Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology Commons^™

Climate Change And Climate Variability: El Salvador – Impacts On Productivity Of Grain Crops And Opportunities For Management And Improvement, P. V. Vara Prasad

INTSORMIL Presentations

1. Climate change and climate variability (past and future).

2. Climate change and variability in El Salvador (climate models).

3. Impact of temperature on grain yield of dry bean, maize and sorghum in El Salvador (crop simulation models).

4. Effects of temperature, drought and/or carbon dioxide: experimental evidence (response of grain sorghum, maize and dry bean).

5. Opportunities for crop management and genetic improvement.

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation-Forced Regional Summertime Precipitation Variations In The Central United States, Michael C. Veres

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The purpose of this research is to identify the regional mechanisms by which the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) influences summer (June-August) precipitation in the central U.S. This was accomplished by running two different sets of simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model, one forced by observations and the other forced only by variations in the AMO as obtained via a global climate model (GCM). The results reveal a complex set of mechanisms active in the lower and middle troposphere by which the AMO influences summer circulation and precipitation in the central U.S. During the cold phase …

Spring Migration Of Mallards From Arkansas As Determined By Satellite Telemetry, David George Krementz, Kwasi Asante, Luke W. Naylor

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

We used satellite telemetry to document spring migration phenology, routes, stopover regions, and nesting sites of mallards Anas platyrhynchos marked in Arkansas during the winters of 2004–2007. Of the 143 marked mallards that migrated from Arkansas, they did so, on average, by mid-March. Mallards flew over the Missouri Ozarks and 42% made an initial stopover in Missouri, where they used areas that had larger rivers (Mississippi River, Missouri River) embedded in an agricultural landscape. From this stopover region they either migrated directly to the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) or they migrated north to Minnesota where they either moved next to …

Droughtscape- Fall 2011, Kelly Smith

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

Drought Preparedness Community Options

Drought Likely to Persist, Intensify Across South

Database Will Help Planners Find Options

Impacts: Ag Losses, Fire, Water Restrictions

NDMC Welcomes International Visitors

New Drought Impact Reporter Online

Sim-Drought, Available Now at Select Agencies

Droughtscape- Summer 2011, Kelly Smith

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

New NDMC Website

Drought May Improve in Southeast and Southwest

Impacts Summary: Fire, Crop Loss and More

International Activities

NDMC Launches Ranch Planning Tool

Serving Data to Order

Workshop Builds Drought Planning Community

Identifying Changes In Climatic Trends And The Fingerprints Of Landuse And Landcover Changes In The High Plains Of The Usa, Denis Mutiibwa

Department of Biological Systems Engineering: Dissertations and Theses

Human activities such as conversion of natural ecosystem to croplands and urban-centers, deforestation and afforestation impact biophysical properties of land surface such as albedo, energy balance, and surface roughness. Alterations in these properties affect the heat and moisture exchanges between the land surface and atmospheric boundary layer. The objectives of this research were; (i) to quantitatively identify the High plains’ regional climate change in temperatures over the period 1895 to 2006, (ii) detect the signatures of anthropogenic forcing of LULC changes on the regional climate change of the High Plains, and (iii) examine the trends in evolving regional latent heat …

Building An Enhanced Drought Early Warning System (Dews): Tools And Services For Decision Support, Mark Svoboda

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Outline

• About the NDMC
• Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) Overview
• Tools (USDM, DIR, Atlas, VegDRI, + EPC/DRC)
• NDMC and the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)
• Toward a Global Drought Early Warning System (NIDIS)
• Toward a Global Drought Early Warning System (GDEWS)
• Summary
• Q&A

Droughts In The 21st Century And Beyond, Vijay P. Singh, Chris Funk, Jim Angel, Mark Svoboda

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought: Science

• Characterization
• Mechanisms
• Modelings
• Prediction and Forecasting

Drought Monitoring

• Measurement
• Mapping
• Space
• Time
• Data Sharing
• Updating

Secretive Marsh Bird Species Co-Occurrences And Habitat Associations Across The Midwest, Usa, Jason R. Bolenbaugh, Sarah E. Lehnen, David G. Krementz

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Because secretive marsh birds are difficult to detect, population status and habitat use for these birds are not well known. We conducted repeated surveys for secretive marsh birds across 264 sites in the Upper Mississippi River and Great Lakes Joint Venture region to estimate abundance, occupancy, and detection probabilities during the 2008 and 2009 breeding seasons. We identified species groups based on observed species co-occurrences. Two species, least bittern Ixobrychus exilis and American bittern Botaurus lentiginosus, co-occurred with other species less often than expected by chance, and two species groups, rails (Virginia rail Rallus limicola and sora Porzana carolina) and …

Building A Sustainable Network Of Drought Communities, Deborah J. Bathke, Nicole Wall, Jeff Nothwehr, Kelly Helm Smith, Donna L. Woudenberg, Tonya K. Bernadt, Crystal Bergman, Joseph P. Robine, Michael Hayes, Mark Svoboda, Lisa Darby, Roger S. Pulwarty, The National Drought Mitigation Center, The National Integrated Drought Information System Program Office

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Personnel Publications

The first step in managing large-scale (national) collaborations and networks is to consider and address how a group and a potential partnership may match up (Luther, 2005). To explore this concept and many other collaborative concepts, the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) hosted a workshop, “Building a Sustainable Network of Drought Communities,” which was facilitated by the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) in Chicago, IL, June 8-9, 2011.

