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Economics

1998

Institution
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Articles 31 - 60 of 451

Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences

Residential Choices And Prospective Risks Of Nursing Home Entry, Kenneth A. Couch, Duke Kao Nov 1998

Residential Choices And Prospective Risks Of Nursing Home Entry, Kenneth A. Couch, Duke Kao

Center for Policy Research

Nationally representative estimates of the prospective risk of entry into a nursing home and the likelihood of residing in a nursing home are obtained using data from the Longitudinal Study of Aging: 1984-1990. The roles of demographic characteristics, kin availability, and health status in determining entry into and residence in nursing homes is examined. Caregivers facilitate community residence and reduce the risk of nursing home entry for those with functional limitations. Dementia in combination with functional limitations increases the risk of nursing home entry.

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Evaluating Density Forecasts With Applications To Financial Risk Management, Francis X. Diebold, Todd A. Gunther, Anthony S. Tay Nov 1998

Evaluating Density Forecasts With Applications To Financial Risk Management, Francis X. Diebold, Todd A. Gunther, Anthony S. Tay

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose methods for evaluating density forecasts. We focus primarily on methods that are applicable regardless of the particular user’s loss function. We illustrate the methods with a detailed simulation example, and then we present an application to density forecasting of daily stock market returns. We discuss extensions for improving suboptimal density forecasts, multi-step-ahead density forecast evaluation, multivariate density forecast evaluation, monitoring for structural change and its relationship to density forecasting, and density forecast evaluation with known loss function.

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Sizing Up The Agricultural Downturn, Donald L. Peterson Oct 1998

Sizing Up The Agricultural Downturn, Donald L. Peterson

Economics Commentator

No abstract provided.

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Trends. The Global Threat Of Fundamentalism, Ibpp Editor Oct 1998

Trends. The Global Threat Of Fundamentalism, Ibpp Editor

International Bulletin of Political Psychology

The author discusses the movement of neoclassical economics adhered to by leaders of the International Monetary Fund, many Western central bankers, ministers of finance, and global investors.

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Trends. The Proliferation Of Nuclear Weapons And Economic Recession: Global Crises That Turn Right Thinking On Its Head, Ibpp Editor Oct 1998

Trends. The Proliferation Of Nuclear Weapons And Economic Recession: Global Crises That Turn Right Thinking On Its Head, Ibpp Editor

International Bulletin of Political Psychology

The author discusses the impact of the end of the cold war on the rest of the world.

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Vol. 2, No. 3: Xenophobia: Hostility 'Growing Alarmingly', Vincent Williams, Jonathan Crush Oct 1998

Vol. 2, No. 3: Xenophobia: Hostility 'Growing Alarmingly', Vincent Williams, Jonathan Crush

Southern African Migration Programme

No abstract provided.

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Economic Currents: The State Of The State Economy, Alan Clayton-Matthews Oct 1998

Economic Currents: The State Of The State Economy, Alan Clayton-Matthews

Public Policy and Public Affairs Faculty Publication Series

The rising trade deficit that originated in the Pacific Rim Tiger economies in the summer of 1997 and then spread to Japan is now inundating the Massachusetts economy. For months we felt its benefits: lower import prices due to the relatively strong dollar; lower raw materials prices, thanks to the drop in worldwide demand; and lower interest rates because of the flight to quality U.S. securities. Now the flip side has become evident. East Asian purchases of American goods have plummeted; they are simply too expensive for these countries to afford. The strong dollar is causing American-made goods to be …

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Endnotes: New Current And Leading Indexes For Massachusetts, Alan Clayton-Matthews Oct 1998

Endnotes: New Current And Leading Indexes For Massachusetts, Alan Clayton-Matthews

Public Policy and Public Affairs Faculty Publication Series

Appearing in this issue of Benchmarks is a new current index and a new leading index for the state of Massachusetts. The current index is composed of four state-level economic indicators that move concurrently with the commonwealth's economy: establishment employment, the unemployment rate, withholding taxes, and sales taxes. The index is normalized at 100 in July 1987. Its average trend growth over 1978–96 is set to equal the trend growth of real gross state product. The current index indicates whether the economy is expanding or contracting and at what rate it is doing so. It provides a more comprehensive and …

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Observed Choice, Estimation, And Optimism About Policy Changes, Eric Bennett Rasmusen Oct 1998

Observed Choice, Estimation, And Optimism About Policy Changes, Eric Bennett Rasmusen

Eric Bennett Rasmusen

A policy will be used more heavily in a particular time and place where its marginal cost is lower. The analyst who treats times and places as identical will overestimate the policy's net benefit, especially for policy intensities greater than exist in his sample. In regression analysis, the problem can be solved by instrumental variables and a correction for heteroskedasticity. In an example using state- level data, the technique substantially increases the estimated responsiveness of the illegitimacy rate to transfer payments.

