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Full-Text Articles in Statistics and Probability
Data Adaptive Estimation Of The Treatment Specific Mean, Yue Wang, Oliver Bembom, Mark J. Van Der Laan
Data Adaptive Estimation Of The Treatment Specific Mean, Yue Wang, Oliver Bembom, Mark J. Van Der Laan
U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series
An important problem in epidemiology and medical research is the estimation of the causal effect of a treatment action at a single point in time on the mean of an outcome, possibly within strata of the target population defined by a subset of the baseline covariates. Current approaches to this problem are based on marginal structural models, i.e., parametric models for the marginal distribution of counterfactural outcomes as a function of treatment and effect modifiers. The various estimators developed in this context furthermore each depend on a high-dimensional nuisance parameter whose estimation currently also relies on parametric models. Since misspecification …
Loss-Based Cross-Validated Deletion/Substitution/Addition Algorithms In Estimation, Sandra E. Sinisi, Mark J. Van Der Laan
Loss-Based Cross-Validated Deletion/Substitution/Addition Algorithms In Estimation, Sandra E. Sinisi, Mark J. Van Der Laan
U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series
In van der Laan and Dudoit (2003) we propose and theoretically study a unified loss function based statistical methodology, which provides a road map for estimation and performance assessment. Given a parameter of interest which can be described as the minimizer of the population mean of a loss function, the road map involves as important ingredients cross-validation for estimator selection and minimizing over subsets of basis functions the empirical risk of the subset-specific estimator of the parameter of interest, where the basis functions correspond to a parameterization of a specified subspace of the complete parameter space. In this article we …
The Cross-Validated Adaptive Epsilon-Net Estimator, Mark J. Van Der Laan, Sandrine Dudoit, Aad W. Van Der Vaart
The Cross-Validated Adaptive Epsilon-Net Estimator, Mark J. Van Der Laan, Sandrine Dudoit, Aad W. Van Der Vaart
U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series
Suppose that we observe a sample of independent and identically distributed realizations of a random variable. Assume that the parameter of interest can be defined as the minimizer, over a suitably defined parameter space, of the expectation (with respect to the distribution of the random variable) of a particular (loss) function of a candidate parameter value and the random variable. Examples of commonly used loss functions are the squared error loss function in regression and the negative log-density loss function in density estimation. Minimizing the empirical risk (i.e., the empirical mean of the loss function) over the entire parameter space …
Loss-Based Estimation With Cross-Validation: Applications To Microarray Data Analysis And Motif Finding, Sandrine Dudoit, Mark J. Van Der Laan, Sunduz Keles, Annette M. Molinaro, Sandra E. Sinisi, Siew Leng Teng
Loss-Based Estimation With Cross-Validation: Applications To Microarray Data Analysis And Motif Finding, Sandrine Dudoit, Mark J. Van Der Laan, Sunduz Keles, Annette M. Molinaro, Sandra E. Sinisi, Siew Leng Teng
U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series
Current statistical inference problems in genomic data analysis involve parameter estimation for high-dimensional multivariate distributions, with typically unknown and intricate correlation patterns among variables. Addressing these inference questions satisfactorily requires: (i) an intensive and thorough search of the parameter space to generate good candidate estimators, (ii) an approach for selecting an optimal estimator among these candidates, and (iii) a method for reliably assessing the performance of the resulting estimator. We propose a unified loss-based methodology for estimator construction, selection, and performance assessment with cross-validation. In this approach, the parameter of interest is defined as the risk minimizer for a suitable …
Tree-Based Multivariate Regression And Density Estimation With Right-Censored Data , Annette M. Molinaro, Sandrine Dudoit, Mark J. Van Der Laan
Tree-Based Multivariate Regression And Density Estimation With Right-Censored Data , Annette M. Molinaro, Sandrine Dudoit, Mark J. Van Der Laan
U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series
We propose a unified strategy for estimator construction, selection, and performance assessment in the presence of censoring. This approach is entirely driven by the choice of a loss function for the full (uncensored) data structure and can be stated in terms of the following three main steps. (1) Define the parameter of interest as the minimizer of the expected loss, or risk, for a full data loss function chosen to represent the desired measure of performance. Map the full data loss function into an observed (censored) data loss function having the same expected value and leading to an efficient estimator …
Asymptotics Of Cross-Validated Risk Estimation In Estimator Selection And Performance Assessment, Sandrine Dudoit, Mark J. Van Der Laan
Asymptotics Of Cross-Validated Risk Estimation In Estimator Selection And Performance Assessment, Sandrine Dudoit, Mark J. Van Der Laan
U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series
Risk estimation is an important statistical question for the purposes of selecting a good estimator (i.e., model selection) and assessing its performance (i.e., estimating generalization error). This article introduces a general framework for cross-validation and derives distributional properties of cross-validated risk estimators in the context of estimator selection and performance assessment. Arbitrary classes of estimators are considered, including density estimators and predictors for both continuous and polychotomous outcomes. Results are provided for general full data loss functions (e.g., absolute and squared error, indicator, negative log density). A broad definition of cross-validation is used in order to cover leave-one-out cross-validation, V-fold …