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Full-Text Articles in Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Identifying The Microphysical Sensitivities Of Mesoscale And Synoptic Precipitation Using An Ensemble Framework, Lauriana Gaudet
Identifying The Microphysical Sensitivities Of Mesoscale And Synoptic Precipitation Using An Ensemble Framework, Lauriana Gaudet
Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)
Through ensemble sensitivity analysis, this dissertation aims to identify the amount of forecast uncertainty that stems from the representation of mixed-phase cloud microphysics within the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). The first research thrust focuses on how the evolution of ice crystal shape and choice of ice nucleation parameterization in the Adaptive Habit Microphysics Model (AHM) influences the lake-effect storm that occurred during Intensive Operating Period 4 (IOP4) of the Ontario Winter Lake Effect Systems (OWLeS) Field Campaign. This localized snowstorm produced total liquid-equivalent precipitation amounts up to 17.92 mm during a 16-hour time period, providing a natural laboratory …
Process-Based Evaluation Of Stochastic Perturbed Parameterization Tendencies On Ensemble Forecasts Of Heavy Rainfall Events, Kevin Michael Lupo
Process-Based Evaluation Of Stochastic Perturbed Parameterization Tendencies On Ensemble Forecasts Of Heavy Rainfall Events, Kevin Michael Lupo
Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)
Stochastic model error schemes, such as the stochastic perturbed parameterization tendencies (SPPT) and independent SPPT (iSPPT) schemes, have become an increasingly utilized method to represent model error associated with uncertain subgrid-scale processes in ensemble prediction systems (EPSs). While much of the current literature focuses on how stochastic methods influence ensemble skill, relatively less attention is given to the processes by which these schemes lead to forecast variability. In this vein, this dissertation examines the physical processes by which the application of SPPT and iSPPT to the microphysics, planetary boundary layer (PBL), and radiation parameterization schemes yields rainfall forecast variability. These …