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Full-Text Articles in Statistics and Probability

Evaluation Of Progress Towards The Unaids 90-90-90 Hiv Care Cascade: A Description Of Statistical Methods Used In An Interim Analysis Of The Intervention Communities In The Search Study, Laura Balzer, Joshua Schwab, Mark J. Van Der Laan, Maya L. Petersen Feb 2017

Evaluation Of Progress Towards The Unaids 90-90-90 Hiv Care Cascade: A Description Of Statistical Methods Used In An Interim Analysis Of The Intervention Communities In The Search Study, Laura Balzer, Joshua Schwab, Mark J. Van Der Laan, Maya L. Petersen

Laura B. Balzer

WHO guidelines call for universal antiretroviral treatment, and UNAIDS has set a global target to virally suppress most HIV-positive individuals. Accurate estimates of population-level coverage at each step of the HIV care cascade (testing, treatment, and viral suppression) are needed to assess the effectiveness of "test and treat" strategies implemented to achieve this goal. The data available to inform such estimates, however, are susceptible to informative missingness: the number of HIV-positive individuals in a population is unknown; individuals tested for HIV may not be representative of those whom a testing intervention fails to reach, and HIV-positive individuals with a viral …


Introduction To Targeted Learning, Laura Balzer Dec 2015

Introduction To Targeted Learning, Laura Balzer

Laura B. Balzer

No abstract provided.


Adaptive Pair-Matching In The Search Trial And Estimation Of The Intervention Effect, Laura Balzer, Maya L. Petersen, Mark J. Van Der Laan Jan 2014

Adaptive Pair-Matching In The Search Trial And Estimation Of The Intervention Effect, Laura Balzer, Maya L. Petersen, Mark J. Van Der Laan

Laura B. Balzer

In randomized trials, pair-matching is an intuitive design strategy to protect study validity and to potentially increase study power. In a common design, candidate units are identified, and their baseline characteristics used to create the best n/2 matched pairs. Within the resulting pairs, the intervention is randomized, and the outcomes measured at the end of follow-up. We consider this design to be adaptive, because the construction of the matched pairs depends on the baseline covariates of all candidate units. As consequence, the observed data cannot be considered as n/2 independent, identically distributed (i.i.d.) pairs of units, as current practice assumes. …


Designing The Search Trial: Ph250b In Practice, Laura Balzer Sep 2013

Designing The Search Trial: Ph250b In Practice, Laura Balzer

Laura B. Balzer

No abstract provided.


Estimating Effects On Rare Outcomes: Knowledge Is Power, Laura B. Balzer, Mark J. Van Der Laan May 2013

Estimating Effects On Rare Outcomes: Knowledge Is Power, Laura B. Balzer, Mark J. Van Der Laan

Laura B. Balzer

Many of the secondary outcomes in observational studies and randomized trials are rare. Methods for estimating causal effects and associations with rare outcomes, however, are limited, and this represents a missed opportunity for investigation. In this article, we construct a new targeted minimum loss-based estimator (TMLE) for the effect of an exposure or treatment on a rare outcome. We focus on the causal risk difference and statistical models incorporating bounds on the conditional risk of the outcome, given the exposure and covariates. By construction, the proposed estimator constrains the predicted outcomes to respect this model knowledge. Theoretically, this bounding provides …


Estimating The Impact Of Community-Level Interventions: The Search Trial And Hiv Prevention In Sub-Saharan Africa, Laura Balzer, Maya Petersen, Joshua Schwab, Mark Van Der Laan May 2012

Estimating The Impact Of Community-Level Interventions: The Search Trial And Hiv Prevention In Sub-Saharan Africa, Laura Balzer, Maya Petersen, Joshua Schwab, Mark Van Der Laan

Laura B. Balzer

Evaluation of community level interventions to prevent HIV infection presents significant methodological challenges. Even when it is feasible to randomly assign a treatment versus control level of the intervention to each community in a sample, measurement of incident HIV infection remains difficult. In this talk we describe an experimental design developed for the SEARCH Trial, a large community randomized trial that will evaluate the impact of expanded treatment on incident HIV and other outcomes. Regular community-wide testing campaigns are conducted and a random sample of community members who fail to attend a campaign are tracked. The data generated by this …


Why Match In Individually And Cluster Randomized Trials?, Laura B. Balzer, Maya L. Petersen, Mark J. Van Der Laan May 2012

Why Match In Individually And Cluster Randomized Trials?, Laura B. Balzer, Maya L. Petersen, Mark J. Van Der Laan

Laura B. Balzer

The decision to match individuals or clusters in randomized trials is motivated by both practical and statistical concerns. Matching protects against chance imbalances in baseline covariate distributions and is thought to improve study credibility. Matching is also implemented to increase study power. This article compares the asymptotic efficiency of the pair-matched design, where units are matched on baseline covariates and the treatment randomized within pairs, to the independent design, where units are randomly paired and the treatment randomized within pairs. We focus on estimating the average treatment effect and use the efficient influence curve to understand the information provided by …