The workshop explored current examples of good communication and lessons learned within the realm of drought planning in order to address a future NIDIS Engaging Preparedness Communities (EPC) working group that …

Rapid Wetland Expansion During European Settlement And Its Implication For Marsh Survival Under Modern Sediment Delivery Rates, Matthew L. Kirwan, A. Brad Murray, Jeffrey P. Donnelly, D. Reide Corbett

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Fluctuations in sea-level rise rates are thought to dominate the formation and evolution of coastal wetlands. Here we demonstrate a contrasting scenario in which land-use–related changes in sediment delivery rates drive the formation of expansive marshland, and vegetation feedbacks maintain their morphology despite recent sediment supply reduction. Stratigraphic analysis and radiocarbon dating in the Plum Island Estuary (Massachusetts, United States) suggest that salt marshes expanded rapidly during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries due to increased rates of sediment delivery following deforestation associated with European settlement. Numerical modeling coupled with the stratigraphic observations suggests that existing marshland could survive, but not …

Drought-Ready Communities: A Guide To Community Drought Preparedness, Mark D. Svoboda, Kelly Smith, Melissa Widhalm, Donna Louise Woudenberg, Cody L. Knutson, Meghan Sittler, Jim Angel, Mike Spinar, Mark Shafer, Renee Mcpherson, Heather Lazrus

National Drought Mitigation Center: Publications

Table of Contents

Introduction to Drought-Ready Communities........................................................ 4

Section 1. Getting Started: Invite the Community to Participate, Commit to the Process...................... 7

1.1 Establish a leadership team that includes individuals with responsibility for monitoring, communication, and implementation .............................................. 7

1.2 Identify stakeholders or groups in the community that may need additional resources to participate in the Drought-Ready Communities process .................... 8

1.3 Include government agencies and regulators ....................................... 9

1.4 Develop a contact list ................................................................ 9

1.5 Gather community perceptions of drought .................................................. 10

Section 2. Information Gathering: Understand Water Sources and Uses, Develop a Drought History . 11

2.1 …

Extent Of Gully Erosion In An Agricultural Field In Northeastern Nebraska At Section 35 Township 29 North Range 1 West In Cedar County, Crystal Starkel

Department of Environmental Studies: Undergraduate Student Theses

My thesis project examined a gully within Section 35 Township 29 North Range 1 West. This gully has been noticed for five years and has grown substantially in those five years. The extent and causes of gully erosion were examined by considering the soil, the climate, the land management history, by measuring the gully physically, by using GIS, and by using an economic support tool was estimate soil loss. Appropriate recommendations were developed to reduce gully erosion.

Spatial Patterns Of Drought Triggers And Indicators, Joseph P. Robine

Department of Environmental Studies: Undergraduate Student Theses

Drought is a reoccurring phenomenon with widespread economic, social, and environmental impacts. Unlike other disasters, a drought cannot be easily detected. In addition, droughts are widespread and develop slowly over time making it difficult to detect its onset and monitor its severity and impacts. To assist in monitoring the severity and spatial extent of droughts, drought managers frequently use indicators and triggers. Drought indicators are meteorological or hydrological variables or indices that quantify or describe the level of drought severity. A drought trigger is a value of an indicator that initiates management and response actions. Despite the clear importance of …

Verification Of The Cobb Snowfall Forecasting Algorithm, Josh Barnwell

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Forecasting storm total snow accumulation is one of the most difficult aspects of meteorological forecasting. The forecaster has to interpret three main variables in order to forecast snowfall accurately. These forecasting variables are the duration of the snowfall, the amount of liquid water the storm will produce, and the snow density or snow ratio. With the advancement of computer models in recent history, the need for a quick and easy interpretation of these variables has grown, and to improve on previous forecasting techniques’ disadvantages with including the three snow forecasting variables. The Cobb Method snowfall forecasting algorithm utilizes model data …

Evaluation Of Drought Indices Based On Thermal Remote Sensing Of Evapotranspiration Over The Continental United States, Martha C. Anderson, Christopher R. Hain, Brian Wardlow, Agustin Pimstein, John R. Mecikalski, William P. Kustas

