Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology Commons^™

Multidecadal Variability In Climate Models And Observations, Alex Carl Oser

Theses and Dissertations

Climate change attribution and prediction using state-of-the-art models continue to garner an ever-growing focus amongst both the scientific community and public alike. Recent analyses showing discrepancies in the structure of modeled and observed decadal climate variability (DCV), therefore, have engendered efforts to not only diagnose the dynamics underpinning observed DCV, but also to characterize the behavior of DCV within climate models. In this thesis, we employ Multichannel Singular Spectrum Analysis (M-SSA) to show that while the DCV signal in observations is best described as a coherent oscillation with complex propagation across the globe, modeled DCV lacks this structure altogether. Specifically, …