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Articles 31 - 60 of 84
Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
How The Mindless Growth Mantra Of Modern Economics Is Failing Us, Singapore Management University
How The Mindless Growth Mantra Of Modern Economics Is Failing Us, Singapore Management University
Perspectives@SMU
Just three years after the 2008 global financial crisis, the world wonders, yet again, if another global downturn might be looming.
Money, Bargaining, And Risk Sharing, Nicolas L. Jacquet, Serene Tan
Money, Bargaining, And Risk Sharing, Nicolas L. Jacquet, Serene Tan
Research Collection School Of Economics
We investigate the dual role of money as a self-insurance device and a means of payment when perfect risk sharing is not possible, and when the two roles of money are disentangled. We use a variant of Lagos–Wright (2005) where agents face a risk in the centralized market (CM): in the decentralized market (DM) money’s main role is as a means of payment, while in the CM it is as a self-insurance device. We show that state-contingent inflation rates can improve agents’ ability to self-insure in the CM, thereby improving the terms of trade in the DM. We then characterize …
The Wto Trade Effect, Pao Li Chang, Myoung-Jae Lee
The Wto Trade Effect, Pao Li Chang, Myoung-Jae Lee
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper re-examines the GATT/WTO membership effect on bilateral trade flows, using nonparametric methods including pair-matching, permutation tests, and a Rosenbaum (2002) sensitivity analysis. Together, these methods provide an estimation framework that is robust to misspecification bias, allows general forms of heterogeneous membership effects, and addresses potential hidden selection bias. This is in contrast to most conventional parametric studies on this issue. Our results suggest large GATT/WTO trade-promoting effects that are robust to various restricted matching criteria, alternative GATT/WTO indicators, non-random incidence of positive trade flows, inclusion of multilateral resistance terms, and different matching methodologies.
Risk And The Technology Content Of Fdi: A Dynamic Model, Pao Li Chang, Chia-Hui Lu
Risk And The Technology Content Of Fdi: A Dynamic Model, Pao Li Chang, Chia-Hui Lu
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper incorporates risk into the FDI decisions of firms. The risk of FDI failure increases with the gap between the South's technology frontier and the technology complexity of a firm's product. This leads to a double-crossing sorting pattern of FDI firms of intermediate technology levels are more likely than others to undertake FDI. It is with the attempt to relax the upper bound of the technology content of FDI, we argue, that many FDI policies are created. The theory's predictions are consistent with the empirical pattern of FDI in China by US and Taiwanese manufacturing firms.
Testing For Multiple Bubbles, Peter C. B. Phillips, Shu-Ping Shi, Jun Yu
Testing For Multiple Bubbles, Peter C. B. Phillips, Shu-Ping Shi, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
Identifying explosive bubbles that are characterized by periodically collapsing behavior over time has been a major concern in the literature and is of great importance for practitioners. The complexity of the nonlinear structure in multiple bubble phenomena diminishes the discriminatory power of existing tests, as evidenced in early simulations conducted by Evans (1991). Multiple collapsing bubble episodes within the same sample period make bubble diagnosis particularly difficult and complicate attempts at econometric dating. The present paper systematically investigates these issues and develops new procedures for practical implementation and surveillance strategies by central banks. We show how the testing procedure and …
Bayesian Hypothesis Testing In Latent Variable Models, Yong Li, Jun Yu
Bayesian Hypothesis Testing In Latent Variable Models, Yong Li, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
Hypothesis testing using Bayes factors (BFs) is known not to be well defined under the improper prior. In the context of latent variable models, an additional problem with BFs is that they are difficult to compute. In this paper, a new Bayesian method, based on decision theory and the EM algorithm, is introduced to test a point hypothesis in latent variable models. The new statistic is a by-product of the Bayesian MCMC output and, hence, easy to compute. It is shown that the new statistic is easy to interpret and appropriately defined under improper priors because the method employs a …
The Singapore Town-Hall Meeting, Tan K. B. Eugene
The Singapore Town-Hall Meeting, Tan K. B. Eugene
Research Collection Yong Pung How School Of Law
Professor Eugene Tan forecasts what the Prime Minister might say in his National Day Rally speech. He predicts it will touch on the ecomomy, Presidential election and social cohesion, among other issues.
