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Full-Text Articles in Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
A Diagnostic Metric For Predicting Tropical Cyclone And Mid-Latitude Floods, Jonathon Klepatzki, Shawn M. Milrad
A Diagnostic Metric For Predicting Tropical Cyclone And Mid-Latitude Floods, Jonathon Klepatzki, Shawn M. Milrad
Beyond: Undergraduate Research Journal
This study details a dynamic and thermodynamic metric (i.e., Extreme Flood Index [EFI]) designed to diagnose the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events associated with stagnant mid-latitude flow patterns (i.e., Rex blocks). As the global climate warms, rapid Arctic warming may be helping to slow the mid-latitude westerly jet stream, resulting in increased mid-latitude flow stagnation. The combination of long-duration ascent associated with easterly winds and warm moist air increases the severity of extreme precipitation events; as such, the EFI is specifically designed to detect this potent combination of ingredients. In 2013, a Rex block stalled a low-pressure system …
Extreme Value Analysis Of Rainfall Events Over The Kennedy Space Center Complex, Adam David Schnapp
Extreme Value Analysis Of Rainfall Events Over The Kennedy Space Center Complex, Adam David Schnapp
Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses
The use of observational datasets to determine the occurrence frequencies of extreme weather events has gained a lot of recent interest due to concerns about the potential regional impacts from global climate change. Extreme-value theory can quantify the return frequency of the most extreme events, using climatologically short data sets and the assumption that such short climatological periods are stationary. However, the resulting analyses must be used with caution since they may not accurately reflect the potential of extreme events in the future due to climate change and variability. Accurately predicting extreme-event likelihood is important for building realistic long-range planning …