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Full-Text Articles in Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Impacts Of Pacific Ssts On Atmospheric Circulations Leading To California Winter Precipitation Variability: A Diagnostic Modeling, Boksoon Myoung, Sang-Wook Yeh, Jinwon Kim, Menas Kafatos
Impacts Of Pacific Ssts On Atmospheric Circulations Leading To California Winter Precipitation Variability: A Diagnostic Modeling, Boksoon Myoung, Sang-Wook Yeh, Jinwon Kim, Menas Kafatos
Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research
One of the primary meteorological causes of the winter precipitation deficits and droughts in California (CA) is anomalous developments and maintenance of upper-tropospheric ridges over the northeastern Pacific. In order to understand and find the key factors controlling the winter precipitation variability in CA, the present study examines two dominant atmospheric modes of the 500 hPa geopotential height in the Northern Hemisphere using an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) and their associated large-scale circulation patterns for the last 41 winters (1974/75–2014/15). Explaining 17.5% of variability, the second mode (EOF2) shows strong anti-cyclonic circulations in the North Pacific and cyclonic circulations in …
Application Of Recurrent Neural Networks For Drought Projections In California, J. A. Le, Hesham El-Askary, Mohamed Allali, Daniele C. Struppa
Application Of Recurrent Neural Networks For Drought Projections In California, J. A. Le, Hesham El-Askary, Mohamed Allali, Daniele C. Struppa
Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research
We use recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to investigate the complex interactions between the long-term trend in dryness and a projected, short but intense, period of wetness due to the 2015-2016 El Niño. Although it was forecasted that this El Niño season would bring significant rainfall to the region, our long-term projections of the Palmer Z Index (PZI) showed a continuing drought trend, contrasting with the 1998-1999 El Niño event. RNN training considered PZI data during 1896-2006 that was validated against the 2006-2015 period to evaluate the potential of extreme precipitation forecast. We achieved a statistically significant correlation of 0.610 between …