Labor Supply Responses To The 1990s Japanese Tax Reforms, Ken Yamada
Labor Supply Responses To The 1990s Japanese Tax Reforms, Ken Yamada
Research Collection School Of Economics
The consumption-leisure choice model implies that an exogenous change in tax rates will induce a change in labor supply. This implication is expected to be important to labor supplied by secondary earners under a progressive tax system when spousal income alters effective marginal tax rates. This paper examines labor supply responses to the income tax changes associated with Japanese tax reforms during the 1990s. The results indicate that the hours-of-work elasticity with respect to the net-of-tax rate is 0.8 for married women.
Specification Sensitivities In Right-Tailed Unit Root Testing, Shu-Ping Shi, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu
Specification Sensitivities In Right-Tailed Unit Root Testing, Shu-Ping Shi, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
Right-tailed unit root tests have proved promising for detecting exuberance in economic and financial activities. Like left-tailed tests, the limit theory and test performance are sensitive to the null hypothesis and the model specification used in parameter estimation. This paper aims to provide some empirical guidelines for the practical implementation of right-tailed unit root tests, focusing on the sup ADF test of Phillips, Wu and Yu (2011), which implements a right-tailed ADF test repeatedly on a sequence of forward sample recursions. We analyze and compare the limit theory of the sup ADF test under different hypotheses and model specifications. The …
Simulated Maximum Likelihood Estimation For Latent Diffusion Models, Tore Selland Kleppe, Jun Yu, Hans J. Skaug
Simulated Maximum Likelihood Estimation For Latent Diffusion Models, Tore Selland Kleppe, Jun Yu, Hans J. Skaug
Research Collection School Of Economics
In this paper a method is developed and implemented to provide the simulated maximum likelihood estimation of latent diffusions based on discrete data. The method is applicable to diffusions that either have latent elements in the state vector or are only observed at discrete time with a noise. Latent diffusions are very important in practical applications in financial economics. The proposed approach synthesizes the closed form method of Ait-Sahalia (2008) and the efficient importance sampler of Richard and Zhang (2007). It does not require any infill observations to be introduced and hence is computationally tractable. The Monte Carlo study shows …
Grey Market For Indian Ipos: Investor Sentiment And After-Market Performance, Chandrasekhar Krishnamurti, Tiong Yang Thong, Vishwanath Ramanna
Grey Market For Indian Ipos: Investor Sentiment And After-Market Performance, Chandrasekhar Krishnamurti, Tiong Yang Thong, Vishwanath Ramanna
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Extant research on developed markets shows that investor sentiment is a prominent feature in IPO grey markets. There is sparse work in the context of emerging markets. We fill this lacuna by studying the working of the Indian IPO market. We consider this work interesting and relevant for the following reasons. First, grey market trading always involves short-selling as securities are not yet available. Since legal and institutional environment is less developed in emerging markets, the functioning of grey markets is of interest to policy makers and financial economists. Second, retail investors participate to a greater extent in IPOs of …
Sme Inc: Corporate Success And Social Good, Paul Lim, Brendan Barrett, Nils Steinbrecher, Tomoki Fujii, Ted Tschang, Lieven Demeester
Sme Inc: Corporate Success And Social Good, Paul Lim, Brendan Barrett, Nils Steinbrecher, Tomoki Fujii, Ted Tschang, Lieven Demeester
Research Collection School Of Economics
Panel of experts share their views ranging from the definition of sustainable business to how governments should lead by example.
Crowding-Out Effect Of The Current Food Stamp Subsidy Scheme, Yi Zhang
Crowding-Out Effect Of The Current Food Stamp Subsidy Scheme, Yi Zhang
Research Collection School Of Economics
We construct a model to illustrate that the current food stamp subsidy scheme fails to achieve its stated aim due to the crowding-out effect. More specifically, if the household income is sufficiently low, only a corner solution exists, and a full subsidy is needed.
Growth, Opportunity, And Inequality: Some Empirics From Singapore, Kong Weng Ho
Growth, Opportunity, And Inequality: Some Empirics From Singapore, Kong Weng Ho
Research Collection School Of Economics
While the strategy of openness had earned Singapore rapid economic growth, upward social mobility, and possibly decreasing inequality in the early years of development, the more recent years has seen increasing inequality. With this inequality comes an underlying possibly diminished upward inter-generational mobility, due to skill-biased growth processes, skill-biased parental influence, liberalisation in the education industry, and structural changes in the society, which hurt the human capital accumulation of children in families under economic and intra-household stresses. In particular, paternal influence on educational aspirations and attainment is more pronounced than maternal influence. Non-Chinese and youths from disrupted families are worse …
Quenching Thirst Through Policy And Planning, Knowledge@Smu
Quenching Thirst Through Policy And Planning, Knowledge@Smu
Knowledge@SMU
Water is fundamental to human survival. Yet, for many people in the world, clean water may not necessarily come as easy as simply turning the tap. It is estimated that some 20 percent of the world's population do not have access to water – a reality not perpetuated by a lack of water, but rather, ineffective policies and politicians. Speaking at a SMU Social Sciences seminar, Eduardo Araral shares the story of how a city overcame the odds to supply clean water to its masses.
