Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology Commons^™

Topographic Control Of Asynchronous Glacial Advances: A Case Study From Annapurna, Nepal, Beth Pratt-Sitaula, Douglas W. Burbank, Arjun M. Heimsath, Neil F. Humphrey, Michael Oskin, Jaakko Putkonen

All Faculty Scholarship for the College of the Sciences

Differences in the timing of glacial advances, which are commonly attributed to climatic changes, can be due to variations in valley topography. Cosmogenic 10Be dates from 24 glacial moraine boulders in 5 valleys define two age populations, late-glacial and early Holocene. Moraine ages correlate with paleoglacier valley hypsometries. Moraines in valleys with lower maximum altitudes date to the lateglacial, whereas those in valleys with higher maximum altitudes are early Holocene. Two valleys with similar equilibrium-line altitudes (ELAs), but contrasting ages, are < 5 km apart and share the same aspect, such that spatial differences in climate can be excluded. A glacial mass-balance cellular automata model of these two neighboring valleys predicts that change from a cooler-drier to warmer-wetter climate (as at the Holocene onset) would lead to the glacier in the higher altitude catchment advancing, while the lower one retreats or disappears, even though the ELA only shifted by ~120 m.

Do You Believe The Climate Is Changing? Answers From New Survey Research, Lawrence C. Hamilton

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

This brief explores how political views influence Americans’ understanding and perception of science. The research is based on a national version of the Community and Environment in Rural America survey called NCERA, and on New Hampshire’s statewide Granite State Poll. Author Lawrence Hamilton reports that most people on both surveys feel that they understand either a great deal or a moderate amount about global warming or climate change. However, deep partisan divisions affect both personal beliefs about climate change and perceptions of agreement among scientists. Democrats are much more likely to state they believe that climate change is happening, caused …

Global Change, Global Trade, And The Next Wave Of Plant Invasions, Bethany A. Bradley, Dana M. Blumenthal, Regan Early, Edwin D. Grosholz, Joshua J. Lawler, Luke P. Miller, Cascade J.B. Sorte, Carla M. D'Antonio, Jeffrey M. Diez, Jeffrey S. Dukes, Ines Ibanez, Julian D. Olden

Faculty Publications, Biological Sciences

Many non-native plants in the US have become problematic invaders of native and managed ecosystems, but a new generation of invasive species may be at our doorstep. Here, we review trends in the horticultural trade and invasion patterns of previously introduced species and show that novel species introductions from emerging horticultural trade partners are likely to rapidly increase invasion risk. At the same time, climate change and water restrictions are increasing demand for new types of species adapted to warm and dry environments. This confluence of forces could expose the US to a range of new invasive species, including many …

Climate Change And Climate Variability: El Salvador – Impacts On Productivity Of Grain Crops And Opportunities For Management And Improvement, P. V. Vara Prasad

INTSORMIL Presentations

1. Climate change and climate variability (past and future).

2. Climate change and variability in El Salvador (climate models).

3. Impact of temperature on grain yield of dry bean, maize and sorghum in El Salvador (crop simulation models).

4. Effects of temperature, drought and/or carbon dioxide: experimental evidence (response of grain sorghum, maize and dry bean).

5. Opportunities for crop management and genetic improvement.

Randomization Tests For Quantifying Species Importance To Ecosystem Function, Nicholas J. Gotelli, Werner Ulrich, Fernando T. Maestre

College of Arts and Sciences Faculty Publications

1. Quantifying the contribution of different species to ecosystem function is an important challenge. We introduce simple randomization tests (and software) for quantifying the average effect of species on ecosystem variables measured in multiple plots with and without the presence of a particular species. These randomization tests formalize the analysis of uncontrolled 'natural experiments' and quantify species effects in standardized deviation units. 2.We tested the method with data on ecosystem function in biological soil crust assemblages of lichens in semi-arid gypsum outcrops in central Spain. In sixty-three 50cm×50cm sample plots, we measured the presence and percentage cover of 17 species …