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Efficient Relocation Of Spectrum Incumbents, Peter Cramton, Evan Kwerel, John Williams Oct 1998

Efficient Relocation Of Spectrum Incumbents, Peter Cramton, Evan Kwerel, John Williams

Peter Cramton

Changes in technologies and in consumer demands have made prior radio spectrum allocations far from efficient. To address this problem the FCC has recently reallocated spectrum for more flexible use in bands that are partially occupied by incumbent license holders. Often, it is necessary for the new license holder to relocate incumbents to make efficient use of the spectrum. Regulations structuring the negotiation between incumbent and new entrant can promote efficiency. In particular, giving the new entrant the right to move the incumbent with compensation can reduce negotiation costs and promote efficiency when there is private information about spectrum values …

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Affidavit Of Peter Cramton, Peter Cramton Oct 1998

Affidavit Of Peter Cramton, Peter Cramton

Peter Cramton

Reply to comments on review of rules. For ISO New England.

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The Efficiency Of The Fcc Spectrum Auctions, Peter Cramton Oct 1998

The Efficiency Of The Fcc Spectrum Auctions, Peter Cramton

Peter Cramton

From July 1994 to July 1996, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) conducted nine spectrum auctions, raising about $20 billion for the U.S. Treasury. The auctions assigned thousands of licenses to hundreds of firms. Were the auctions efficient? Did they award the licenses to the firms best able to turn the spectrum into valuable services for consumers? There is substantial evidence that the FCC's simultaneous ascending auction worked well. It raised large revenues. It revealed critical information in the process of bidding and gave bidders the flexibility to adjust strategies in response to new information. As a result, similar licenses sold …

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Efficient Relocation Of Spectrum Incumbents, Peter Cramton, Evan Kwerel, John Williams Oct 1998

Efficient Relocation Of Spectrum Incumbents, Peter Cramton, Evan Kwerel, John Williams

Peter Cramton

Changes in technologies and in consumer demands have made prior radio spectrum allocations far from efficient. To address this problem the FCC has recently reallocated spectrum for more flexible use in bands that are partially occupied by incumbent license holders. Often, it is necessary for the new license holder to relocate incumbents to make efficient use of the spectrum. Regulations structuring the negotiation between incumbent and new entrant can promote efficiency. In particular, giving the new entrant the right to move the incumbent with compensation can reduce negotiation costs and promote efficiency when there is private information about spectrum values …

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Institutionalism: Intergovernmental Exchange, Administration-Centered Behavior, And Policy Outcomes In Urban Agencies, Herman L. Boschken Oct 1998

Institutionalism: Intergovernmental Exchange, Administration-Centered Behavior, And Policy Outcomes In Urban Agencies, Herman L. Boschken

Herman L. Boschken

This article inquires about the sufficiency of institutional exchange theory in explaining the impacts of intergovernmental power structure on agency policy making. Based on rational behavior, transactional exchange, and game playing, this so called new institutionalism points to the degree of autonomy held by an agency in its collaboration with other government jurisdictions as a principal determinant of a patterned bias in agency policy outcomes. The author first summarizes theory arguments and derives hypotheses about agency outcomes that are skewed to favor some interests over others. He then reports results of a multiple regression analysis of a sample of forty-two …

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Industrial Resources: Union County, Kentucky Library Research Collections Oct 1998

Industrial Resources: Union County, Kentucky Library Research Collections

Union County

"Resources for Economic Development: Union County, [Kentucky]" prepared by the Kentucky Cabinet for Economic Development, Division of Research in cooperation with the Union County Economic Development Foundation, Inc., October 1998. The report includes, but is not limited to, information about: population, labor market, local manufacturing, transportation, utilities, fuel, water, sewage, industrial sites, local government and services, taxes, educational and health facilities, housing, communication, recreation, natural resources, markets, and climate

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Industrial Resources: Webster County, Kentucky Library Research Collections Oct 1998

Industrial Resources: Webster County, Kentucky Library Research Collections

Webster County

"Resources for Economic Development: Webster County, [Kentucky]" prepared by the Kentucky Cabinet for Economic Development, Division of Research in cooperation with the Webster County Economic Development Corporation, October 1998. The report includes, but is not limited to, information about: population, labor market, local manufacturing, transportation, utilities, fuel, water, industrial sites, local government and services, taxes, educational and health facilities, housing, communication, recreation, natural resources, markets, and climate.

