Mathematics Commons^™

A Change-Point Analysis Of Air Pollution Levels In Silao, Mexico And Fresno, California, Rachael Goodwin

WWU Honors College Senior Projects

We analyzed PM10 levels in the city of Silao, Mexico, as well as PM2.5 and PM10 levels in Fresno, California to determine if there was a shift in air pollution levels in either location. A change point based analysis was used to determine if there was a shift in air pollution levels. In the city of Silao, there was a significant increase in PM10 levels, but there was no significant change in Fresno for either pollutant.

Realtime Event Detection In Sports Sensor Data With Machine Learning, Mallory Cashman

Honors Theses and Capstones

Machine learning models can be trained to classify time series based sports motion data, without reliance on assumptions about the capabilities of the users or sensors. This can be applied to predict the count of occurrences of an event in a time period. The experiment for this research uses lacrosse data, collected in partnership with SPAITR - a UNH undergraduate startup developing motion tracking devices for lacrosse. Decision Tree and Support Vector Machine (SVM) models are trained and perform with high success rates. These models improve upon previous work in human motion event detection and can be used a reference …

Estimating The Statistics Of Operational Loss Through The Analyzation Of A Time Series, Maurice L. Brown

Theses and Dissertations

In the world of finance, appropriately understanding risk is key to success or failure because it is a fundamental driver for institutional behavior. Here we focus on risk as it relates to the operations of financial institutions, namely operational risk. Quantifying operational risk begins with data in the form of a time series of realized losses, which can occur for a number of reasons, can vary over different time intervals, and can pose a challenge that is exacerbated by having to account for both frequency and severity of losses. We introduce a stochastic point process model for the frequency distribution …

Forecasting Crashes, Credit Card Default, And Imputation Analysis On Missing Values By The Use Of Neural Networks, Jazmin Quezada

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

A neural network is a system of hardware and/or software patterned after the operation of neurons in the human brain. Neural networks,- also called Artificial Neural Networks - are a variety of deep learning technology, which also falls under the umbrella of artificial intelligence, or AI. Recent studies shows that Artificial Neural Network has the highest coefficient of determination (i.e. measure to assess how well a model explains and predicts future outcomes.) in comparison to the K-nearest neighbor classifiers, logistic regression, discriminant analysis, naive Bayesian classifier, and classification trees. In this work, the theoretical description of the neural network methodology …

Regime Switching In Cointegrated Time Series, Bradley David Zynda Ii

Undergraduate Honors Capstone Projects

Volatile commodities and markets can often be difficult to model and forecast given significant breaks in trends through time. To account such breaks, regime switching methods allow for models to accommodate abrupt changes in behavior of the data. However, the difficulty often arises in beginning the process of choosing a model and its associated parameters with which to represent the data and the objects of interest. To improve model selection for these volatile markets, this research examines time series with regime switching components and argues that a synthesis of vector error correction models with regime switching models with ameliorate financial …

Key Factors Driving Personnel Downsizing In Multinational Military Organizations, Ilksen Gorkem, Resit Unal, Pilar Pazos

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

Although downsizing has long been a topic of research in traditional organizations, there are very few studies of this phenomenon in military contexts. As a result, we have little understanding of the key factors that drive personnel downsizing in military setting. This study contributes to our understanding of key factors that drive personnel downsizing in military organizations and whether those factors may differ across NATO nations’ cultural clusters. The theoretical framework for this study was built from studies in non-military contexts and adapted to fit the military environment.

This research relies on historical data from one of the largest multinational …

A Comparison Of Prediction Methods Of Functional Autoregressive Time Series, Devin Didericksen

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

Functional data analysis (FDA) is a relatively new branch of statistics that has seen a lot of expansion recently. With the advent of computer processing power and more efficient software packages we have entered the beginning stages of applying FDA methodology and techniques to data. Part of this undertaking should include an empirical assessment of the effectiveness of some of the tools of FDA, which are sound on theoretical grounds. In a small way, this project helps advance this objective.

This work begins by introducing FDA, scalar prediction techniques, and the functional autoregressive model of order one - FAR(1). Two …