Underestimating The Costs Of Conservation In Southeast Asia, David P. Edwards, Brendan Fisher, Xingli Giam, David S. Wilcove

Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation-Forced Regional Summertime Precipitation Variations In The Central United States, Michael C. Veres

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The purpose of this research is to identify the regional mechanisms by which the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) influences summer (June-August) precipitation in the central U.S. This was accomplished by running two different sets of simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model, one forced by observations and the other forced only by variations in the AMO as obtained via a global climate model (GCM). The results reveal a complex set of mechanisms active in the lower and middle troposphere by which the AMO influences summer circulation and precipitation in the central U.S. During the cold phase …

The Limits To Prediction In Ecological Systems, Brian Beckage, Louis J. Gross, Stuart Kauffman

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

Predicting the future trajectories of ecological systems is increasingly important as the magnitude of anthropogenic perturbation of the earth systems grows.We distinguish between two types of predictability: the intrinsic or theoretical predictability of a system and the realized predictability that is achieved using available models and parameterizations. We contend that there are strong limits on the intrinsic predictability of ecological systems that arise from inherent characteristics of biological systems. While the realized predictability of ecological systems can be limited by process and parameter misspecification or uncertainty, we argue that the intrinsic predictability of ecological systems is widely and strongly limited …

Climate Change In The Piscataqua/Great Bay Region: Past, Present, And Future, Cameron P. Wake, Elizabeth Burakowski, Eric Kelsey, Katharine Hayhoe, Anne Stoner, Chris Watson, Ellen Douglas

The Sustainability Institute Publications

Earth ’s climate changes. It always has and always will. However, an extensive body of scientific evidence indicates that human activities are now a significant force driving change in the Earth’s climate system. This report describes how the climate of the Piscataqua/Great Bay region of coastal New Hampshire in the United States has changed over the past century and how the future climate of the region will be affected by human activities that are warming the planet.

Overall, the region has been getting warmer and wetter over the last century, and the rate of change has increased over the last …

Sustainability And Climate Models For The Intermountain West: An Annotated Bibliography, Marianne A. Buehler, William E. Brown Jr.

Brookings Mountain West Publications

This resource on climate models and sustainability in the Intermountain West, a region that includes the states of Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah, is a collaborative effort between the UNLV Libraries (http://library.unlv.edu/) and Brookings Mountain West (http://brookingsmtnwest.unlv.edu/).

The selected citations include academic, government, and non-profit information that highlight ongoing research on climate models and sustainability efforts in the region. The websites, government studies, independent reports, scholarly articles, and media reports reflect the diversity and complexity of climate change and sustainability issues in a region that contains widely varying ecosystems. The Intermountain West, with its deserts, basins, mountains, …

Environmental Prediction In Canadian Cities, James Voogt

Geography & Environment Presentations

No abstract provided.

Effects Of Climate Change On Spring Ecosystem Hydroecology As A Guide To Developing Alternative Water Policies, Scott Mensing, Saxon E. Sharpe, Scott Bassett, Don Sada, Jim Thomas

Climate Change Seminar Series (NNE)

Hydroecology: the interface of ecological systems and water which combines the scientific disciplines of hydrology and ecology

Goal: evaluate the hydrologic and climate history using pollen, loss on ignition, total inorganic carbon, and invertebrates from spring sediments in Spring Valley, Eastern Nevada and Snake Valley, Western Utah

Heating Up The Forest: Open-Top Chamber Warming Manipulation Of Arthropod Communities At Harvard And Duke Forests, Shannon L. Pelini, Francis P. Bowles, Aaron M. Ellison, Nicholas J. Gotelli, Nathan J. Sanders, Robert R. Dunn