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Industrial Resources - Edmonson County, Kentucky Library Research Collections Oct 1998

Industrial Resources - Edmonson County, Kentucky Library Research Collections

Edmonson County

"Resources for Economic Development: Edmonson County, Kentucky" prepared by the Kentucky Cabinet for Economic Development, Division of Research, and the Brownsville/Edmonson County Chamber of Commerce, 1998. The report includes, but is not limited to, information about: population, labor market, local manufacturing, transportation, utilities, fuel, water, sewage, industrial sites, local government and services, taxes, educational and health facilities, housing, communication, recreation, natural resources, markets, and climate.

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Industrial Resources: Crittenden County - Marion, Kentucky Library Research Collections Oct 1998

Industrial Resources: Crittenden County - Marion, Kentucky Library Research Collections

Crittenden County

"Resources for Economic Development: Marion (Crittenden County), Kentucky" prepared by the Kentucky Cabinet for Economic Development, Division of Research, and the Crittenden County Economic Development Corporation, 1998. The report includes, but is not limited to, information about: population, labor market, local manufacturing, transportation, utilities, fuel, water, sewage, industrial sites, local government and services, taxes, educational and health facilities, housing, communication, recreation, natural resources, markets, and climate.

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Industrial Resources - Fulton County - Fulton, Kentucky Library Research Collections Oct 1998

Industrial Resources - Fulton County - Fulton, Kentucky Library Research Collections

Fulton County

"Resources for Economic Development: Fulton County, Kentucky” prepared by the Kentucky Cabinet for Economic Development, Division of Research, and the Fulton County Economic Development Partnership, 1998. The report includes, but is not limited to, information about: population, labor market, local manufacturing, transportation, utilities, fuel, water, sewage, industrial sites, local government and services, taxes, educational and health facilities, housing, communication, recreation, natural resources, markets, and climate.

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Industrial Resources: Logan County, Kentucky Library Research Collection Oct 1998

Industrial Resources: Logan County, Kentucky Library Research Collection

Logan County

"Resources for Economic Development: Logan County" prepared by the Kentucky Cabinet for Economic Development, Division or Research in cooperation with the Logan County Economic Development Commission, October 1998. The report includes, but is not limited to, information about: population, labor market, local manufacturing, transportation, utilities, fuel, water, sewage, industrial sites, local government and services, taxes, educational and health facilities, housing, communication, recreation, natural resources, markets, and climate.

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A Political Model Of Monetary Policy With Application To The Real Fed Funds Rate, Tony Caporale, Kevin B. Grier Oct 1998

A Political Model Of Monetary Policy With Application To The Real Fed Funds Rate, Tony Caporale, Kevin B. Grier

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

We construct an empirical model of U.S. monetary policy assuming that the Federal Reserve is an ordinary federal bureaucracy. We use the real Federal Funds rate as our policy measure and show the existence of significant executive, legislative, and bureaucratic influence on the real rate of interest from 1961 to 1996. We find that presidential party is an adequate statistical measure of executive influence and that the voting scores of the Senate Banking Committee leadership best represent legislative influence. We argue that political changes cause systematic and predictable changes in monetary policy.

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Government Regulation Of The Automobile: Extensive And Growing, Murray L. Weidenbaum Oct 1998

Government Regulation Of The Automobile: Extensive And Growing, Murray L. Weidenbaum

Murray Weidenbaum Publications

Automobile regulation is very burdensome and in many cases works at cross-purposes. By increasing safety features, fuel economy may be reduced.

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Price Competition For An Informed Buyer, Giuseppe Moscarini, Marco Ottaviani Oct 1998

Price Competition For An Informed Buyer, Giuseppe Moscarini, Marco Ottaviani

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We investigate the outcomes of simultaneous price competition in the presence of private information on the demand side. Each of two sellers offers a different variety of a good to a buyer endowed with a private binary signal on their relative quality. We analyze how the unique equilibrium of the game changes as a function of the (common) prior belief on the relative quality of the goods and the precision of the private information of the buyer. Competition is fierce, and the buyer enjoys high rents, when the prior belief is biased in favor of one good and private signals …

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Jeffreys Prior Analysis Of The Simultaneous Equations Model In The Case With N + 1 Endogenous Variables, John C. Chao, Peter C.B. Phillips Oct 1998