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The reliability of standard meteorological drought indices based on measurements of precipitation is limited by the spatial distribution and quality of currently available rainfall data. Furthermore, they reflect only one component of the surface hydrologic cycle, and they cannot readily capture nonprecipitation-based moisture inputs to the land surface system (e.g., irrigation) that may temper drought impacts or variable rates of water consumption across a landscape. This study assesses the value of a new drought index based on remote sensing of evapotranspiration (ET). The evaporative stress index (ESI) quantifies anomalies in the ratio of actual to potential ET (PET), mapped using …

Effects Of Rodent Species, Seed Species, And Predator Cues On Seed Fate, Kelly J. Sivy, Steven M. Ostoja, Eugene W. Schupp, Susan Durham

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Seed selection, removal and subsequent management by granivorous animals is thought to be a complex interaction of factors including qualities of the seeds themselves (e.g., seed size, nutritional quality) and features of the local habitat (e.g. perceived predator risk). At the same time, differential seed selection and dispersal is thought to have profound effects on seed fate and potentially vegetation dynamics. In a feeding arena, we tested whether rodent species, seed species, and indirect and direct predation cues influence seed selection and handling behaviors (e.g., scatter hoarding versus larder hoarding) of two heteromyid rodents, Ord’s kangaroo rat (Dipodomys ordii) and …

Impact Of Climate Change And Climate Variability On Productivity Of Grain Crops, P. V. Vara Prasad

INTSORMIL Presentations

1. Climate change and climate variability (past and future). 2. Temperature and carbon dioxide: response of grain sorghum and dry bean. 3. Climate change and variability in El Salvador (climate models). 4. Impact of temperature increaseongrainyieldofsorghum,maizeanddrybeaninElSalvador(cropsimulationmodels). 5.Concludingremarks.

Evaluation Of The Sensitivity Of Inventory And Monitoring National Parks To Acidification Effects From Atmospheric Sulfur And Nitrogen Deposition, Northern Great Plains Network (Ngpn), T. J. Sullivan, T. C. Mcdonnell, G. T. Mcpherson, S. D. Mackey, D. Moore

United States National Park Service: Publications

Northern Great Plains Network (NGPN)

National maps of atmospheric sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N) emissions and deposition are provided in Maps A through D as context for subsequent network data presentations. Maps A and B show county level emissions of total S and total N for the year 2002. Maps C and D show total S and total N deposition, again for the year 2002.

There are three parks in the Northern Great Plains Network that are larger than 100 square miles: Badlands (BADL), Missouri (MNRR), and Theodore Roosevelt (THRO). In addition, there are 10 smaller parks.

Total annual S …

Droughtscape- Spring 2011, Kelly Smith

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

Register Now

Forecasters Say Dryness in TX and SW to Continue

Drought Planning, The Game: Coming Soon

Ding Takes New Post

South and Southwest Lose Crops, Fight Fires

Drought Monitor Authors Review Enhanced GIS Tools and New Processes

Estimation Of Land Surface Evapotranspiration With A Satellite Remote Sensing Procedure, Ayse Kilic, Ian Ratcliffe, Pariskhit Ranade, Kenneth Hubbard, Ramesh K. Singh, Babuarao Kamble, Jeppe Kjaersgaard

Great Plains Research: A Journal of Natural and Social Sciences

There are various methods available for estimating magnitude and trends of evapotranspiration. Bowen ratio energy balance system and eddy correlation techniques offer powerful alternatives for measuring land surface evapotranspiration. In spite of the elegance, high accuracy, and theoretical attractions of these techniques for measuring evapotranspiration, their practical use over large areas can be limited due to the number of sites needed and the related expense. Application of evapotranspiration mapping from satellite measurements can overcome the limitations. The objective of this study was to utilize the METRIC^TM (Mapping Evapotranspiration at High Resolution using Internalized Calibration) model in Great Plains environmental …

Trends Of Wind And Wind Power Over The Coterminous United States, Eric M. Holt

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The trends of wind and wind power at a typical wind turbine hub height (80 m) are analyzed using the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) dataset for 1979-2009. Based upon the wind speeds at NARR’s vertical layers right above and below the 80 m level, the wind speeds at 80 m are estimated using two methods assuming the wind profile respectively as linear and power-law distribution with respect to the altitude in the lower boundary layer. Furthermore, we calculate the following variables at 80 m that are needed for the estimation and interpretation of wind power: the air density, zonal …

Evaluation Of The Sensitivity Of Inventory And Monitoring National Parks To Nutrient Enrichment Effects From Atmospheric Nitrogen Deposition Northern Great Plains Network (Ngpn), T. J. Sullivan, T. C. Mcdonnell, G. T. Mcpherson, S. D. Mackey, D. Moore

United States National Park Service: Publications

Northern Great Plains Network (NGPN)

National maps of atmospheric N emissions and deposition are provided in Maps A and B as context for subsequent network data presentations. Map A shows county level emissions of total N for the year 2002. Map B shows total N deposition, again for the year 2002.