College of Arts and Sciences Faculty Publications

1.Recent observations indicate that climatic change is altering biodiversity, and models suggest that the consequences of climate change will differ across latitude. However, long-term experimental field manipulations that directly test the predictions about organisms' responses to climate change across latitude are lacking. Such experiments could provide a more mechanistic understanding of the consequences of climate change on ecological communities and subsequent changes in ecosystem processes, facilitating better predictions of the effects of future climate change. 2.This field experiment uses octagonal, 5-m-diameter (c.22m 3) open-top chambers to simulate warming at northern (Harvard Forest, Massachusetts) and southern (Duke Forest, North Carolina) hardwood …

Droughtscape- Fall 2011, Kelly Smith

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

Drought Preparedness Community Options

Drought Likely to Persist, Intensify Across South

Database Will Help Planners Find Options

Impacts: Ag Losses, Fire, Water Restrictions

NDMC Welcomes International Visitors

New Drought Impact Reporter Online

Sim-Drought, Available Now at Select Agencies

Collaborative Research: Microparticle/Tephra Analysis Of The Wais Divide Ice Core, Karl J. Kreutz, Andrei V. Kurbatov, Mark Wells, Paul Andrew Mayewski

University of Maine Office of Research Administration: Grant Reports

This award supports a project to perform continuous microparticle concentration and size distribution measurements (using coulter counter and state-of-the-art laser detector methods), analysis of biologically relevant trace elements associated with microparticles (Fe, Zn, Co, Cd, Cu), and tephra measurements on the WAIS Divide ice core. This initial three-year project includes analysis of ice core spanning the instrumental (~1850-present) to mid- Holocene (~5000 years BP) period, with sample resolution ranging from subannual to decadal. The intellectual merit of the project is that it will help in establishing the relationships among climate, atmospheric aerosols from terrestrial and volcanic sources, ocean biogeochemistry, and …

A Natural-Resource-Based View Of The Firm: Fifteen Years After, Stuart L. Hart, Glen Dowell

Grossman School of Business Faculty Publications

The authors revisit Hart's natural-resource-based view (NRBV) of the firm and summarize progress that has been made in testing elements of that theory and reevaluate the NRBV in light of a number of important developments that have emerged in recent years in both the resource-based view literature and in research on sustainable enterprise. First, the authors consider how the NRBV can both benefit from recent work in dynamic capabilities and can itself inform such work. Second, they review recent research in the areas of clean technology and business at the base of the pyramid and suggest how the NRBV can …

Pakistan’S Two-Stage Monsoon And Links With The Recent Climate Change, Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang, Robert Davies, Wan Ru Huang, Robert R. Gillies

Plants, Soils, and Climate Faculty Publications

Meteorological conditions related to the Pakistan floods of 2010 were examined in the context of monsoon dynamics and large‐scale circulations. Case and climatological analyses suggest that summer precipitation in northern Pakistan comprises two distinct phases: (1) a premonsoon trough phase (July) whose rainfall is more episodic and intense, occurring prior to arrival of the monsoon trough, and (2) a monsoon trough phase (August) whose rainfall is persistent, yet less episodic, driven by northward migration of the monsoon trough. Analyses of conditional instability, moisture flux, and circulation features support a persistent increase in conditional instability during the July premonsoon trough phase, …

Understanding Earth's Eroding Surface With 10Be, Eric W. Portenga, Paul R. Bierman

College of Arts and Sciences Faculty Publications

For more than a century, geologists have sought to measure the distribution of erosion rates on Earth's dynamic surface. Since the mid-1980s, measurements of in situ 10Be, a cosmogenic radionuclide, have been used to estimate outcrop and basin-scale erosion rates at 87 sites around the world. Here, we compile, normalize, and compare published 10Be erosion rate data (n = 1599) in order to understand how, on a globalscale, geologic erosion rates integrated over 103 to 106 years varybetween climate zones, tectonic settings, and different rock types. Drainage basins erodemore quickly (mean = 218 m Myr-1; median = 54 m Myr-1) …

The Effects Of Climate Change On Density-Dependent Population Dynamics Of Aquatic Invertebrates, Edmund M. Hart, Nicholas J. Gotelli