Jeffreys Prior Analysis Of The Simultaneous Equations Model In The Case With N + 1 Endogenous Variables, John C. Chao, Peter C.B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper analyzes the behavior of posterior distributions under the Jeffreys prior in a simultaneous equations model. The case under study is that of a general limited information setup with n +1 endogenous variables. The Jeffreys prior is shown to give rise to a marginal posterior density which has Cauchy-like tails similar to that exhibited by the exact finite sample distribution of the corresponding LIML estimator. A stronger correspondence is established in the special case of a just-identified orthonormal canonical model, where the posterior density under the Jeffreys prior is shown to have the same functional form as the density …

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Rissanen's Theorem And Econometric Time Series, Werner Ploberger, Peter C.B. Phillips Oct 1998

Rissanen's Theorem And Econometric Time Series, Werner Ploberger, Peter C.B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

In a typical empirical modeling context, the data generating process (DGP) of a time series is assumed to be known up to a finite-dimensional parameter. In such cases, Rissanen’s (1986) theorem provides a lower bound for the empirically achievable distance between all possible data-based models and the true DGP. This distance depends only on the dimension of the parameter space. The present paper examines the empirical relevance of this notion to econometric time series and discusses a new version of the theorem that allows for nonstationary DGP’s. Nonstationarity is relevant in many economic applications and it is shown that the …

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The Labor Income Tax Equivalent Of Price Scissors In Pre-Reform China, Hiroyuki Imai Oct 1998

The Labor Income Tax Equivalent Of Price Scissors In Pre-Reform China, Hiroyuki Imai

CAPS Working Paper Series

The government in a centrally planned economy can raise investable resources through price and wage manipulation. By treating price and wage controls as an implicit form of labor income taxation. I have assessed the scale of resource transfers from households to the government in pre-reform China. From the observed rise of the labor income share in the non-agricultural sector output resulting from price and wage liberalization since 1979, the implicit tax revenue during the 1964-78 period is assessed as 10.1 % of GDP. According to estimates based on a two-sector model, this implicit labor income tax led to implied reduction …

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New Unit Root Asymptotics In The Presence Of Deterministric Trends, Peter C.B. Phillips Oct 1998

New Unit Root Asymptotics In The Presence Of Deterministric Trends, Peter C.B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Recent work by the author (1998) has shown that stochastic trends can be validly represented in empirical regressions in terms of deterministic functions of time. These representations offer an alternative mechanism for modelling stochastic trends. It is shown here that the alternate representations affect the asymptotics of all commonly used unit root tests in the presence of trends. In particular, the critical values of unit root tests diverge when the number of deterministic regressors K approaches infinity as the sample size n approaches infinity. In such circumstances, use of conventional critical values based on fixed K will lead to rejection …

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The Health Of Nations: Irving Fisher And The Contribution Of Improved Longevity To Living Standard, William D. Nordhaus Oct 1998

The Health Of Nations: Irving Fisher And The Contribution Of Improved Longevity To Living Standard, William D. Nordhaus

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Among Irving Fisher’s many contributions to economics, one that is little noted and barely remembered is his emphasis on the economic importance of health. For the most part, his concern was in promoting healthy life styles. In addition, he made an early (perhaps the earliest) estimate of the impact of mortality and morbidity on national output.

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Requiem For Kyoto: An Economic Analysis Of The Kyoto Protocol, William D. Nordhaus, Joseph G. Boyer Oct 1998

Requiem For Kyoto: An Economic Analysis Of The Kyoto Protocol, William D. Nordhaus, Joseph G. Boyer

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper uses the newly developed RICE-98 model to analyze the economics of the Kyoto Protocol. It analyzes versions of the Kyoto Protocol that have different approaches to trading emissions rights and compares these with efficient approaches. The major conclusions are: (a) the global cost of the Kyoto Protocol is $716 billion in present value, (b) the United States bears almost two-thirds of the global cost;and (c) the benefit-cost ratio of the Kyoto Protocol is 1/7. Additionally, the emissions strategy is highly cost-ineffective, with the global temperature reduction achieved at a cost almost 8 times the cost of a strategy …

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Estate Taxes, Life Insurance, And Small Business, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, John W. Phillips, Harvey S. Rosen Oct 1998

Estate Taxes, Life Insurance, And Small Business, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, John W. Phillips, Harvey S. Rosen

Center for Policy Research

One criticism of the estate tax is that it prevents the owners of family businesses from passing their enterprises onto their children. The problem is that it may be difficult to pay estate taxes without liquidating the business. A natural question is why individuals with such concerns do not purchase enough life insurance to meet their estate tax liabilities. This paper examines whether and how people use life insurance to deal with the estate tax. We find that, other things being the same, business owners purchase more life insurance than other individuals. However, on the margin, their insurance purchases are …

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