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Statistics and Probability

Olusegun Michael Otunuga

2019

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Full-Text Articles in Mathematics

Closed-Form Probability Distribution Of Number Of Infections At A Given Time In A Stochastic Sis Epidemic Model.Pdf, Michael Otunuga Sep 2019

Closed-Form Probability Distribution Of Number Of Infections At A Given Time In A Stochastic Sis Epidemic Model.Pdf, Michael Otunuga

Olusegun Michael Otunuga

We study the effects of external fluctuations in the transmission rate of certain diseases and how these affect the distribution of the number of infected individuals over time. To do this, we introduce random noise in the transmission rate in a deterministic SIS model and study how the number of infections changes over time. The objective of this work is to derive and analyze the closed form probability distribution of the number of infections at a given time in the resulting stochastic SIS epidemic model. Using the Fokker-Planck equation, we reduce the differential equation governing the number of infections to …

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Stochastic Modeling And Analysis Of Energy Commodity Spot Price Processes, Olusegun Michael Otunuga Feb 2019

Stochastic Modeling And Analysis Of Energy Commodity Spot Price Processes, Olusegun Michael Otunuga

Olusegun Michael Otunuga

Supply and demand in the World oil market are balanced through responses to price movement with considerable complexity in the evolution of underlying supply-demand

expectation process. In order to be able to understand the price balancing process, it is important to know the economic forces and the behavior of energy commodity spot price processes. The relationship between the different energy sources and its utility together with uncertainty also play a role in many important energy issues.

The qualitative and quantitative behavior of energy commodities in which the trend in price of one commodity coincides with the trend in price of …

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Local Lagged Adapted Generalized Method Of Moments: An Innovative Estimation And Forecasting Approach And Its Applications.Pdf, Olusegun M. Otunuga Jan 2019

Local Lagged Adapted Generalized Method Of Moments: An Innovative Estimation And Forecasting Approach And Its Applications.Pdf, Olusegun M. Otunuga

Olusegun Michael Otunuga

In this work, an attempt is made to apply the Local Lagged Adapted Generalized Method of Moments (LLGMM) to estimate state and parameters in stochastic differential dynamic models. The development of LLGMM is motivated by parameter and state estimation problems in continuous-time nonlinear and non-stationary stochastic dynamic model validation problems in biological, chemical, engineering, energy commodity markets, financial, medical, physical and social sciences. The byproducts of this innovative approach (LLGMM) are the balance between model specification and model prescription of continuous-time dynamic process and the development of discrete-time interconnected dynamic model of local sample mean and variance statistic process (DTIDMLSMVSP). …

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