Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, Vol. 26, No. 1, King Banaian, Mana Komai Molle

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

Area employment is expected to experience only a normal seasonal increase through mid-year. Survey results were slightly better than the most recent quarter. Significant pressures exist to increase wages, and in some cases firms did not think they could raise prices as well. Firms were evenly split between thinking affordable childcare and workforce housing were the most needed policies to address workforce needs.

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, Vol. 25, No. 4, King Banaian, Mana Komai Molle

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

Businesses reported worsening economic conditions in the last three months of 2023, but expressed optimism for the first half of 2024. Over the year on a seasonal basis, only 135 jobs (0.1%) were added to the economy. Four of six regional economic indicators pointed down. Only 60% of businesses surveyed reported the same operating hours as they had had in 2020; half of the remaining 40% said their hours were more flexible, while the other half decreased hours of operation. They also said one third of customers now had higher expectations of firm performance than 2020. Improvements in speed and …

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, Vol. 25, No. 3, King Banaian, Mana Komai Molle

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

Business leaders reported stronger local results in the last St. Cloud Quarterly Business Survey. 31% said their business activity expanded over the summer, while 24% said it had declined. Hiring improved, with continuing strength in wages paid, capital spending and prices received for products. The future outlook is much murkier, with 41% saying their business activity would expand over the next six months while 28% it would decline. Four of the six elements of the St. Cloud Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose in the May-July 2023 period while two others declined. Two special questions determined that employers think their …

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, Vol. 25, No. 2, King Banaian, Mana Komai Molle

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

This report found confirmation from area business leaders that a recession is at hand. 68% of our respondents thought a recession was coming when surveyed in December 2022 and still believe so six months later. Survey respondents were concerned about financial tightening resulting from disruptions in the banking industry, but very few have changed banks, and most did not see those disruptions as a significant factor in bringing about a recession.

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, Vol. 25, No. 1, King Banaian, Mana Komai

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

The St. Cloud Area recession that we predicted in last quarter’s review had not started in the first quarter of 2023. The St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Survey showed fewer respondents reporting a decrease in their own business activity over the last three months, and more were positive about the next six months, than had responded in November 2022. The St. Cloud Index of Leading Economic Indicators ticked up slightly in the last quarter, with only 3 of 6 indicators contributing positively to the index. In special questions, one-third of respondents said job turnover in 2022 was greater than in …

School Of Public Affairs 2022 Annual Report, Danae Swanson

School of Public Affairs Annual Reports

Onwards to our second decade!

The School of Public Affairs’ annual report presents a magazine-style look back at the school’s year. Contents include the stories and accomplishments of current students, alumni, faculty, and other community partnerships. It also celebrates the generous giving of donors. A limited amount of print copies are produced and mailed to constituents. Support and collaboration of the annual report is regularly given by University Communications, the St. Cloud State University Foundation, St. Cloud State University Alumni Relations, University Archives, and the Departments of Criminal Justice, Economics, Geography & Planning, and Political Science.

Note: The School of …

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, Vol. 24, No. 3, King Banaian, Mana Komai

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

Drs. King Banaian and Mana Komai Molle discussed the strong employment situation in the St. Cloud MSA, led by the construction sector. The St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Survey showed weaker business activity in the last three months, and business leaders expect less growth in the next six months. There was a sharp difference of opinion among them about whether we were in a recession or soon entering on. In response to higher input prices, a majority believe those can be passed onto consumers, but a significant number reported smaller profit margins.

Embedding Rational Expectations In A Structural Var: Internal And External Instruments For Set Identification, Zhengyang Chen, Victor Valcarcel

Economics Faculty Working Papers

We propose a novel approach that embeds Rational Expectations (RE) into a low-dimensional structural vector autoregression (SVAR). We establish an instrumental variable procedure internal to the SVAR founded on a purely theoretical framework, which does not rely on any mapping strategy to a reduced form. Alternatively, a separate strategy considers data external to the SVAR to aid in the identification of structural shocks on a purely empirical basis. We report clouds of responses from a RE-consistent theoretical model as well as regions of plausible responses from the empirical approach. We conclude that a Taylor Rule characterization of monetary policy shocks …

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, Vol. 24, No. 2, King Banaian, Mana Komai

