Statistics and Probability Commons^™

In Silico Surveillance: Evaluating Outbreak Detection With Simulation Models, Bryan Lewis, Stephen Eubank, Allyson M. Abrams, Ken Kleinman

Public Health Department Faculty Publication Series

Background

Detecting outbreaks is a crucial task for public health officials, yet gaps remain in the systematic evaluation of outbreak detection protocols. The authors’ objectives were to design, implement, and test a flexible methodology for generating detailed synthetic surveillance data that provides realistic geographical and temporal clustering of cases and use to evaluate outbreak detection protocols.

Methods

A detailed representation of the Boston area was constructed, based on data about individuals, locations, and activity patterns. Influenza-like illness (ILI) transmission was simulated, producing 100 years ofin silico ILI data. Six different surveillance systems were designed and developed using gathered cases …

Correlations Among Adiposity Measures In School-Aged Children, Caroline E. Boeke, Emily Oken, Ken P. Kleinman, Sheryl L. Rifas-Shiman, Elsie M. Taveras, Matthew W. Gillman

Public Health Department Faculty Publication Series

BACKGROUND:

Given that it is not feasible to use dual x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) or other reference methods to measure adiposity in all pediatric clinical and research settings, it is important to identify reasonable alternatives. Therefore, we sought to determine the extent to which other adiposity measures were correlated with DXA fat mass in school-aged children.

METHODS:

In 1110 children aged 6.5-10.9 years in the pre-birth cohort Project Viva, we calculated Spearman correlation coefficients between DXA (n=875) and other adiposity measures including body mass index (BMI), skinfold thickness, circumferences, and bioimpedance. We also computed correlations between lean body mass measures.

RESULTS: …

Childhood Body Mass Index Trajectories: Modeling, Characterizing, Pairwise Correlations And Socio-Demographic Predictors Of Trajectory Characteristics, Xiaozhong Wen, Ken Kleinman, Matthew W. Gillman, Sherly L. Rifas-Shiman, Elsie M. Taveras

Public Health Department Faculty Publication Series

BACKGROUND:

Modeling childhood body mass index (BMI) trajectories, versus estimating change in BMI between specific ages, may improve prediction of later body-size-related outcomes. Prior studies of BMI trajectories are limited by restricted age periods and insufficient use of trajectory information.

METHODS:

Among 3,289 children seen at 81,550 pediatric well-child visits from infancy to 18 years between 1980 and 2008, we fit individual BMI trajectories using mixed effect models with fractional polynomial functions. From each child's fitted trajectory, we estimated age and BMI at infancy peak and adiposity rebound, and velocity and area under curve between 1 week, infancy peak, adiposity …

Estimation Of Newborn Risk For Child Or Adolescent Obesity:Lessons From Longitudinal Birth Cohorts, Anita Morandi, David Meyre, Stephane Lobbens, Ken Kleinman, Marika Kaakinen, Sheryl L. Rifas-Shiman, Vincent Vatin, Stefan Gaget, Anneli Pouta, Anna-Liisa Hartikainen, Jaana Laitinen, Matthew W. Gillman, Marjo-Riitta Jarvelin, Philippe Froguel

Public Health Department Faculty Publication Series

OBJECTIVES:

Prevention of obesity should start as early as possible after birth. We aimed to build clinically useful equations estimating the risk of later obesity in newborns, as a first step towards focused early prevention against the global obesity epidemic.

METHODS:

We analyzed the lifetime Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1986 (NFBC1986) (N = 4,032) to draw predictive equations for childhood and adolescent obesity from traditional risk factors (parental BMI, birth weight, maternal gestational weight gain, behaviour and social indicators), and a genetic score built from 39 BMI/obesity-associated polymorphisms. We performed validation analyses in a retrospective cohort of 1,503 Italian children …

A Satscan Macro Accessory For Cartography (Smac) Package Implemented With Sas Software, Allyson M. Abrams, Ken P. Kleinman

Public Health Department Faculty Publication Series

BACKGROUND:

SaTScan is a software program written to implement the scan statistic; it can be used to find clusters in space and/or time. It must often be run multiple times per day when doing disease surveillance. Running SaTScan frequently via its graphical user interface can be cumbersome, and the output can be difficult to visualize.

RESULTS:

The SaTScan Macro Accessory for Cartography (SMAC) package consists of four SAS macros and was designed as an easier way to run SaTScan multiple times and add graphical output. The package contains individual macros which allow the user to make the necessary input files …

Evaluating Spatial Surveillance: Detection Of Known Outbreaks In Real Data, Ken Kleinman, Allyson Abrams, W. Katherine Yih, Richard Platt, Martin Kulldorff

Public Health Department Faculty Publication Series

Since the anthrax attacks of October 2001 and the SARS outbreaks of recent years, there has been an increasing interest in developing surveillance systems to aid in the early detection of such illness. Systems have been established which do this is by monitoring primary health-care visits, pharmacy sales, absenteeism records, and other non-traditional sources of data. While many resources have been invested in establishing such systems, relatively little effort has as yet been expended in evaluating their performance.

