Mathematics Commons^™

Analysis Of Intermittence And Log-Periodicity Of Foreign Exchange Rates Near A Crash, Arturo Casillas

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

Many believe that financial indices near a crash exhibit a type of critical point characterized by log-periodic signatures. Models have been developed based on these ideas in an attempt to mathematically characterize financial data about to crash. Few of these models consider the property of intermittency. Intermittency is a concept borrowed from fluid dynamics that essentially implies that a system alternates between a stable, or predictable, state and unstable state. One model that attempts to characterize crashes incorporates intermittency in the form of log-stationary intervals. It models the asset price as a step function that follows an underlying power law. …