increases. This suggests that longer estimation periods should be used for predicting future beta coefficients. JEL Classification: G12, G23
Asimmetria Del Rischio Sistematico Dei Titolo Immobiliari Americani: Nuove Evidenze Econometriche, Paola De Santis, Carlo Drago
Asimmetria Del Rischio Sistematico Dei Titolo Immobiliari Americani: Nuove Evidenze Econometriche, Paola De Santis, Carlo Drago
Carlo Drago
In questo lavoro riscontriamo un aumento del rischio sistematico dei titoli del mercato immobiliare americano nell’anno 2007 seguito da un ritorno ai valori iniziali nell’anno 2009 e si evidenzia la possibile presenza di break strutturali. Per valutare il suddetto rischio sistematico è stato scelto il modello a tre fattori di Fama e French ed è stata studiata la relazione tra l’extra rendimento dell’indice REIT, utilizzato come proxy dell’andamento dei titoli immobiliari americani, e l’extra rendimento dell’indice S&P500 rappresentativo del rendimento del portafoglio di mercato. I risultati confermano la presenza di un “Asymmetric REIT Beta Puzzle” coerentemente con alcuni precedenti studi …
Examining The Low Volatility Anomaly In Stock Prices, Munish Malhotra
Examining The Low Volatility Anomaly In Stock Prices, Munish Malhotra
Electronic Theses and Dissertations
Modern portfolio theory states that investments with greater beta, a common measure of risk, require greater returns from investors in order to compensate them for taking greater risk. Therefore, under the premise that market participants act rationally and therefore markets run efficiently, investments with higher beta should generate higher returns vis-à-vis investments with lower beta over the long run. In fact, many studies suggest that investments with lower beta actually generate equal to or higher returns relative to investments with higher beta. In looking at data for the S&P 500 going back 22 years between 1990 and 2012, this study …
A Note On Empirical Sample Distribution Of Journal Impact Factors In Major Discipline Groups, Sudhanshu K. Mishra
A Note On Empirical Sample Distribution Of Journal Impact Factors In Major Discipline Groups, Sudhanshu K. Mishra
Sudhanshu K Mishra
What type of statistical distribution do the Journal Impact Factors follow? In the past, researchers have hypothesized various types of statistical distributions underlying the generation mechanism of journal impact factors. These are: lognormal, normal, approximately normal, Weibull, negative exponential, combination of exponentials, Poisson, Generalized inverse Gaussian-Poisson, negative binomial, generalized Waring, gamma, etc. It is pertinent to note that the major characteristics of JIF data lay in the asymmetry and non-mesokurticity. The present study, frequently encounters Burr-XII, inverse Burr-III (Dagum), Johnson SU, and a few other distributions closely related to Burr distributions to best fit the JIF data in subject groups …
What Do The Ibbottson Historical Studies Really Prove About Firm Size, Risk And Return?, Michael Sack Elmaleh
What Do The Ibbottson Historical Studies Really Prove About Firm Size, Risk And Return?, Michael Sack Elmaleh
Michael Sack Elmaleh
I deny that the Ibbottson historical studies prove that small and medium caps outperform large caps because they are more risky. First, I question whether covariance measures are necessarily a good proxy for risk. The higher levels of volatility associated with small and medium cap versus large cap may be a statistical artifact: the greater number of transactions associated with large caps as compared to small caps may account for this difference. Secondly, higher returns on small and medium caps may be a function of less efficient information distribution for these securities as compared to large caps. Finally, can we …
The Income Method Of Valuation: A False Analogy Between Bonds And Stocks, Michael Sack Elmaleh
The Income Method Of Valuation: A False Analogy Between Bonds And Stocks, Michael Sack Elmaleh
Michael Sack Elmaleh
The discounting of future income streams by a risk adjusted rate of return by proponents of the income method reflects a misplaced faith in the ability to project accurately future income streams and pick out the “right” rate of return. Future income streams are fairly reliably predictable when analyzing a debt instrument. However, equity investment future income streams are notoriously unpredictable. Similarly assessing the risk associated with realizing returns from a fixed security is comparatively easy in comparison with assessing the risks associated with equity returns. The widely used Beta has not proved to be a very stable measure of …