College of Arts and Sciences Faculty Publications

Global climate change has the potential to alter aquatic communities through changes in evapotranspiration and increased variability in precipitation. We used aquatic mesocosms to test the impacts of variable precipitation on population dynamics of commonn mosquito (Culicidae) and midge (Chironomidae) larvae that inhabit vernal pools. In a mixed deciduous forest in northern Vermont, USA, we orthogonally crossed seven levels of mean water level (increased rainfall) with seven levels of water level coefficient of variation (more variable rainfall) to simulate a broad array of climate change scenarios in 49 experimental mesocosms. The average abundance of Culicidae was highest at low water …

The High Costs Of Conserving Southeast Asia's Lowland Rainforests, Brendan Fisher, David P. Edwards, Xingli Giam, David S. Wilcove

Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources Faculty Publications

Mechanisms that mitigate greenhouse-gas emissions via forest conservation have been portrayed as a cost-effective approach that can also protect biodiversity and vital ecosystem services. However, the costs of conservation - including opportunity costs - are spatially heterogeneous across the globe. The lowland rainforests of Southeast Asia represent a unique nexus of large carbon stores, imperiled biodiversity, large stores of timber, and high potential for conversion to oil-palm plantations, making this region one where understanding the costs of conservation is critical. Previous studies have underestimated the gap between conservation costs and conversion benefits in Southeast Asia. Using detailed logging records, cost …

A Climatology Of High-Wind Events Associated With Post-Tropical Cyclones In The United States, Joshua M. Gilliland

Masters Theses & Specialist Projects

During 1951-2009, 47% of all tropical systems (TSs) within the Atlantic Basin transitioned to post-tropical (PTC) extratropical classification. These systems have shown the capability of producing hurricane-force winds and gusts for portions of the eastern United States. This study provides a climatological foundation for high-wind observations that were contributed from PTCs. In this study, 76 PTC systems were identified and tracked using six hourly observations from the National Hurricane Center’s HURDAT dataset. Mean wind radii buffers were calculated and used to determine the high-wind observations attributed by PTCs. High-wind climatology was developed by using hourly surface wind data from the …

Collaborative Research: Asian Ice Core Array (Aica)--Reconstruction Of Past Physical And Chemical Climate Over Asia, Paul Mayewski, Karl J. Kreutz, Andrei V. Kurbatov

University of Maine Office of Research Administration: Grant Reports

Funding is provided to help the researchers build on success using ice cores for understanding past physical and chemical climate change from Antarctica, Arctic, North Pacific and Asia by analyzing and interpreting a new array of Asian ice cores. The researchers plan to use five existing ice cores and collect one new ice core to enhance the reconstruction of environmental conditions over Asia.

The primary research questions for the Asian Ice Core Array (AICA) research include:

(1) Asian climate variability - How do major Asian circulation features (i.e., Asian monsoon, Westerlies, polar air masses, Siberian and Tibetan Highs) vary on …

Evaluating The Remote Sensing And Inventory-Based Estimation Of Biomass In The Western Carpathians, Magdalena Main-Knorn, Gretchen G. Moisen, Sean P. Healey, William S. Keeton, Elizabeth A. Freeman, Patrick Hostert

Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources Faculty Publications

Understanding the potential of forest ecosystems as global carbon sinks requires a thorough knowledge of forest carbon dynamics, including both sequestration and fluxes among multiple pools. The accurate quantification of biomass is important to better understand forest productivity and carbon cycling dynamics. Stand-based inventories (SBIs) are widely used for quantifying forest characteristics and for estimating biomass, but information may quickly become outdated in dynamic forest environments. Satellite remote sensing may provide a supplement or substitute. We tested the accuracy of aboveground biomass estimates modeled from a combination of Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery and topographic data, as well as SBI-derived …