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

St. Cloud area unemployment reached its lowest point since measurement began in 1990, registering at 1.8% in April 2022. Area economic growth was very strong in the months leading out of the Omicron wave of the pandemic, with a majority of survey respondents reporting higher business activity in the February to April period. Over 70% reported paying higher wages and charging higher prices for their goods and services. 5 of 6 leading indicators were positive. In special questions, more than 70% of surveyed businesses did not lay off workers but of those that did a majority did not return many …

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, Vol. 24, No. 1, Richard A. Macdonald, King Banaian

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

As the pandemic subsides, the new year has ushered in a long awaited broad-based area economic expansion. Virtually all sectors of the area economy experienced employment growth as the area added more than 3,600 jobs over the year ending January 2022. Firms’ future outlook remains very strong, but is clouded by accelerating inflation (and accompanying wage pressures) and persistent labor shortages.

Data released by the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED) indicate St. Cloud area employment increased 3.6% over the twelve months ending January 2022 (but is still 3,144 below its pre-pandemic level two years ago). Local job …

School Of Public Affairs 2021 Annual Report, Danae Swanson

School of Public Affairs Annual Reports

We are celebrating our first 10 years!

The School of Public Affairs’ annual report presents a magazine-style look back at the school’s year. Contents include the stories and accomplishments of current students, alumni, faculty, and other community partnerships. It also celebrates the generous giving of donors. A limited amount of print copies are produced and mailed to constituents. Support and collaboration of the annual report is regularly given by University Communications, the St. Cloud State University Foundation, St. Cloud State University Alumni Relations, University Archives, and the Departments of Criminal Justice, Economics, Geography & Planning, and Political Science.

Note: The …

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, Vol. 23, No. 4, King Banaian, Richard A. Macdonald

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

The economic recovery from the unrelenting COVID shock continues in the St. Cloud area as firms report an optimistic future outlook and employment grows. However, underlying this optimism are increases in wages, prices, capital expenditures, and worker shortages that may prove unsustainable in a post-COVID economy. Strong future optimism by surveyed firms is restrained by the reality that monetary and fiscal stimulus is abating perhaps faster than the pandemic.

Data released by the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED) indicate St. Cloud area employment increased 2% over the twelve months ending October 2021, but still 4,493 (4%) below …

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, Vol. 23, No. 3, King Banaian, Richard A. Macdonald

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

St. Cloud area economic recovery has begun as year-over-year regional employment has grown and surveyed local firms project strong business activity. While the pandemic appears to have created scars in the local economy that plague some of our local service sectors, many area firms continue to report challenges that are typically associated with rapid expansion—labor shortages, price increases, accelerating wage growth, etc. Data released by the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED) indicate St. Cloud area employment increased 4.3 percent over the twelve months ending July 2021. However, employment in the Stearns-Benton Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is still …

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, Vol. 23, No. 2, King Banaian, Richard Macdonald

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

The St. Cloud area economy is poised to exit recession as a variety of indicators suggest a broad-based recovery is on the horizon. While year-over-year data comparisons are now complicated by the historic decline in economic activity that occurred twelve months ago, there are signs that the pace of local economic activity continues to improve for many area firms. The pandemic has created scars in the local economy that will likely persist for months and years to come, but many area firms now seem to be experiencing challenges that are typically associated with rapid expansion—labor shortages, price increases, accelerating wage …

St. Cloud Metro Area Visitor Profile & Economic Impact Final Report Summer 2019-Winter 2020, Kristy Modrow, Brigid Tuck, Pengyu Qian, Hungchih Yu, Andrea Haataja

St. Cloud Metro Area Visitor Profile Study

This report is a summation of results from fall summer 2019, fall 2019, and winter 2020 St. Cloud Metro Area Visitor Profile Surveys.

In 2019, the St. Cloud City Hall, St. Cloud Area Convention and Visitor Bureau, and Retired and Senior Volunteer Program (RSVP) contracted with St. Cloud State University School of Public Affairs, Geography & Planning Department, and the Hospitality and Tourism Program to conduct a visitor profile survey from summer 2019 to spring 2020. Spring 2020 area events and airport travel were suspended due to COVID-19, thus concluding the study. Therefore, the fourth seasonal report could not be …

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, Vol. 23, No. 1, King Banaian, Richard Macdonald