The Implications Of Sovereign Wealth Fund Investment On Capital Markets: A Bottom-Up View, David Fernandez
The Implications Of Sovereign Wealth Fund Investment On Capital Markets: A Bottom-Up View, David Fernandez
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
The buzz around sovereign wealth funds has been turned down a notch, but they remain a hot topic. The accusations of sovereign wealth funds having hidden agendas remain, but with the very public losses suffered by some during the recent financial turmoil, such talk has even less credibility. And given that most of those losses were from investments in US, UK, and European financial institutions, hope that sovereign wealth funds would be the saviors of Wall Street has also faded. At its base, four trends continue to keep sovereign wealth funds in focus. First, there is the phenomenal rise of …
Preferences, Prisoners And Private Information: Was Socrates Rational At His Trial?, Brishti Guha
Preferences, Prisoners And Private Information: Was Socrates Rational At His Trial?, Brishti Guha
Research Collection School Of Economics
Using concepts from game theory, political economy, law and economics and the economics of asymmetric information, we describe the economics of one of the most famous trials in history—that of the Athenian philosopher Socrates. We discuss the question of whether Socrates’ actions during his trial were rational, using two different models. Our analysis sheds some light on institutional efficiency in trials that followed the classical Athenian pattern.
The Use Of Role-Player Prompts In Assessment Center Exercises, Eveline Schollaert, Filip Lievens
The Use Of Role-Player Prompts In Assessment Center Exercises, Eveline Schollaert, Filip Lievens
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
So far, a substantial amount of assessment center (AC) studies have aimed to improve the quality of the AC method by focusing on the assessors. However, systematic studies about the role-player in AC exercises are nonexistent. This is surprising as the role-player might serve as a key figure for consistently evoking job-relevant behavior across candidates. Therefore, this study focused on the 'role' of role-players in ACs. We examined the effects of instructing role-players to use prompts among 233 candidates. Results suggest that role-players are able to use prompts and that their negative impact on candidates' reactions is negligible. In addition, …
Recent Developments In European Bank Competition, Juliana Yu Sun
Recent Developments In European Bank Competition, Juliana Yu Sun
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper investigates the degree of bank competition in the euro area, the U.S. and U.K. before and after the recent financial crisis, and revisits the issue whether the introduction of EMU and the euro have had any impact on bank competition. The results suggest that the level of bank competition converged across euro area countries in the wake of the EMU. The recent global financial crisis led to a fall in competition in several countries and especially where large credit and housing booms had preceded the crisis...
Pirates And Traders: Some Economics Of Pirate-Infested Seas, Brishti Guha, Ashok S. Guha
Pirates And Traders: Some Economics Of Pirate-Infested Seas, Brishti Guha, Ashok S. Guha
Research Collection School Of Economics
Even where all agents are risk-neutral, merchants can insure themselves against piracy. Such self-insurance is surprisingly invulnerable to moral hazard. Further, there exist a patrolling intensity and/or penalties for captured pirates which, along with mercantile self-insurance, could eliminate piracy.
Wp Chen's Criticizing Policy That Benefited Him, Augustine H. H. Tan
Wp Chen's Criticizing Policy That Benefited Him, Augustine H. H. Tan
Research Collection School Of Economics
Mr Chen Show Mao of the Workers' Party lamented in his speech recently that wages in Singapore are not increasing as fast as the country's gross domestic product growth, highlighting that most of the growth went to corporate profits and wage income for top earners.
Warning System For Property Bubbles, Jun Yu, Peter C. B. Phillips
Warning System For Property Bubbles, Jun Yu, Peter C. B. Phillips
Research Collection School Of Economics
A commentary on what constitutes a sound system to warn against property bubbles.