Droughtscape- Summer 2011, Kelly Smith

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

New NDMC Website

Drought May Improve in Southeast and Southwest

Impacts Summary: Fire, Crop Loss and More

International Activities

NDMC Launches Ranch Planning Tool

Serving Data to Order

Workshop Builds Drought Planning Community

Identifying Changes In Climatic Trends And The Fingerprints Of Landuse And Landcover Changes In The High Plains Of The Usa, Denis Mutiibwa

Department of Biological Systems Engineering: Dissertations and Theses

Human activities such as conversion of natural ecosystem to croplands and urban-centers, deforestation and afforestation impact biophysical properties of land surface such as albedo, energy balance, and surface roughness. Alterations in these properties affect the heat and moisture exchanges between the land surface and atmospheric boundary layer. The objectives of this research were; (i) to quantitatively identify the High plains’ regional climate change in temperatures over the period 1895 to 2006, (ii) detect the signatures of anthropogenic forcing of LULC changes on the regional climate change of the High Plains, and (iii) examine the trends in evolving regional latent heat …

Building An Enhanced Drought Early Warning System (Dews): Tools And Services For Decision Support, Mark Svoboda

2011 Symposium on Data-Driven Approaches to Droughts

Perhaps no other hazard lends itself as well to the need for a diligent early warning system (DEWS) than drought. Droughts typically evolve slowly, but have the potential to cover very large areas compared to hazards like hurricanes, tornadoes and floods, which have a much smaller geographic footprint. The U.S. took first steps in 2006 toward developing coordinated and integrated DEWS through the creation of the National Integrated Drought Information System, or NIDIS. More recently, the National Drought Mitigation Center (http://drought.unl.edu) has been working with NIDIS and other international parties (WMO, GEO, United Nations, etc.) with a goal of developing …

Analyzing Past And Predicting Future Drought With Comprehensive Drought Indices For Arkansas-Red River Basin, Lu Liu, Yang Hong, James E. Hocker

2011 Symposium on Data-Driven Approaches to Droughts

This study is intended to examine the past drought and predict future drought scenarios for Arkansas-Red River Basin with comprehensive drought indices ranging from meteorology, hydro-meteorology to hydrology. In this proceeding, we present some early results and analysis with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Historical climate data within the 1900-2009 timeframe were archived to derive the drought indices calculations. The projected A2, A1B climate data modules from 16 statistically downscaled Global Climate Models (GCM) were applied in drought occurrence frequency and affected area prediction. The results from the SPI and PDSI show that …

Building An Enhanced Drought Early Warning System (Dews): Tools And Services For Decision Support, Mark Svoboda

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Outline

• About the NDMC
• Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) Overview
• Tools (USDM, DIR, Atlas, VegDRI, + EPC/DRC)
• NDMC and the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)
• Toward a Global Drought Early Warning System (NIDIS)
• Toward a Global Drought Early Warning System (GDEWS)
• Summary
• Q&A

Exploring The Link Between Droughts And Atmospheric Aerosol Loading, Umarporn Charusombat, Dev Niyogi

2011 Symposium on Data-Driven Approaches to Droughts

Are higher atmospheric aerosol levels and droughts related? To address this question, we explore the relation between atmospheric aerosol loading and droughts using insitu and satellite observations over different urban/rural settings and heterogeneous drought conditions. A related objective was to report on the relationship and the variability between aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrieved from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and insitu particular matter (PM2.5 and PM10) over different land use. Daily measurement of PM2.5 and PM10 data were retrieved from seven EPA air quality monitoring stations in Indiana: Virgo, Lake and Clark County in urban area, Marion, Know and …

Monitoring Drought In The Midwest, Steve Hilberg

2011 Symposium on Data-Driven Approaches to Droughts

Climate monitoring is one component of the mission of the Regional Climate Centers, and the Midwestern Regional Climate Center (MRCC) has created web pages to provide near real-time monitoring of the weather and climate of the Midwest. A dedicated drought monitoring page was developed by the MRCC to provide a snapshot of current moisture conditions in the region using a number of specialized maps and products. Users are able to drill down to state and local conditions and impacts through links to the respective state climate offices and water resources agencies.