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Full-Text Articles in Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Process-Based Evaluation Of Stochastic Perturbed Parameterization Tendencies On Ensemble Forecasts Of Heavy Rainfall Events, Kevin Michael Lupo
Process-Based Evaluation Of Stochastic Perturbed Parameterization Tendencies On Ensemble Forecasts Of Heavy Rainfall Events, Kevin Michael Lupo
Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)
Stochastic model error schemes, such as the stochastic perturbed parameterization tendencies (SPPT) and independent SPPT (iSPPT) schemes, have become an increasingly utilized method to represent model error associated with uncertain subgrid-scale processes in ensemble prediction systems (EPSs). While much of the current literature focuses on how stochastic methods influence ensemble skill, relatively less attention is given to the processes by which these schemes lead to forecast variability. In this vein, this dissertation examines the physical processes by which the application of SPPT and iSPPT to the microphysics, planetary boundary layer (PBL), and radiation parameterization schemes yields rainfall forecast variability. These …
Extreme Typhoon Rainfall Of Taiwan, Alexa Henny
Extreme Typhoon Rainfall Of Taiwan, Alexa Henny
Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)
Taiwan has experienced large increases in extreme rainfall (ER, defined as top 1% by daily total) over the past 60 years. Using 1 km gridded daily rainfall data provided by the Taiwan Climate Change Projection and Adaptation Information Platform (TCCIP), we analyze Taiwan’s rainfall means and trends seasonally and as a function of intensity. ER accounts for about 17% of rainfall in Taiwan, but across much of the island, the 1960-2015 ER trend exceeds the non-extreme rainfall (NR) trend. Most ER occurs during the months of May – October, when warm, southwesterly monsoon flow and frequent typhoons lead to high …
Developing A Probabilistic Heavy-Rainfall Guidance Forecast Model For Great Lakes Cities, Cory Kevin Rothstein
Developing A Probabilistic Heavy-Rainfall Guidance Forecast Model For Great Lakes Cities, Cory Kevin Rothstein
Theses and Dissertations
A method for predicting the probability of exceeding specific warm-season (April-October) 0-24 hour precipitation thresholds is developed based upon daily maximums of meteorological parameters. North American Regional Reanalysis and Daily Unified Precipitation data from 2002-2017 were used to gather meteorological data for the Milwaukee and Chicago County Warning Areas. Individual artificial neural networks and multiple logistic regressions were conducted for daily rainfall thresholds above 0.5'', 1'', 1.5'' and 2'' to determine the probability of threshold exceedances for each County Warning Area. The most important parameters were 1000-500 hPa specific humidity, vertical velocities at various levels, high cloud cover, precipitable water …
A Diagnostic Metric For Predicting Tropical Cyclone And Mid-Latitude Floods, Jonathon Klepatzki, Shawn M. Milrad
A Diagnostic Metric For Predicting Tropical Cyclone And Mid-Latitude Floods, Jonathon Klepatzki, Shawn M. Milrad
Beyond: Undergraduate Research Journal
This study details a dynamic and thermodynamic metric (i.e., Extreme Flood Index [EFI]) designed to diagnose the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events associated with stagnant mid-latitude flow patterns (i.e., Rex blocks). As the global climate warms, rapid Arctic warming may be helping to slow the mid-latitude westerly jet stream, resulting in increased mid-latitude flow stagnation. The combination of long-duration ascent associated with easterly winds and warm moist air increases the severity of extreme precipitation events; as such, the EFI is specifically designed to detect this potent combination of ingredients. In 2013, a Rex block stalled a low-pressure system …
Global Projections Of Intense Tropical Cyclone Activity For The Late Twenty-First Century From Dynamical Downscaling Of Cmip5/Rcp4.5 Scenarios, Thomas R. Knutson, Joseph J. Sirutis, Ming Zhao, Robert E. Tuleya, Morris Bender, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Gabriele Villarini, Daniel Chavas
Global Projections Of Intense Tropical Cyclone Activity For The Late Twenty-First Century From Dynamical Downscaling Of Cmip5/Rcp4.5 Scenarios, Thomas R. Knutson, Joseph J. Sirutis, Ming Zhao, Robert E. Tuleya, Morris Bender, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Gabriele Villarini, Daniel Chavas
CCPO Publications
Global projections of intense tropical cyclone activity are derived from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM; 50-km grid) and the GFDL hurricane model using a two-stage downscaling procedure. First, tropical cyclone genesis is simulated globally using HiRAM. Each storm is then downscaled into the GFDL hurricane model, with horizontal grid spacing near the storm of 6 km, including ocean coupling (e.g., "cold wake" generation). Simulations are performed using observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) (1980-2008) for a "control run" with 20 repeating seasonal cycles and for a late-twenty-first-century projection using an altered SST seasonal cycle obtained …