There are three parks in the Northern Great Plains Network that are larger than 100 square miles: Badlands (BADL), Missouri (MNRR), and Theodore Roosevelt (THRO). In addition, there are 10 other smaller parks.

Total annual N emissions, by county, are shown in Map C for lands in and surrounding …

Improved Verification And Analysis Of National Weather Service Point Forecast Matrices, Paul Fajman

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Verification is the process of determining the quality of forecast information. Office and personal forecast verifications are significantly lacking throughout the National Weather Service for many reasons. The primary reasons are that verification is time consuming, tedious, and monotonous. This research attempted to ease that process by creating new computer procedures to automate the verification process. The new procedures were tested using two years of forecasting data from November 2007 to November 2009 from the Omaha/Valley Weather Forecasting Office to serve as a framework for future verifications. Point Forecast Matrices (PFM) produced by the National Weather Service twice daily and …

The Global Drought Monitor Portal, Michael J. Brewer, Richard R. Heim Jr.

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought monitoring, assessment, response, mitigation, adaptation, and early warning systems have been created in a number of countries around the world, and some regional and continental efforts have been successful. However, the creation of a Global Drought Early Warning System (GDEWS) remains elusive. A GDEWS incorporates forecasting and research improvements, in addition to monitoring, impact, planning, mitigation and adaptation and recovery information. At a series of workshops in 2010, the U.S. National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) agreed to take the first step toward a GDEWS, the formation of a Global Drought Monitoring Portal (GDMP). This effort currently covers three …

Farmer Perceptions Of Sustainable Agriculture Practices And Drought Risk Reduction In Nebraska, Usa, Cody L. Knutson, Tonya Haigh, Michael J. Hayes, Melissa Widhalm, J. Nothwehr, M. Kleinschmidt, L. Graf

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Social factors, such as farming methods, have an impact on farm vulnerability to drought, but have received little research or policy attention. Some researchers and advocates have argued that sustainable agriculture systems are less vulnerable to climate risk than conventional systems because sustainable agriculture requires producers to have skills promoting adaptability. In this paper, we investigate producers’ perceptions on the use of sustainable agriculture in reducing drought risk, and what they believe would help them better adapt to drought. We surveyed and interviewed farmer members of two sustainable agriculture organizations in Nebraska, USA, during a multi-year drought period from 1999 …

Introduction To “Environmental Contaminants In Biota, 2nd Edition”, W. Nelson Beyer, James P. Meador

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Ecotoxicology is the study of the movement of environmental contaminants through ecosystems and their effects on plants and animals. Examining tissue residues of these contaminants in biota is basic to ecotoxicology, both for understanding the movement of contaminants within organisms and through food chains, and for understanding and quantifying injuries to organisms and their communities. This book provides guidance on interpreting tissue concentrations of environmental contaminants.

Tissue concentrations have long been used both to identify the cause of toxicity in animals and as a measure of the severity of toxicity. More recently, they have been incorporated into environmental models, tying …

Selenium In Birds, Harry M. Ohlendorf, Gary H. Heinz

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Selenium (Se) is a metalloid trace element that birds and other wildlife need in small amounts for good health. The main purpose of this chapter is to interpret tissue concentrations of Se. However, because food is the main source of Se accumulation for birds and other wildlife, and because dietary concentrations for effects on bird reproduction have been reported, we also provide interpretive information on Se in the diet.

Se deficiencies in domestic poultry and livestock occur in some parts of the world and must be corrected by additions of Se to the diet. However, the range of dietary concentrations …

The Role Of Demographic Compensation Theory In Incidental Take Assessments For Endangered Species, Conor P. Mcgowan, Mark R. Ryan, Michael C. Runge, Joshua J. Millspaugh, Jean Fitts Cochrane

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Many endangered species laws provide exceptions to legislated prohibitions through incidental take provisions as long as take is the result of unintended consequences of an otherwise legal activity. These allowances presumably invoke the theory of demographic compensation, commonly applied to harvested species, by allowing limited harm as long as the probability of the species’ survival or recovery is not reduced appreciably. Demographic compensation requires some density-dependent limits on survival or reproduction in a species’ annual cycle that can be alleviated through incidental take. Using a population model for piping plovers in the Great Plains, we found that when the population …

Droughtscape- Winter 2011, Kelly Smith

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

Register for the U.S. Drought Monitor Forum

La Niña Brings Southeast, Southwest Drought

International Efforts

Drought Returns in 2010

Impacts Emerge “Before” Summer Drought in East

October-December Quarterly Impacts Summary

Climate Adaptation for Local Government

NDMC Elicits Missouri River Basin Recollections

Woudenberg Coordinates Educational Booklet