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Full-Text Articles in Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Identifying The Microphysical Sensitivities Of Mesoscale And Synoptic Precipitation Using An Ensemble Framework, Lauriana Gaudet
Identifying The Microphysical Sensitivities Of Mesoscale And Synoptic Precipitation Using An Ensemble Framework, Lauriana Gaudet
Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)
Through ensemble sensitivity analysis, this dissertation aims to identify the amount of forecast uncertainty that stems from the representation of mixed-phase cloud microphysics within the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). The first research thrust focuses on how the evolution of ice crystal shape and choice of ice nucleation parameterization in the Adaptive Habit Microphysics Model (AHM) influences the lake-effect storm that occurred during Intensive Operating Period 4 (IOP4) of the Ontario Winter Lake Effect Systems (OWLeS) Field Campaign. This localized snowstorm produced total liquid-equivalent precipitation amounts up to 17.92 mm during a 16-hour time period, providing a natural laboratory …
The Impact Of North Pacific And North Atlantic Baroclinic Cyclones On Downstream Predictability, Adam Wayne Sisco
The Impact Of North Pacific And North Atlantic Baroclinic Cyclones On Downstream Predictability, Adam Wayne Sisco
Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)
Baroclinic cyclogenesis can act as an impulsive disturbance along the midlatitude waveguide and promote the dispersion of Rossby waves, potentially impacting the predictability of the downstream midlatitude flow. Indeed, several studies have traced medium-range forecast errors and uncertainties to upstream cyclone development, especially when diabatic processes are involved in modifying the upper-tropospheric potential vorticity (PV) distribution. However, it remains unclear why some forecasts downstream of cyclogenesis are particularly uncertain while others are not. This study uses a 30-yr (1985–2014) sample of cool-season North Pacific and North Atlantic baroclinic cyclones and forecasts from the second-generation Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) reforecast …