One way to evaluate a given surveillance system is to compare the signals it generates with known outbreaks identified in other systems. …

Variation In Hepatitis B Immunization Coverage Rates Associated With Provider Practices After The Temporary Suspension Of The Birth Dose, Nancy D. Lin, Ken Kleinman, K Arnold Chan, Xian-Jie Yu, Eric K. France, Feifei Wei, John P. Mullooly, Steven Black, David Shay, Margarette Kolczak, Tracey Lieu, Vaccine Safety Datalink Team

Public Health Department Faculty Publication Series

Background

In 1999, the American Academy of Pediatrics and U.S. Public Health Service recommended suspending the birth dose of hepatitis B vaccine due to concerns about potential mercury exposure. A previous report found that overall national hepatitis B vaccination coverage rates decreased in association with the suspension. It is unknown whether this underimmunization occurred uniformly or was associated with how providers changed their practices for the timing of hepatitis B vaccine doses. We evaluate the impact of the birth dose suspension on underimmunization for the hepatitis B vaccine series among 24-month-olds in five large provider groups and describe provider practices …

Impact Of The Introduction Of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine On Immunization Coverage Among Infants, Nancy D. Lin, Ken Kleinman, K Arnold Chan, Xian-Jie Yu, Eric K. France, Stanley Xu, Feifei Wei, John Mullooly, Jeanne Santoli, Tracey A. Lieu, Vaccine Safety Datalink Group

Public Health Department Faculty Publication Series

Background

The introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) to the U.S. recommended childhood immunization schedule in the year 2000 added three injections to the number of vaccinations a child is expected to receive during the first year of life. Surveys have suggested that the addition of PCV has led some immunization providers to move other routine childhood vaccinations to later ages, which could increase the possibility of missing these vaccines. The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether introduction of PCV affected immunization coverage for recommended childhood vaccinations among 13-month olds in four large provider groups.

Methods

In this …

Group Versus Individual Academic Detailing To Improve The Use Of Antihypertensive Medications In Primary Care: A Cluster-Randomized Controlled Trial, Steven R. Simon, Sumit R. Majumdar, Lisa A. Prosser, Susanne Salem-Schatz, Cheryl Warner, Ken Kleinman, Irina Miroshnik, Stephen B. Soumerai

Public Health Department Faculty Publication Series

Purpose

To compare group versus individual academic detailing to increase diuretic or β-blocker use in hypertension.

Methods

We conducted a cluster-randomized controlled trial in a large health maintenance organization. Subjects (N=9820) were patients with newly treated hypertension in the year preceding the intervention (N=3692), the 9 months following the intervention (N=3556), and the second year following intervention (N=2572). We randomly allocated 3 practice sites to group detailing (N=227 prescribers), 3 to individual detailing (N=235 prescribers), and 3 to usual care (N=319 prescribers). Individual detailing entailed a physician-educator meeting individually with clinicians to address barriers to prescribing guideline-recommended medications. The group …

Maternal Age And Other Predictors Of Newborn Blood Pressure, Matthew Gillman, Janet W. Rich-Edwards, Sheryl L. Rifas-Shiman, Ellice S. Lieberman, Ken Kleinman, Steven Lipshultz

Public Health Department Faculty Publication Series

Objective

To investigate perinatal predictors of newborn blood pressure.

Study design

Among 1059 mothers and their newborn infants participating in Project Viva, a US cohort study of pregnant women and their offspring, we obtained five systolic blood pressure readings on a single occasion in the first few days of life. Using multivariate linear regression models, we examined the extent to which maternal age and other pre- and perinatal factors predicted newborn blood pressure level.

Results

Mean (SD) maternal age was 32.0 (5.2) years, and mean (SD) newborn systolic blood pressure was 72.6 (9.0) mm Hg. A multivariate model showed that …

Child Care Center Policies And Practices For Management Of Ill Children, Jennifer F. Friedman, Grace M. Lee, Ken P. Kleinman, Jonathan A. Finkelstein

Public Health Department Faculty Publication Series

OBJECTIVES:

The objectives of this study were to 1) describe child care staff knowledge and beliefs regarding upper respiratory tract infections and antibiotic indications and 2) evaluate child care staff reported reasons for a) exclusion from child care, b) referral to a health care provider, and c) recommending antibiotics for an ill child.

METHODS:

A longitudinal study based in randomly selected child care centers in Massachusetts. Staff completed a survey to assess knowledge regarding common infections. For six weeks, staff completed a record of absences each day, describing the reason for an absence, and advice given to the parents regarding …

Correlates Of Parental Antibiotic Knowledge, Demand, And Reported Use, Marianne Kuzujanakis, Ken Kleinman, Sheryl Rifas-Shiman, Jonathan A. Finkelstein

Public Health Department Faculty Publication Series

Clinicians cite parental misconceptions and requests for antibiotics as reasons for inappropriate prescribing. To identify misconceptions regarding antibiotics and predictors of parental demand for antibiotics and to determine if parental knowledge and attitudes are associated with use. Survey of parents in 16 Massachusetts communities. Domains included antibiotic-related knowledge, attitudes about antibiotics, antibiotic use during a 12-month period, demographics, and access to health information. Bivariate and multivariate analyses evaluated predictors of knowledge and proclivity to demand antibiotics. A multivariate model evaluated the associations of knowledge, demand, and demographic factors with parent-reported antibiotic use. A total of 1106 surveys were returned (response …