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Full-Text Articles in Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
The Limits To Prediction In Ecological Systems, Brian Beckage, Louis J. Gross, Stuart Kauffman
The Limits To Prediction In Ecological Systems, Brian Beckage, Louis J. Gross, Stuart Kauffman
College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications
Predicting the future trajectories of ecological systems is increasingly important as the magnitude of anthropogenic perturbation of the earth systems grows.We distinguish between two types of predictability: the intrinsic or theoretical predictability of a system and the realized predictability that is achieved using available models and parameterizations. We contend that there are strong limits on the intrinsic predictability of ecological systems that arise from inherent characteristics of biological systems. While the realized predictability of ecological systems can be limited by process and parameter misspecification or uncertainty, we argue that the intrinsic predictability of ecological systems is widely and strongly limited …
Cross-Scale Value Trade-Offs In Managing Social-Ecological Systems: The Politics Of Scale In Ruaha National Park, Tanzania, Asim Zia, Paul Hirsch, Alexander Songorwa, David R. Mutekanga, Sheila O'Connor, Thomas Mcshane, Peter Brosius, Bryan Norton
Cross-Scale Value Trade-Offs In Managing Social-Ecological Systems: The Politics Of Scale In Ruaha National Park, Tanzania, Asim Zia, Paul Hirsch, Alexander Songorwa, David R. Mutekanga, Sheila O'Connor, Thomas Mcshane, Peter Brosius, Bryan Norton
College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications
Management of social-ecological systems takes place amidst complex governance processes and cross-scale institutional arrangements that are mediated through politics of scale. Each management scenario generates distinct cross-scale trade-offs in the distribution of pluralistic values. This study explores the hypothesis that conservation-oriented management scenarios generate higher value for international and national scale social organizations, whereas mixed or more balanced management scenarios generate higher value for local scale social organizations. This hypothesis is explored in the management context of Ruaha National Park (RNP), Tanzania, especially the 2006 expansion of RNP that led to the eviction of many pastoralists and farmers. Five management …