Instrumental Variable Quantile Estimation Of Spatial Autoregressive Models, Liangjun Su, Zhenlin Yang
Instrumental Variable Quantile Estimation Of Spatial Autoregressive Models, Liangjun Su, Zhenlin Yang
Research Collection School Of Economics
We propose a spatial quantile autoregression (SQAR) model, which allows cross-sectional dependence among the responses, unknown heteroscedasticity in the disturbances, and heterogeneous impacts of covariates on different points (quantiles) of a response distribution. The instrumental variable quantile regression (IVQR) method of Chernozhukov and Hansen (2006) is generalized to allow the data to be non-identically distributed and dependent, an IVQR estimator for the SQAR model is then defined, and its asymptotic properties are derived. Simulation results show that this estimator performs well in finite samples at various quantile points. In the special case of spatial median regression, it outperforms the conventional …
Dangerous To Draw Down Reserves, Augustine H. H. Tan
Dangerous To Draw Down Reserves, Augustine H. H. Tan
Research Collection School Of Economics
As at the end of last year, our official reserves stood at $288 billion compared to a gross domestic product of $304 billion and bank deposits (domestic bank units or DBU) of $781 billion. In the event of a financial meltdown, the reserves would be far too small to bail out our banks. During the recent global financial crisis I was very anxious for Singapore when the Monetary Authority of Singapore announced a guarantee (until end last year) for all our DBU deposits of up to $150 billion.
Innovation And Employment, Hian Teck Hoon, Edmund S. Phelps
Innovation And Employment, Hian Teck Hoon, Edmund S. Phelps
Research Collection School of Economics
Is employment higher in an economy that has a higher rate of innovation? In Hoon and Phelps (1997), we study this question in the small open, and closed, economy under the assumption that the rate of technological progress is exogenous to the economic system.In this paper, we reexamine this question in the context of a model with endogenous product innovation (and thus endogenous technological progress) and endogenous labor supply first in a small open economy taking the world interest rate as given and then ina closed economy that determines the whole term structure of the interest rate. In our present …
Bias In Estimating Multivariate And Univariate Diffusions, Xiaohu Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu
Bias In Estimating Multivariate And Univariate Diffusions, Xiaohu Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
Multivariate continuous time models are now widely used in economics and finance. Empirical applications typically rely on some process of discretization so that the system may be estimated with discrete data. This paper introduces a framework for discretizing linear multivariate continuous time systems that includes the commonly used Euler and trapezoidal approximations as special cases and leads to a general class of estimators for the mean reversion matrix. Asymptotic distributions and bias formulae are obtained for estimates of the mean reversion parameter. Explicit expressions are given for the discretization bias and its relationship to estimation bias in both multivariate and …
Why It's Vital To Keep Manufacturing Alive, Augustine H. H. Tan
Why It's Vital To Keep Manufacturing Alive, Augustine H. H. Tan
Research Collection School Of Economics
Augustine Tan responds to Singapore Democratic Party candidate Tan Jee Say's online article.
Warning Signs Of Future Asset Bubbles, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu
Warning Signs Of Future Asset Bubbles, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
Values Survey, we find that individuals with higher levels of schooling, but whose income
Asymptotic Theory For Zero Energy Functionals With Nonparametric Regression Applications, Qiying Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips
Asymptotic Theory For Zero Energy Functionals With Nonparametric Regression Applications, Qiying Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips
Research Collection School Of Economics
A local limit theorem is given for the sample mean of a zero energy function of a nonstationary time series involving twin numerical sequences that pass to infinity. The result is applicable in certain nonparametric kernel density estimation and regression problems where the relevant quantities are functions of both sample size and bandwidth. An interesting outcome of the theory in nonparametric regression is that the linear term is eliminated from the asymptotic bias. In consequence and in contrast to the stationary case, the Nadaraya-Watson estimator has the same limit distribution (to the second order including bias) as the local linear …
Infinite Density At The Median And The Typical Shape Of Stock Return Distributions, Chirok Han, Jin Seo Cho, Peter C. B. Phillips
Infinite Density At The Median And The Typical Shape Of Stock Return Distributions, Chirok Han, Jin Seo Cho, Peter C. B. Phillips
Research Collection School Of Economics
Statistics are developed to test for the presence of an asymptotic discontinuity (or infinite density or peakedness) in a probability density at the median. The approach makes use of work by Knight (1998) on L(1) estimation asymptotics in conjunction with nonparametric kernel density estimation methods. The size and power of the tests are assessed, and conditions under which the tests have good performance are explored in simulations. The new methods are applied to stock returns of leading companies across major U.S. industry groups. The results confirm the presence of infinite density at the median as a new significant empirical evidence …