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Time Series Analysis Of Stochastic Networks With Correlated Random Arcs, Brendon T. Sands

Theses and Dissertations

While modern day weather forecasting is not perfect, there are many benefits given by the multitude and variety of predictive models. In the interest of routing airplanes, this paper uses time series analysis on successive weather forecasts to predict the optimal path and fuel burn of wind-based, fuel-burn networks with stochastic correlated arcs. Networks are populated with either deterministic or ensemble-based weather data, and the two data sources with and without time series analysis are compared. Methods were compared by fuel burn prediction accuracy and ability to predict a future optimal path. Of the four options, the ensemble-based methods were …