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Full-Text Articles in Statistics and Probability

Season-Ahead Forecasting Of Water Storage And Irrigation Requirements – An Application To The Southwest Monsoon In India, Arun Ravindranath, Naresh Devineni, Upmanu Lall, Paulina Concha Larrauri Oct 2018

Season-Ahead Forecasting Of Water Storage And Irrigation Requirements – An Application To The Southwest Monsoon In India, Arun Ravindranath, Naresh Devineni, Upmanu Lall, Paulina Concha Larrauri

Publications and Research

Water risk management is a ubiquitous challenge faced by stakeholders in the water or agricultural sector. We present a methodological framework for forecasting water storage requirements and present an application of this methodology to risk assessment in India. The application focused on forecasting crop water stress for potatoes grown during the monsoon season in the Satara district of Maharashtra. Pre-season large-scale climate predictors used to forecast water stress were selected based on an exhaustive search method that evaluates for highest ranked probability skill score and lowest root-mean-squared error in a leave-one-out cross-validation mode. Adaptive forecasts were made in the years …


Monitoring And Evaluating The Influences Of Class V Injection Wells On Urban Karst Hydrology, James Adam Shelley Oct 2018

Monitoring And Evaluating The Influences Of Class V Injection Wells On Urban Karst Hydrology, James Adam Shelley

Masters Theses & Specialist Projects

The response of a karst aquifer to storm events is often faster and more severe than that of a non-karst aquifer. This distinction is often problematic for planners and municipalities, because karst flooding does not typically occur along perennial water courses; thus, traditional flood management strategies are usually ineffective. The City of Bowling Green (CoBG), Kentucky is a representative example of an area plagued by karst flooding. The CoBG, is an urban karst area (UKA), that uses Class V Injection Wells to lessen the severity of flooding. The overall effectiveness, siting, and flooding impact of Injection Wells in UKA’s is …


The Periglacial Landscape Of Mars: Insight Into The 'Decameter-Scale Rimmed Depressions' In Utopia Planitia, Arya Bina Aug 2018

The Periglacial Landscape Of Mars: Insight Into The 'Decameter-Scale Rimmed Depressions' In Utopia Planitia, Arya Bina

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

Currently, Mars appears to be in a ‘frozen’ and ‘dry’ state, with the clear majority of the planet’s surface maintaining year-round sub-zero temperatures. However, the discovery of features consistent with landforms found in periglacial environments on Earth, suggests a climate history for Mars that may have involved freeze and thaw cycles. Such landforms include hummocky, polygonised, scalloped, and pitted terrains, as well as ice-rich deposits and gullies, along the mid- to high-latitude bands, typically with no lower than 20o N/S. The detection of near-surface and surface ice via the Phoenix lander, excavation of ice via recent impact cratering activity as …


Predicting River Stage Using Recurrent Neural Networks, Eric Rohli Jul 2018

Predicting River Stage Using Recurrent Neural Networks, Eric Rohli

LSU Master's Theses

River stage prediction is an important problem in the water transportation industry. Accurate river stage predictions provide crucial information to barge and tow boat operators, port terminal captains, and lock management officials. Shallow river levels caused by prolonged drought impact the loading capacity of barges and tow boats. High river levels caused by excessive rainfall or snowmelt allow for greater tow capacities but make downstream transportation and lock management risky. Current academic river height prediction systems utilize either time series statistical analysis or machine learning algorithms to forecast future river heights, but systems that combine these two areas often limit …


Chemical And Statistical Analysis Of Karst Groundwater Basin Signatures - Springfield, Mo, Benjamin E. Lockwood May 2018

Chemical And Statistical Analysis Of Karst Groundwater Basin Signatures - Springfield, Mo, Benjamin E. Lockwood

MSU Graduate Theses

Springfield, MO is located on the Springfield Plateau physiographic province. The Springfield plateau contains a number of Mississippian aged units and is mainly capped by the Burlington-Keokuk Formation. The Burlington-Keokuk is a highly fossiliferous limestone with nodular and interbedded chert. Beneath the Burlington-Keokuk lies the Elsey, Reeds Spring, and Pierson Formations respectively which comprise the Springfield Plateau aquifer hydrostratigraphic unit. Within the Springfield Plateau aquifer, a well-developed karst system includes springs, sinkholes, and caves. The Springfield Plateau aquifer is the predominant source for springs and seeps in the Springfield area. The purpose of this study was to understand the differences …


Accounting For Spatial Autocorrelation In Modeling The Distribution Of Water Quality Variables, Lorrayne Miralha Jan 2018

Accounting For Spatial Autocorrelation In Modeling The Distribution Of Water Quality Variables, Lorrayne Miralha

Theses and Dissertations--Geography

Several studies in hydrology have reported differences in outcomes between models in which spatial autocorrelation (SAC) is accounted for and those in which SAC is not. However, the capacity to predict the magnitude of such differences is still ambiguous. In this thesis, I hypothesized that SAC, inherently possessed by a response variable, influences spatial modeling outcomes. I selected ten watersheds in the USA and analyzed them to determine whether water quality variables with higher Moran’s I values undergo greater increases in the coefficient of determination (R²) and greater decreases in residual SAC (rSAC) after spatial modeling. I compared non-spatial ordinary …