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

Revised data released by the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED) indicate St. Cloud area employment declined 6.5 percent over the twelve months ending January 2021. Area employment was 7,097 lower than one year earlier as the local recession continues into its second year. The pandemic has adversely affected nearly all local sectors—only the local construction center has experienced job growth over the past year. Ninety percent of the impact was felt in approximately one-half of area employment. For example, employment in the local leisure & hospitality sector was one-third lower over the past twelve months and the …

School Of Public Affairs 2020 Annual Report, Danae Swanson

School of Public Affairs Annual Reports

The School of Public Affairs’ annual report presents a magazine-style look back at the school’s year. Contents include the stories and accomplishments of current students, alumni, faculty, and other community partnerships. It also celebrates the generous giving of donors. A limited amount of print copies are produced and mailed to constituents. Support and collaboration of the annual report is regularly given by University Communications, the St. Cloud State University Foundation, St. Cloud State University Alumni Relations, University Archives, and the Departments of Criminal Justice, Economics, Geography & Planning, and Political Science.

Note: The School of Public Affairs annual report evolved …

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, Vol. 22, No. 4, King Banaian, Richard Macdonald

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

The St. Cloud area economy remains in recession as the uneven effects of the COVID-19 pandemic continue to plague the local labor market. While some local sectors are experiencing uninterrupted strong growth, the virus’ impact on the leisure/hospitality and other services sectors is creating historic existential challenges for some area firms. Overall local employment was 3.4 percent lower in October 2020 than it was one year earlier, but this is a clear improvement from what was seen in the June St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report (at which time an 11.5 percent year-over-year decline in area employment was reported). The …

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, Vol. 22, No. 3, King Banaian, Richard Macdonald

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

While some sectors of the local economy continue to be devastated by the COVID-19 pandemic, many area firms are now beginning to recuperate from this spring’s shockwaves. Overall local employment was 3.1 percent lower in July 2020 than it was one year earlier, but this is a clear improvement from what was seen in last quarter’s St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report (at which time we reported an 11.5 percent year-over-year decline in area employment). In addition, published job losses in the Twin Cities (and across the state) are considerably worse than what is seen locally. For example, Twin Cities …

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, Vol. 22, No. 2, King Banaian, Richard Macdonald

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

Events associated with the COVID-19 pandemic have driven the local economy into recession. As has been seen throughout the U.S. (and the world), the temporary closing of many area businesses has caused an economic shock that has torn through the entire economy. Nearly all data measures have turned south as the human toll of the coronavirus has extended beyond deaths and hospitalizations to unemployment, business closures, and uncertainty that spans virtually all sectors of the regional economy. St. Cloud area employment contracted 11.5 percent in April 2020 compared to one year earlier. All sectors of the local economy shed jobs, …

The Impact Of Interest Rate Changes By Federal Reserve On Turkey, King Banaian, Mustafa Goktug Kaya, Orhan Kemal Kaplan

Economics Faculty Publications

Central banks play an important role in the direction of capital flows through the interest rate channel. Capital flows also impact the exchange rate, which are important goals of monetary policy. Due to the prominence of the U.S. Dollar in international trade, decisions made by the Federal Reserve Bank (FED) also affect the decisions of Central Banks of other countries. During the 2008 financial crisis the FED reached the zero-bound of its policy rate (the federal funds rate) and engaged in quantitative easing. This lead to capital outflows from developing countries, who then raised interest rates defensively to protect their …

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report Vol. 22, No. 1, King Banaian, Richard Macdonald

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

The St. Cloud area economic outlook is clouded by the uncertain impact of the spread of COVID-19 on the local economy.

While traditional data measures suggest overall economic fundamentals in the region remain solid, there is considerable risk of plunging into significant negative territory over the duration of the coronavirus crisis.

Much of the data analyzed in this report are from January (which is the most recently available labor market data from the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development) and survey results were collected from February 20-March 13, before Gov. Walz's order to close restaurants, theaters and other leisure …

School Of Public Affairs 2019 Annual Report, Danae Swanson

School of Public Affairs Annual Reports

The School of Public Affairs’ annual report presents a magazine-style look back at the school’s year. Contents include the stories and accomplishments of current students, alumni, faculty, and other community partnerships. It also celebrates the generous giving of donors. A limited amount of print copies are produced and mailed to constituents. Support and collaboration of the annual report is regularly given by University Communications, the St. Cloud State University Foundation, St. Cloud State University Alumni Relations, University Archives, and the Departments of Criminal Justice, Economics, Geography & Planning, and Political Science.