Comparison And Validation Of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (Trmm) Rainfall Algorithms In Tropical Cyclones, Joseph P. Zagrodnik
Comparison And Validation Of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (Trmm) Rainfall Algorithms In Tropical Cyclones, Joseph P. Zagrodnik
FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) rainfall retrieval algorithms are evaluated in tropical cyclones (TCs). Differences between the Precipitation Radar (PR) and TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) retrievals are found to be related to the storm region (inner core vs. rainbands) and the convective nature of the precipitation as measured by radar reflectivity and ice scattering signature. In landfalling TCs, the algorithms perform differently depending on whether the rainfall is located over ocean, land, or coastal surfaces. Various statistical techniques are applied to quantify these differences and identify the discrepancies in rainfall detection and intensity. Ground validation is accomplished by comparing the …
Rainfall And Streamflow Variability In Ghana, Michael Mawutor Tanu
Rainfall And Streamflow Variability In Ghana, Michael Mawutor Tanu
Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)
The objective of this research is to investigate the variability of rainfall and streamflow over Ghana. Analyses of rainfall shows larger daily variability and maxima amounts in the southern coastal belt than in either the middle or northern parts of the country. The high variability in rainfall at the coast is associated with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) changes over the Guinea coast. This is related to the evolution of the cold tongue over the Atlantic during the rainfall season. The results indicate that the extreme rainfall events occur as single events, but there are occasions when they occur sequentially, and …
Role Of Equatorial Waves In Tropical Cyclogenesis, Carl J. Schreck, Iii
Role Of Equatorial Waves In Tropical Cyclogenesis, Carl J. Schreck, Iii
Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)
Tropical cyclones typically form within preexisting wavelike disturbances that couple with convection. Using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) multisatellite rainfall estimates, this study determines the relative number of tropical cyclones that can be attributed to various wave types, including the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), Kelvin waves, equatorial Rossby (ER) waves, mixed Rossby-gravity (MRG) waves, and tropical depression (TD)-type disturbances. Tropical cyclogenesis is attributed to an equatorial wave's convection when the filtered rainfall anomaly exceeds a threshold value at the genesis location.
Extreme Rainfall In Texas: Patterns And Predictability, John W. Nielsen-Gammon, Fuqing Zhang, Andrew M. Odins, Boksoon Myoung
Extreme Rainfall In Texas: Patterns And Predictability, John W. Nielsen-Gammon, Fuqing Zhang, Andrew M. Odins, Boksoon Myoung
Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research
Extreme rainfall, with storm total precipitation exceeding 500 mm, occurs several times per decade in Texas. According to a compositing analysis, the large-scale weather patterns associated with extreme rainfall events involve a northward deflection of the tropical trade winds into Texas, with deep southerly winds extending into the middle troposphere. One such event, the July 2002 South-Central Texas flood, is examined in detail. This particular event was associated with a stationary upper-level trough over central Texas and northern Mexico that established a steady influx of tropical moisture from the south. While the onset of the event was triggered by destabilization …
Comparison Between Analytical Probabilistic And Computer Simulation Models, Using Current Design Examples, Barry A. Palynchuk Phd
Comparison Between Analytical Probabilistic And Computer Simulation Models, Using Current Design Examples, Barry A. Palynchuk Phd
Barry A. Palynchuk PhD
Closed form analytical expressions have been developed to solve several basic problems related to the hydrologic design of storm water management facilities. The collection of these analytical expressions is referred to as the Analytical Probabilistic Storm Water Models (APSWM). APSWM can be used as an alternative to the design storm simulation models in the design and analysis of storm water management facilities. In this paper, a comparison is made between APSWM and design storm simulation models as applied to an actual design case. Conventional outputs such as runoff volume, peak discharge, and peak discharge from detention ponds are reviewed and …