Note: The School of Public Affairs annual report evolved …

Spring 2020 Economics Newsletter, Department Of Economics

Economics Newsletter

No abstract provided.

St. Cloud Metro Area Visitor Profile & Economic Impact Report Winter Season 2020, Alvin Hungchih Yu, Brigid Tuck, Pengyu Qian, Kristy Modrow, Andrea Haataja

St. Cloud Metro Area Visitor Profile Study

This report is a compilation of results from the winter 2020 St. Cloud Metro Area Visitor Profile Survey.

In 2019, the St. Cloud City Hall, St. Cloud Area Convention and Visitor Bureau, and Retired and Senior Volunteer Program (RSVP) contracted with St. Cloud State University School of Public Affairs, Geography & Planning Department, and the Hospitality and Tourism Program to conduct a visitor profile survey from summer 2019 to spring 2020.

The purpose of this project was to better understand visitor's travel experience in the St. Cloud Metro area and to profile visitors based on their characteristics. The findings of …

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report Vol. 21 No. 4, King Banaian, Richard A. Macdonald

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

St. Cloud-area employment rose 0.7% over the year ending October 2019. This job growth represents an increase in 780 area jobs over the past 12 months. The recent increase in employment is coincidentally of similar size as the loss of jobs that occurred when Electrolux closed its St. Cloud production facility at the beginning of November. This means recent local employment growth could be reversed when the November jobs numbers are released by the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development in mid-December.

St. Cloud once again outperformed both the state and Twin Cities in job growth over the past …

St. Cloud Metro Area Visitor Profile & Economic Impact Report Fall Season 2019, Alvin Hungchih Yu, Brigid Tuck, Pengyu Qian, Kristy Modrow, Andrea Haataja

St. Cloud Metro Area Visitor Profile Study

This report is a compilation of results from the fall 2019 St. Cloud Metro Area Visitor Profile Survey.

In 2019, the St. Cloud City Hall, St. Cloud Area Convention and Visitor Bureau, and Retired and Senior Volunteer Program (RSVP) contracted with St. Cloud State University School of Public Affairs, Geography & Planning Department, and the Hospitality and Tourism Program to conduct a visitor profile survey from summer 2019 to spring 2020.

The purpose of this project was to better understand visitor's travel experience in the St. Cloud Metro area and to profile visitors based on their characteristics. The findings of …

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report Vol. 21 No. 3, King Banaian, Richard Macdonald

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

Employment continued to rise in the St. Cloud area in recent months, but survey responses from area business leaders and other data measures point to slower future local economic growth. The slower growth will be further aggravated by the November closure of Electrolux, which in January 2018 employed 860 workers (representing about 0.8% of total area employment).

With year over year job growth of 1.5%, St. Cloud once again outperformed both the state and Twin Cities in job creation in July. The construction, manufacturing, transportation/warehousing/utilities, educational/health and financial activities sectors of the local economy led the way in employment gains, …

St. Cloud Metro Area Visitor Profile & Economic Impact Report Summer Season 2019, Hungchih Yu, Brigid Tuck, Pengyu Qian, Kristy Modrow, Andrea Haataja

St. Cloud Metro Area Visitor Profile Study

This report is a compilation of results from the summer 2019 St. Cloud Metro Area Visitor Profile Survey.

In 2019, the St. Cloud City Hall, St. Cloud Area Convention and Visitor Bureau, and Retired and Senior Volunteer Program (RSVP) contracted with St. Cloud State University School of Public Affairs, Geography & Planning Department, and the Hospitality and Tourism Program to conduct a visitor profile survey from summer 2019 to spring 2020.

The purpose of this project was to better understand visitor's travel experience in the St. Cloud Metro area and to profile visitors based on their characteristics. The findings of …

Central Minnesota Economic And Business Conditions Report Third Quarter 2018, King Banaian, Richard Macdonald

Central Minnesota Economic and Business Conditions Report

Continued steady economic growth is expected in the Central Minnesota planning area over the next several months according to predictions of the Central Minnesota Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI). The leading index rose by 0.72 points in the most recent period, with three components producing positive readings. Increased St. Cloud area residential building permits and higher national durable goods orders had the greatest favorable impact on the leading index in the third quarter. A downturn in the Minnesota Business Conditions Index had the largest negative effect on the LEI.

There were 1,432 new business filings with the Office of …